If FIFA will use the same formula as in 2006 to determine the seeds for the 2010 FIFA World Cup, they might be forced to postpone the November 2009 release. As of now, it's scheduled for November 11th, but this means the last two match days (14 and 18 November) will not be included in the calculation.
The UEFA playoffs (between the 8 best runners-up) and the intercontinental playoffs (CONMEBOL vs. CONCACAF and AFC vs. OFC) will be played on those dates. Also, the last match day of the CAF qualifiers is scheduled for November 14.
With the final draw taking place on December 4th in Cape Town, they can't use the December ranking (to be published on December 16th). And bringing the December release date forward doesn't seem to be an option.
Most likely, they will postpone the November 2009 ranking, from November 11th to November 20th, as they did in 2007, in order to use the November 2007 for the preliminary World Cup draw.
Friday, February 20, 2009
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
February 2009: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings
Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)
Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:
Matches I would have liked to see on February 11th:
Iran - Northern Ireland
Venezuela - Slovenia
Colombia - Hungary
Wales - Macedonia
Denmark - Slovakia
Jamaica - Burkina Faso
Finland - Mali
Norway - Bosnia-Herzegovina
Chile - Israel
Saudi Arabia - Lithuania
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| Montenegro | 111 | 52 | 59 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 188 | 139 | 49 |
| Central African Republic | 200 | 154 | 46 |
| Solomon Islands | 163 | 119 | 44 |
| Tahiti | 190 | 149 | 41 |
| Jordan | 126 | 87 | 39 |
| Syria | 96 | 61 | 35 |
| Korea DPR | 119 | 84 | 35 |
| Papua New Guinea | 201 | 166 | 35 |
| Palestine | 180 | 146 | 34 |
Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| Luxembourg | 120 | 171 | -51 |
| Bermuda | 116 | 155 | -39 |
| Nicaragua | 132 | 169 | -37 |
| Gambia | 73 | 110 | -37 |
| Congo | 69 | 103 | -34 |
| Burkina Faso | 62 | 95 | -33 |
| Puerto Rico | 144 | 176 | -32 |
| Philippines | 164 | 193 | -29 |
| Sierra Leone | 109 | 137 | -28 |
| Algeria | 66 | 94 | -28 |
| Northern Ireland | 49 | 77 | -28 |
Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)
Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| Iran | 44 | 23 | 21 |
| Venezuela | 67 | 47 | 20 |
| Colombia | 51 | 34 | 17 |
| Wales | 65 | 49 | 16 |
| Denmark | 34 | 19 | 15 |
| Jamaica | 64 | 50 | 14 |
| Finland | 61 | 48 | 13 |
| Norway | 56 | 44 | 12 |
| Chile | 31 | 21 | 10 |
| Saudi Arabia | 55 | 45 | 10 |
Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:
| Northern Ireland | 49 | 77 | -28 |
| Mali | 47 | 71 | -24 |
| Israel | 18 | 36 | -18 |
| Guinea | 45 | 59 | -14 |
| Hungary | 43 | 56 | -13 |
| Slovakia | 42 | 55 | -13 |
| Panama | 50 | 62 | -12 |
| Cameroon | 16 | 28 | -12 |
| Ukraine | 14 | 24 | -10 |
| Scotland | 32 | 41 | -9 |
| Nigeria | 23 | 32 | -9 |
Matches I would have liked to see on February 11th:
Iran - Northern Ireland
Venezuela - Slovenia
Colombia - Hungary
Wales - Macedonia
Denmark - Slovakia
Jamaica - Burkina Faso
Finland - Mali
Norway - Bosnia-Herzegovina
Chile - Israel
Saudi Arabia - Lithuania
Friday, February 13, 2009
2010 WC: Seeding formula based on the latest FIFA Rankings (11 February 2009)
Qualified teams determined using only the latest FIFA rankings.
Romania/Costa Rica replace Greece/Honduras.
The pots:
Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Croatia, Czech Republic, Israel, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Turkey
Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, USA
Pot 4: Cameroon, Chile, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay
Possible draw (using random.org):
Group A: South Africa, Croatia, Mexico, Paraguay
Group B: Argentina, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Cote d'Ivoire
Group C: Spain, Israel, Japan, Cameroon
Group D: Brazil, Czech Republic, Iran, Nigeria
Group E: France, Turkey, Korea Republic, Egypt
Group F: Italy, Romania, Costa Rica, Chile
Group G: England, Netherlands, USA, Ghana
Group H: Germany, Portugal, Australia, Uruguay
Romania/Costa Rica replace Greece/Honduras.
