Canada set FIFA ranking target

About a month ago, on Oct 28th to be more exact, the Canadian Soccer Association published the "Strategic Plan" and "Strategic Activities" 2009 - 2013.

One goal found in the Strategic Activities document caught my eye: "Men Top 40 World Ranking and Top 3 in CONCACAF".

I did write to Dominique Maestracci (the chairman of the CSA) to offer my help in order to reach their goal.

His answer:

"Dear Sir,
Thanks for your comments.I was aware of the methodology.
D Maestracci.

PS:I hope we will work together for the benefits of Soccer in Canada."

And that's it.

Anyway, since I already did the research, I though I might as well post it since the CSA is not interested.

So, what should Canada do in order to break into the top 40 of the FIFA ranking?

1. Get invited to the UNCAF Nations Cup 2009. UNCAF toyed with the idea of inviting a team in 2007 (Mexico and Venezuela were mentioned), but the negociations broke down. As UNCAF has only 7 teams, they always have a group of 4 and one of 3 teams, thus they need an extra team to balance things out. FIFA considers this tournament as a qualifying competition and the multiplier for FIFA points is 2.5 instead of 1 for a friendly match. Besides improving Canada's ranking (with a decent performance of course), it will also provide much needed experience for your players.
2. Reach the semifinals of the Gold Cup 2009 - another source of points - the multiplier for continental final tournaments is 3.
3. Take advantage of unrealistically high ranked teams. Play friendlies against them and win. For the next FIFA match date (February 11th, 2009), Canada should try to play against one of: Burkina Faso, Macedonia, Latvia, Senegal, Mali, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Slovakia, Guinea, Lithuania, Bolivia.

The UNCAF Nations Cup participation seems already dead in the water. I doubt the CSA ever approached UNCAF to discuss it.

I offered my help, they were not interested. Anyway, good luck!

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

11 februarie 2009 - adversarul ideal (III)

Eliminand echipele care au deja meci pe 11 februarie si echipele din grupa Romaniei, raman 24 de echipe care ne-ar aduce macar 400 de puncte FIFA in cazul unei victorii. In iulie 2008, cand am scris versiunea precendenta, erau 43. FRF ar face bine sa se grabeasca.

Ordinea coloanelor este: locul probabil in clasamentul FIFA din februarie 2009, numele tarii, puncte FIFA pentru Romania in cazul unei victorii tricolore.

7	Croatia	579
9	Rusia	573
12	Cehia	564
14	Ucraina	558
21	Uruguay	531.63
16	Camerun	510.6
32	Scotia	504
33	Polonia	501
34	Ecuador	493.02
23	Nigeria	491.175
43	Slovacia	471
31	Egipt	468.975
37	Ghana	452.325
48	Columbia	451.44
38	Coasta de Fildes	449.55
42	Maroc	438.45
46	Guinea	427.35
47	Mali	424.575
59	Macedonia	423
58	Bolivia	421.74
60	Bosnia-Hertegovina	420
52	Senegal	410.7
64	Tara Galilor	408
66	Letonia	402

Sa luam in calcul si probabilitatea unei victorii, folosind clasamentul ELO.

Pentru un meci acasa:

Ordinea coloanelor: locul probabil in clasamentul FIFA din februarie 2009, numele tarii, puncte FIFA in cazul unei victorii inmultite cu probabilitatea unei victorii a Romaniei.

43	Slovacia	400.24
14	Ucraina	393.83
32	Scotia	389.15
34	Ecuador	381.67
59	Macedonia	378.98
47	Mali	378.54
33	Polonia	374.75
60	Bosnia-Hertegovina	372.31
46	Guinea	370.61
52	Senegal	370.54
66	Letonia	365.26
58	Bolivia	364.04
16	Camerun	364.01
23	Nigeria	357.00
42	Maroc	352.04
37	Ghana	351.07
12	Cehia	350.41
64	Tara Galilor	339.81
38	Coasta de Fildes	336.75
21	Uruguay	336.03
48	Columbia	332.20
7	Croatia	329.24
31	Egipt	327.61
9	Rusia	327.45

Pentru un meci in deplasare:

Ordinea coloanelor: locul probabil in clasamentul FIFA din februarie 2009, numele tarii, puncte FIFA in cazul unei victorii inmultite cu probabilitatea unei victorii a Romaniei.

