▼

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

2010 WCQ: A quick look at the pots (II)

Take a look at the table below to see how the pots shape up before the last matchday. Only the values for the first 13 countries and Poland are 99% correct (I would say 100% correct, but you never know), being based on official data released by FIFA (Lusankya managed to find the document on the German version of FIFA.com -> pdf file). The other values are computed using historical rankings, different from the ones used by FIFA. For more info, read this. But they're pretty close to the official values (the error should be less than 3,4%) and will help you see what pot your country will end up in.

The third column contains the number of points after the November 20th matches.

I did a bit of reverse engineering - starting from the points gained in each match for the top 20 countries (according to the official data) and calculating the actual (not historical) ranking used by FIFA. Then I used these rankings to perform the calculations for the other countries.

 R Country                  L    D    W
-----------------------------------------
 1 Italy              1537 1461 1473 1498
 2 Germany            1321 1267 1296 1355
 3 Spain              1309 1247 1281 1349
 4 Portugal           1258 1208 1241 1306
 5 France             1251 1206 1243 1318
 6 Czech Republic     1250 1183 1219 1290
 7 Netherlands        1217 1170 1192 1236
 8 England            1151 1113 1152 1231
 9 Greece             1065 1010 1045 1114
-----------------------------------------
10 Romania            1055 1007 1034 1088
11 Croatia            1054 1000 1043 1129
12 Scotland            990  990  990  990
13 Russia              870  824  836  861
14 Turkey              856  819  851  914
15 Poland              854  824  855  916
16 Northern Ireland    842  784  838  946
17 Bulgaria            841  794  823  879
18 Serbia              840  792  842  942
-----------------------------------------
19 Norway              835  788  802  831
20 Sweden              826  803  823  864
21 Israel              806  764  792  849
22 Ukraine             789  766  811  900
23 Ireland             739  739  739  739
24 Denmark             737  711  736  786
25 Finland             693  651  699  795
26 Switzerland         663  663  663  663
27 Bosnia-Herzegovina  622  578  625  721
-----------------------------------------
28 Hungary             612  581  619  697
29 Macedonia           589  555  600  691
30 Slovakia            578  560  571  592
31 Moldova             573  573  573  573
32 Belgium             564  532  553  595
33 Wales               540  513  553  634
34 Cyprus              529  502  545  632
35 Lithuania           478  454  483  542
36 Belarus             438  420  464  552
-----------------------------------------
37 Georgia             431  407  430  475
38 Albania             419  397  439  525
39 Slovenia            416  396  433  509
40 Latvia              413  392  428  502
41 Iceland             413  384  432  527
42 Armenia             396  370  387  419
43 Austria             352  341  354  378
44 Azerbaijan          262  248  274  326
45 Liechtenstein       261  261  261  261
-----------------------------------------
46 Kazakhstan          249  239  257  294
47 Estonia             225  225  225  225
48 Malta               192  185  223  297
49 Luxembourg          127  127  127  127
50 Montenegro           65  65    65   65
51 Andorra              60  59   110  212
52 Faroe Islands        13  13    75  198
53 San Marino            6   6    48  131


Hats off to Sport365.ro , Sport1.bg, B92.net, NogoNet.com and Sportal.bg - the only websites using info from my blog and actually mentioning the source.

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

on

7 comments:

  1. AnonymousNovember 21, 2007 at 11:59 AM

    Hi Lucian Marin!
    I'm from Sofia, i read the article leading to your blog post.
    Very nice post.. By the way, i was interested, because of the outcome, that we have chances to get into/remain in the pot 2 for the draw on the 25.th November..
    To be honest with you, we performed very very bad lately, so i could not believe my eyes, as i saw the ranking :)))

    I want to wish Romaina great success on the EURO finals. All the unpleasant things that were written in papers were a very lousy journailst fluff.
    I will 100% support Romania on EURO08. :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. EdgarNovember 21, 2007 at 12:02 PM

    Hi Yosif!

    Lucian Marin is the guy who wrote the "Journalist" theme for Wordpress, ported to Blogger by Thur Broeders. But that's an honest mistake :)
    Thank you for your nice words and best of luck to your team!

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousNovember 21, 2007 at 12:56 PM

    Hi again Edgar. Sorry for the confusion, i though Lucian is the blogger's name :)

    I read you're saying that the data about the countries after Poland in the current ranking are not so detailed calculated like the others. How many points could the states differ from what's given in the table now? As you may imagine this is crucial for out team :DDD

    ReplyDelete
  4. EdgarNovember 21, 2007 at 1:16 PM

    The greatest relative difference in October between my calculations and the totals published by FIFA was 3.4% - for Austria, followed by Andorra - 3.28% and Serbia - 2,93%.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousNovember 21, 2007 at 1:18 PM

    Hi Edgar, thanks for your great work! Really interesting.

    Seems that my country (Norway) gave up the chance to be in pot two as well with their choking against Turkey :( Then again, pot 2 and pot 3 seem pretty even to me, so it should not make that much difference.

    ReplyDelete
  6. AnonymousNovember 21, 2007 at 1:52 PM

    hey Edgard, just to tell u that a newspaper from Macedonia is into your blog ;)

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousNovember 21, 2007 at 10:41 PM

    Romania will win !!!!

    ReplyDelete