1 Germany 60.3 30.3 30.0Top 7 + South Africa seeded.
2 Brazil 58.3 29.3 29.0
3 Italy 56.7 27.3 29.3
4 Spain 56.3 25.3 31.0
5 England 50.3 26.3 24.0
6 Argentina 49.7 21.0 28.7
7 France 46.0 23.3 22.7
--------------------------------
8 Portugal 44.3 22.3 22.0
9 Netherlands 42.7 14.7 28.0
10 Croatia 34.0 9.0 25.0
11 Mexico 33.3 19.3 14.0
12 Turkey 31.7 10.0 21.7
13 Czech Republic 29.3 6.0 23.3
14 USA 29.0 13.7 15.3
15 Paraguay 29.0 11.7 17.3
16 Russia 24.0 3.0 21.0
17 Ghana 21.7 13.3 8.3
18 Japan 21.0 13.3 7.7
19 Korea Republic 20.7 15.7 5.0
20 Cameroon 20.0 3.0 17.0
21 Australia 19.3 11.3 8.0
22 Nigeria 17.7 2.7 15.0
23 Romania 17.3 0.0 17.3
24 Uruguay 15.3 2.7 12.7
25 Israel 15.0 0.0 15.0
26 Cote d'Ivoire 14.3 6.0 8.3
27 Egypt 12.3 0.0 12.3
28 Costa Rica 11.3 8.3 3.0
29 Saudi Arabia 10.7 8.0 2.7
30 Iran 10.7 5.3 5.3
31 Chile 7.0 0.0 7.0
32 South Africa 4.0 3.0 1.0
The pots:
Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Croatia, Czech Republic, Israel, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Turkey
Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, USA
Pot 4: Cameroon, Chile, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay
Possible draw (using random.org):
Group A: South Africa, Croatia, Mexico, Paraguay
Group B: Argentina, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Cote d'Ivoire
Group C: Spain, Israel, Japan, Cameroon
Group D: Brazil, Czech Republic, Iran, Nigeria
Group E: France, Turkey, Korea Republic, Egypt
Group F: Italy, Romania, Costa Rica, Chile
Group G: England, Netherlands, USA, Ghana
Group H: Germany, Portugal, Australia, Uruguay
2010 WC: Seeding formula based on current standings (11 February 2009)
Seeded teams for the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa.
Qualified teams determined using the current standings (including matches played on February 11th) and the FIFA rankings.
Korea DPR/Costa Rica/Trinidad and Tobago replace New Zealand/Mexico/Honduras
The pots:
Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Israel, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Turkey
Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Iran, Japan, Korea DPR, Korea Republic, USA, Trinidad and Tobago
Pot 4: Cameroon, Chile, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay
Possible draw (using random.org):
Group A: South Africa, Israel, Costa Rica, Chile
Group B: England, Turkey, USA, Cameroon
Group C: Spain, Slovakia, Korea DPR, Paraguay
Group D: Brazil, Denmark, Australia, Ghana
Group E: Argentina, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, Egypt
Group F: Italy, Croatia, Japan, Uruguay
Group G: Germany, Serbia, Iran, Nigeria
Group H: Netherlands, Greece, Korea Republic, Cote d'Ivoire
Qualified teams determined using the current standings (including matches played on February 11th) and the FIFA rankings.
Korea DPR/Costa Rica/Trinidad and Tobago replace New Zealand/Mexico/Honduras
1 Germany 60.3 30.3 30.0Top 7 + South Africa seeded.
2 Brazil 58.3 29.3 29.0
3 Italy 56.7 27.3 29.3
4 Spain 56.3 25.3 31.0
5 England 51.0 26.3 24.7
6 Argentina 49.7 21.0 28.7
7 Netherlands 43.7 14.7 29.0
-------------------------------------
8 Croatia 35.0 9.0 26.0
9 Turkey 33.0 10.0 23.0
10 USA 31.7 13.7 18.0
11 Paraguay 31.3 11.7 19.7
12 Ghana 25.3 13.3 12.0
13 Russia 25.3 3.0 22.3
14 Japan 24.0 13.3 10.7
15 Cameroon 23.7 3.0 20.7
16 Korea Republic 23.0 15.7 7.3
17 Nigeria 22.3 2.7 19.7
18 Australia 21.7 11.3 10.3
19 Greece 19.7 0.0 19.7
20 Cote d'Ivoire 18.3 6.0 12.3
21 Israel 18.0 0.0 18.0
22 Denmark 17.7 7.7 10.0
23 Uruguay 17.7 2.7 15.0
24 Egypt 17.7 0.0 17.7
25 Serbia 17.3 5.3 12.0
26 Costa Rica 13.3 8.3 5.0
27 Iran 12.0 5.3 6.7
28 Chile 9.3 0.0 9.3
29 Trinidad and Tobago 7.3 5.3 2.0
30 South Africa 6.0 3.0 3.0
31 Slovakia 5.0 0.0 5.0
32 Korea DPR 1.0 0.0 1.0
The pots:
Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Israel, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Turkey
Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Iran, Japan, Korea DPR, Korea Republic, USA, Trinidad and Tobago
Pot 4: Cameroon, Chile, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay
Possible draw (using random.org):
Group A: South Africa, Israel, Costa Rica, Chile
Group B: England, Turkey, USA, Cameroon
Group C: Spain, Slovakia, Korea DPR, Paraguay
Group D: Brazil, Denmark, Australia, Ghana
Group E: Argentina, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, Egypt
Group F: Italy, Croatia, Japan, Uruguay
Group G: Germany, Serbia, Iran, Nigeria
Group H: Netherlands, Greece, Korea Republic, Cote d'Ivoire
EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (11 February 2009)
The coefficients for the EURO 2012 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2006 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2008 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2010 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams (Poland (24960) and Ukraine (23026) - automatically qualified as hosts).
Three matches played: Republic of Ireland - Georgia 2 - 1, San Marino - Northern Ireland 0 - 3 and Malta - Albania 0 - 0. The Irish teams both climb 4 spots and are now in the same pot, as Northern Ireland jumped to the 3rd pot.
