FRF a purtat tratative cu Suedia pentru perfectarea unui amical. Din nefericire, suedezii vor intalni Brazilia pentru a sarbatori 50 de ani de la finala CM 1958, editie gazduita de Suedia si castigata de Brazilia cu 5 - 2. Mircea Sandu a precizat ca pe 26 martie vom intalni o echipa nordica.
Mai sunt 25 de tari din top 50 FIFA care inca nu si-au programat un amical pe 26 martie: Croatia (10), Grecia (11), Scotia (14), Columbia (17), Bulgaria (18), SUA (19), Nigeria (20), Paraguay (21), Rusia (22), Polonia (23), Camerun (24), Israel (26), Uruguay (27), Norvegia (28), Irlanda de Nord (32), Guinea (33), Irlanda (35), Finlanda (36), Cote d'Ivoire (37), Senegal (38), Maroc (39), Ghana (43), Chile (45), Mali (46), Tunisia (47).
Ce echipe nordice sunt in lista? Norvegia si Finlanda. Islanda deja si-a programat un amical pe 26 martie, impotriva Slovaciei. Bineinteles, am putea intalni Insulele Feroe...
Monday, December 17, 2007
Friday, December 14, 2007
Din 2012, o singura serie in Liga a II-a
Sursa: Sport365.
"Se preconizează o reformare a eşaloanelor doi şi trei, astfel ca liga a treia să ajungă în sezonul 2009-2010 să aibă patru serii de câte 18-20 de echipe, iar liga a doua din 2012 să aibă o singură serie, de 18-20 de echipe."
"Se preconizează o reformare a eşaloanelor doi şi trei, astfel ca liga a treia să ajungă în sezonul 2009-2010 să aibă patru serii de câte 18-20 de echipe, iar liga a doua din 2012 să aibă o singură serie, de 18-20 de echipe."
Friday, December 7, 2007
Cupa Romaniei "Timisoreana" 2007/2008: Urnele pentru sferturi
Rezultate: Sport365.
Urna 1: Dinamo Bucuresti, CFR Cluj, Rapid Bucuresti
Urna 2 : Unirea Urziceni, Pandurii Targu Jiu, Gloria Buzau, Dacia Mioveni
Urna 3: FC Brasov
Meciurile din sferturi vor avea loc pe 27 februarie 2008, pe teren neutru. FRF nu a anuntat cand va avea loc tragerea la sorti.
Urna 1: Dinamo Bucuresti, CFR Cluj, Rapid Bucuresti
Urna 2 : Unirea Urziceni, Pandurii Targu Jiu, Gloria Buzau, Dacia Mioveni
Urna 3: FC Brasov
Meciurile din sferturi vor avea loc pe 27 februarie 2008, pe teren neutru. FRF nu a anuntat cand va avea loc tragerea la sorti.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
CM 2010 - capi de serie (Noiembrie 2007)
Repartizarea locurilor pentru CM 2010:
Tara gazda: Africa de Sud
AFC: 4,5
CAF: 5
CONCACAF: 3,5
CONMEBOL: 4,5
OFC: 0,5
UEFA: 13
Meciurile de baraj: AFC - OFC si CONCACAF - CONMEBOL
Presupunand ca echipele mai bine clasate in clasamentul FIFA se vor califica la turneul final din Africa de Sud, iata cum ar arata clasamentul capilor de serie:
Anglia si Portugalia sunt la egalitate, dar Anglia are un punctaj mai bun pentru performantele obtinute la CM 2002 si CM 2006.
Urnele pentru tragerea la sorti ar arata astfel (conform sistemului folosit pentru CM 2006):
Urna 1: Africa de Sud, Anglia, Argentina, Brazilia, Franta, Germania, Italia, Spania
Urna 2: Cehia, Croatia, Grecia, Olanda, Portugalia, Romania, Scotia, Turcia
Urna 3: Arabia Saudita, Australia, Coreea de Sud, Honduras, Iran, Japonia, Mexic, SUA
Urna 4: Camerun, Columbia, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Nigeria, Paraguay, Senegal, Uruguay
O posibila tragere la sorti:
Grupa A: Africa de Sud, Grecia, Coreea de Sud, Paraguay
Grupa B : Franta, Scotia, SUA, Nigeria
Grupa C: Anglia, Cehia, Japonia, Uruguay
Grupa D: Brazilia, Olanda, Arabia Saudita, Camerun
Grupa E: Germania, Croatia, Mexic, Columbia
Grupa F: Italia, Portugalia, Iran, Guinea
Grupa G: Spania, Romania, Australia, Senegal
Grupa H: Argentina, Turcia, Honduras, Cote d'Ivoire
Daca FIFA ar folosi clasamentul capilor de serie pentru a stabili toate cele patru urne, iata care ar fi situatia:
Urna 1: Africa de Sud, Anglia, Argentina, Brazilia, Franta, Germania, Italia, Spania
Urna 2: Cehia, Croatia, Mexic, Olanda, Paraguay, Portugalia, SUA, Turcia
Urna 3: Columbia, Coreea de Sud, Grecia, Japonia, Nigeria, Romania, Scotia, Senegal
Urna 4: Arabia Saudita, Australia, Camerun, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Honduras, Iran, Uruguay
O posibila tragere la sorti:
Grupa A: Africa de Sud, SUA, Grecia, Australia
Grupa B: Brazilia, Turcia, Nigeria, Arabia Saudita
Grupa C: Anglia, Olanda, Coreea de Sud, Cote d'Ivoire
Grupa D: Argentina, Croatia, Romania, Guinea
Grupa E: Germania, Cehia, Columbia, Camerun
Grupa F: Italia, Portugalia, Japonia, Honduras
Grupa G: Spania, Paraguay, Scotia, Iran
Grupa H: Franta, Mexic, Senegal, Uruguay
Tara gazda: Africa de Sud
AFC: 4,5
CAF: 5
CONCACAF: 3,5
CONMEBOL: 4,5
OFC: 0,5
UEFA: 13
Meciurile de baraj: AFC - OFC si CONCACAF - CONMEBOL
Presupunand ca echipele mai bine clasate in clasamentul FIFA se vor califica la turneul final din Africa de Sud, iata cum ar arata clasamentul capilor de serie:
1 Brazilia 60.3 29.3 31
2 Germania 58.3 30.3 28
3 Italia 57.3 27.3 30
4 Spania 54.3 25.3 29
5 Argentina 53.0 21.0 32
6 Franta 49.3 23.3 26
7 Anglia 47.3 26.3 21
- Portugalia 47.3 22.3 25
9 Olanda 38.7 14.7 24
10 Mexic 37.3 19.3 18
11 Cehia 33.0 6.0 27
12 Croatia 32.0 9.0 23
13 SUA 28.7 13.7 15
14 Turcia 27.0 10.0 17
15 Paraguay 24.7 11.7 13
16 Japonia 23.3 13.3 10
17 Grecia 22.0 0.0 22
18 Coreea de Sud 20.7 15.7 5
19 Romania 20.0 0.0 20
20 Scotia 19.0 0.0 19
21 Nigeria 16.7 2.7 14
22 Columbia 16.0 0.0 16
23 Senegal 15.7 8.7 7
24 Australia 15.3 11.3 4
25 Camerun 15.0 3.0 12
26 Cote d'Ivoire 14.0 6.0 8
27 Uruguay 13.7 2.7 11
28 Iran 11.3 5.3 6
29 Arabia Saudita 10.0 8.0 2
30 Guinea 9.0 0.0 9
31 Africa de Sud 4.0 3.0 1
32 Honduras 3.0 0.0 3
Anglia si Portugalia sunt la egalitate, dar Anglia are un punctaj mai bun pentru performantele obtinute la CM 2002 si CM 2006.
Urnele pentru tragerea la sorti ar arata astfel (conform sistemului folosit pentru CM 2006):
Urna 1: Africa de Sud, Anglia, Argentina, Brazilia, Franta, Germania, Italia, Spania
Urna 2: Cehia, Croatia, Grecia, Olanda, Portugalia, Romania, Scotia, Turcia
Urna 3: Arabia Saudita, Australia, Coreea de Sud, Honduras, Iran, Japonia, Mexic, SUA
Urna 4: Camerun, Columbia, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Nigeria, Paraguay, Senegal, Uruguay
O posibila tragere la sorti:
Grupa A: Africa de Sud, Grecia, Coreea de Sud, Paraguay
Grupa B : Franta, Scotia, SUA, Nigeria
Grupa C: Anglia, Cehia, Japonia, Uruguay
Grupa D: Brazilia, Olanda, Arabia Saudita, Camerun
Grupa E: Germania, Croatia, Mexic, Columbia
Grupa F: Italia, Portugalia, Iran, Guinea
Grupa G: Spania, Romania, Australia, Senegal
Grupa H: Argentina, Turcia, Honduras, Cote d'Ivoire
Daca FIFA ar folosi clasamentul capilor de serie pentru a stabili toate cele patru urne, iata care ar fi situatia:
Urna 1: Africa de Sud, Anglia, Argentina, Brazilia, Franta, Germania, Italia, Spania
Urna 2: Cehia, Croatia, Mexic, Olanda, Paraguay, Portugalia, SUA, Turcia
Urna 3: Columbia, Coreea de Sud, Grecia, Japonia, Nigeria, Romania, Scotia, Senegal
Urna 4: Arabia Saudita, Australia, Camerun, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Honduras, Iran, Uruguay
O posibila tragere la sorti:
Grupa A: Africa de Sud, SUA, Grecia, Australia
Grupa B: Brazilia, Turcia, Nigeria, Arabia Saudita
Grupa C: Anglia, Olanda, Coreea de Sud, Cote d'Ivoire
Grupa D: Argentina, Croatia, Romania, Guinea
Grupa E: Germania, Cehia, Columbia, Camerun
Grupa F: Italia, Portugalia, Japonia, Honduras
Grupa G: Spania, Paraguay, Scotia, Iran
Grupa H: Franta, Mexic, Senegal, Uruguay
Monday, December 3, 2007
26 martie 2008: Cu cine joaca Romania un amical?
Conditii:
* echipa din top 50 FIFA
* nu e in grupa cu Romania la EURO 2008 sau in preliminariile CM 2010
* nu a intalnit Romania in ultimii cinci ani
* nu are amical programat pentru 26 martie 2008
21 de tari: Argentina (1), Brazilia (2), Croatia (10), Grecia (11), SUA (19), Paraguay (21), Rusia (22), Polonia (23), Suedia (24), Camerun (24), Guinea (33), Senegal (38), Maroc (39), Iran (40), Egipt (41), Coreea de Sud (42), Ghana (43), Chile (45), Mali (46), Tunisia (47), Australia (48)
Brazilia si Suedia sunt deja in discutii pentru un amical.
Dintre tarile calificate la EURO 2008, sunt disponibile doar 5: Croatia, Grecia, Rusia, Polonia si Suedia.
Mircea Sandu a declarat intr-un interviu ca incearca sa aranjeze un amical cu Argentina, dar ramane de vazut daca poate face rost de suma ceruta de sud-americani: 1 milion de euro. Victor Piturca a spus pe 21 noiembrie 2007 dupa meciul cu Albania (6 - 1): "Ionut Lupescu mi-a spus de un amical cu Argentina, dar eu nu-mi doresc asta, pentru ca nu vreau la EURO echipe cu stil de joc ca al Argentinei". De atunci a trecut ceva vreme si poate selectionerul Romaniei si-a schimbat parerea.
Daca renuntam la conditia "nu a intalnit Romania in ultimii 5 ani", se mai adauga 13 tari: Scotia (14), Columbia (17), Bulgaria (18), Nigeria (20), Israel (26), Uruguay (27), Norvegia (28), Irlanda de Nord (32), Japonia (33), Irlanda (35), Finlanda (36), Cote d'Ivoire (37), Slovacia (50).
14 Scotia
31.03.2004 Glasgow Scotia - Romania 1 - 2 (Amical)
17 Columbia
27.05.2006 Chicago Romania - Columbia 0 - 0 (Amical)
18 Bulgaria
02.09.2006 Constanta Romania - Bulgaria 2 - 2 (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
17.11.2007 Sofia Bulgaria - Romania 1 - 0 (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
20 Nigeria
16.11.2005 Bucuresti Romania - Nigeria 3 - 0 (Amical)
26 Israel
06.02.2008 Ramat Gan Israel - Romania (Amical)
27 Uruguay
23.05.2006 Los Angeles Romania - Uruguay 0 - 2 (Amical)
28 Norvegia
11.06.2003 Oslo Norvegia - Romania 1 - 1 (Preliminarii EURO 2004)
32 Irlanda de Nord
26.05.2006 Chicago Romania - Irlanda de Nord 2 - 0 (Amical)
33 Japonia
11.10.2003 Bucuresti Romania - Japonia 1 - 1 (Amical)
35 Irlanda
27.05.2004 Dublin Irlanda - Romania 1 - 0 (Amical)
36 Finlanda
18.08.2004 Bucuresti Romania - Finlanda 2 - 1 (Preliminarii CM 2006)
08.10.2005 Helsinki Finlanda - Romania 0 - 1 (Preliminarii CM 2006)
37 Cote d'Ivoire
12.11.2005 Le Mans Romania - Cote d'Ivoire 1 - 2 (Amical)
50 Slovacia
09.02.2005 Larnaca Romania - Slovacia 2 - 2 (Amical)
Sa speram ca FRF va alege repede si bine! In opinia mea, cel mai bine ar fi sa intalnim Argentina in martie, iar inaintea turneului final sa mai avem cateva meciuri tari cu adversari ca Spania, Portugalia, Cehia sau Croatia.
* echipa din top 50 FIFA
* nu e in grupa cu Romania la EURO 2008 sau in preliminariile CM 2010
* nu a intalnit Romania in ultimii cinci ani
* nu are amical programat pentru 26 martie 2008
21 de tari: Argentina (1), Brazilia (2), Croatia (10), Grecia (11), SUA (19), Paraguay (21), Rusia (22), Polonia (23), Suedia (24), Camerun (24), Guinea (33), Senegal (38), Maroc (39), Iran (40), Egipt (41), Coreea de Sud (42), Ghana (43), Chile (45), Mali (46), Tunisia (47), Australia (48)
Brazilia si Suedia sunt deja in discutii pentru un amical.
Dintre tarile calificate la EURO 2008, sunt disponibile doar 5: Croatia, Grecia, Rusia, Polonia si Suedia.
Mircea Sandu a declarat intr-un interviu ca incearca sa aranjeze un amical cu Argentina, dar ramane de vazut daca poate face rost de suma ceruta de sud-americani: 1 milion de euro. Victor Piturca a spus pe 21 noiembrie 2007 dupa meciul cu Albania (6 - 1): "Ionut Lupescu mi-a spus de un amical cu Argentina, dar eu nu-mi doresc asta, pentru ca nu vreau la EURO echipe cu stil de joc ca al Argentinei". De atunci a trecut ceva vreme si poate selectionerul Romaniei si-a schimbat parerea.
Daca renuntam la conditia "nu a intalnit Romania in ultimii 5 ani", se mai adauga 13 tari: Scotia (14), Columbia (17), Bulgaria (18), Nigeria (20), Israel (26), Uruguay (27), Norvegia (28), Irlanda de Nord (32), Japonia (33), Irlanda (35), Finlanda (36), Cote d'Ivoire (37), Slovacia (50).
