Assumptions:
- UEFA will again have 13 spots
- UEFA will again use the system with 9 groups
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- FIFA will hold the draw in November 2011
The November 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between November 2007 and November 2011. We already have the "0.2" part (matches played between November 2007 and November 2008) - that's basically 10% of the final ranking and a bit of the "0.3" part (matches played between November 2008 and November 2009). A lot can and will change before November 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving European teams: 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, 2009 FIFA Confederations Cup, 2010 FIFA World Cup, EURO 2012 qualifiers and plenty of friendlies.
UEFA will only use the national team coefficient for the European Championships draws (qualifying and final tournament).
This is the November 2011 ranking (for UEFA only) using matches played up to and including April 1st, 2009.
1 Spain 312
2 Netherlands 238
3 Germany 181
4 Croatia 166
5 Russia 165
6 England 164
7 Greece 162
8 Switzerland 158
9 Bosnia-Herzegovina 151
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10 Israel 147
11 Serbia 146
12 Italy 142
13 Bulgaria 141
14 France 137
15 Ukraine 135
16 Denmark 134
17 Turkey 129
18 Northern Ireland 126
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18 Republic of Ireland 126
20 Portugal 121
21 Hungary 120
22 Czech Republic 113
23 Slovakia 111
23 Poland 111
25 Sweden 107
26 Latvia 106
27 Lithuania 96
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28 Scotland 95
29 Austria 93
30 Slovenia 85
31 Romania 84
32 Belarus 76
33 Belgium 74
34 Montenegro 73
35 Finland 71
36 Norway 67
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37 Wales 66
38 Estonia 64
39 FYR Macedonia 55
40 Cyprus 54
40 Albania 54
42 Iceland 52
43 Luxembourg 46
44 Armenia 35
45 Kazakhstan 34
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46 Georgia 33
47 Azerbaijan 24
48 Faroe Islands 23
48 Moldova 23
50 Malta 22
51 Liechtenstein 5
52 Andorra 0
52 San Marino 0
It seems unnatural to me, that Bosnia is in pot 1? They didn`t make it to neither Euro 04, 08 nor World Cup 06. For 2010, they are in a good position, but the 4-0-2 record is easily beaten by other nations.
ReplyDeleteNov 2007 - Nov 2008 is already set in stone.
ReplyDeleteFor the Nov 2008 - Nov 2009 time frame I divide the number of points by the number of matches played + scheduled.
Bosnia-Herzegovina has only 6 matches in total - all WC qualifiers (2 played + 4 scheduled). Most countries have played friendlies on Feb 11 and have one or more friendlies scheduled before November 18th. That's why Bosnia's average is so high - low number of matches.