2006 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2008 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2010 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams (Poland (24960) and Ukraine (23026) - automatically qualified as hosts).
Three matches played: Republic of Ireland - Georgia 2 - 1, San Marino - Northern Ireland 0 - 3 and Malta - Albania 0 - 0. The Irish teams both climb 4 spots and are now in the same pot, as Northern Ireland jumped to the 3rd pot.
1 1 Spain 32484
2 2 Germany 31633
3 3 Italy 30097
4 4 Netherlands 30045
5 5 England 28478
6 6 Croatia 28436
7 7 Czech Republic 27111
8 8 Turkey 26647
9 9 Greece 26425
------------------------------
10 10 Portugal 26319
11 11 Russia 25986
12 12 Sweden 25355
13 13 France 25231
14 14 Romania 25025
15 15 Israel 24711
16 16 Switzerland 24614
17 17 Serbia 24451
18 18 Denmark 23481
------------------------------
19 23 Ireland 23248
20 19 Slovakia 22848
21 20 Scotland 22771
22 21 Bulgaria 22718
23 22 Norway 22135
24 28 Northern Ireland 21318
25 24 Finland 21187
26 25 Lithuania 20951
27 26 Belgium 20405
------------------------------
28 27 Austria 20360
29 29 Bosnia-Herzegovina 20025
30 30 Hungary 19447
31 31 Wales 18954
32 32 Slovenia 18761
33 34 Albania 18079
34 33 Latvia 18003
35 35 Macedonia 17534
36 36 Belarus 17394
------------------------------
37 38 Cyprus 15591
38 37 Georgia 15579
39 39 Moldova 15074
40 40 Estonia 15072
41 41 Iceland 15004
42 42 Kazakhstan 13770
43 43 Armenia 13664
44 44 Liechtenstein 13441
45 45 Azerbaijan 12060
------------------------------
46 46 Montenegro 11950
47 48 Malta 11817
48 47 Luxembourg 11812
49 49 Andorra 9697
50 50 Faroe Islands 9640
51 51 San Marino 8423
FIFA Ranking: March 2009 preview (II)
Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.
Only one match left until the deadline for the March 2009 ranking: Australia - Kuwait on March 5th - Asian Cup 2011 qualifier. Obviously, these are the only countries that will change their total points as follows: Australia (W: 756, D: 735, L:724), Kuwait (W: 298, D:257, L:236).
Portugal return to the top 10.
Best movers:
16 - Equatorial Guinea
12 - Cyprus and Korea DPR
11 - Norway and Kazakhstan
Worst movers:
-11: Slovakia
-8: Grenada and Nicaragua
-7 - Austria
Lebanon will return to their worst ever ranking - 151st, first achieved in October 2008. Same goes for Mongolia, back to 193rd, first achieved in in December 2002.
Five countries will have their worst ever ranking:
Denmark (38th - 37th in December 2008)
Congo DR (95th - 94th in September 2008)
Zimbabwe (102nd - 101st in August 2007)
United Arab Emirates (115th - 114th in January 2009)
Kuwait (129th - 128th in November 2008)
Best movers in the top 50
11 - Norway
7 - Northern Ireland
6 - Costa Rica
4- Scotland, Colombia, Belgium
Worst movers in the top 50
-11 - Slovakia
-5 - Hungary, Guinea
-4 - Denmark, Lithuania
March 2009 rank - Team - March 2009 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
Only one match left until the deadline for the March 2009 ranking: Australia - Kuwait on March 5th - Asian Cup 2011 qualifier. Obviously, these are the only countries that will change their total points as follows: Australia (W: 756, D: 735, L:724), Kuwait (W: 298, D:257, L:236).
Portugal return to the top 10.
Best movers:
16 - Equatorial Guinea
12 - Cyprus and Korea DPR
11 - Norway and Kazakhstan
Worst movers:
-11: Slovakia
-8: Grenada and Nicaragua
-7 - Austria
Lebanon will return to their worst ever ranking - 151st, first achieved in October 2008. Same goes for Mongolia, back to 193rd, first achieved in in December 2002.