14 Scotia
31.03.2004 Glasgow Scotia - Romania 1 - 2 (Amical)
17 Columbia
27.05.2006 Chicago Romania - Columbia 0 - 0 (Amical)
18 Bulgaria
02.09.2006 Constanta Romania - Bulgaria 2 - 2 (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
17.11.2007 Sofia Bulgaria - Romania 1 - 0 (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
20 Nigeria
16.11.2005 Bucuresti Romania - Nigeria 3 - 0 (Amical)
26 Israel
06.02.2008 Ramat Gan Israel - Romania (Amical)
27 Uruguay
23.05.2006 Los Angeles Romania - Uruguay 0 - 2 (Amical)
28 Norvegia
11.06.2003 Oslo Norvegia - Romania 1 - 1 (Preliminarii EURO 2004)
32 Irlanda de Nord
26.05.2006 Chicago Romania - Irlanda de Nord 2 - 0 (Amical)
33 Japonia
11.10.2003 Bucuresti Romania - Japonia 1 - 1 (Amical)
35 Irlanda
27.05.2004 Dublin Irlanda - Romania 1 - 0 (Amical)
36 Finlanda
18.08.2004 Bucuresti Romania - Finlanda 2 - 1 (Preliminarii CM 2006)
08.10.2005 Helsinki Finlanda - Romania 0 - 1 (Preliminarii CM 2006)
37 Cote d'Ivoire
12.11.2005 Le Mans Romania - Cote d'Ivoire 1 - 2 (Amical)
50 Slovacia
09.02.2005 Larnaca Romania - Slovacia 2 - 2 (Amical)
Sa speram ca FRF va alege repede si bine! In opinia mea, cel mai bine ar fi sa intalnim Argentina in martie, iar inaintea turneului final sa mai avem cateva meciuri tari cu adversari ca Spania, Portugalia, Cehia sau Croatia.
Wednesday, November 28, 2007
Liga a II-a: Sezonul 2008-2009 (28 noiembrie 2007)
Iata cum ar arata Liga a II-a in sezonul viitor:
Seria I
Farul Constanta
Concordia Chiajna
Delta Tulcea
FC Botosani
Dinamo II Bucuresti
Sportul Studentesc Bucuresti
Petrolul Ploiesti
Forex Brasov
Dunarea Giurgiu
Prefab Modelu
Progresul Bucuresti
FCM Bacau
CSM Focsani
Cetatea Suceava
CSM Ramnicu Sarat
Juventus Bucuresti
CSM Ploiesti
Rova Rosiorii de Vede
Seria a II-a
Pandurii Targu Jiu
UTA Arad
Universitatea Cluj
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
Liberty Oradea
Muresul Deva
Jiul Petrosani
FC Drobeta Turnu Severin
FC Bihor Oradea
Unirea Alba Iulia
FCM Resita
Minerul Lupeni
Industria Sarmei Campia Turzii
Ariesul Turda
CFR Timisoara
International Curtea de Arges
CSM Sebes
Lotus Felix Sanmartin
Am considerat ca ar castiga barajul pentru Liga a II-a echipele cu cea mai buna medie de puncte pe meci. Am folosit clasamentele publicate de ProSport.
Seria I
Farul Constanta
Concordia Chiajna
Delta Tulcea
FC Botosani
Dinamo II Bucuresti
Sportul Studentesc Bucuresti
Petrolul Ploiesti
Forex Brasov
Dunarea Giurgiu
Prefab Modelu
Progresul Bucuresti
FCM Bacau
CSM Focsani
Cetatea Suceava
CSM Ramnicu Sarat
Juventus Bucuresti
CSM Ploiesti
Rova Rosiorii de Vede
Seria a II-a
Pandurii Targu Jiu
UTA Arad
Universitatea Cluj
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
Liberty Oradea
Muresul Deva
Jiul Petrosani
FC Drobeta Turnu Severin
FC Bihor Oradea
Unirea Alba Iulia
FCM Resita
Minerul Lupeni
Industria Sarmei Campia Turzii
Ariesul Turda
CFR Timisoara
International Curtea de Arges
CSM Sebes
Lotus Felix Sanmartin
Am considerat ca ar castiga barajul pentru Liga a II-a echipele cu cea mai buna medie de puncte pe meci. Am folosit clasamentele publicate de ProSport.
Monday, November 26, 2007
EURO 2012: The possible preliminary format
30 March 2009
Confirmed - sort of... See the update.
21 May 2008
The coefficient system was changed by UEFA: link.
______________________________________
There are 14 places available and 51 teams.
Regarding the format, here's some food for thought:
1. Platini doesn't like groups of seven and eight teams.
"I wasn't really happy with the format for the last qualifying competition with groups of seven and eight teams" said UEFA President Michel Platini.
2. UEFA tends to move towards groups with five or six teams. That's the format used for U21 qualifiers. See the regulations of the U21 championships:
Article 7.02:
The number of teams per group should not, in principle, be less then five or more than six.
3. With more groups, the differences among teams from one pot can be significant.
4. FAs don't really like the "worst second place stays home" scenario.
We might see six groups of six teams and three of five teams. The winners and best runners-up would qualify directly, while the rest of the second placed teams would go to a play-off.
Of course, there could be 9 groups of 5 teams and one of 6 teams, but in this case the two worst second place teams would miss the play-offs. I don't see it happening.
At the moment, UEFA's ranking for national teams is under review, but using the usual point average method, here's how the pots would look like (for Switzerland and Austria I used average from the 2006 WCQ - yes, I know it will not be used, but it helps to get a clearer picture):
Column order:
Rank - Country - PPG - Average goal difference - Average goals scored
Confirmed - sort of... See the update.
21 May 2008
The coefficient system was changed by UEFA: link.
______________________________________
There are 14 places available and 51 teams.
Regarding the format, here's some food for thought:
1. Platini doesn't like groups of seven and eight teams.
"I wasn't really happy with the format for the last qualifying competition with groups of seven and eight teams" said UEFA President Michel Platini.
2. UEFA tends to move towards groups with five or six teams. That's the format used for U21 qualifiers. See the regulations of the U21 championships:
Article 7.02:
The number of teams per group should not, in principle, be less then five or more than six.
3. With more groups, the differences among teams from one pot can be significant.
4. FAs don't really like the "worst second place stays home" scenario.
We might see six groups of six teams and three of five teams. The winners and best runners-up would qualify directly, while the rest of the second placed teams would go to a play-off.
Of course, there could be 9 groups of 5 teams and one of 6 teams, but in this case the two worst second place teams would miss the play-offs. I don't see it happening.
At the moment, UEFA's ranking for national teams is under review, but using the usual point average method, here's how the pots would look like (for Switzerland and Austria I used average from the 2006 WCQ - yes, I know it will not be used, but it helps to get a clearer picture):
Column order:
Rank - Country - PPG - Average goal difference - Average goals scored
1 Greece 2.583 1.250 2.083
2 Czech Republic 2.417 1.833 2.250
3 Croatia 2.417 1.667 2.333
4 Romania 2.417 1.583 2.167
5 Italy 2.417 1.083 1.833
6 Spain 2.333 1.250 1.917
7 Germany 2.250 2.333 2.917
8 France 2.167 1.667 2.083
9 Sweden 2.167 1.167 1.917
----------------------------------------
10 Netherlands 2.167 0.833 1.250
11 Bulgaria 2.083 0.917 1.500
12 Turkey 2.000 1.167 2.083
13 Russia 2.000 0.917 1.500
14 Scotland 2.000 0.750 1.750
15 Portugal 1.929 1.000 1.714
16 England 1.917 1.417 2.000
17 Norway 1.917 1.333 2.250
18 Israel 1.917 0.667 1.667
----------------------------------------
19 Switzerland 1.800 1.100 1.800
20 Serbia 1.714 0.786 1.571
21 Finland 1.714 0.429 0.929
22 Denmark 1.667 0.833 1.750
23 Northern Ireland 1.667 0.250 1.417
24 Austria 1.500 0.300 1.500
25 Ireland 1.417 0.250 1.417
26 Slovakia 1.333 0.833 2.750
27 Lithuania 1.333 -0.167 0.917
----------------------------------------
28 Belgium 1.286 -0.143 1.000
29 Wales 1.250 -0.083 1.500
30 Macedonia 1.167 0.000 1.000
31 Cyprus 1.167 -0.583 1.417
32 Belarus 1.083 -0.500 1.417
33 Bosnia-Herzegovina 1.083 -0.500 1.333
34 Latvia 1.000 -0.167 1.250
35 Moldova 1.000 -0.583 1.000
36 Hungary 1.000 -0.917 0.917
----------------------------------------
37 Albania 0.917 -0.500 1.000
38 Slovenia 0.917 -0.583 0.750
39 Georgia 0.833 -0.250 1.333
40 Armenia 0.750 -0.750 0.333
41 Kazakhstan 0.714 -0.714 0.786
42 Iceland 0.667 -1.417 0.833
43 Estonia 0.583 -1.333 0.417
44 Liechtenstein 0.583 -1.917 0.750
45 Malta 0.417 -1.750 0.833
----------------------------------------
46 Azerbaijan 0.417 -1.833 0.500
47 Luxembourg 0.250 -1.750 0.167
48 Faroe Islands 0.000 -3.250 0.333
49 Andorra 0.000 -3.333 0.167
50 San Marino 0.000 -4.583 0.167
51 Montenegro
Azerbaijan's November ranking revisited, is there a mistake?
This is the title of a post written by Zombie Z on Bert's Forum 2.
Basically, Azerbaijan got 26 "undeserved extra points" (going from 248 to 274) and leapfrogged Liechtenstein (261 points) for the last place in Pot 5.
Pot 5: Georgia, Albania, Slovenia, Latvia, Iceland, Armenia, Austria, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan
Pot 6: Liechtenstein, Estonia, Malta, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Andorra, Faroe Islands, San Marino
For a very detailed analysis, read Zombie Z's post.
I will only add this to his words:
Column order
1. Month (of 2007)
2. FIFA Points
3. Points according to my calculations
4. Difference
As you can see November stands out, with 26 points.
When I first read Zombie Z's post, I remembered something Platini said in October:
"Azerbaijan and Armenia are likely to avoid playing each other in future European Championship and World Cup qualifiers.
UEFA president Michel Platini said Wednesday it was a "mistake" to have Azerbaijan and Armenia - which have no diplomatic relations - in the same Euro 2008 qualifying group.
"We will try that both teams never face each other again," said Platini, who was in Baku with FIFA president Sepp Blatter for the opening of the Azerbaijan soccer federation's new headquarters.
Armenia and Azerbaijan had back-to-back matches in Group A canceled in September after the two failed to agree on a neutral location. No points were given for the matches.
Both teams have failed to qualify for next year's European Championship in Austria and Switzerland, the IHT reports ."
With the extra 26 points, Azerbaijan was placed in the same pot with Armenia, thus avoiding each other in the draw.
Ironically, Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein were drawn together in Group 4. Now, even if FIFA admit their mistake (was there a mistake?) and switch the two countries, nothing would change.
Pure coincidence? I guess we will never know.
Basically, Azerbaijan got 26 "undeserved extra points" (going from 248 to 274) and leapfrogged Liechtenstein (261 points) for the last place in Pot 5.
Pot 5: Georgia, Albania, Slovenia, Latvia, Iceland, Armenia, Austria, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan
Pot 6: Liechtenstein, Estonia, Malta, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Andorra, Faroe Islands, San Marino
For a very detailed analysis, read Zombie Z's post.
I will only add this to his words:
Column order
1. Month (of 2007)
2. FIFA Points
3. Points according to my calculations
4. Difference
May 297 301 -4
June 277 277 0
July 277 277 0
August 290 290 0
September 287 287 0
October 279 280 -1
November 274 248 26
As you can see November stands out, with 26 points.
When I first read Zombie Z's post, I remembered something Platini said in October:
"Azerbaijan and Armenia are likely to avoid playing each other in future European Championship and World Cup qualifiers.
UEFA president Michel Platini said Wednesday it was a "mistake" to have Azerbaijan and Armenia - which have no diplomatic relations - in the same Euro 2008 qualifying group.
"We will try that both teams never face each other again," said Platini, who was in Baku with FIFA president Sepp Blatter for the opening of the Azerbaijan soccer federation's new headquarters.
Armenia and Azerbaijan had back-to-back matches in Group A canceled in September after the two failed to agree on a neutral location. No points were given for the matches.
Both teams have failed to qualify for next year's European Championship in Austria and Switzerland, the IHT reports ."
With the extra 26 points, Azerbaijan was placed in the same pot with Armenia, thus avoiding each other in the draw.
Ironically, Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein were drawn together in Group 4. Now, even if FIFA admit their mistake (was there a mistake?) and switch the two countries, nothing would change.
Pure coincidence? I guess we will never know.
Friday, November 23, 2007
CM 2010: Urnele pentru preliminarii
Tragerea la sorti pentru preliminariile CM 2010 va avea loc la Durban, in Africa de Sud, duminica, 25 noiembrie 2007, de la ora 17:00 (ora Romaniei).
Urna 1: Italia, Spania, Germania, Cehia, Franta, Portugalia, Olanda, Croatia, Grecia
Urna 2: Anglia, Romania, Scotia, Turcia, Bulgaria, Rusia, Polonia, Suedia, Israel
Urna 3: Norvegia, Ucraina, Serbia, Danemarca, Irlanda de Nord, Irlanda, Finlanda, Elvetia, Belgia
Urna 4: Slovacia, Bosnia-Hertegovina, Ungaria, Moldova, Tara Galilor, Macedonia, Belarus, Lituania, Cipru
Urna 5: Georgia, Albania, Slovenia, Letonia, Islanda, Armenia, Austria, Kazahstan, Azerbaidjan
Urna 6: Liechtenstein, Estonia, Malta, Luxemburg, Muntenegru, Andorra, Insulele Feroe, San Marino
Romania in urna a doua. De mentionat ca am fi fost in prima urna daca obtineam macar un egal in Bulgaria...
Castigatoarele celor noua grupe se califica direct. Cele mai bune opt echipe de pe locul al doilea disputa baraj. Cea de-a noua ramane acasa.
1. Clasament FIFA
Italia, Romania, Norvegia, Slovacia, Georgia, Liechtenstein
Grecia, Romania, Belgia, Cipru, Azerbaidjan, San Marino
2. Clasament ELO
Italia, Romania, Elvetia, Slovacia, Austria, Muntenegru
Grecia, Romania, Irlanda de Nord, Moldova, Azerbaidjan, San Marino
3. Distanta
Portugalia, Romania, Irlanda de Nord/Irlanda, Tara Galilor, Islanda, Insulele Feroe
Grecia, Romania, Serbia, Moldova, Albania, Muntenegru
Urna 1: Italia, Spania, Germania, Cehia, Franta, Portugalia, Olanda, Croatia, Grecia
Urna 2: Anglia, Romania, Scotia, Turcia, Bulgaria, Rusia, Polonia, Suedia, Israel
Urna 3: Norvegia, Ucraina, Serbia, Danemarca, Irlanda de Nord, Irlanda, Finlanda, Elvetia, Belgia
Urna 4: Slovacia, Bosnia-Hertegovina, Ungaria, Moldova, Tara Galilor, Macedonia, Belarus, Lituania, Cipru
Urna 5: Georgia, Albania, Slovenia, Letonia, Islanda, Armenia, Austria, Kazahstan, Azerbaidjan
Urna 6: Liechtenstein, Estonia, Malta, Luxemburg, Muntenegru, Andorra, Insulele Feroe, San Marino
Romania in urna a doua. De mentionat ca am fi fost in prima urna daca obtineam macar un egal in Bulgaria...
Castigatoarele celor noua grupe se califica direct. Cele mai bune opt echipe de pe locul al doilea disputa baraj. Cea de-a noua ramane acasa.
1. Clasament FIFA
Italia, Romania, Norvegia, Slovacia, Georgia, Liechtenstein
Grecia, Romania, Belgia, Cipru, Azerbaidjan, San Marino
2. Clasament ELO
Italia, Romania, Elvetia, Slovacia, Austria, Muntenegru
Grecia, Romania, Irlanda de Nord, Moldova, Azerbaidjan, San Marino
3. Distanta
Portugalia, Romania, Irlanda de Nord/Irlanda, Tara Galilor, Islanda, Insulele Feroe
Grecia, Romania, Serbia, Moldova, Albania, Muntenegru
2010 WCQ: The official pots
The November rankings are out -> link.
The only difference between the pots I posted yesterday is Azerbaijan switching pots with Liechtenstein. Of course, I'm pretty proud :) Take that BBC (ha!, they changed the text) and Mirror!