59	Macedonia	309.37
47	Mali	306.64
52	Senegal	305.86
66	Letonia	305.00
43	Slovacia	302.09
60	Bosnia-Hertegovina	298.92
46	Guinea	287.94
58	Bolivia	280.94
32	Scotia	260.70
34	Ecuador	256.44
64	Tara Galilor	249.60
42	Maroc	246.84
33	Polonia	242.57
14	Ucraina	240.70
37	Ghana	236.57
16	Camerun	224.59
23	Nigeria	224.43
38	Coasta de Fildes	218.31
48	Columbia	211.45
31	Egipt	198.33
12	Cehia	192.65
21	Uruguay	187.14
7	Croatia	170.35
9	Rusia	169.96

Pentru un meci pe teren neutru:

Ordinea coloanelor: locul probabil in clasamentul FIFA din februarie 2009, numele tarii, puncte FIFA in cazul unei victorii inmultite cu probabilitatea unei victorii a Romaniei.

43	Slovacia	358.33
59	Macedonia	350.59
47	Mali	349.08
52	Senegal	344.33
60	Bosnia-Hertegovina	342.08
66	Letonia	341.01
46	Guinea	335.90
32	Scotia	330.53
58	Bolivia	329.01
34	Ecuador	324.61
14	Ucraina	320.45
33	Polonia	313.30
42	Maroc	305.22
64	Tara Galilor	300.69
37	Ghana	298.99
16	Camerun	297.53
23	Nigeria	294.41
38	Coasta de Fildes	281.73
48	Columbia	275.56
12	Cehia	270.64
31	Egipt	265.35
21	Uruguay	261.22
7	Croatia	246.49
9	Rusia	245.55

Cea mai comoda optiune e sa jucam cu Slovacia, Macedonia sau Bosnia-Hertegovina in Cipru. Totusi, ar fi mai bine din punct de vedere al clasamentului FIFA sa jucam cu Ucraina, Scotia sau Polonia.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Malaysia October and November 2008 detailed point totals

I don't get the same value as FIFA does, but that's because there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

The columns are as follows: Match date, Opponents' FIFA trigramme, FIFA match points for Malaysia.

October 2008

"0.2 time frame"

13-Oct-2004	HKG	0
17-Nov-2004	KUW	0
10-Dec-2004	PHI	127.5
12-Dec-2004	MYA	0
14-Dec-2004	THA	326.4
28-Dec-2004	IDN	277.95
3-Jan-2005	IDN	0
15-Jan-2005	MYA	142.8
4-Jun-2005	SIN	0
8-Jun-2005	SIN	0

"0.3 time frame"

19-Feb-2006	NZL	0
23-Feb-2006	NZL	0
31-May-2006	SIN	91.8
3-Jun-2006	SIN	91.8
23-Aug-2006	IDN	45.9
27-Aug-2006	MYA	0

"0.5 time frame"

12-Jan-2007	PHI	127.5
14-Jan-2007	MYA	42.5
16-Jan-2007	THA	0
23-Jan-2007	SIN	62.9
27-Jan-2007	SIN	62.9
24-Mar-2007	SRI	135.15
26-Mar-2007	SRI	0
18-Jun-2007	CAM	127.5
21-Jun-2007	UAE	0
28-Jun-2007	JAM	0
10-Jul-2007	CHN	0
14-Jul-2007	UZB	0
18-Jul-2007	IRN	0

"1.0 time frame"

21-Oct-2007	BHR	0
28-Oct-2007	BHR	221
6-Jun-2008	IDN	60.35
22-Jul-2008	IND	42.5

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4	874.65	10	0.2	17.493
-3	229.5	6	0.3	11.475
-2	558.45	13	0.5	21.47885
-1	323.85	5	1	64.77

For the last 12-month time frame, Malaysia only have 4 matches, but FIFA requires a minimum of 5, so the total is divided by 5 instead of 4.

My total: 115.2168462. FIFA has 109. However, my software makes adjustments based on previous month differences and Malaysia had 109 in my final October 2008 FIFA ranking preview.