Five countries will have their worst ever ranking:
Denmark (38th - 37th in December 2008)
Congo DR (95th - 94th in September 2008)
Zimbabwe (102nd - 101st in August 2007)
United Arab Emirates (115th - 114th in January 2009)
Kuwait (129th - 128th in November 2008)
Best movers in the top 50
11 - Norway
7 - Northern Ireland
6 - Costa Rica
4- Scotland, Colombia, Belgium
Worst movers in the top 50
-11 - Slovakia
-5 - Hungary, Guinea
-4 - Denmark, Lithuania
March 2009 rank - Team - March 2009 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Spain | 1666 | 0 | -27 |
| 2 | Germany | 1366 | 0 | -37 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 1317 | 0 | -40 |
| 4 | Italy | 1284 | 0 | -34 |
| 5 | Brazil | 1260 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Argentina | 1219 | 0 | 38 |
| 7 | Croatia | 1169 | 0 | -6 |
| 8 | Russia | 1128 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | England | 1083 | -1 | -53 |
| 10 | Portugal | 1025 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | Turkey | 1010 | -1 | -30 |
| 12 | France | 1004 | -1 | -22 |
| 13 | Czech Republic | 998 | -1 | -22 |
| 14 | Ukraine | 927 | 0 | -5 |
| 15 | Paraguay | 908 | 0 | -15 |
| 16 | Cameroon | 900 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | USA | 896 | 3 | 38 |
| 18 | Israel | 887 | 0 | 10 |
| 19 | Greece | 863 | 0 | -1 |
| 20 | Romania | 849 | -3 | -31 |
| 21 | Uruguay | 836 | 1 | -13 |
| 22 | Switzerland | 831 | -1 | -26 |
| 23 | Mexico | 784 | 1 | -7 |
| 24 | Nigeria | 783 | -1 | -44 |
| 25 | Sweden | 780 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | Republic of Ireland | 772 | 3 | 25 |
| 27 | Bulgaria | 756 | -1 | -16 |
| 28 | Scotland | 755 | 4 | 16 |
| 29 | Australia | 752 | -2 | -8 |
| 30 | Poland | 747 | -2 | -7 |
| 31 | Chile | 739 | 0 | -4 |
| 32 | Costa Rica | 728 | 6 | 34 |
| 33 | Egypt | 727 | -3 | -17 |
| 34 | Ghana | 717 | 1 | 3 |
| 35 | Japan | 709 | 2 | 12 |
| 36 | Serbia | 708 | -3 | -29 |
| 37 | Côte d'Ivoire | 704 | -1 | -5 |
| 38 | Denmark | 700 | -4 | -24 |
| 39 | Ecuador | 695 | 1 | 4 |
| 40 | Honduras | 674 | -1 | -19 |
| 41 | Morocco | 638 | 0 | -18 |
| 42 | Iran | 618 | 2 | -5 |
| 42 | Northern Ireland | 618 | 7 | 25 |
| 44 | Korea Republic | 617 | 2 | 9 |
| 45 | Norway | 615 | 11 | 62 |
| 46 | Mali | 605 | 1 | 4 |
| 47 | Colombia | 599 | 4 | 15 |
| 48 | Hungary | 595 | -5 | -34 |
| 49 | Belgium | 591 | 4 | 23 |
| 50 | Guinea | 582 | -5 | -29 |
| 51 | Panama | 578 | -1 | -8 |
| 52 | Lithuania | 573 | -4 | -22 |
| 53 | Slovakia | 569 | -11 | -66 |
| 54 | Tunisia | 560 | -1 | -8 |
| 55 | Saudi Arabia | 541 | 0 | -14 |
| 56 | Bolivia | 537 | 1 | 0 |
| 57 | Finland | 534 | 4 | 11 |
| 58 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 529 | 1 | -6 |
| 58 | Slovenia | 529 | -6 | -43 |
| 60 | Senegal | 526 | 0 | -8 |
| 61 | FYR Macedonia | 525 | -4 | -12 |
| 62 | Congo | 507 | 7 | 21 |
| 63 | Gabon | 505 | 0 | -9 |
| 64 | Algeria | 501 | 2 | 4 |
| 65 | Venezuela | 498 | 2 | 6 |
| 66 | Burkina Faso | 495 | -4 | -25 |
| 67 | Bahrain | 483 | 7 | 27 |
| 68 | Wales | 482 | -3 | -21 |
| 69 | Uganda | 478 | 2 | 0 |
| 70 | Jamaica | 476 | -6 | -32 |
| 71 | Latvia | 471 | -4 | -21 |
| 72 | South Africa | 469 | -2 | -16 |
| 73 | Gambia | 465 | 0 | 0 |
| 74 | Uzbekistan | 449 | -2 | -27 |
| 75 | Trinidad and Tobago | 441 | 3 | 2 |
| 76 | Iceland | 440 | 1 | -3 |
| 77 | Peru | 431 | -1 | -21 |
| 78 | Angola | 430 | -3 | -23 |
| 79 | New Zealand | 424 | 3 | 5 |
| 80 | Albania | 421 | -1 | -14 |
| 81 | Oman | 419 | 6 | 19 |
| 82 | Sudan | 412 | 2 | 0 |
| 83 | Iraq | 411 | 2 | 4 |
| 83 | Libya | 411 | -3 | -21 |
| 85 | Rwanda | 406 | 1 | 0 |
| 86 | Cyprus | 405 | 12 | 39 |
| 87 | Benin | 397 | -6 | -26 |
| 88 | Belarus | 395 | 2 | 0 |
| 89 | Qatar | 394 | 2 | 6 |
| 90 | Austria | 393 | -7 | -23 |
| 91 | Togo | 384 | -3 | -13 |
| 92 | Zambia | 383 | 0 | 2 |
| 93 | Canada | 379 | -5 | -18 |
| 94 | Mozambique | 377 | 1 | 5 |
| 95 | Congo DR | 373 | -1 | 0 |
| 96 | Kenya | 367 | 0 | 0 |
| 97 | Syria | 366 | -1 | -1 |
| 98 | Moldova | 362 | 1 | 0 |
| 99 | Cuba | 360 | -6 | -20 |
| 100 | China PR | 354 | 4 | 15 |
| 101 | Ethiopia | 348 | 0 | 0 |
| 102 | Zimbabwe | 345 | -2 | -4 |
| 103 | Tanzania | 336 | 0 | -5 |
| 104 | Fiji | 333 | 1 | 0 |
| 105 | Cape Verde Islands | 332 | 1 | 0 |
| 106 | El Salvador | 328 | 1 | -1 |
| 107 | Korea DPR | 325 | 12 | 45 |
| 108 | Equatorial Guinea | 317 | 16 | 61 |
| 108 | Malawi | 317 | -6 | -25 |
| 110 | Sierra Leone | 315 | -1 | 0 |