Pot 1: Italy, Spain, Germany, Czech Republic, France, Portugal, Netherlands, Croatia, Greece
Pot 2: England, Romania, Scotland, Turkey, Bulgaria, Russia, Poland, Sweden, Israel
Pot 3: Norway, Ukraine, Serbia, Denmark, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Finland, Switzerland, Belgium
Pot 4: Slovakia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Moldova, Wales, Macedonia, Belarus, Lithuania, Cyprus
Pot 5: Georgia, Albania, Slovenia, Latvia, Iceland, Armenia, Austria, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan
Pot 6: Liechtenstein, Estonia, Malta, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Andorra, Faroe Islands, San Marino
The only difference between the pots I posted yesterday is Azerbaijan switching pots with Liechtenstein. Of course, I'm pretty proud :) Take that BBC (ha!, they changed the text) and Mirror!
Pot 1: Italy, Spain, Germany, Czech Republic, France, Portugal, Netherlands, Croatia, Greece
Pot 2: England, Romania, Scotland, Turkey, Bulgaria, Russia, Poland, Sweden, Israel
Pot 3: Norway, Ukraine, Serbia, Denmark, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Finland, Switzerland, Belgium
Pot 4: Slovakia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Moldova, Wales, Macedonia, Belarus, Lithuania, Cyprus
Pot 5: Georgia, Albania, Slovenia, Latvia, Iceland, Armenia, Austria, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan
Pot 6: Liechtenstein, Estonia, Malta, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Andorra, Faroe Islands, San Marino
Thursday, November 22, 2007
EURO 2008: UEFA ranking system under review
May 20, 2008: See the new coefficient system approved by UEFA -> link.
______________________________________
According to UEFA's professional football director Giorgio Marchetti, a UEFA review of its coefficient ranking system is underway for future EURO competitions -> link.
The current formula: (P1+P2)/(M1+M2)
It takes into account the number of points gained in the last two qualifying competitions (EURO and WC).
P - points, M - matches
Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Netherlands
Pot 2: Croatia, Italy, Czech Republic, Sweden
Pot 3: Romania, Germany, Portugal, Spain
Pot 4: Poland, France, Turkey, Russia
A couple of proposals
1. Use a weighted version of the current formula
(P1/M1 + 2*P2/M2)/
This would be the ranking:
The pots:
Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Croatia
Pot 2: Italy, Czech Republic, Netherlands, Romania
Pot 3: Germany, Sweden, Spain, Poland
Pot 4: Portugal, France, Turkey, Russia
2. Use the latest FIFA rankings
Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Italy
Pot 2: Spain, Germany, Czech Republic, France
Pot 3: Portugal, Netherlands, Croatia, Romania
Pot 4 : Turkey, Sweden, Russia, Poland
3. Use the African Nations Cup system - results of the previous three EURO tournaments
7 points for the winner
5 points for the runner-up
3 points for losing semifinalists
2 points for losing quarter finalists
1 points for team eliminated in the group stage
Points for EURO 2004 multiplied by 3, EURO 2000 by 2, EURO 1996 by 1.
Ranking
The pots:
Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Portugal
Pot 2 : France, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Italy
Pot 3: Germany, Spain, Sweden, Croatia
Pot 4: Romania, Turkey, Russia, Poland
4. Use a modified African Nations Cup system - results of the two previous EURO tournaments
After all, ACN takes place every two years, EURO - every four years and results from a tournament played 12 years ago have little relevance.
Ranking:
Pots:
Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Portugal
Pot 2: France, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Italy
Pot 3: Sweden, Spain, Germany, Russia
Pot 4: Croatia, Romania, Turkey, Poland
5. Use a system similar with the one used by FIFA to determine the WC seeds
The formula: Ranking Points + Performance Points
Ranking Points
Using the rankings published in Dec 2005, Dec 2006 and Nov 2007, for each of the ranking sort the teams - the best gets 16 points, the worst 1. Add the three values and divide by 3.
Performance points
Using EURO 2000 and EURO 2004
Winner gets 16 points, losing finalist 15 points and so on. The losing quarter finalist with the worst over-all performance gets 9 points. Teams eliminated in the group stage are ranked on points, goal difference, goals scored. The first four get 5 points, the other 4 points.
The value for EURO 2004 is multiplied by 2, for EURO 2000 by 1. The total is divided by 3.
Ranking:
The pots
Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, France
Pot 2: Netherlands, Portugal, Czech Republic, Italy
Pot 3: Spain, Germany, Sweden, Croatia
Pot 4: Turkey, Romania, Russia, Poland
______________________________________
According to UEFA's professional football director Giorgio Marchetti, a UEFA review of its coefficient ranking system is underway for future EURO competitions -> link.
The current formula: (P1+P2)/(M1+M2)
It takes into account the number of points gained in the last two qualifying competitions (EURO and WC).
P - points, M - matches
Netherlands 2.417
Croatia 2.409
Italy 2.364
Czech Republic 2.333
Sweden 2.273
Romania 2.250
Germany 2.250
Portugal 2.192
Spain 2.182
Greece 2.167
Poland 2.167
France 2.091
Turkey 1.958
Russia 1.958
Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Netherlands
Pot 2: Croatia, Italy, Czech Republic, Sweden
Pot 3: Romania, Germany, Portugal, Spain
Pot 4: Poland, France, Turkey, Russia
A couple of proposals
1. Use a weighted version of the current formula
(P1/M1 + 2*P2/M2)/
This would be the ranking:
Croatia 2.411
Italy 2.378
Czech Republic 2.361
Netherlands 2.333
Greece 2.306
Romania 2.306
Germany 2.250
Sweden 2.244
Spain 2.222
Poland 2.133
Portugal 2.119
France 2.111
Turkey 1.972
Russia 1.972
The pots:
Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Croatia
Pot 2: Italy, Czech Republic, Netherlands, Romania
Pot 3: Germany, Sweden, Spain, Poland
Pot 4: Portugal, France, Turkey, Russia
2. Use the latest FIFA rankings
Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Italy
Pot 2: Spain, Germany, Czech Republic, France
Pot 3: Portugal, Netherlands, Croatia, Romania
Pot 4 : Turkey, Sweden, Russia, Poland
3. Use the African Nations Cup system - results of the previous three EURO tournaments
7 points for the winner
5 points for the runner-up
3 points for losing semifinalists
2 points for losing quarter finalists
1 points for team eliminated in the group stage
Points for EURO 2004 multiplied by 3, EURO 2000 by 2, EURO 1996 by 1.
Ranking
Portugal 2 3 5 23
France 3 7 2 23
Greece - - 7 21
Netherlands 2 3 3 17
Czech Republic 5 1 3 16
Italy 1 5 1 14
Germany 7 1 1 12
Spain 2 2 1 9
Sweden - 1 2 8
Croatia 1 - 2 5
Romania - 2 1 5
Turkey - 2 1 5
Russia 1 - 1 4
Switzerland 1 - 1 4
Austria - - - 0
Poland - - - 0
The pots:
Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Portugal
Pot 2 : France, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Italy
Pot 3: Germany, Spain, Sweden, Croatia
Pot 4: Romania, Turkey, Russia, Poland
4. Use a modified African Nations Cup system - results of the two previous EURO tournaments
After all, ACN takes place every two years, EURO - every four years and results from a tournament played 12 years ago have little relevance.
Ranking:
Greece - 7 14
Portugal 3 5 13
France 7 2 11
Netherlands 3 3 9
Czech Republic 1 3 7
Italy 5 1 7
Sweden 1 2 5
Spain 2 1 4
Germany 1 1 3
Russia - 1 2
Croatia - 1 2
Switzerland - 1 2
Romania 2 - 2
Turkey 2 - 2
Austria - - 0
Poland - - 0
Pots:
Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Portugal
Pot 2: France, Netherlands, Czech Republic, Italy
Pot 3: Sweden, Spain, Germany, Russia
Pot 4: Croatia, Romania, Turkey, Poland
5. Use a system similar with the one used by FIFA to determine the WC seeds
The formula: Ranking Points + Performance Points
Ranking Points
Using the rankings published in Dec 2005, Dec 2006 and Nov 2007, for each of the ranking sort the teams - the best gets 16 points, the worst 1. Add the three values and divide by 3.
Performance points
Using EURO 2000 and EURO 2004
Winner gets 16 points, losing finalist 15 points and so on. The losing quarter finalist with the worst over-all performance gets 9 points. Teams eliminated in the group stage are ranked on points, goal difference, goals scored. The first four get 5 points, the other 4 points.
The value for EURO 2004 is multiplied by 2, for EURO 2000 by 1. The total is divided by 3.
Ranking:
France 13.3 13.3 26.6
Netherlands 13.3 12.7 26
Portugal 14.3 11.7 26
Czech Republic 11 13.3 24.3
Italy 8.3 14 22.3
Spain 7.3 13 20.3
Greece 10.7 7.3 18
Germany 4.7 12 16.7
Sweden 8 7.7 15.7
Croatia 2.7 7.7 10.4
Turkey 3.7 6.3 10
Romania 3.3 5.3 8.6
Russia 3.3 3.7 7
Switzerland 2.7 3.3 6
Poland 0 3.7 3.7
Austria 0 1 1
The pots
Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, France
Pot 2: Netherlands, Portugal, Czech Republic, Italy
Pot 3: Spain, Germany, Sweden, Croatia
Pot 4: Turkey, Romania, Russia, Poland
FIFA Ranking: Differences between the published and the calculated values
Since everyone is asking for this, here you go:
These are the differences between the values published by FIFA in October and those calculated by me.
Country - FIFA values - My values - Difference
These are the differences between the values published by FIFA in October and those calculated by me.
Country - FIFA values - My values - Difference
Italy 1387 1387 0
France 1271 1271 0
Germany 1245 1245 0
Spain 1226 1226 0
Netherlands 1207 1207 0
Portugal 1203 1203 0
Czech Republic 1174 1174 0
Croatia 1155 1155 0
England 1137 1137 0
Romania 1086 1086 0
Scotland 1049 1049 0
Greece 1034 1034 0
Russia 960 960 0
Poland 837 837 0
Norway 830 835 -5
Ukraine 828 816 12
Sweden 821 832 -11
Serbia 786 809 -23
Turkey 771 761 10
Denmark 769 759 10
Ireland 722 730 -8
Bulgaria 717 719 -2
Northern Ireland 716 720 -4
Israel 707 703 4
Switzerland 676 683 -7
Finland 667 672 -5
Bosnia-Herzegovina 630 622 8
Hungary 630 630 0
Slovakia 600 602 -2
Belgium 577 565 12
Cyprus 556 562 -6
Wales 521 513 8
Moldova 497 491 6
Albania 455 447 8
Georgia 447 439 8
Macedonia 423 421 2
Slovenia 422 416 6
Iceland 410 415 -5
Armenia 400 403 -3
Latvia 386 395 -9
Austria 382 369 13
Lithuania 380 372 8
Belarus 358 358 0
Azerbaijan 279 280 -1
Liechtenstein 262 264 -2
Kazakhstan 249 245 4
Estonia 211 214 -3
Malta 196 199 -3
Luxembourg 132 132 0
Montenegro 65 65 0
Andorra 61 63 -2
Faroe Islands 12 13 -1
San Marino 6 6 0
EURO 2008: Pots for the Lucerne draw
Confirmed by UEFA.
Greece will be seeded as EURO 2004 winners. Austria and Switzerland as hosts.
Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Netherlands
Pot 2: Croatia, Italy, Czech Republic, Sweden
Pot 3: Romania, Germany, Portugal, Spain
Pot 4: Poland, France, Turkey, Russia
Based on the provisional FIFA rankings:
Possible group of death: Netherlands, Italy, Germany/Spain, France
Possible group of... life: Austria, Sweden, Romania, Russia/Poland
Netherlands 2.417
Croatia 2.409
Italy 2.364
Czech Republic 2.333
Sweden 2.273
Romania 2.250
Germany 2.250
Portugal 2.192
Spain 2.182
Greece 2.167
Poland 2.167
France 2.091
Turkey 1.958
Russia 1.958
Greece will be seeded as EURO 2004 winners. Austria and Switzerland as hosts.
Pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Netherlands
Pot 2: Croatia, Italy, Czech Republic, Sweden
Pot 3: Romania, Germany, Portugal, Spain
Pot 4: Poland, France, Turkey, Russia
Based on the provisional FIFA rankings:
Possible group of death: Netherlands, Italy, Germany/Spain, France
Possible group of... life: Austria, Sweden, Romania, Russia/Poland
2010 WCQ: Pots for the Durban draw
November 23rd, 11:14: FIFA confirms the pots, with only one difference (Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein switch pots): link
See the oficial pots: link.
_______________________________
This is how the pots should look like for the 2010 WC UEFA preliminary draw. As mentioned before, only the values for the top 12 countries, Russia and Poland are 99% correct (I would say 100% correct, but you never know), being based on official data released by FIFA (Lusankya managed to find the document on the German version of FIFA.com -> pdf file). The other values are computed using historical rankings, different from the ones used by FIFA. For more info, read this. But they're pretty close to the official values (the error should be less than 3,4%). See the differences between the values published by FIFA in October and those calculated by me -> link.
Some of the countries are really close, so you'd better wait for the official rankings. They will be published tomorrow at 10:00 CET.
See the oficial pots: link.
_______________________________
This is how the pots should look like for the 2010 WC UEFA preliminary draw. As mentioned before, only the values for the top 12 countries, Russia and Poland are 99% correct (I would say 100% correct, but you never know), being based on official data released by FIFA (Lusankya managed to find the document on the German version of FIFA.com -> pdf file). The other values are computed using historical rankings, different from the ones used by FIFA. For more info, read this. But they're pretty close to the official values (the error should be less than 3,4%). See the differences between the values published by FIFA in October and those calculated by me -> link.
Some of the countries are really close, so you'd better wait for the official rankings. They will be published tomorrow at 10:00 CET.
R Country Pts
--------------------------
1 Italy 1498
2 Spain 1349
3 Germany 1296
4 Czech Republic 1290
5 France 1243
6 Portugal 1241
7 Netherlands 1170
8 Croatia 1129
9 Greece 1114
--------------------------
10 England 1113
11 Romania 1088
12 Scotland 990
13 Turkey 914
14 Bulgaria 879
15 Sweden 864
16 Russia 861
17 Poland 855
18 Israel 849
--------------------------
19 Serbia 842
20 Norway 831
21 Ukraine 811
22 Denmark 786
23 Northern Ireland 784
24 Ireland 739
25 Finland 699
26 Switzerland 663
27 Belgium 595
--------------------------
28 Slovakia 592
29 Hungary 581
30 Bosnia-Herzegovina 578
31 Moldova 573
32 Macedonia 555
33 Wales 553
34 Belarus 552
35 Lithuania 542
36 Cyprus 502
--------------------------
37 Georgia 407
38 Albania 397
39 Slovenia 396
40 Latvia 392
41 Iceland 384
42 Armenia 370
43 Austria 354
44 Kazakhstan 294
45 Liechtenstein 261
--------------------------
46 Azerbaijan 248
47 Estonia 225
48 Malta 185
49 Luxembourg 127
50 Montenegro 65
51 Andorra 59
52 Faroe Islands 13
53 San Marino 6
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
2010 WCQ: A quick look at the pots (II)
Take a look at the table below to see how the pots shape up before the last matchday. Only the values for the first 13 countries and Poland are 99% correct (I would say 100% correct, but you never know), being based on official data released by FIFA (Lusankya managed to find the document on the German version of FIFA.com -> pdf file). The other values are computed using historical rankings, different from the ones used by FIFA. For more info, read this. But they're pretty close to the official values (the error should be less than 3,4%) and will help you see what pot your country will end up in.
The third column contains the number of points after the November 20th matches.
I did a bit of reverse engineering - starting from the points gained in each match for the top 20 countries (according to the official data) and calculating the actual (not historical) ranking used by FIFA. Then I used these rankings to perform the calculations for the other countries.
Hats off to Sport365.ro , Sport1.bg, B92.net, NogoNet.com and Sportal.bg - the only websites using info from my blog and actually mentioning the source.
The third column contains the number of points after the November 20th matches.