November 2008

"0.2 time frame"

17-Nov-2004	KUW	0
10-Dec-2004	PHI	127.5
12-Dec-2004	MYA	0
14-Dec-2004	THA	326.4
28-Dec-2004	IDN	277.95
3-Jan-2005	IDN	0
15-Jan-2005	MYA	142.8
4-Jun-2005	SIN	0
8-Jun-2005	SIN	0

"0.3 time frame"

19-Feb-2006	NZL	0
23-Feb-2006	NZL	0
31-May-2006	SIN	91.8
3-Jun-2006	SIN	91.8
23-Aug-2006	IDN	45.9
27-Aug-2006	MYA	0

"0.5 time frame"

12-Jan-2007	PHI	127.5
14-Jan-2007	MYA	42.5
16-Jan-2007	THA	0
23-Jan-2007	SIN	62.9
27-Jan-2007	SIN	62.9
24-Mar-2007	SRI	135.15
26-Mar-2007	SRI	0
18-Jun-2007	CAM	127.5
21-Jun-2007	UAE	0
28-Jun-2007	JAM	0
10-Jul-2007	CHN	0
14-Jul-2007	UZB	0
18-Jul-2007	IRN	0
21-Oct-2007	BHR	0
28-Oct-2007	BHR	221

"1.0 time frame"

6-Jun-2008	IDN	60.35
22-Jul-2008	IND	42.5
10-Oct-2008	PAK	127.5
15-Oct-2008	NEP	127.5
20-Oct-2008	AFG	127.5
23-Oct-2008	MYA	127.5

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4	874.65	9	0.2	19.43667
-3	229.5	6	0.3	11.475
-2	779.45	15	0.5	25.98167
-1	612.85	6	1	102.1417

My total: 159.035. FIFA has 152. The adjusted value computed by my software was 153 as you can see in the November 2008 FIFA ranking preview.

Malaysia total rised because:

You dropped the defeat against Hong Kong (13 Oct 2004), so the average of the "0.2 time frame" increased.
Two matches against Bahrain (21 and 28 Oct 2007) dropped from 1.0 to 0.5 increasing the average of the 0.5 time frame.
You won 4 friendlies so the average of the last 12 months increased.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (19 November 2008)

The coefficients for the EURO 2012 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2006 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2008 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2010 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams (Poland (24960) and Ukraine (23026) - automatically qualified as hosts).

Only one match played: San Marino - Czech Republic 0 - 3. The Czechs climb 4 places to 7th.

Current ranking - Previous ranking - Team - Points

 1  1 Spain              32484
 2  2 Germany            31633
 3  3 Italy              30097
 4  4 Netherlands        30045
 5  5 England            28478
 6  6 Croatia            28436
 7 11 Czech Republic     27111
 8  7 Turkey             26647
 9  8 Greece             26425
------------------------------
10  9 Portugal           26319
11 10 Russia             25986
12 12 Sweden             25355
13 13 France             25231
14 14 Romania            25025
15 15 Israel             24711
16 16 Switzerland        24614
17 17 Serbia             24451
18 18 Denmark            23481
------------------------------
19 19 Slovakia           22848
20 20 Scotland           22771
21 21 Bulgaria           22718
22 22 Norway             22135
23 23 Ireland            22028
24 24 Finland            21187
25 25 Lithuania          20951
26 26 Belgium            20405
27 27 Austria            20360
------------------------------
28 28 Northern Ireland   20058
29 29 Bosnia-Herzegovina 20025
30 30 Hungary            19447
31 31 Wales              18954
32 32 Slovenia           18761
33 33 Latvia             18003
34 34 Albania            17679
35 35 Macedonia          17534
36 36 Belarus            17394
------------------------------
37 37 Georgia            15599
38 38 Cyprus             15591
39 39 Moldova            15074
40 40 Estonia            15072
41 41 Iceland            15004
42 42 Kazakhstan         13770
43 43 Armenia            13664
44 44 Liechtenstein      13441
45 45 Azerbaijan         12060
------------------------------
46 46 Montenegro         11950
47 47 Luxembourg         11812
48 48 Malta              11417
49 49 Andorra             9697
50 50 Faroe Islands       9640
51 51 San Marino          8483

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: December 2008 preview (I)

Update: Fixed Serbia's total. Thanks samacado!
______________________________________________

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Included: matches played up to and including November 19th.

Still to play: Digicel Caribbean Championship final tournament, AFF Suzuki Cup and a couple of friendlies. These matches should not affect the top 50.