| 111 | Georgia | 314 | -3 | -13 |
| 112 | Montenegro | 310 | -1 | 0 |
| 113 | Guatemala | 306 | -3 | -8 |
| 114 | Namibia | 297 | -1 | 0 |
| 115 | United Arab Emirates | 295 | -1 | -1 |
| 116 | Haiti | 293 | -4 | -9 |
| 117 | Bermuda | 292 | -1 | 0 |
| 117 | Thailand | 292 | 0 | 7 |
| 119 | Armenia | 285 | 2 | 7 |
| 120 | Botswana | 283 | -2 | 0 |
| 121 | Luxembourg | 280 | -1 | 1 |
| 122 | Grenada | 279 | -8 | -17 |
| 123 | Antigua and Barbuda | 272 | -1 | 7 |
| 124 | Chad | 263 | 2 | 17 |
| 125 | Estonia | 259 | -3 | -6 |
| 126 | Jordan | 257 | 0 | 11 |
| 127 | Guyana | 255 | 6 | 37 |
| 128 | Barbados | 244 | 0 | 2 |
| 129 | Kazakhstan | 243 | 11 | 37 |
| 129 | Kuwait | 243 | -4 | -4 |
| 131 | Suriname | 231 | -2 | 0 |
| 132 | New Caledonia | 229 | -2 | 0 |
| 132 | Singapore | 229 | -1 | 3 |
| 134 | Azerbaijan | 217 | 2 | 4 |
| 134 | Burundi | 217 | 0 | 0 |
| 136 | Vietnam | 216 | -1 | 0 |
| 137 | Indonesia | 210 | 0 | 0 |
| 138 | Madagascar | 209 | 1 | 2 |
| 139 | Swaziland | 208 | -1 | -1 |
| 140 | Nicaragua | 195 | -8 | -26 |
| 141 | Hong Kong | 181 | 2 | 7 |
| 142 | Liberia | 179 | -1 | 0 |
| 143 | Vanuatu | 176 | -1 | 0 |
| 143 | Yemen | 176 | 3 | 13 |
| 145 | Puerto Rico | 170 | -1 | 0 |
| 146 | Malta | 169 | 8 | 35 |
| 147 | Niger | 168 | -2 | 0 |
| 148 | Tajikistan | 166 | -1 | 4 |
| 149 | India | 156 | -1 | -5 |
| 150 | Mauritania | 149 | 0 | 0 |
| 151 | Lebanon | 145 | -2 | -5 |
| 152 | Liechtenstein | 144 | -1 | -3 |
| 153 | Netherlands Antilles | 142 | -1 | 0 |
| 154 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 139 | -1 | 0 |
| 155 | Kyrgyzstan | 134 | 4 | 22 |
| 156 | Turkmenistan | 131 | -1 | 0 |
| 157 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 130 | -1 | 0 |
| 158 | Maldives | 126 | -1 | 0 |
| 159 | Myanmar | 121 | -1 | 0 |
| 160 | Eritrea | 108 | 0 | 0 |
| 161 | Malaysia | 107 | 0 | 3 |
| 162 | Lesotho | 105 | 0 | 2 |
| 163 | Solomon Islands | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| 164 | Philippines | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| 164 | Sri Lanka | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| 166 | Pakistan | 87 | 0 | -2 |
| 167 | Chinese Taipei | 81 | 0 | -4 |
| 168 | Cayman Islands | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 169 | Bahamas | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| 170 | Laos | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 171 | Seychelles | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 172 | Nepal | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| 173 | Mauritius | 69 | -4 | -5 |
| 174 | Bangladesh | 65 | 0 | -3 |
| 174 | Palestine | 65 | 6 | 10 |
| 176 | Samoa | 64 | -1 | 0 |
| 176 | St. Lucia | 64 | -1 | 0 |
| 178 | Belize | 62 | -1 | 0 |
| 179 | Somalia | 57 | -1 | 0 |
| 180 | Cambodia | 56 | -1 | 0 |
| 181 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 51 | 0 | 0 |
| 182 | British Virgin Islands | 50 | 0 | 0 |
| 183 | Brunei Darussalam | 45 | 0 | 0 |
| 184 | Afghanistan | 44 | 0 | 0 |
| 185 | Faroe Islands | 42 | 0 | 0 |
| 186 | Djibouti | 41 | 0 | 0 |
| 187 | Dominican Republic | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| 188 | Guinea-Bissau | 38 | 0 | 0 |
| 189 | Bhutan | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| 190 | Tahiti | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 190 | Tonga | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 192 | Aruba | 22 | 1 | 0 |
| 193 | Mongolia | 19 | -1 | -5 |
| 194 | US Virgin Islands | 17 | 0 | 0 |
| 195 | Andorra | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| 196 | Dominica | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 197 | Macau | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 198 | Timor-Leste | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 199 | Comoros | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 200 | Central African Republic | 4 | 0 | -2 |
| 201 | American Samoa | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | Anguilla | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | Cook Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | Guam | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | Montserrat | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | Papua New Guinea | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
FIFA Ranking: March 2009 probable results
Here are the probable results used for the March 2009 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.