I did a bit of reverse engineering - starting from the points gained in each match for the top 20 countries (according to the official data) and calculating the actual (not historical) ranking used by FIFA. Then I used these rankings to perform the calculations for the other countries.
R Country L D W
-----------------------------------------
1 Italy 1537 1461 1473 1498
2 Germany 1321 1267 1296 1355
3 Spain 1309 1247 1281 1349
4 Portugal 1258 1208 1241 1306
5 France 1251 1206 1243 1318
6 Czech Republic 1250 1183 1219 1290
7 Netherlands 1217 1170 1192 1236
8 England 1151 1113 1152 1231
9 Greece 1065 1010 1045 1114
-----------------------------------------
10 Romania 1055 1007 1034 1088
11 Croatia 1054 1000 1043 1129
12 Scotland 990 990 990 990
13 Russia 870 824 836 861
14 Turkey 856 819 851 914
15 Poland 854 824 855 916
16 Northern Ireland 842 784 838 946
17 Bulgaria 841 794 823 879
18 Serbia 840 792 842 942
-----------------------------------------
19 Norway 835 788 802 831
20 Sweden 826 803 823 864
21 Israel 806 764 792 849
22 Ukraine 789 766 811 900
23 Ireland 739 739 739 739
24 Denmark 737 711 736 786
25 Finland 693 651 699 795
26 Switzerland 663 663 663 663
27 Bosnia-Herzegovina 622 578 625 721
-----------------------------------------
28 Hungary 612 581 619 697
29 Macedonia 589 555 600 691
30 Slovakia 578 560 571 592
31 Moldova 573 573 573 573
32 Belgium 564 532 553 595
33 Wales 540 513 553 634
34 Cyprus 529 502 545 632
35 Lithuania 478 454 483 542
36 Belarus 438 420 464 552
-----------------------------------------
37 Georgia 431 407 430 475
38 Albania 419 397 439 525
39 Slovenia 416 396 433 509
40 Latvia 413 392 428 502
41 Iceland 413 384 432 527
42 Armenia 396 370 387 419
43 Austria 352 341 354 378
44 Azerbaijan 262 248 274 326
45 Liechtenstein 261 261 261 261
-----------------------------------------
46 Kazakhstan 249 239 257 294
47 Estonia 225 225 225 225
48 Malta 192 185 223 297
49 Luxembourg 127 127 127 127
50 Montenegro 65 65 65 65
51 Andorra 60 59 110 212
52 Faroe Islands 13 13 75 198
53 San Marino 6 6 48 131
Hats off to Sport365.ro , Sport1.bg, B92.net, NogoNet.com and Sportal.bg - the only websites using info from my blog and actually mentioning the source.
Monday, November 19, 2007
EURO 2008: Situatia la zi
Situatia dupa meciurile de pe 17 noiembrie 2007
Echipe calificate: Austria si Elvetia (tarile gazda)
Grupa A: Polonia, Portugalia
Grupa B: Italia, Franta
Grupa C: Grecia, Turcia
Grupa D: Cehia, Germania
Grupa E: Croatia, Anglia
Grupa F: Spania, Suedia
Grupa G: Romania, Olanda
Grecia (campioana en-titre) si tarile gazda vor face parte din urna 1, alaturi de echipa cu cel mai bun coeficient.
Urna 1: Austria, Elvetia, Grecia, Olanda
Urna 2: Croatia, Germania, Italia, Cehia
Urna 3: Anglia, Portugalia, Suedia, Romania
Urna 4: Polonia, Franta, Spania, Turcia
O posibila tragere la sorti:
Grupa A: Elvetia, Italia, Suedia, Franta
Grupa B: Austria, Cehia, Romania, Polonia
Grupa C: Grecia, Croatia, Anglia, Spania
Grupa D: Olanda, Germania, Portugalia, Turcia
Olanda 2.522
Croatia 2.381
Germania 2.364
Italia 2.333
Cehia 2.304
Anglia 2.286
Portugalia 2.240
Suedia 2.238
Romania 2.217
Polonia 2.217
Franta 2.143
Spania 2.143
Grecia 2.130
Turcia 1.913
Rusia 1.913
Serbia 1.909
Norvegia 1.810
Finlanda 1.560
Irlanda de Nord 1.381
Echipe calificate: Austria si Elvetia (tarile gazda)
Grupa A: Polonia, Portugalia
Grupa B: Italia, Franta
Grupa C: Grecia, Turcia
Grupa D: Cehia, Germania
Grupa E: Croatia, Anglia
Grupa F: Spania, Suedia
Grupa G: Romania, Olanda
Grecia (campioana en-titre) si tarile gazda vor face parte din urna 1, alaturi de echipa cu cel mai bun coeficient.
Urna 1: Austria, Elvetia, Grecia, Olanda
Urna 2: Croatia, Germania, Italia, Cehia
Urna 3: Anglia, Portugalia, Suedia, Romania
Urna 4: Polonia, Franta, Spania, Turcia
O posibila tragere la sorti:
Grupa A: Elvetia, Italia, Suedia, Franta
Grupa B: Austria, Cehia, Romania, Polonia
Grupa C: Grecia, Croatia, Anglia, Spania
Grupa D: Olanda, Germania, Portugalia, Turcia
2010 WCQ: A quick look at the pots
November 21st, 12:11: See the new and improved version -> link.
________________________________
Take a look at the table below to see how the pots shape up before the last matchday. Only the values for the first 14 countries are 99% correct (I would say 100% correct, but you never know), being based on official data released by FIFA. The other values are computed using historical rankings, different from the ones used by FIFA. For more info, read this. But they're pretty close to the official values and will help you see what pot your country will end up in.
The third column contains the number of points after the November 17th matches.
________________________________
Take a look at the table below to see how the pots shape up before the last matchday. Only the values for the first 14 countries are 99% correct (I would say 100% correct, but you never know), being based on official data released by FIFA. The other values are computed using historical rankings, different from the ones used by FIFA. For more info, read this. But they're pretty close to the official values and will help you see what pot your country will end up in.
The third column contains the number of points after the November 17th matches.
R Country L D W
-----------------------------------------
1 Italy 1537 1461 1473 1498
2 Germany 1321 1267 1296 1355
3 Spain 1309 1247 1281 1349
4 Portugal 1258 1208 1241 1306
5 France 1251 1206 1243 1318
6 Czech Republic 1250 1183 1219 1290
7 Netherlands 1217 1170 1192 1236
8 England 1151 1113 1152 1231
9 Greece 1065 1010 1045 1114
-----------------------------------------
10 Romania 1055 1007 1034 1088
11 Croatia 1054 1000 1043 1129
12 Scotland 990 990 990 990
13 Russia 870 824 836 861
14 Poland 854 824 855 916
15 Turkey 847 811 842 906
16 Bulgaria 845 799 827 883
17 Northern Ireland 843 786 839 947
18 Serbia 840 792 842 942
-----------------------------------------
19 Norway 832 785 800 828
20 Sweden 824 801 822 862
21 Israel 812 770 798 855
22 Ukraine 805 782 827 916
23 Denmark 738 712 737 787
24 Ireland 737 737 737 737
25 Switzerland 692 670 687 720
26 Finland 690 649 697 793
27 Bosnia-Herzegovina 622 578 626 721
-----------------------------------------
28 Hungary 614 583 621 699
29 Macedonia 586 552 597 687
30 Slovakia 584 567 577 598
31 Moldova 570 570 570 570
32 Belgium 563 532 553 595
33 Wales 542 515 555 636
34 Cyprus 527 499 542 629
35 Lithuania 479 455 484 543
36 Belarus 437 419 463 551
-----------------------------------------
37 Georgia 432 407 430 476
38 Albania 420 397 440 525
39 Slovenia 417 396 434 509
40 Iceland 413 384 432 527
41 Latvia 413 392 429 502
42 Armenia 396 370 387 419
43 Austria 352 342 354 378
44 Liechtenstein 261 261 261 261
45 Azerbaijan 260 247 273 325
-----------------------------------------
46 Kazakhstan 247 236 255 292
47 Estonia 221 215 224 242
48 Malta 191 185 222 297
49 Luxembourg 127 127 127 127
50 Montenegro 65 65 65 65
51 Andorra 61 60 111 213
52 Faroe Islands 13 13 75 198
53 San Marino 6 6 48 131
Sunday, November 18, 2007
Preliminarii CM 2010: Nu mai depinde doar de noi
Chiar daca a pierdut in fata Bulgariei, Romania mai are sanse (mici) sa ajunga in prima urna pentru tragerea la sorti a preliminariilor CM 2010.
Sapte tari si-au asigurat deja prezenta in prima urna dupa rezultatele de ieri: Italia, Franta, Germania, Spania, Olanda, Portugalia si Cehia.
Pentru ultimele doua locuri se bat (in ordinea sanselor): Anglia, Grecia, Croatia si Romania.
Ultimele meciuri:
Anglia - Croatia
Ungaria - Grecia
Romania - Albania
Anglia are nevoie doar de un egal pentru a-si pastra pozitia in prima urna. Grecia si Croatia au nevoie de victorie.
Romania poate fi in prima urna daca:
a. Romania - Albania 1
si
Anglia - Croatia 1x
Ungaria - Grecia 1x
b. Romania - Albania X
si
Anglia - Croatia 1
Ungaria - Grecia 1
Pe scurt, trebuie sa nu pierdem cu Albania si sa speram ca Grecia si Croatia nu obtin victorii.
Sapte tari si-au asigurat deja prezenta in prima urna dupa rezultatele de ieri: Italia, Franta, Germania, Spania, Olanda, Portugalia si Cehia.
Pentru ultimele doua locuri se bat (in ordinea sanselor): Anglia, Grecia, Croatia si Romania.
Ultimele meciuri:
Anglia - Croatia
Ungaria - Grecia
Romania - Albania
Anglia are nevoie doar de un egal pentru a-si pastra pozitia in prima urna. Grecia si Croatia au nevoie de victorie.
Romania poate fi in prima urna daca:
a. Romania - Albania 1
si
Anglia - Croatia 1x
Ungaria - Grecia 1x
b. Romania - Albania X
si
Anglia - Croatia 1
Ungaria - Grecia 1
Pe scurt, trebuie sa nu pierdem cu Albania si sa speram ca Grecia si Croatia nu obtin victorii.
The final fight for the first pot (II)
Remaining matches:
Italy: Faroe Islands (CQ, H)
France: Ukraine (CQ, A)
Germany: Wales (CQ, H)
Spain: Northern Ireland (CQ, H)
Netherlands: Belarus (CQ, A)
Portugal : Finland (CQ, H)
Czech Republic: Cyprus (CQ, A)
Croatia: England (CQ, A)
England: Croatia (CQ, H)
Romania: Albania (CQ, H)
Scotland: -
Greece: Hungary (CH, A)
Russia: Andorra (CQ, A)
Poland: Serbia (CQ, A)
The columns are pretty easy to understand.
Sure to be in Pot 1: Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Netherlands, Portugal, Czech Republic
No chance of Pot 1: Scotland, Russia, Poland (modified after zombie z's comment)
Fighting for the final two places in Pot 1: Croatia, England, Romania, Greece
Only Croatia, England and Greece have their Pot 1 chances in their hands.
1. Croatia in the first pot if:
a. England - Croatia X
and
Romania - Albania X2
Hungary - Greece 1
b. England - Croatia 2
2. England in the first pot if:
a. England - Croatia 2
and
Hungary - Greece 1X
b. England - Croatia 1x
3. Romania in the first pot if:
a. Romania - Albania X
and
England - Croatia 1
Hungary - Greece 1
b. Romania - Albania 1
and
England - Croatia 1x
Hungary - Greece 1x
4. Greece in the first pot if:
a. Hungary - Greece 1
and
England - Croatia 1
Romania - Albania 2
b. Hungary - Greece X
and
England - Croatia 1X
Romania - Albania X2
c. Hungary - Greece 2
Italy: Faroe Islands (CQ, H)
France: Ukraine (CQ, A)
Germany: Wales (CQ, H)
Spain: Northern Ireland (CQ, H)
Netherlands: Belarus (CQ, A)
Portugal : Finland (CQ, H)
Czech Republic: Cyprus (CQ, A)
Croatia: England (CQ, A)
England: Croatia (CQ, H)
Romania: Albania (CQ, H)
Scotland: -
Greece: Hungary (CH, A)
Russia: Andorra (CQ, A)
Poland: Serbia (CQ, A)
The columns are pretty easy to understand.
RU Country L D W
--------------------------------
1 Italy 1461 1473 1498
2 France 1206 1243 1318
3 Germany 1267 1296 1355
4 Spain 1247 1281 1349
5 Netherlands 1170 1192 1236
6 Portugal 1208 1241 1306
7 Czech Republic 1183 1219 1290
8 Croatia 1000 1043 1129
9 England 1113 1152 1231
--------------------------------
10 Romania 1007 1034 1088
11 Scotland 990 990 990
12 Greece 1010 1045 1114
13 Russia 824 836 861
14 Poland 824 855 916
Sure to be in Pot 1: Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Netherlands, Portugal, Czech Republic
No chance of Pot 1: Scotland, Russia, Poland (modified after zombie z's comment)
Fighting for the final two places in Pot 1: Croatia, England, Romania, Greece
Only Croatia, England and Greece have their Pot 1 chances in their hands.
1. Croatia in the first pot if:
a. England - Croatia X
and
Romania - Albania X2
Hungary - Greece 1
b. England - Croatia 2
2. England in the first pot if:
a. England - Croatia 2
and
Hungary - Greece 1X
b. England - Croatia 1x
3. Romania in the first pot if:
a. Romania - Albania X
and
England - Croatia 1
Hungary - Greece 1
b. Romania - Albania 1
and
England - Croatia 1x
Hungary - Greece 1x
4. Greece in the first pot if:
a. Hungary - Greece 1
and
England - Croatia 1
Romania - Albania 2
b. Hungary - Greece X
and
England - Croatia 1X
Romania - Albania X2
c. Hungary - Greece 2
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
The final fight for the first pot
This analysis is based on official data released by FIFA, so it's 99% correct.
Remaining matches:
CQ - Continental Qualifier
F - Friendly
H - Home
A - Away
Italy: Scotland (CQ, A), Faroe Islands (CQ, H)
France: Morocco (F, H), Ukraine (CQ, A)
Germany: Cyprus (CQ, H), Wales (CQ, H)
Spain: Sweden (CQ, H), Northern Ireland (CQ, H)
Netherlands: Luxembourg (CQ, H), Belarus (CQ, A)
Portugal: Armenia (CQ, H), Finland (CQ, H)
Czech Republic: Slovakia (CQ, H), Cyprus (CQ, A)
Croatia: Macedonia (CQ, A), England (CQ, A)
England: Austria (F, A), Croatia (CQ, H)
Romania: Bulgaria (CQ, A), Albania (CQ, H)
Scotland: Italy (CQ, H)
Greece: Malta (CQ, H), Hungary (CH, A)
Russia: Israel (CQ, A), Andorra (CQ, A)
Poland: Belgium (CQ, H), Serbia (CQ, A)
The columns are pretty easy to understand.
- Russia and Poland can't reach the first pot
- Romania will be in the first pot with 2 wins against Bulgaria and Albania (even a win against Bulgaria and a draw against Albania - amirbachar pointed this out), because Croatia and England have to play each other.
Remaining matches:
CQ - Continental Qualifier
F - Friendly
H - Home
A - Away
Italy: Scotland (CQ, A), Faroe Islands (CQ, H)
France: Morocco (F, H), Ukraine (CQ, A)
Germany: Cyprus (CQ, H), Wales (CQ, H)
Spain: Sweden (CQ, H), Northern Ireland (CQ, H)
Netherlands: Luxembourg (CQ, H), Belarus (CQ, A)
Portugal: Armenia (CQ, H), Finland (CQ, H)
Czech Republic: Slovakia (CQ, H), Cyprus (CQ, A)
Croatia: Macedonia (CQ, A), England (CQ, A)
England: Austria (F, A), Croatia (CQ, H)
Romania: Bulgaria (CQ, A), Albania (CQ, H)
Scotland: Italy (CQ, H)
Greece: Malta (CQ, H), Hungary (CH, A)
Russia: Israel (CQ, A), Andorra (CQ, A)
Poland: Belgium (CQ, H), Serbia (CQ, A)
The columns are pretty easy to understand.