I will post at least one update before December 11th.

Netherlands up to 3rd, replacing Italy.
England continue to rise - up to 8th.
Turkey return to the top 10.
Czechia, France and Portugal - tied for 11th place.

So far, the best movers are Fiji - 32 places, followed by Kenya with 20 and three countries climbing 13 places: Bolivia, Uganda and Cyprus.

On the other end, New Zealand goes down 24 places, Belarus 22, Moldova and Eritrea 21.

Best movers in the top 50

11 - Korea Republic
9 - Australia
6 - Honduras and Hungary
5 - Ukraine, Egypt and Chile
4 - Saudi Arabia and Mali

Worst movers in the top 50

-11 - Bulgaria
-10 - Northern Ireland
-9 - Colombia
-8 - Finland
-6 - FYR Macedonia and Lithuania

1	Spain	1662	0	5
2	Germany	1381	0	-32
3	Netherlands	1338	1	32
4	Italy	1326	-1	-30
5	Brazil	1246	0	-40
6	Argentina	1180	0	-1
7	Croatia	1142	0	-16
8	England	1115	2	57
9	Russia	1103	-1	24
10	Turkey	1016	3	-16
11	Czech Republic	1007	-2	-55
11	France	1007	1	-28
11	Portugal	1007	-1	-51
14	Cameroon	988	0	-25
15	Ukraine	907	5	24
16	Egypt	894	5	15
17	Paraguay	889	0	-45
18	Israel	878	-3	-126
19	Nigeria	876	3	24
20	Greece	872	-2	-35
21	Romania	858	-2	-34
22	USA	853	2	19
23	Uruguay	828	0	-10
24	Switzerland	823	3	24
25	Ghana	817	1	12
26	Mexico	811	-1	-16
27	Bulgaria	781	-11	-170
28	Australia	776	9	37
29	Côte d'Ivoire	771	-1	-9
30	Serbia	764	0	-11
31	Chile	758	4	5
32	Sweden	750	-3	-26
33	Scotland	739	0	-22
34	Poland	735	-2	-30
35	Japan	731	3	9
36	Ecuador	729	-5	-42
37	Denmark	717	-3	-40
38	Republic of Ireland	711	-2	-40
39	Guinea	702	0	11
40	Honduras	690	6	67
41	Morocco	649	2	3
42	Korea Republic	630	11	41
43	Iran	627	1	-15
44	Slovakia	620	1	-7
45	Mali	616	4	13
46	Tunisia	605	1	-8
47	Lithuania	604	-6	-73
48	Saudi Arabia	603	4	13
49	Colombia	601	-9	-85
50	Hungary	600	6	49
51	Senegal	586	0	-7
52	Northern Ireland	580	-10	-90
53	Costa Rica	578	4	36
54	Belgium	546	1	-25
55	FYR Macedonia	534	-6	-69
56	Finland	533	-8	-78
57	Slovenia	531	1	-10
58	Bolivia	528	13	65
59	Norway	526	-5	-46
60	Wales	523	2	5
61	Bosnia-Herzegovina	517	6	25
62	Burkina Faso	512	-1	-9
62	Gabon	512	-3	-23
64	Algeria	501	-1	-13
65	Kenya	489	20	76
66	Venezuela	486	0	-11
67	Congo	484	2	9
68	Latvia	483	-3	-17
69	Angola	482	-1	6
70	Uganda	470	13	49
71	Uzbekistan	468	5	19
72	Peru	466	-2	2
73	Jamaica	464	10	43
74	Zambia	463	-3	0
75	South Africa	461	5	19
76	Iraq	459	-1	7
77	Rwanda	450	10	44
77	Trinidad and Tobago	450	1	7
79	Cuba	444	-6	-16
80	Bahrain	427	-6	-26
81	Albania	423	5	13
81	Libya	423	7	18
83	Iceland	421	-1	-2
84	New Zealand	419	-24	-113
84	Togo	419	7	23
86	Belarus	417	-22	-90
87	Qatar	415	-9	-28
88	Gambia	413	2	13
89	Panama	411	0	7
90	Canada	409	-9	-25
91	Congo DR	401	3	13
92	Austria	388	0	-3
93	Sudan	385	8	25
94	Cyprus	377	13	40