1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins
11/Feb Cyprus - Slovakia X (Slovakia PSO) (Friendly)
11/Feb Serbia - Ukraine X (Ukraine PSO) (Friendly)
11/Feb Germany - Norway 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb France - Argentina X (Friendly)
11/Feb South Africa - Chile X (Friendly)
11/Feb Tunisia - Netherlands 2 (Friendly)
11/Feb Turkey - Côte dIvoire 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Israel - Hungary 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Portugal - Finland 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Greece - Denmark X (Friendly)
11/Feb Algeria - Benin X (Friendly)
11/Feb Belgium - Slovenia X (Friendly)
11/Feb Wales - Poland X (Friendly)
11/Feb Iceland - Liechtenstein 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Latvia - Armenia X (Friendly)
11/Feb FYR Macedonia - Moldova X (Friendly)
11/Feb Cameroon - Guinea X (Friendly)
11/Feb Peru - Paraguay X (Friendly)
11/Feb Libya - Uruguay 2 (Friendly)
11/Feb Venezuela - Guatemala 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Egypt - Ghana 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Burkina Faso - Togo X (Friendly)
11/Feb Colombia - Haiti 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Iran - Korea Republic X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Mozambique - Malawi X (Friendly)
11/Feb Uzbekistan - Bahrain X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Lithuania - Andorra 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Kuwait - Azerbaijan 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb El Salvador - Trinidad and Tobago X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Morocco - Czech Republic X (Friendly)
11/Feb Estonia - Kazakhstan X (Friendly)
11/Feb USA - Mexico X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Japan - Australia X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Malta - Albania 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Republic of Ireland - Georgia 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Nigeria - Jamaica X (Friendly)
11/Feb Romania - Croatia X (Friendly)
11/Feb San Marino - Northern Ireland 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Austria - Sweden X (Friendly)
11/Feb Switzerland - Bulgaria X (Friendly)
11/Feb Costa Rica - Honduras X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Spain - England 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Tanzania - Zimbabwe X (Friendly)
11/Feb Angola - Mali X (Friendly)
05/Mar Australia - Kuwait 1 (Continental Qualifier)
1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins
11/Feb Cyprus - Slovakia X (Slovakia PSO) (Friendly)
11/Feb Serbia - Ukraine X (Ukraine PSO) (Friendly)
11/Feb Germany - Norway 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb France - Argentina X (Friendly)
11/Feb South Africa - Chile X (Friendly)
11/Feb Tunisia - Netherlands 2 (Friendly)
11/Feb Turkey - Côte dIvoire 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Israel - Hungary 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Portugal - Finland 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Greece - Denmark X (Friendly)
11/Feb Algeria - Benin X (Friendly)
11/Feb Belgium - Slovenia X (Friendly)
11/Feb Wales - Poland X (Friendly)
11/Feb Iceland - Liechtenstein 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Latvia - Armenia X (Friendly)
11/Feb FYR Macedonia - Moldova X (Friendly)
11/Feb Cameroon - Guinea X (Friendly)
11/Feb Peru - Paraguay X (Friendly)
11/Feb Libya - Uruguay 2 (Friendly)
11/Feb Venezuela - Guatemala 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Egypt - Ghana 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Burkina Faso - Togo X (Friendly)
11/Feb Colombia - Haiti 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Iran - Korea Republic X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Mozambique - Malawi X (Friendly)
11/Feb Uzbekistan - Bahrain X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Lithuania - Andorra 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Kuwait - Azerbaijan 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb El Salvador - Trinidad and Tobago X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Morocco - Czech Republic X (Friendly)
11/Feb Estonia - Kazakhstan X (Friendly)
11/Feb USA - Mexico X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Japan - Australia X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Malta - Albania 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Republic of Ireland - Georgia 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Nigeria - Jamaica X (Friendly)