RU Country LL LD LW DL DD DW WL WD WW
--------------------------------------------------------------
1 Italy 1320 1333 1358 1367 1380 1405 1461 1473 1498
2 France 1194 1231 1305 1206 1243 1318 1231 1268 1342
3 Germany 1177 1207 1266 1207 1237 1296 1267 1296 1355
4 Spain 1137 1171 1239 1174 1208 1276 1247 1281 1349
5 Netherlands 1139 1161 1205 1149 1171 1215 1170 1192 1236
6 Portugal 1135 1167 1232 1159 1192 1257 1208 1241 1306
7 Czech Republic 1071 1106 1178 1108 1144 1215 1183 1219 1290
8 Croatia 1000 1043 1129 1029 1072 1158 1086 1128 1214
9 England 1085 1124 1203 1094 1134 1213 1113 1152 1231
--------------------------------------------------------------
10 Romania 1007 1034 1088 1041 1068 1123 1110 1138 1192
11 Scotland 990 990 990 1039 1039 1039 1137 1137 1137
12 Greece 967 1002 1071 982 1016 1085 1010 1045 1114
13 Russia 824 836 861 864 877 902 946 958 983
14 Poland 746 776 838 772 803 864 824 855 916
- Russia and Poland can't reach the first pot
- Romania will be in the first pot with 2 wins against Bulgaria and Albania (even a win against Bulgaria and a draw against Albania - amirbachar pointed this out), because Croatia and England have to play each other.
Drumul spre prima urna (II)
Modificat pe 15 noiembrie 2007 09:15.
Asa cum am promis, am refacut calculele avand in vedere ultimele informatii publicate de FIFA in legatura cu metoda de calculare a punctajelor.
Asa cum am promis, am refacut calculele avand in vedere ultimele informatii publicate de FIFA in legatura cu metoda de calculare a punctajelor.
Ordinea coloanelor:
1 - Tara
2 - Puncte in octombrie
3 - Punctaj minim in noiembrie
4 - Punctaj maxim in noiembrie
2 - Puncte in octombrie
3 - Punctaj minim in noiembrie
4 - Punctaj maxim in noiembrie
Italia 1387 1320 1498
Franta 1271 1194 1342
Germania 1245 1177 1355
Spania 1226 1137 1349
Olanda 1207 1139 1236
Portugalia 1203 1135 1306
Cehia 1174 1071 1290
Croatia 1155 1000 1214
Anglia 1137 1085 1231
Romania 1086 1007 1192
Scotia 1049 990 1137
Grecia 1034 967 1114
Rusia 960 824 983
Polonia 837 746 916
Dupa cum se poate observa, putem depasi (teoretic) Germania, Spania, Olanda, Portugalia, Cehia, Croatia si Anglia daca obtinem 6 puncte din dubla cu Bulgaria si Albania.
1. Germania
17/11/2007: Germania - Cipru (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Germania - 1072,5
Egal - 357,5
Castiga Cipru - 0
21/11/2007: Germania - Tara Galilor (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Germania - 1065
Egal - 355
Castiga Tara Galilor - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Germania nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 173 puncte, adica trebuie sa piarda ambele meciuri.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Germania - Cipru 2
Germania - Tara Galilor 2
2. Spania
17/11/2007: Spania - Suedia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Spania - 1320
Egal - 440
Castiga Suedia - 0
21/11/2007: Spania - Irlanda de Nord (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Spania - 1230
Egal - 410
Castiga Irlanda de Nord - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Spania nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 656 puncte, adica trebuie sa obtina maxim un punct din cele doua meciuri.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Spania - Suedia X2
Spania - Irlanda de Nord X2 (doar 2 daca Spania face egal cu Suedia)
3. Olanda
17/11/2007: Olanda - Luxemburg (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Olanda - 375
Egal - 125
Castiga Luxemburg - 0
21/11/2007: Belarus - Olanda (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Olanda - 795
Egal - 265
Castiga Belarus - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Olanda nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 636 puncte, adica nu trebuie sa castige in Belarus.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Belarus - Olanda 1x
4. Portugalia
17/11/2007: Portugalia - Armenia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Portugalia - 885
Egal - 295
Castiga Armenia - 0
21/11/2007: Portugalia - Finlanda (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Portugalia - 1170
Egal - 390
Castiga Finlanda - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Portugalia nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 684 puncte, adica sa obtina maxim un punct in cele doua meciuri.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Portugalia - Armenia X2
Portugalia - Finlanda X2 (doar 2 daca Portugalia face egal cu Armenia)
5. Cehia
17/11/2007: Cehia - Slovacia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Cehia - 1125
Egal - 375
Castiga Slovacia - 0
21/11/2007: Cipru - Cehia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Cehia - 1072,5
Egal - 357,5
Castiga Cipru - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Cehia nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 1210 puncte, adica trebuie sa obtina maxim trei puncte din cele doua meciuri.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Cehia - Slovacia 1X2
Cipru - Cehia 1X2 (doar 1 daca Slovacia pierde in fata Cehiei)
6. Croatia
17/11/2007: Macedonia - Croatia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Croatia - 937,5
Egal - 312,5
Castiga Macedonia - 0
21/11/2007: Anglia - Croatia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Croatia - 1417,5
Egal - 472,5
Castiga Anglia - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Croatia nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 2105 puncte, adica nu trebuie sa castige ambele meciuri.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Macedonia - Croatia 1x
sau
Anglia - Croatia 1x
7. Anglia
16/11/2007: Austria - Anglia (Amical)
Castiga Anglia - 336
Egal - 112
Castiga Austria - 0
21/11/2007: Anglia - Croatia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Anglia - 1425
Egal - 475
Castiga Croatia - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Anglia nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 1284 puncte, adica trebuie sa nu castige impotriva Croatiei.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Anglia - Croatia X2
Sa recapitulam:
Anglia - Croatia 1 - Depasim Croatia in clasamentul FIFA
Anglia - Croatia 2 - Depasim Anglia in clasamentul FIFA
Anglia - Croatia X - Depasim Anglia si Croatia in clasamentul FIFA
Sa speram ca Romania va obtine cele sase puncte necesare! (15 noiembrie 2007: putem ajunge in prima urna si cu o victorie in Bulgaria si un egal acasa cu Albania -> link).
HAI ROMANIA!
FIFA miscalculated the rankings... or did they?
There's an explanation for the "errors" found in the FIFA Rankings. FIFA did use the new raking method to calculate the points totals, but with a twist. They didn't use the rankings published before July 2006, but they recalculated the rankings going way back (to 1996 according to an e-mail received from FIFA Information Services). As FIFA didn't publish these recalculated rankings, it's virtually impossible to calculate the points totals before they publish them. The good news is these recalculated rankings will eventually go out of the system after the 2010 WC and it will be quite easy to calculate the points totals ahead of FIFA.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
FIFA miscalculated the rankings
November 14th, 2007: There is no error - see the explanation. I apologize if I've caused any problems. The rankings prior to July 2006 are purely historical and are not used in the calculations of points. The original article follows (just to better illustrate my mistake):
-----------------------------------
FIFA has some errors in their latest ranking published in October.
Allow me to explain:
I've taken the FIFA Ranking method from this document: http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/fifafacts/rawrank/ip-590_10e_wrpointcalculation_8771.pdf
The results are available at this location: http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/results/male.html
I will illustrate these errors using my home country, Romania. No fewer than 18 matches have the wrong total. Basically, all matches played before the 2006 WC have errors, although FIFA states the same formula applies for those matches too (check the match examples at the end of the FIFA Ranking method).
Column order:
1. Date
2. Match type
3. Match details
4. Romania's opponent rank
5. Computed points
6. Official FIFA points
7. Assumed FIFA Ranking based on the official FIFA points (taken from a recent FIFA media release - see the image above)
Total points (published by FIFA): 1086.28
Correct total points: 1081.55
Of course, it's not a big difference, but this is proof that FIFA has some problems with the ranking software. Remember the November rankings will be used to seed the UEFA teams for the 2010 WC preliminary draw. This could get interesting... In a couple of days I will post all the differences I've found.
Detailed analysis of the error matches:
18.02.2004 (Friendly) Romania - Georgia 3 - 0
Romania gets 432 points for this match according to FIFA.
Let's calculate the assumed Georgia ranking:
Both countries are from UEFA: Regional strength = 1
Friendly match: Match value = 1
Romania wins: Points = 3
Opponent strength = (200 - Opponent Ranking)/100 (for countries ranked lower than 1 and higher than 150)
Georgia Ranking = 200 - 432/(1 * 1 * 3) = 56th
The match took place in February 2004. Georgia was ranked 93rd in Jan 2004, 94th in Feb 2004.
31.03.2004 (Friendly) Scotland - Romania 1 - 2
Romania gets 483 points.
Assumed Scotland ranking: 39th.
In Mar 2004, Scotland was 56th.
28.04.2004 (Friendly) Romania - Germany 5 - 1
Romania gets 573 points.
Assumed Germany ranking: 9th.
In Apr 2004, Germany was 7th.
18.08.2004 (WC Qualifier) Romania - Finland 2 - 1
Romania gets 1072.5 points.
Assumed Finland ranking: 57th.
In Aug 2004, Finland was 49th.
04.09.2004 (WC Qualifier) Romania - Macedonia FYR 2 - 1
Romania gets 765 points.
Assumed Macedonia FYR ranking: 98th.
In Sep 2004, Macedonia FYR was 88th.
08.09.2004 (WC Qualifier) Andorra - Romania 1 - 5
Romania gets 375 points.
Assumed Andorra ranking: 150th or lower.
In Sep 2004, Andorra was 148th.
17.11.2004 (WC Qualifier) Armenia - Romania 1 - 1
Romania gets 290 points.
Assumed Armenia ranking: 84th.
In Nov 2004, Armenia was 123th.
09.02.2005 (Friendly) Romania - Slovakia 2 - 2
Romania gets 128 points.
Assumed Slovakia ranking: 72nd.
In Jan 2005, Slovakia was 53rd.
30.03.2005 (WC Qualifier) Macedonia FYR - Romania 1 - 2
Romania gets 847.5 points.
Assumed Macedonia FYR ranking: 87th.
In Mar 2005, Macedonia FYR was 94th.
08.06.2005 (WC Qualifier) Romania - Armenia 3 - 0
Romania gets 675 points.
Assumed Armenia ranking: 110th.
In May 2005, Armenia was 121st.
17.08.2005 (WC Qualifier) Romania - Andorra 2 - 0
Romania gets 457.5 points.
Assumed Andorra ranking: 139th.
In Aug 2005, Andorra was 134th.
03.09.2005 (WC Qualifier) Romania - Czech Republic 2 - 0
Romania gets 1477.5 points.
Assumed Czech Republic ranking: 3rd.
In Aug 2005, Czech Republic was 4th.
08.10.2005 (WC Qualifier) Finland - Romania 0 - 1
Romania gets 1012.5 points.
Assumed Finland ranking: 65th.
In Sep 2005, Finland was 40th .
16.11.2005 (Friendly) Romania - Nigeria 3 - 0
Romania gets 482.85 points.
Assumed Nigeria ranking: 26th.
In Oct 2005, Nigeria was 23rd.
28.02.2006 (Friendly) Romania - Armenia 2 - 0
Romania gets 282 points.
Assumed Armenia ranking: 106th.
In Feb 2006, Armenia was 108th.
01.03.2006 (Friendly) Slovenia - Romania 0 - 2
Romania gets 414 points.
Assumed Slovenia ranking: 62nd.
In Feb 2006, Slovenia was 70th.
26.05.2006 (Friendly) Romania - Northern Ireland 2 - 0
Romania gets 384 points.
Assumed Northern Ireland ranking: 72nd.
In May 2006, Northern Ireland was 96th.
27.05.2006 (Friendly) Romania - Colombia 0 - 0
Romania gets 181.09 points.
Assumed Colombia ranking: 18th .
In May 2006, Colombia was 27th.
-----------------------------------
FIFA has some errors in their latest ranking published in October.
Allow me to explain:
I've taken the FIFA Ranking method from this document: http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/fifafacts/rawrank/ip-590_10e_wrpointcalculation_8771.pdf
The results are available at this location: http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/results/male.html
I will illustrate these errors using my home country, Romania. No fewer than 18 matches have the wrong total. Basically, all matches played before the 2006 WC have errors, although FIFA states the same formula applies for those matches too (check the match examples at the end of the FIFA Ranking method).
Column order:
1. Date
2. Match type
3. Match details
4. Romania's opponent rank
5. Computed points
6. Official FIFA points
7. Assumed FIFA Ranking based on the official FIFA points (taken from a recent FIFA media release - see the image above)
16.11.2003 F ITA - ROU 1:0 (0:0) 8 0 0
18.02.2004 F ROU - GEO 3:0 (1:0) 94 318 432 56
31.03.2004 F SCO - ROU 1:2 (0:1) 56 432 483 39
28.04.2004 F ROU - GER 5:1 (4:0) 7 579 573 9
27.05.2004 F IRL - ROU 1:0 (0:0) 15 0 0
18.08.2004 WQ ROU - FIN 2:1 (0:0) 49 1132.5 1072.5 57
04.09.2004 WQ ROU - MKD 2:1 (1:0) 88 840 765 98
08.09.2004 WQ AND - ROU 1:5 (1:3) 148 390 375 150
09.10.2004 WQ CZE - ROU 1:0 (1:0) 6 0 0
17.11.2004 WQ ARM - ROU 1:1 (0:1) 123 192.5 290 84
09.02.2005 F ROU - SVK 2:2 (1:2) 53 147 128 72
26.03.2005 WQ ROU - NED 0:2 (0:1) 7 0 0
30.03.2005 WQ MKD - ROU 1:2 (1:1) 94 795 847.5 87
04.06.2005 WQ NED - ROU 2:0 (1:0) 5 0 0
08.06.2005 WQ ROU - ARM 3:0 (2:0) 121 592.5 675 110
17.08.2005 WQ ROU - AND 2:0 (2:0) 134 495 457.5 139
03.09.2005 WQ ROU - CZE 2:0 (1:0) 4 1470 1477.5 3
08.10.2005 WQ FIN - ROU 0:1 (0:1) 40 1200 1012.5 65
12.11.2005 F ROU - CIV 1:2 (0:0) 48 0 0
16.11.2005 F ROU - NGA 3:0 (1:0) 23 491.175 482.85 26
28.02.2006 F ROU - ARM 2:0 (0:0) 108 276 282 106
01.03.2006 F SVN - ROU 0:2 (0:1) 70 390 414 62
23.05.2006 F ROU - URU 0:2 (0:0) 22 0 0
26.05.2006 F ROU - NIR 2:0 (2:0) 96 312 384 72
27.05.2006 F ROU - COL 0:0 27 172.135 181.09 18
16.08.2006 F ROU - CYP 2:0 (2:0) 90 330 330
02.09.2006 CQ ROU - BUL 2:2 (1:0) 36 410 410
06.09.2006 CQ ALB - ROU 0:2 (0:0) 62 1035 1035
07.10.2006 CQ ROU - BLR 3:1 (2:1) 65 1012.5 1012.5
15.11.2006 F ESP - ROU 0:1 (0:0) 10 570 570
07.02.2007 F ROU - MDA 2:0 (0:0) 85 345 345
24.03.2007 CQ NED - ROU 0:0 7 482.5 482.5
28.03.2007 CQ ROU - LUX 3:0 (1:0) 178 375 375
02.06.2007 CQ SVN - ROU 1:2 (0:0) 76 930 930
06.06.2007 CQ ROU - SVN 2:0 (1:0) 76 930 930
22.08.2007 F ROU - TUR 2:0 (0:0) 22 534 534
08.09.2007 CQ BLR - ROU 1:3 (1:2) 69 982.5 982.5
12.09.2007 F GER - ROU 3:1 (1:1) 5 0 0
13.10.2007 CQ ROU - NED 1:0 (0:0) 5 1462.5 1462.5
17.10.2007 CQ LUX - ROU 0:2 (0:1) 176 375 375
Total points (published by FIFA): 1086.28
Correct total points: 1081.55
Of course, it's not a big difference, but this is proof that FIFA has some problems with the ranking software. Remember the November rankings will be used to seed the UEFA teams for the 2010 WC preliminary draw. This could get interesting... In a couple of days I will post all the differences I've found.