95	Mozambique	375	-3	-16
96	Oman	374	-1	-11
97	Moldova	373	-21	-76
97	Zimbabwe	373	0	-2
99	Tanzania	371	6	30
100	China PR	367	-2	-4
101	Benin	362	-6	-23
102	Ethiopia	350	0	2
103	Malawi	343	0	-3
104	Syria	339	0	-5
105	Fiji	333	32	133
106	Cape Verde Islands	331	5	28
107	Guatemala	328	1	7
108	Georgia	327	-9	-36
109	Haiti	320	-4	-21
110	United Arab Emirates	317	3	18
111	El Salvador	314	-2	8
112	Montenegro	310	3	25
113	Armenia	303	-3	-1
113	Korea DPR	303	-1	2
115	Namibia	287	-1	-3
116	Sierra Leone	286	8	33
117	Barbados	285	-17	-76
118	Botswana	282	1	3
119	Chad	260	4	0
120	Luxembourg	259	7	14
121	Equatorial Guinea	258	-1	-18
121	Estonia	258	10	23
123	Antigua and Barbuda	251	10	35
124	Bermuda	250	2	-1
124	Jordan	250	-6	-32
126	Thailand	245	-10	-38
127	Kuwait	238	1	-5
128	Suriname	231	1	-8
129	New Caledonia	229	-8	-46
130	Guyana	224	-14	-59
131	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	221	-9	-45
132	Singapore	218	4	11
133	Burundi	211	-3	-26
134	Azerbaijan	209	0	1
135	Madagascar	207	-1	-1
136	Kazakhstan	199	-11	-53
137	Indonesia	196	-5	-25
138	Swaziland	190	2	9
139	Grenada	185	0	-14
140	Liberia	179	2	0
141	Vanuatu	176	2	1
142	Puerto Rico	175	-1	-5
143	Niger	168	4	10
144	India	165	0	-9
145	Tajikistan	162	1	-1
145	Yemen	162	0	-7
147	Malta	151	3	-2
148	Turkmenistan	150	0	-6
149	Liechtenstein	147	3	2
150	Lebanon	146	-1	-8
151	Hong Kong	138	5	14
152	Malaysia	135	-1	-17
153	Netherlands Antilles	128	2	0
153	St. Kitts and Nevis	128	10	23
155	Maldives	126	-2	-7
156	Myanmar	115	2	-1
157	Mauritania	112	3	0
158	Eritrea	109	-21	-91
159	Philippines	107	-2	-11
160	Lesotho	106	1	-3
161	Laos	102	1	-6
161	Vietnam	102	-2	-13
163	Kyrgyzstan	101	-9	-28
164	Solomon Islands	100	1	0
164	Sri Lanka	100	2	9
166	Pakistan	92	2	2
167	Seychelles	91	-1	0
168	Chinese Taipei	85	2	3
169	Turks and Caicos Islands	83	0	0
170	Bahamas	74	1	-7
170	Mauritius	74	3	0
172	Cayman Islands	73	-8	-28
173	Belize	71	3	0
173	Cambodia	71	1	-1
173	Nepal	71	4	4
176	Bangladesh	70	5	16
177	Samoa	64	3	0
177	St. Lucia	64	-5	-11
179	Palestine	53	4	6
180	British Virgin Islands	49	-3	-18
181	Afghanistan	45	2	-2
181	Brunei Darussalam	45	1	-7
181	Nicaragua	45	4	0
184	Faroe Islands	42	2	5
185	Dominican Republic	40	-6	-26
186	Guinea-Bissau	39	-12	-33
187	Bhutan	33	0	1
188	Djibouti	32	-1	0
188	Tahiti	32	-1	0
188	Tonga	32	-1	0
191	Dominica	25	0	0
192	Mongolia	24	0	0
193	Aruba	22	0	0
194	Andorra	20	0	1
195	US Virgin Islands	17	0	0
196	Macau	10	1	0
197	Timor-Leste	9	1	0
198	Comoros	8	-2	-5
199	Central African Republic	6	1	0
200	Somalia	5	-1	-3
201	American Samoa	0	0	0
201	Anguilla	0	0	0
201	Cook Islands	0	0	0
201	Guam	0	0	0
201	Montserrat	0	0	0
201	Papua New Guinea	0	0	0
201	San Marino	0	0	0

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.