Assumptions:
- UEFA will again have 13 spots
- UEFA will again use the system with 9 groups
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- FIFA will hold the draw in November 2011
The November 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between November 2007 and November 2011. We already have the "0.2" part (matches played between November 2007 and November 2008) - that's basically 10% of the final ranking and a bit of the "0.3" part (matches played between November 2008 and November 2009). A lot can and will change before November 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving European teams: 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, 2009 FIFA Confederations Cup, 2010 FIFA World Cup, EURO 2012 qualifiers and plenty of friendlies.
UEFA will only use the national team coefficient for the European Championships draws (qualifying and final tournament).
This is the November 2011 ranking (for UEFA only) using matches played up to and including April 27th, 2009 and matches scheduled up to November 2009.
Bosnia-Herzegovina drop to the 2nd pot after scheduling a friendly in June 2009 (against Oman), with Israel taking their place in the first pot.
1 Spain 289
2 Netherlands 228
3 Germany 181
4 Croatia 166
5 Russia 165
6 England 164
7 Switzerland 158
8 Greece 152
9 Israel 147
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10 Serbia 146
11 Italy 142
12 Bosnia-Herzegovina 137
12 France 137
12 Bulgaria 137
15 Ukraine 135
16 Denmark 134
17 Turkey 129
18 Northern Ireland 126
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18 Republic of Ireland 126
20 Portugal 121
21 Hungary 120
22 Czech Republic 113
23 Slovakia 111
24 Sweden 107
25 Poland 103
26 Latvia 100
27 Lithuania 95
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28 Austria 93
29 Scotland 89
30 Slovenia 85
31 Romania 84
32 Belarus 76
33 Belgium 74
34 Montenegro 73
35 Finland 71
36 Norway 67
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37 Wales 64
38 Estonia 58
39 Cyprus 54
39 FYR Macedonia 54
41 Albania 53
42 Iceland 52
43 Luxembourg 45
44 Armenia 35
45 Kazakhstan 34
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46 Georgia 32
47 Azerbaijan 24
48 Faroe Islands 23
48 Moldova 23
50 Malta 22
51 Liechtenstein 5
52 Andorra 0
52 San Marino 0
Hey Edgar, you're doing great work here!
ReplyDeleteI just wanted to ask for clarification .. you said Bosnia dropped to the second group because they scheduled a friendly against Oman? Why is this?
Not that I think there's any chance of Bosnia being the first seed or second seed in 2011, but still, it's nice to see :)
Hi haris!
ReplyDeleteSorry for the late reply, I've been on vacation for the last two weeks.
See the explanation here.
Basically, the same amount of points are divided by a higher number of matches.