Detailed analysis of the error matches:
18.02.2004 (Friendly) Romania - Georgia 3 - 0
Romania gets 432 points for this match according to FIFA.
Let's calculate the assumed Georgia ranking:
Both countries are from UEFA: Regional strength = 1
Friendly match: Match value = 1
Romania wins: Points = 3
Opponent strength = (200 - Opponent Ranking)/100 (for countries ranked lower than 1 and higher than 150)
Georgia Ranking = 200 - 432/(1 * 1 * 3) = 56th
The match took place in February 2004. Georgia was ranked 93rd in Jan 2004, 94th in Feb 2004.
31.03.2004 (Friendly) Scotland - Romania 1 - 2
Romania gets 483 points.
Assumed Scotland ranking: 39th.
In Mar 2004, Scotland was 56th.
28.04.2004 (Friendly) Romania - Germany 5 - 1
Romania gets 573 points.
Assumed Germany ranking: 9th.
In Apr 2004, Germany was 7th.
18.08.2004 (WC Qualifier) Romania - Finland 2 - 1
Romania gets 1072.5 points.
Assumed Finland ranking: 57th.
In Aug 2004, Finland was 49th.
04.09.2004 (WC Qualifier) Romania - Macedonia FYR 2 - 1
Romania gets 765 points.
Assumed Macedonia FYR ranking: 98th.
In Sep 2004, Macedonia FYR was 88th.
08.09.2004 (WC Qualifier) Andorra - Romania 1 - 5
Romania gets 375 points.
Assumed Andorra ranking: 150th or lower.
In Sep 2004, Andorra was 148th.
17.11.2004 (WC Qualifier) Armenia - Romania 1 - 1
Romania gets 290 points.
Assumed Armenia ranking: 84th.
In Nov 2004, Armenia was 123th.
09.02.2005 (Friendly) Romania - Slovakia 2 - 2
Romania gets 128 points.
Assumed Slovakia ranking: 72nd.
In Jan 2005, Slovakia was 53rd.
30.03.2005 (WC Qualifier) Macedonia FYR - Romania 1 - 2
Romania gets 847.5 points.
Assumed Macedonia FYR ranking: 87th.
In Mar 2005, Macedonia FYR was 94th.
08.06.2005 (WC Qualifier) Romania - Armenia 3 - 0
Romania gets 675 points.
Assumed Armenia ranking: 110th.
In May 2005, Armenia was 121st.
17.08.2005 (WC Qualifier) Romania - Andorra 2 - 0
Romania gets 457.5 points.
Assumed Andorra ranking: 139th.
In Aug 2005, Andorra was 134th.
03.09.2005 (WC Qualifier) Romania - Czech Republic 2 - 0
Romania gets 1477.5 points.
Assumed Czech Republic ranking: 3rd.
In Aug 2005, Czech Republic was 4th.
08.10.2005 (WC Qualifier) Finland - Romania 0 - 1
Romania gets 1012.5 points.
Assumed Finland ranking: 65th.
In Sep 2005, Finland was 40th .
16.11.2005 (Friendly) Romania - Nigeria 3 - 0
Romania gets 482.85 points.
Assumed Nigeria ranking: 26th.
In Oct 2005, Nigeria was 23rd.
28.02.2006 (Friendly) Romania - Armenia 2 - 0
Romania gets 282 points.
Assumed Armenia ranking: 106th.
In Feb 2006, Armenia was 108th.
01.03.2006 (Friendly) Slovenia - Romania 0 - 2
Romania gets 414 points.
Assumed Slovenia ranking: 62nd.
In Feb 2006, Slovenia was 70th.
26.05.2006 (Friendly) Romania - Northern Ireland 2 - 0
Romania gets 384 points.
Assumed Northern Ireland ranking: 72nd.
In May 2006, Northern Ireland was 96th.
27.05.2006 (Friendly) Romania - Colombia 0 - 0
Romania gets 181.09 points.
Assumed Colombia ranking: 18th .
In May 2006, Colombia was 27th.
Monday, November 5, 2007
CM 2006: Cum a ratat Danemarca o ocazie unica
Daca s-ar fi calificat la turneul final al CM 2006, Danemarca ar fi fost cap de serie in locul Argentinei.
Demonstratie:
Pentru a determina capii de serie pentru tragerea la sorti a grupelor turnelui final din Germania, FIFA a luat in calcul rezultatele de la ultimele doua turnee finale (Franta 1998 si Coreea de Sud/Japonia 2002) si clasamentele FIFA din ultimii trei ani (mai exact cele publicate in Decembrie 2003, Decembrie 2004 si Noiembrie 2005).
Principala modificare fata de sistemul folosit pentru CM 2002 era folosirea ultimelor doua turnee finale in loc de trei, dupa ce FIFA fusese criticata pentru luarea in calcul a unei competitii care avusese loc cu mai bine de 12 ani in urma.
Cum se calculeaza punctajul pentru un turneu final?
Echipele care au trecut de faza grupelor (16 la numar) primesc intre 32 si 17 puncte. Campioana va primi 32 de puncte, iar echipa eliminata in optimi cu cea mai slaba linie de clasament general va primi 17 puncte. Echipele eliminate in faza grupelor (16 la numar pentru CM 1998 si CM 2002, respectiv 8 pentru CM 1994) sunt ordonate in functie de numarul puncte, golaveraj si goluri marcate. Echipele aflate in prima jumatate primesc 9 puncte, celelalte cate 8.
Pentru mai multe detalii, cititi articolul lui Paul Marcuccitti pe PlanetWorldCup.com.
Cum se calculeaza punctajul pentru clasamentul FIFA?
Echipele sunt ordonate in functie de pozitia in clasamentul FIFA. Cea mai bine clasata primeste 32 de puncte, cea mai slab clasata doar un punct.
Iata cum arata clasamentul folosit pentru determinarea capilor de serie la turneul final din Germania:
Cum ar fi aratat clasamentul daca s-ar fi luat in calcul trei turnee finale in loc de doua - deci ar fi fost inclus in calcule si turneul final CM 1994?
Avem aceiasi capi de serie, deci s-a putut renunta fara probleme la cel de-al treilea turneu final.
Totusi, comitetul executiv al FIFA n-ar fi renuntat atat de usor la cel de-al treilea turneu final daca Danemarca s-ar fi calificat la CM 2006. Danemarca a terminat pe pozitia a treia in grupa a doua la 3 puncte de Ucraina si la un singur punct de Turcia, care a pierdut barajul cu Elvetia. Sa presupunem ca Danemarca s-ar fi calificat totusi la turneul final, in dauna Elvetiei. Iata cum ar fi aratat clasamentul capilor de serie luand in calcul doar ultimele doua turnee finale:
Danemarca ar fi fost cap de serie in locul Argentinei.
Demonstratie:
Pentru a determina capii de serie pentru tragerea la sorti a grupelor turnelui final din Germania, FIFA a luat in calcul rezultatele de la ultimele doua turnee finale (Franta 1998 si Coreea de Sud/Japonia 2002) si clasamentele FIFA din ultimii trei ani (mai exact cele publicate in Decembrie 2003, Decembrie 2004 si Noiembrie 2005).
Principala modificare fata de sistemul folosit pentru CM 2002 era folosirea ultimelor doua turnee finale in loc de trei, dupa ce FIFA fusese criticata pentru luarea in calcul a unei competitii care avusese loc cu mai bine de 12 ani in urma.
Cum se calculeaza punctajul pentru un turneu final?
Echipele care au trecut de faza grupelor (16 la numar) primesc intre 32 si 17 puncte. Campioana va primi 32 de puncte, iar echipa eliminata in optimi cu cea mai slaba linie de clasament general va primi 17 puncte. Echipele eliminate in faza grupelor (16 la numar pentru CM 1998 si CM 2002, respectiv 8 pentru CM 1994) sunt ordonate in functie de numarul puncte, golaveraj si goluri marcate. Echipele aflate in prima jumatate primesc 9 puncte, celelalte cate 8.
Pentru mai multe detalii, cititi articolul lui Paul Marcuccitti pe PlanetWorldCup.com.
Cum se calculeaza punctajul pentru clasamentul FIFA?
Echipele sunt ordonate in functie de pozitia in clasamentul FIFA. Cea mai bine clasata primeste 32 de puncte, cea mai slab clasata doar un punct.
Iata cum arata clasamentul folosit pentru determinarea capilor de serie la turneul final din Germania:
1 Brazilia 31 32 31.7 1 32 1 32 1 32 32.0 63.7
2 Anglia 24 27 26.0 8 25 8 25 9 24 24.7 50.7
3 Spania 9 28 21.7 3 30 5 28 6 27 28.3 50.0
4 Germania 26 31 29.3 12 22 19 19 16 19 20.0 49.3
5 Mexic 20 22 21.3 7 26 7 26 7 26 26.0 47.3
6 Franta 32 8 16.0 2 31 2 31 5 28 30.0 46.0
7 Argentina 27 9 15.0 5 28 3 30 4 29 29.0 44.0
8 Italia 28 18 21.3 10 24 10 23 12 22 23.0 44.3
-----------------------------------------------------------
9 SUA 8 25 19.3 11 23 11 22 8 25 23.3 42.7
10 Olanda 29 - 9.7 4 29 6 27 3 30 28.7 38.3
11 Coreea de Sud 8 29 22.0 22 16 22 17 29 13 15.3 37.3
12 Japonia 8 24 18.7 29 12 17 20 15 20 17.3 36.0
13 Suedia - 20 13.3 19 19 13 21 14 21 20.3 33.7
14 Croatia 30 9 16.0 20 18 23 16 20 17 17.0 33.0
15 Paraguay 19 17 17.7 22 17 30 12 30 12 13.7 31.3
16 Cehia - - 0.0 6 27 4 29 2 31 29.0 29.0
17 Portugalia - 9 6.0 17 21 9 24 10 23 22.7 28.7
18 Costa Rica - 9 6.0 17 20 27 14 21 16 16.7 22.7
19 Arabia Saudita 8 8 8.0 26 14 28 13 32 11 12.7 20.7
20 Polonia - 8 5.3 25 15 25 15 23 15 15.0 20.3
21 Iran 9 - 3.0 28 13 20 18 19 18 16.3 19.3
22 Tunisia 8 8 8.0 45 8 35 11 28 14 11.0 19.0
23 Ecuador - 9 6.0 37 11 39 10 37 9 10.0 16.0
24 Serbia-Muntenegru 23 - 7.7 41 10 46 8 47 6 8.0 15.7
25 Elvetia - - 0.0 44 9 51 7 36 10 8.7 8.7
26 Ucraina - - 0.0 60 7 57 6 40 8 7.0 7.0
27 Coasta de Fildes - - 0.0 70 5 40 9 41 7 7.0 7.0
28 Australia - - 0.0 82 3 58 5 49 5 4.3 4.3
29 Trinidad-Tobago - - 0.0 70 6 63 4 51 3 4.3 4.3
30 Ghana - - 0.0 78 4 77 2 50 4 3.3 3.3
31 Angola - - 0.0 83 2 72 3 62 1 2.0 2.0
32 Togo - - 0.0 94 1 89 1 56 2 1.3 1.3
Cum ar fi aratat clasamentul daca s-ar fi luat in calcul trei turnee finale in loc de doua - deci ar fi fost inclus in calcule si turneul final CM 1994?
1 Brazilia 32 31 32 31.7 1 32 1 32 1 32 32.0 63.7
2 Spania 25 9 28 21.2 3 30 5 28 6 27 28.3 49.5
3 Germania 28 26 31 28.8 12 22 19 19 16 19 20.0 48.8
4 Mexic 20 20 22 21.0 7 26 7 26 7 26 26.0 47.0
5 Italia 31 28 18 23.5 10 24 10 23 12 22 23.0 46.5
6 Argentina 23 27 9 17.3 5 28 3 30 4 29 29.0 46.3
7 Anglia - 24 27 21.5 8 25 8 25 9 24 24.7 46.2
8 Franta - 32 8 14.7 2 31 2 31 5 28 30.0 44.7
--------------------------------------------------------------
9 Olanda 26 29 - 14.0 4 29 6 27 3 30 28.7 42.7
10 SUA 19 8 25 18.3 11 23 11 22 8 25 23.3 41.7
11 Suedia 30 - 20 15.0 19 19 13 21 14 21 20.3 35.3
12 Coreea de Sud 9 8 29 18.7 22 16 22 17 29 13 15.3 34.0
13 Japonia - 8 24 14.7 29 12 17 20 15 20 17.3 32.0
14 Croatia - 30 9 14.5 20 18 23 16 20 17 17.0 31.5
15 Cehia - - - 0.0 6 27 4 29 2 31 29.0 29.0
16 Paraguay - 19 17 14.8 22 17 30 12 30 12 13.7 28.7
17 Portugalia - - 9 4.5 17 21 9 24 10 23 22.7 27.2
18 Arabia Saudita 21 8 8 10.2 26 14 28 13 32 11 12.7 22.8
19 Costa Rica - - 9 4.5 17 20 27 14 21 16 16.7 21.2
20 Iran - 9 - 3.0 28 13 20 18 19 18 16.3 19.3
21 Polonia - - 8 4.0 25 15 25 15 23 15 15.0 19.0
22 Tunisia - 8 8 6.7 45 8 35 11 28 14 11.0 17.7
23 Serbia-Muntenegru - 23 - 7.7 41 10 46 8 47 6 8.0 15.7
24 Ecuador - - 9 4.5 37 11 39 10 37 9 10.0 14.5
25 Elvetia 18 - - 3.0 44 9 51 7 36 10 8.7 11.7
26 Ucraina - - - 0.0 60 7 57 6 40 8 7.0 7.0
27 Coasta de Fildes - - - 0.0 70 5 40 9 41 7 7.0 7.0
28 Australia - - - 0.0 82 3 58 5 49 5 4.3 4.3
29 Trinidad-Tobago - - - 0.0 70 6 63 4 51 3 4.3 4.3
30 Ghana - - - 0.0 78 4 77 2 50 4 3.3 3.3
31 Angola - - - 0.0 83 2 72 3 62 1 2.0 2.0
32 Togo - - - 0.0 94 1 89 1 56 2 1.3 1.3
Avem aceiasi capi de serie, deci s-a putut renunta fara probleme la cel de-al treilea turneu final.
