Confirmed - sort of... See the update.
21 May 2008
The coefficient system was changed by UEFA: link.
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There are 14 places available and 51 teams.
Regarding the format, here's some food for thought:
1. Platini doesn't like groups of seven and eight teams.
"I wasn't really happy with the format for the last qualifying competition with groups of seven and eight teams" said UEFA President Michel Platini.
2. UEFA tends to move towards groups with five or six teams. That's the format used for U21 qualifiers. See the regulations of the U21 championships:
Article 7.02:
The number of teams per group should not, in principle, be less then five or more than six.
3. With more groups, the differences among teams from one pot can be significant.
4. FAs don't really like the "worst second place stays home" scenario.
We might see six groups of six teams and three of five teams. The winners and best runners-up would qualify directly, while the rest of the second placed teams would go to a play-off.
Of course, there could be 9 groups of 5 teams and one of 6 teams, but in this case the two worst second place teams would miss the play-offs. I don't see it happening.
At the moment, UEFA's ranking for national teams is under review, but using the usual point average method, here's how the pots would look like (for Switzerland and Austria I used average from the 2006 WCQ - yes, I know it will not be used, but it helps to get a clearer picture):
Column order:
Rank - Country - PPG - Average goal difference - Average goals scored
1 Greece 2.583 1.250 2.083
2 Czech Republic 2.417 1.833 2.250
3 Croatia 2.417 1.667 2.333
4 Romania 2.417 1.583 2.167
5 Italy 2.417 1.083 1.833
6 Spain 2.333 1.250 1.917
7 Germany 2.250 2.333 2.917
8 France 2.167 1.667 2.083
9 Sweden 2.167 1.167 1.917
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10 Netherlands 2.167 0.833 1.250
11 Bulgaria 2.083 0.917 1.500
12 Turkey 2.000 1.167 2.083
13 Russia 2.000 0.917 1.500
14 Scotland 2.000 0.750 1.750
15 Portugal 1.929 1.000 1.714
16 England 1.917 1.417 2.000
17 Norway 1.917 1.333 2.250
18 Israel 1.917 0.667 1.667
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19 Switzerland 1.800 1.100 1.800
20 Serbia 1.714 0.786 1.571
21 Finland 1.714 0.429 0.929
22 Denmark 1.667 0.833 1.750
23 Northern Ireland 1.667 0.250 1.417
24 Austria 1.500 0.300 1.500
25 Ireland 1.417 0.250 1.417
26 Slovakia 1.333 0.833 2.750
27 Lithuania 1.333 -0.167 0.917
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28 Belgium 1.286 -0.143 1.000
29 Wales 1.250 -0.083 1.500
30 Macedonia 1.167 0.000 1.000
31 Cyprus 1.167 -0.583 1.417
32 Belarus 1.083 -0.500 1.417
33 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1.083 -0.500 1.333
34 Latvia 1.000 -0.167 1.250
35 Moldova 1.000 -0.583 1.000
36 Hungary 1.000 -0.917 0.917
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37 Albania 0.917 -0.500 1.000
38 Slovenia 0.917 -0.583 0.750
39 Georgia 0.833 -0.250 1.333
40 Armenia 0.750 -0.750 0.333
41 Kazakhstan 0.714 -0.714 0.786
42 Iceland 0.667 -1.417 0.833
43 Estonia 0.583 -1.333 0.417
44 Liechtenstein 0.583 -1.917 0.750
45 Malta 0.417 -1.750 0.833
----------------------------------------
46 Azerbaijan 0.417 -1.833 0.500
47 Luxembourg 0.250 -1.750 0.167
48 Faroe Islands 0.000 -3.250 0.333
49 Andorra 0.000 -3.333 0.167
50 San Marino 0.000 -4.583 0.167
51 Montenegro
What do the 3 columns mean?
ReplyDeletethe only Macedonian sports newspaper Makedonski Sport, a day before the official FIFA coefs were published, they published the same coefs like u did, I think they stole them from u since they also had mistaken Liechtenstein and Azerbaijan :))))
ReplyDelete@amir
ReplyDeletePPG, average goal difference, average goals scored.
@Harry Potter XT
It happens :)