11/Feb Romania - Croatia X (Friendly)
11/Feb San Marino - Northern Ireland 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Austria - Sweden X (Friendly)
11/Feb Switzerland - Bulgaria X (Friendly)
11/Feb Costa Rica - Honduras X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Feb Spain - England 1 (Friendly)
11/Feb Tanzania - Zimbabwe X (Friendly)
11/Feb Angola - Mali X (Friendly)
05/Mar Australia - Kuwait 1 (Continental Qualifier)
FIFA Ranking: March 2009 probable ranking (I)
Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
Probable March 2009 rank - Team - Probable March 2009 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
Probable March 2009 rank - Team - Probable March 2009 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Spain | 1666 | 0 | -27 |
| 2 | Germany | 1393 | 0 | -10 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 1335 | 0 | -22 |
| 4 | Italy | 1284 | 0 | -34 |
| 5 | Brazil | 1260 | 0 | 12 |
| 6 | Argentina | 1187 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Croatia | 1141 | 0 | -34 |
| 8 | Russia | 1128 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | England | 1083 | -1 | -53 |
| 10 | Turkey | 1029 | 0 | -11 |
| 11 | Portugal | 1025 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | France | 1017 | -1 | -9 |
| 13 | Czech Republic | 998 | -1 | -22 |
| 14 | Ukraine | 910 | 0 | -22 |
| 15 | Paraguay | 889 | 0 | -34 |
| 16 | Israel | 887 | 2 | 10 |
| 17 | Cameroon | 867 | -1 | -33 |
| 18 | Romania | 866 | -1 | -14 |
| 19 | Greece | 863 | 0 | -1 |
| 20 | USA | 843 | 0 | -15 |
| 21 | Uruguay | 836 | 1 | -13 |
| 22 | Switzerland | 831 | -1 | -26 |
| 23 | Mexico | 808 | 1 | 17 |
| 24 | Nigeria | 783 | -1 | -44 |
| 25 | Republic of Ireland | 772 | 4 | 25 |
| 26 | Sweden | 764 | -1 | -16 |
| 27 | Australia | 756 | 0 | -4 |
| 27 | Bulgaria | 756 | -1 | -16 |
| 29 | Scotland | 755 | 3 | 16 |
| 30 | Egypt | 753 | 0 | 9 |
| 31 | Poland | 730 | -3 | -24 |
| 32 | Serbia | 723 | 1 | -14 |
| 33 | Chile | 722 | -2 | -21 |
| 34 | Japan | 709 | 3 | 12 |
| 35 | Ghana | 705 | 0 | -9 |
| 36 | Denmark | 700 | -2 | -24 |
| 37 | Ecuador | 695 | 3 | 4 |
| 38 | Honduras | 692 | 1 | -1 |
| 39 | Côte d'Ivoire | 690 | -3 | -19 |
| 40 | Costa Rica | 679 | -2 | -15 |
| 41 | Morocco | 638 | 0 | -18 |
| 42 | Iran | 618 | 2 | -5 |
| 42 | Northern Ireland | 618 | 7 | 25 |
| 44 | Korea Republic | 617 | 2 | 9 |
| 45 | Colombia | 599 | 6 | 15 |
| 46 | Guinea | 597 | -1 | -14 |
| 47 | Hungary | 595 | -4 | -34 |
| 48 | Slovakia | 588 | -6 | -47 |
| 49 | Mali | 582 | -2 | -19 |
| 50 | Panama | 578 | 0 | -8 |
| 51 | Lithuania | 573 | -3 | -22 |
| 52 | Belgium | 558 | 1 | -10 |
| 53 | Slovenia | 545 | -1 | -27 |
| 54 | Tunisia | 543 | -1 | -25 |
| 55 | Norway | 541 | 1 | -12 |
| 55 | Saudi Arabia | 541 | 0 | -14 |
| 57 | Bolivia | 537 | 0 | 0 |
| 58 | Finland | 534 | 3 | 11 |
| 59 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 529 | 0 | -6 |
| 60 | Senegal | 526 | 0 | -8 |
| 61 | FYR Macedonia | 525 | -4 | -12 |
| 62 | Congo | 507 | 7 | 21 |
| 63 | Gabon | 505 | 0 | -9 |
| 64 | Wales | 499 | 1 | -4 |
| 65 | Venezuela | 498 | 2 | 6 |
| 66 | Burkina Faso | 495 | -4 | -25 |
| 67 | Algeria | 481 | -1 | -16 |
| 68 | South Africa | 479 | 2 | -6 |
| 69 | Uganda | 478 | 2 | 0 |
| 70 | Jamaica | 476 | -6 | -32 |
| 71 | Latvia | 471 | -4 | -21 |
| 72 | Uzbekistan | 467 | 0 | -9 |
| 73 | Gambia | 465 | 0 | 0 |
| 74 | Bahrain | 459 | 0 | 3 |
| 75 | Albania | 452 | 4 | 17 |
| 76 | Peru | 448 | 0 | -4 |
| 77 | Angola | 444 | -2 | -9 |
| 78 | Trinidad and Tobago | 441 | 0 | 2 |
| 79 | Iceland | 440 | -2 | -3 |
| 80 | New Zealand | 424 | 2 | 5 |
| 81 | Oman | 419 | 6 | 19 |
| 82 | Sudan | 412 | 2 | 0 |
| 83 | Iraq | 411 | 2 | 4 |
| 83 | Libya | 411 | -3 | -21 |
| 85 | Benin | 410 | -4 | -13 |
| 86 | Austria | 406 | -3 | -10 |
| 86 | Rwanda | 406 | 0 | 0 |
| 88 | Belarus | 395 | 2 | 0 |
| 89 | Qatar | 394 | 2 | 6 |
| 90 | Togo | 384 | -2 | -13 |
| 91 | Zambia | 383 | 1 | 2 |
| 92 | Canada | 379 | -4 | -18 |
| 93 | Congo DR | 373 | 1 | 0 |
| 94 | Kenya | 367 | 2 | 0 |
| 95 | Syria | 366 | 1 | -1 |
| 96 | Cyprus | 365 | 2 | -1 |
| 97 | Mozambique | 363 | -2 | -9 |
| 98 | Moldova | 362 | 1 | 0 |
| 99 | Cuba | 360 | -6 | -20 |
| 100 | China PR | 354 | 4 | 15 |
| 101 | Ethiopia | 348 | 0 | 0 |
| 102 | Zimbabwe | 345 | -2 | -4 |