Totusi, comitetul executiv al FIFA n-ar fi renuntat atat de usor la cel de-al treilea turneu final daca Danemarca s-ar fi calificat la CM 2006. Danemarca a terminat pe pozitia a treia in grupa a doua la 3 puncte de Ucraina si la un singur punct de Turcia, care a pierdut barajul cu Elvetia. Sa presupunem ca Danemarca s-ar fi calificat totusi la turneul final, in dauna Elvetiei. Iata cum ar fi aratat clasamentul capilor de serie luand in calcul doar ultimele doua turnee finale:
1 Brazilia 31 32 31.7 1 32 1 32 1 32 32.0 63.7
2 Anglia 24 27 26.0 8 25 8 25 9 24 24.7 50.7
3 Spania 9 28 21.7 3 30 5 28 6 27 28.3 50.0
4 Germania 26 31 29.3 12 22 19 18 16 18 19.3 48.7
5 Mexic 20 22 21.3 7 26 7 26 7 26 26.0 47.3
6 Franta 32 8 16.0 2 31 2 31 5 28 30.0 46.0
7 Italia 28 18 21.3 10 24 10 23 12 22 23.0 44.3
8 Danemarca 25 23 23.7 13 21 14 20 13 21 20.7 44.3
-----------------------------------------------------------
9 Argentina 27 9 15.0 5 28 3 30 4 29 29.0 44.0
10 SUA 8 25 19.3 11 23 11 22 8 25 23.3 42.7
11 Olanda 29 - 9.7 4 29 6 27 3 30 28.7 38.3
12 Coreea de Sud 8 29 22.0 22 16 22 16 29 12 14.7 36.7
13 Japonia 8 24 18.7 29 11 17 19 15 19 16.3 35.0
14 Suedia - 20 13.3 19 18 13 21 14 20 19.7 33.0
15 Croatia 30 9 16.0 20 17 23 15 20 16 16.0 32.0
16 Paraguay 19 17 17.7 22 15 30 11 30 11 12.3 30.0
17 Cehia - - 0.0 6 27 4 29 2 31 29.0 29.0
18 Portugalia - 9 6.0 17 20 9 24 10 23 22.3 28.3
19 Costa Rica - 9 6.0 17 19 27 13 21 15 15.7 21.7
20 Arabia Saudita 8 8 8.0 26 13 28 12 32 10 11.7 19.7
21 Polonia - 8 5.3 25 14 25 14 23 14 14.0 19.3
22 Iran 9 - 3.0 28 12 20 17 19 17 15.3 18.3
23 Tunisia 8 8 8.0 45 8 35 10 28 13 10.3 18.3
24 Ecuador - 9 6.0 37 10 39 9 37 9 9.3 15.3
25 Serbia-Muntenegru 23 - 7.7 41 9 46 7 47 6 7.3 15.0
26 Ucraina - - 0.0 60 7 57 6 40 8 7.0 7.0
27 Coasta de Fildes - - 0.0 70 5 40 8 41 7 6.7 6.7
28 Australia - - 0.0 82 3 58 5 49 5 4.3 4.3
29 Trinidad-Tobago - - 0.0 70 6 63 4 51 3 4.3 4.3
30 Ghana - - 0.0 78 4 77 2 50 4 3.3 3.3
31 Angola - - 0.0 83 2 72 3 62 1 2.0 2.0
32 Togo - - 0.0 94 1 89 1 56 2 1.3 1.3
Danemarca ar fi fost cap de serie in locul Argentinei.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Clasamentul FIFA fara meciuri amicale
La sugestia lui amirbachar, iata clasamentul FIFA pe luna octombrie fara a lua in calcul meciurile amicale:
Ordinea coloanelor:
Pozitia in noul clasament
Pozitia in clasamentul vechi (calculat de mine, nu cel oficial publicat de FIFA)
Puncte in noul clasament
Puncte in vechiul clasament (calculat de mine, nu cel oficial publicat de FIFA)
Ordinea coloanelor:
Pozitia in noul clasament
Pozitia in clasamentul vechi (calculat de mine, nu cel oficial publicat de FIFA)
Puncte in noul clasament
Puncte in vechiul clasament (calculat de mine, nu cel oficial publicat de FIFA)
1. ( 1.) Argentina 2294.72 1498.79
2. ( 2.) Brazilia 2217.54 1473.99
3. ( 3.) Italia 1900.63 1374.22
4. ( 5.) Germania 1736.18 1251.06
5. ( 4.) Franta 1638.14 1276.75
6. ( 8.) Olanda 1617.90 1196.19
7. (11.) Anglia 1546.62 1128.32
8. ( 9.) Cehia 1546.31 1192.96
9. ( 6.) Spania 1546.18 1230.47
10. ( 7.) Portugalia 1521.84 1228.93
11. (10.) Croatia 1461.76 1163.59
12. (15.) Mexic 1432.90 1002.46
13. (14.) Grecia 1420.21 1018.02
14. (24.) Suedia 1376.14 807.70
15. (12.) Romania 1308.98 1080.54
16. (26.) Paraguay 1274.72 798.17
17. (13.) Scotia 1245.74 1050.33
18. (22.) Polonia 1173.78 826.45
19. (16.) Rusia 1134.76 967.39
20. (30.) Turcia 1095.69 750.56
21. (21.) Norvegia 1091.43 831.71
22. (51.) Arabia Saudita 1077.62 598.57
23. (31.) Iran 1075.31 738.35
24. (17.) SUA 1050.17 894.68
25. (20.) Ucraina 1033.98 833.12
26. (28.) Japonia 1021.92 766.31
27. (25.) Camerun 1001.76 800.20
28. (19.) Nigeria 989.19 840.04
29. (18.) Uruguay 968.09 884.99
30. (33.) Guinea 961.27 724.48
31. (61.) Irak 937.41 493.49
32. (23.) Serbia 933.84 808.90
33. (38.) Egipt 912.25 707.83
34. (34.) Bulgaria 896.50 723.10
35. (45.) Coreea de Sud 893.44 646.81
36. (35.) Irlanda de Nord 861.03 720.72
37. (43.) Finlanda 835.42 666.84
38. (36.) Cote d'Ivoire 807.72 713.38
39. (37.) Israel 782.76 708.09
40. (32.) Irlanda 766.04 727.56
41. (39.) Senegal 762.22 695.00
42. (29.) Danemarca 760.34 760.25
43. (64.) Zambia 746.39 487.07
44. (44.) Tunisia 741.90 657.12
45. (40.) Elvetia 739.23 690.08
46. (52.) Canada 738.60 595.65
47. (42.) Maroc 738.23 668.94
48. (27.) Columbia 736.21 768.47
49. (59.) Uzbekistan 734.91 514.89
50. (50.) Slovacia 712.04 608.84
Cumpararea locurilor - interzisa de FIFA
Comitetul executiv al FIFA a luat azi urmatoarea decizie:
"Moreover, a new article in the Regulations Governing the Application of the FIFA Statutes is intended to ensure that clubs may only qualify for a higher division on sporting merit so as to prevent a recurrence of cases such as that of Spanish club Granada 74. The exact wording of this article will be submitted to the next meeting of the Executive Committee and subsequently ratified by the FIFA Congress."
Cu alte cuvinte, cumpararea locurilor va fi interzisa. Desigur ramane portita cu neprimirea licentei.
"Moreover, a new article in the Regulations Governing the Application of the FIFA Statutes is intended to ensure that clubs may only qualify for a higher division on sporting merit so as to prevent a recurrence of cases such as that of Spanish club Granada 74. The exact wording of this article will be submitted to the next meeting of the Executive Committee and subsequently ratified by the FIFA Congress."
Cu alte cuvinte, cumpararea locurilor va fi interzisa. Desigur ramane portita cu neprimirea licentei.
CM 2010 - capi de serie (Octombrie 2007)
Repartizarea locurilor pentru CM 2010:
Tara gazda: Africa de Sud
AFC: 4,5
CAF: 5
CONCACAF: 3,5
CONMEBOL: 4,5
OFC: 0,5
UEFA: 13
Meciurile de baraj: AFC - OFC si CONCACAF - CONMEBOL
Presupunand ca echipele mai bine clasate in clasamentul FIFA se vor califica la turneul final din Africa de Sud, iata cum ar arata clasamentul capilor de serie:
1 Brazilia 60.3 29.3 31
2 Germania 58.3 30.3 28
3 Italia 57.3 27.3 30
4 Argentina 53.0 21.0 32
5 Franta 52.3 23.3 29
6 Spania 52.3 25.3 27
7 Anglia 48.3 26.3 22
----------------------------
8 Portugalia 47.3 22.3 25
9 Olanda 40.7 14.7 26
10 Mexic 37.3 19.3 18
11 Croatia 32.0 9.0 23
12 Cehia 30.0 6.0 24
13 SUA 28.7 13.7 15
14 Japonia 23.3 13.3 10
15 Paraguay 22.7 11.7 11
16 Romania 21.0 0.0 21
17 Coreea de Sud 20.7 15.7 5
18 Scotia 20.0 0.0 20
19 Rusia 20.0 3.0 17
20 Grecia 19.0 0.0 19
21 Uruguay 18.7 2.7 16
22 Nigeria 16.7 2.7 14
23 Camerun 16.0 3.0 13
24 Senegal 15.7 8.7 7
25 Cote d'Ivoire 14.0 6.0 8
26 Australia 13.3 11.3 2
27 Columbia 12.0 0.0 12
28 Iran 11.3 5.3 6
29 Arabia Saudita 11.0 8.0 3
30 Guinea 9.0 0.0 9
31 Canada 4.0 0.0 4
32 Africa de Sud 4.0 3.0 1
Primele 7 echipe + Africa de Sud vor fi capi de serie.
Urnele pentru tragerea la sorti ar arata astfel (conform sistemului folosit pentru CM 2006):
Urna 1: Africa de Sud, Anglia, Argentina, Brazilia, Franta, Germania, Italia, Spania
Urna 2: Cehia, Croatia, Grecia, Olanda, Portugalia, Romania, Rusia, Scotia
Urna 3: Arabia Saudita, Australia, Canada, Coreea de Sud, Iran, Japonia, Mexic, SUA
Urna 4: Camerun, Columbia, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Nigeria, Paraguay, Senegal, Uruguay
O posibila tragere la sorti:
Grupa A: Africa de Sud, Croatia, Coreea de Sud, Uruguay
Grupa B: Argentina, Cehia, Arabia Saudita, Senegal
Grupa C: Spania, Rusia, Canada, Columbia
Grupa D : Anglia, Scotia, Mexic, Nigeria
Grupa E: Germania, Olanda, Iran, Paraguay
Grupa F: Italia, Grecia, Japonia, Cote d'Ivoire
Grupa G: Brazilia, Portugalia, Australia, Camerun
Grupa H: Franta, Romania , SUA, Guinea
Daca FIFA ar folosi clasamentul capilor de serie pentru a stabili toate cele patru urne, iata care ar fi situatia:
Urna 1: Africa de Sud, Anglia, Argentina, Brazilia, Franta, Germania, Italia, Spania
Urna 2: Cehia, Croatia, Japonia, Mexic, Olanda, Paraguay, Portugalia, SUA
Urna 3: Camerun, Coreea de Sud, Grecia, Nigeria, Romania, Rusia, Scotia, Uruguay
Urna 4: Arabia Saudita, Australia, Canada, Columbia, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Iran, Senegal
O posibila tragere la sorti:
Grupa A : Africa de Sud, Japonia, Rusia, Columbia
Grupa B: Spania, Croatia, Camerun, Arabia Saudita
Grupa C: Germania, Mexic, Coreea de Sud, Guinea
Grupa D: Franta, Olanda, Nigeria, Australia
Grupa E: Brazilia, SUA, Romania, Cote d'Ivoire
Grupa F : Italia, Portugalia, Uruguay, Canada
Grupa G: Argentina, Cehia, Scotia, Iran
Grupa H: Anglia, Paraguay, Grecia, Senegal
Tara gazda: Africa de Sud
AFC: 4,5
CAF: 5
CONCACAF: 3,5
CONMEBOL: 4,5
OFC: 0,5
UEFA: 13
Meciurile de baraj: AFC - OFC si CONCACAF - CONMEBOL
Presupunand ca echipele mai bine clasate in clasamentul FIFA se vor califica la turneul final din Africa de Sud, iata cum ar arata clasamentul capilor de serie:
1 Brazilia 60.3 29.3 31
2 Germania 58.3 30.3 28
3 Italia 57.3 27.3 30
4 Argentina 53.0 21.0 32
5 Franta 52.3 23.3 29
6 Spania 52.3 25.3 27
7 Anglia 48.3 26.3 22
----------------------------
8 Portugalia 47.3 22.3 25
9 Olanda 40.7 14.7 26
10 Mexic 37.3 19.3 18
11 Croatia 32.0 9.0 23
12 Cehia 30.0 6.0 24
13 SUA 28.7 13.7 15
14 Japonia 23.3 13.3 10
15 Paraguay 22.7 11.7 11
16 Romania 21.0 0.0 21
17 Coreea de Sud 20.7 15.7 5
18 Scotia 20.0 0.0 20
19 Rusia 20.0 3.0 17
20 Grecia 19.0 0.0 19
21 Uruguay 18.7 2.7 16
22 Nigeria 16.7 2.7 14
23 Camerun 16.0 3.0 13
24 Senegal 15.7 8.7 7
25 Cote d'Ivoire 14.0 6.0 8
26 Australia 13.3 11.3 2
27 Columbia 12.0 0.0 12
28 Iran 11.3 5.3 6
29 Arabia Saudita 11.0 8.0 3
30 Guinea 9.0 0.0 9
31 Canada 4.0 0.0 4
32 Africa de Sud 4.0 3.0 1
Primele 7 echipe + Africa de Sud vor fi capi de serie.
Urnele pentru tragerea la sorti ar arata astfel (conform sistemului folosit pentru CM 2006):
Urna 1: Africa de Sud, Anglia, Argentina, Brazilia, Franta, Germania, Italia, Spania
Urna 2: Cehia, Croatia, Grecia, Olanda, Portugalia, Romania, Rusia, Scotia
Urna 3: Arabia Saudita, Australia, Canada, Coreea de Sud, Iran, Japonia, Mexic, SUA
Urna 4: Camerun, Columbia, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Nigeria, Paraguay, Senegal, Uruguay
O posibila tragere la sorti:
Grupa A: Africa de Sud, Croatia, Coreea de Sud, Uruguay
Grupa B: Argentina, Cehia, Arabia Saudita, Senegal
Grupa C: Spania, Rusia, Canada, Columbia
Grupa D : Anglia, Scotia, Mexic, Nigeria
Grupa E: Germania, Olanda, Iran, Paraguay
Grupa F: Italia, Grecia, Japonia, Cote d'Ivoire
Grupa G: Brazilia, Portugalia, Australia, Camerun
Grupa H: Franta, Romania , SUA, Guinea
Daca FIFA ar folosi clasamentul capilor de serie pentru a stabili toate cele patru urne, iata care ar fi situatia:
Urna 1: Africa de Sud, Anglia, Argentina, Brazilia, Franta, Germania, Italia, Spania
Urna 2: Cehia, Croatia, Japonia, Mexic, Olanda, Paraguay, Portugalia, SUA
Urna 3: Camerun, Coreea de Sud, Grecia, Nigeria, Romania, Rusia, Scotia, Uruguay
Urna 4: Arabia Saudita, Australia, Canada, Columbia, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Iran, Senegal
O posibila tragere la sorti:
Grupa A : Africa de Sud, Japonia, Rusia, Columbia
Grupa B: Spania, Croatia, Camerun, Arabia Saudita
Grupa C: Germania, Mexic, Coreea de Sud, Guinea
Grupa D: Franta, Olanda, Nigeria, Australia
Grupa E: Brazilia, SUA, Romania, Cote d'Ivoire
Grupa F : Italia, Portugalia, Uruguay, Canada
Grupa G: Argentina, Cehia, Scotia, Iran
Grupa H: Anglia, Paraguay, Grecia, Senegal
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Croatia's fight for the first pot
At the request of a Croatia fan, here's an analysis of Croatia's chances to remain in the first pot for the WCQ draw (top 9 in UEFA zone of the FIFA Rankings):
Czech Republic
Czech Republic - Slovakia 1
Cyprus - Czech Republic 2
Czech Republic 1306.2726025641
Romania
Bulgaria - Romania
Romania - Albania
1 1 1070.18728030303
1 X 1016.02061363636
1 2 988.93728030303
X 1 1104.77061363636
X X 1050.6039469697
X 2 1023.52061363636
2 1 1173.93728030303
2 X 1119.77061363636
2 2 1092.68728030303
Scotland
Scotland - Italy 1
Scotland 1149.54735714286
Scotland - Italy X
Scotland 1074.54735714286
Scotland - Italy 2
Scotland 999.547357142857
England
Austria - England
England - Croatia
1 1 1180.20128571429
1 X 1101.03461904762
1 2 1061.45128571429
X 1 1189.53461904762
X X 1110.36795238095
X 2 1070.78461904762
2 1 1208.20128571429
2 X 1129.03461904762
2 2 1089.45128571429
Croatia
Macedonia - Croatia
England - Croatia
1 1 1013.87661038961
1 X 1056.83115584416
1 2 1142.74024675325
X 1 1042.2857012987
X X 1085.24024675325
X 2 1171.14933766234
2 1 1099.10388311688
2 X 1142.05842857143
2 2 1227.96751948052
If Czechia, Romania and Scotland win their matches and England wins the friendly against Austria, Croatia needs to win both matches (against Macedonia and England).
P.S.: Remember - these are my calculations - nothing official.
Czech Republic
Czech Republic - Slovakia 1
Cyprus - Czech Republic 2
Czech Republic 1306.2726025641
Romania
Bulgaria - Romania
Romania - Albania
1 1 1070.18728030303
1 X 1016.02061363636
1 2 988.93728030303
X 1 1104.77061363636
X X 1050.6039469697
X 2 1023.52061363636
2 1 1173.93728030303
2 X 1119.77061363636
2 2 1092.68728030303
Scotland
Scotland - Italy 1
Scotland 1149.54735714286
Scotland - Italy X
Scotland 1074.54735714286
Scotland - Italy 2
Scotland 999.547357142857
England
Austria - England
England - Croatia
1 1 1180.20128571429
1 X 1101.03461904762
1 2 1061.45128571429
X 1 1189.53461904762
X X 1110.36795238095
X 2 1070.78461904762
2 1 1208.20128571429
2 X 1129.03461904762
2 2 1089.45128571429
Croatia
Macedonia - Croatia
England - Croatia
1 1 1013.87661038961
1 X 1056.83115584416
1 2 1142.74024675325
X 1 1042.2857012987
X X 1085.24024675325
X 2 1171.14933766234
2 1 1099.10388311688
2 X 1142.05842857143
2 2 1227.96751948052
If Czechia, Romania and Scotland win their matches and England wins the friendly against Austria, Croatia needs to win both matches (against Macedonia and England).
P.S.: Remember - these are my calculations - nothing official.
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Drumul spre prima urna trece prin Sofia si Bucuresti
Ultima modificare: 13 noiembrie 2007 (17:36)
Nu uitati sa aveti in vedere diferentele intre punctajele calculate de mine si cele publicate de FIFA. Mai multe detalii: link. Sper sa am timp pana la meciul cu Bulgaria sa calculez din nou punctajele, pornind de la datele publicate de FIFA. Oricum, nu cred ca vor fi diferente notabile.
_____________________
Putem fi in prima urna la tragerea la sorti pentru preliminariile CM 2010! Depinde doar de noi - trebuie sa obtinem sase puncte din meciurile cu Bulgaria si Albania.
Putem depasi (teoretic) urmatoarele echipe in clasamentul FIFA: Germania, Spania, Olanda, Portugalia, Cehia, Anglia, Croatia. Totusi, daca nu am gresit (prea mult) calculele, vom depasi cel putin una dintre ele, ba chiar doua. Cu siguranta vom depasi Anglia sau Croatia. Putem sa le depasim chiar pe amandoua daca vor termina la egalitate meciul direct din preliminariile EURO 2008.
Cum se calculeaza coeficientul FIFA?
Sunt luate in calcul rezultatele din ultimele 48 de luni. Pentru fiecare interval de 12 luni se calculeaza punctajele obtinute in fiecare meci, se totalizeaza si se imparte la numarul de meciuri disputat in acel interval. Astfel, se obtin patru medii. Pentru a da mai multa importanta rezultatelor mai recente, prima medie (pentru meciuri disputate acum 37 - 48 luni) se inmulteste cu 0,2, a doua medie (meciuri disputate acum 25 - 36 luni) cu 0,3, a treia medie (13 - 24 luni) cu 0,5, iar a patra medie (12 - 1) cu 1 si se totalizeaza.
Cum se calculeaza punctajul pentru un meci?
Formula este urmatoarea: 100 * P * M * V * MVR
P = puncte (3 pentru victorie, 1 pentru egal sau infrangere la lovituri de departajare, 0 pentru infrangere, 2 pentru victorie la lovituri de departajare)
M = tipul meciului
1 - Amical
2,5 - Meci din preliminarii
3 - Meci de turneu final al unei competitii continentale (EURO, Copa America, Gold Cup, Cupa Asiei, Cupa Africii, Cupa OFC) sau de la Cupa Confederatiilor
4 - Meci de turneu final al Cupei Mondiale
V = valoarea adversarului
Formula de calcul: (200 - PCF)/100
PFC: Pozitia adversarului in clasamentul FIFA
Exceptii:
Pentru liderul clasamentului FIFA: V = 2
Pentru echipe mai jos de locul 150: V = 0,5
MVR = medie valoare regionala
MVR = (VR1 + VR2)/2
VR1 = valoare regionala pentru prima echipa
VR2 = valoare regionala pentru a doua echipa
Aceste valori regionale depind de confederatia din care face parte o echipa:
1 - UEFA (Europa)
0,98 - CONMEBOL (America de Sud)
0,85 - AFC (Asia si Australia)
0,85 - CAF (Africa)
0,85 - CONCACAF (America de Nord, Centrala si Caraibele)
0,85 - OFC (Oceania)
Astfel, pentru o victorie cu Bulgaria (locul 34 in clasamentul FIFA), Romania obtine:
100 * 3 * 2,5 * (200 - 34)/100 * (1 + 1)/2 = 1245 puncte
Iar pentru o victorie cu Albania (locul 70 in clasamentul FIFA)
100 * 3 * 2,5 * (200 - 70)/100 * (1 + 1)/2 = 975 puncte
Presupunand ca Romania castiga ambele meciuri ramase de disputat, ar ajunge la 1187,12 puncte in clasamentul FIFA.
Sa o luam pe rand:
1. Germania
17/11/2007: Germania - Cipru (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Germania - 1072,5
Egal - 357,5
Castiga Cipru - 0
21/11/2007: Germania - Tara Galilor (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Germania - 1065
Egal - 355
Castiga Tara Galilor - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Germania nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 25 puncte din aceste doua meciuri - adica trebuie sa le piarda pe amandoua.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Germania - Cipru 2
Germania - Tara Galilor 2
2. Spania
17/11/2007: Spania - Suedia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Spania - 1320
Egal - 440
Castiga Suedia - 0
21/11/2007: Spania - Irlanda de Nord (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Spania - 1230
Egal - 410
Castiga Irlanda de Nord - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Spania nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 576 puncte din aceste doua meciuri - adica trebuie sa obtina cel mult un punct din cele doua meciuri.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Spania - Suedia X2
Spania - Irlanda de Nord X2 (doar 2 daca Spania face egal cu Suedia)
3. Olanda
17/11/2007: Olanda - Luxemburg (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Olanda - 375
Egal - 125
Castiga Luxemburg - 0
21/11/2007: Belarus - Olanda (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Olanda - 795
Egal - 265
Castiga Belarus - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Olanda nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 709 puncte din aceste doua meciuri. Practic Olanda nu trebuie sa castige in Belarus.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Belarus - Olanda 1x
4. Portugalia
17/11/2007: Portugalia - Armenia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Portugalia - 885
Egal - 295
Castiga Armenia - 0
21/11/2007: Portugalia - Finlanda (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Portugalia - 1170
Egal - 390
Castiga Finlanda - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Portugalia nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 332 puncte din aceste doua meciuri, adica nu trebuie sa piarda cu Finlanda si sa obtina cel mult un egal cu Armenia.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Portugalia - Armenia X2
Portugalia - Finlanda 2
5. Cehia
17/11/2007: Cehia - Slovacia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Cehia - 1125
Egal - 375
Castiga Slovacia - 0
21/11/2007: Cipru - Cehia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Cehia - 1072,5
Egal - 357,5
Castiga Cipru - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Cehia nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 973 puncte din aceste doua meciuri, adica nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de doua puncte din cele doua meciuri.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Cehia - Slovacia X2
Cipru - Cehia 1X
6. Anglia
16/11/2007: Austria - Anglia (Amical)
Castiga Anglia - 336
Egal - 112
Castiga Austria - 0
21/11/2007: Anglia - Croatia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Anglia - 1425
Egal - 475
Castiga Croatia - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Anglia nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 1326 puncte din aceste doua meciuri, adica nu trebuie sa castige impotriva Croatiei.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Anglia - Croatia X2
7. Croatia
17/11/2007: Macedonia - Croatia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Croatia - 937,5
Egal - 312,5
Castiga Macedonia - 0
21/11/2007: Anglia - Croatia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Croatia - 1417,5
Egal - 472,5
Castiga Anglia - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Croatia nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 1943 puncte din aceste doua meciuri, adica nu trebuie sa castige ambele meciuri.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Macedonia - Croatia 1x2
Anglia - Croatia 1x2 (doar 1X daca Macedonia pierde in fata Croatiei).
Sa recapitulam:
Anglia - Croatia 1 - Depasim Croatia in clasamentul FIFA
Anglia - Croatia 2 - Depasim Anglia in clasamentul FIFA
Anglia - Croatia X - Depasim Anglia si Croatia in clasamentul FIFA
Sa speram ca Romania va obtine cele sase puncte necesare!
HAI ROMANIA!
Nu uitati sa aveti in vedere diferentele intre punctajele calculate de mine si cele publicate de FIFA. Mai multe detalii: link. Sper sa am timp pana la meciul cu Bulgaria sa calculez din nou punctajele, pornind de la datele publicate de FIFA. Oricum, nu cred ca vor fi diferente notabile.
_____________________
Putem fi in prima urna la tragerea la sorti pentru preliminariile CM 2010! Depinde doar de noi - trebuie sa obtinem sase puncte din meciurile cu Bulgaria si Albania.
Putem depasi (teoretic) urmatoarele echipe in clasamentul FIFA: Germania, Spania, Olanda, Portugalia, Cehia, Anglia, Croatia. Totusi, daca nu am gresit (prea mult) calculele, vom depasi cel putin una dintre ele, ba chiar doua. Cu siguranta vom depasi Anglia sau Croatia. Putem sa le depasim chiar pe amandoua daca vor termina la egalitate meciul direct din preliminariile EURO 2008.
Cum se calculeaza coeficientul FIFA?
Sunt luate in calcul rezultatele din ultimele 48 de luni. Pentru fiecare interval de 12 luni se calculeaza punctajele obtinute in fiecare meci, se totalizeaza si se imparte la numarul de meciuri disputat in acel interval. Astfel, se obtin patru medii. Pentru a da mai multa importanta rezultatelor mai recente, prima medie (pentru meciuri disputate acum 37 - 48 luni) se inmulteste cu 0,2, a doua medie (meciuri disputate acum 25 - 36 luni) cu 0,3, a treia medie (13 - 24 luni) cu 0,5, iar a patra medie (12 - 1) cu 1 si se totalizeaza.
Cum se calculeaza punctajul pentru un meci?
Formula este urmatoarea: 100 * P * M * V * MVR
P = puncte (3 pentru victorie, 1 pentru egal sau infrangere la lovituri de departajare, 0 pentru infrangere, 2 pentru victorie la lovituri de departajare)
M = tipul meciului
1 - Amical
2,5 - Meci din preliminarii
3 - Meci de turneu final al unei competitii continentale (EURO, Copa America, Gold Cup, Cupa Asiei, Cupa Africii, Cupa OFC) sau de la Cupa Confederatiilor
4 - Meci de turneu final al Cupei Mondiale
V = valoarea adversarului
Formula de calcul: (200 - PCF)/100
PFC: Pozitia adversarului in clasamentul FIFA
Exceptii:
Pentru liderul clasamentului FIFA: V = 2
Pentru echipe mai jos de locul 150: V = 0,5
MVR = medie valoare regionala
MVR = (VR1 + VR2)/2
VR1 = valoare regionala pentru prima echipa
VR2 = valoare regionala pentru a doua echipa
Aceste valori regionale depind de confederatia din care face parte o echipa:
1 - UEFA (Europa)
0,98 - CONMEBOL (America de Sud)
0,85 - AFC (Asia si Australia)
0,85 - CAF (Africa)
0,85 - CONCACAF (America de Nord, Centrala si Caraibele)
0,85 - OFC (Oceania)
Astfel, pentru o victorie cu Bulgaria (locul 34 in clasamentul FIFA), Romania obtine:
100 * 3 * 2,5 * (200 - 34)/100 * (1 + 1)/2 = 1245 puncte
Iar pentru o victorie cu Albania (locul 70 in clasamentul FIFA)
100 * 3 * 2,5 * (200 - 70)/100 * (1 + 1)/2 = 975 puncte
Presupunand ca Romania castiga ambele meciuri ramase de disputat, ar ajunge la 1187,12 puncte in clasamentul FIFA.
Sa o luam pe rand:
1. Germania
17/11/2007: Germania - Cipru (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Germania - 1072,5
Egal - 357,5
Castiga Cipru - 0
21/11/2007: Germania - Tara Galilor (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Germania - 1065
Egal - 355
Castiga Tara Galilor - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Germania nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 25 puncte din aceste doua meciuri - adica trebuie sa le piarda pe amandoua.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Germania - Cipru 2
Germania - Tara Galilor 2
2. Spania
17/11/2007: Spania - Suedia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Spania - 1320
Egal - 440
Castiga Suedia - 0
21/11/2007: Spania - Irlanda de Nord (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Spania - 1230
Egal - 410
Castiga Irlanda de Nord - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Spania nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 576 puncte din aceste doua meciuri - adica trebuie sa obtina cel mult un punct din cele doua meciuri.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Spania - Suedia X2
Spania - Irlanda de Nord X2 (doar 2 daca Spania face egal cu Suedia)
3. Olanda
17/11/2007: Olanda - Luxemburg (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Olanda - 375
Egal - 125
Castiga Luxemburg - 0
21/11/2007: Belarus - Olanda (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Olanda - 795
Egal - 265
Castiga Belarus - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Olanda nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 709 puncte din aceste doua meciuri. Practic Olanda nu trebuie sa castige in Belarus.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Belarus - Olanda 1x
4. Portugalia
17/11/2007: Portugalia - Armenia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Portugalia - 885
Egal - 295
Castiga Armenia - 0
21/11/2007: Portugalia - Finlanda (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Portugalia - 1170
Egal - 390
Castiga Finlanda - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Portugalia nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 332 puncte din aceste doua meciuri, adica nu trebuie sa piarda cu Finlanda si sa obtina cel mult un egal cu Armenia.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Portugalia - Armenia X2
Portugalia - Finlanda 2
5. Cehia
17/11/2007: Cehia - Slovacia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Cehia - 1125
Egal - 375
Castiga Slovacia - 0
21/11/2007: Cipru - Cehia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Cehia - 1072,5
Egal - 357,5
Castiga Cipru - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Cehia nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 973 puncte din aceste doua meciuri, adica nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de doua puncte din cele doua meciuri.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Cehia - Slovacia X2
Cipru - Cehia 1X
6. Anglia
16/11/2007: Austria - Anglia (Amical)
Castiga Anglia - 336
Egal - 112
Castiga Austria - 0
21/11/2007: Anglia - Croatia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Anglia - 1425
Egal - 475
Castiga Croatia - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Anglia nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 1326 puncte din aceste doua meciuri, adica nu trebuie sa castige impotriva Croatiei.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Anglia - Croatia X2
7. Croatia
17/11/2007: Macedonia - Croatia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Croatia - 937,5
Egal - 312,5
Castiga Macedonia - 0
21/11/2007: Anglia - Croatia (Preliminarii EURO 2008)
Castiga Croatia - 1417,5
Egal - 472,5
Castiga Anglia - 0
Pentru a fi depasita de Romania, Croatia nu trebuie sa obtina mai mult de 1943 puncte din aceste doua meciuri, adica nu trebuie sa castige ambele meciuri.
De ce rezultate avem nevoie?
Macedonia - Croatia 1x2
Anglia - Croatia 1x2 (doar 1X daca Macedonia pierde in fata Croatiei).
Sa recapitulam:
Anglia - Croatia 1 - Depasim Croatia in clasamentul FIFA
Anglia - Croatia 2 - Depasim Anglia in clasamentul FIFA
Anglia - Croatia X - Depasim Anglia si Croatia in clasamentul FIFA
Sa speram ca Romania va obtine cele sase puncte necesare!
HAI ROMANIA!