| 103 | Tanzania | 336 | 0 | -5 |
| 104 | Fiji | 333 | 1 | 0 |
| 105 | Cape Verde Islands | 332 | 1 | 0 |
| 106 | El Salvador | 328 | 1 | -1 |
| 107 | Korea DPR | 325 | 12 | 45 |
| 108 | Malawi | 324 | -6 | -18 |
| 109 | Equatorial Guinea | 317 | 15 | 61 |
| 110 | Sierra Leone | 315 | -1 | 0 |
| 111 | Georgia | 314 | -3 | -13 |
| 112 | Montenegro | 310 | -1 | 0 |
| 113 | Guatemala | 306 | -3 | -8 |
| 114 | Namibia | 297 | -1 | 0 |
| 115 | United Arab Emirates | 295 | -1 | -1 |
| 116 | Haiti | 293 | -4 | -9 |
| 117 | Bermuda | 292 | -1 | 0 |
| 117 | Thailand | 292 | 0 | 7 |
| 119 | Armenia | 285 | 2 | 7 |
| 120 | Botswana | 283 | -2 | 0 |
| 121 | Luxembourg | 280 | -1 | 1 |
| 122 | Grenada | 279 | -8 | -17 |
| 123 | Antigua and Barbuda | 272 | -1 | 7 |
| 124 | Estonia | 264 | -2 | -1 |
| 125 | Chad | 263 | 1 | 17 |
| 126 | Jordan | 257 | 0 | 11 |
| 127 | Guyana | 255 | 6 | 37 |
| 128 | Barbados | 244 | 0 | 2 |
| 129 | Kuwait | 243 | -4 | -4 |
| 130 | Suriname | 231 | -1 | 0 |
| 131 | New Caledonia | 229 | -1 | 0 |
| 131 | Singapore | 229 | 0 | 3 |
| 133 | Kazakhstan | 224 | 7 | 18 |
| 134 | Burundi | 217 | 0 | 0 |
| 135 | Vietnam | 216 | 0 | 0 |
| 136 | Azerbaijan | 212 | 0 | -1 |
| 137 | Indonesia | 210 | 0 | 0 |
| 138 | Madagascar | 209 | 1 | 2 |
| 139 | Swaziland | 208 | -1 | -1 |
| 140 | Nicaragua | 195 | -8 | -26 |
| 141 | Hong Kong | 181 | 2 | 7 |
| 142 | Liberia | 179 | -1 | 0 |
| 143 | Vanuatu | 176 | -1 | 0 |
| 143 | Yemen | 176 | 3 | 13 |
| 145 | Puerto Rico | 170 | -1 | 0 |
| 146 | Niger | 168 | -1 | 0 |
| 147 | Tajikistan | 166 | 0 | 4 |
| 148 | India | 156 | 0 | -5 |
| 149 | Mauritania | 149 | 1 | 0 |
| 150 | Lebanon | 145 | -1 | -5 |
| 151 | Liechtenstein | 144 | 0 | -3 |
| 152 | Netherlands Antilles | 142 | 0 | 0 |
| 153 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 139 | 0 | 0 |
| 154 | Malta | 136 | 0 | 2 |
| 155 | Kyrgyzstan | 134 | 4 | 22 |
| 156 | Turkmenistan | 131 | -1 | 0 |
| 157 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 130 | -1 | 0 |
| 158 | Maldives | 126 | -1 | 0 |
| 159 | Myanmar | 121 | -1 | 0 |
| 160 | Eritrea | 108 | 0 | 0 |
| 161 | Malaysia | 107 | 0 | 3 |
| 162 | Lesotho | 105 | 0 | 2 |
| 163 | Solomon Islands | 100 | 0 | 0 |
| 164 | Philippines | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| 164 | Sri Lanka | 98 | 0 | 0 |
| 166 | Pakistan | 87 | 0 | -2 |
| 167 | Chinese Taipei | 81 | 0 | -4 |
| 168 | Cayman Islands | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 169 | Bahamas | 74 | 0 | 0 |
| 170 | Laos | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 171 | Seychelles | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 172 | Nepal | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| 173 | Mauritius | 69 | -4 | -5 |
| 174 | Bangladesh | 65 | 0 | -3 |
| 174 | Palestine | 65 | 6 | 10 |
| 176 | Samoa | 64 | -1 | 0 |
| 176 | St. Lucia | 64 | -1 | 0 |
| 178 | Belize | 62 | -1 | 0 |
| 179 | Somalia | 57 | -1 | 0 |
| 180 | Cambodia | 56 | -1 | 0 |
| 181 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 51 | 0 | 0 |
| 182 | British Virgin Islands | 50 | 0 | 0 |
| 183 | Brunei Darussalam | 45 | 0 | 0 |
| 184 | Afghanistan | 44 | 0 | 0 |
| 185 | Faroe Islands | 42 | 0 | 0 |
| 186 | Djibouti | 41 | 0 | 0 |
| 187 | Dominican Republic | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| 188 | Guinea-Bissau | 38 | 0 | 0 |
| 189 | Bhutan | 33 | 0 | 0 |
| 190 | Tahiti | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 190 | Tonga | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 192 | Aruba | 22 | 1 | 0 |
| 193 | Mongolia | 19 | -1 | -5 |
| 194 | US Virgin Islands | 17 | 0 | 0 |
| 195 | Andorra | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| 196 | Dominica | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 197 | Macau | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 198 | Timor-Leste | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 199 | Comoros | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 200 | Central African Republic | 4 | 0 | -2 |
| 201 | American Samoa | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | Anguilla | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | Cook Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | Guam | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | Montserrat | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | Papua New Guinea | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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