2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for CAF (29 July 2009)

The preliminary draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup took place on November 25th, 2007 and used the July 2007 FIFA ranking.

Assumptions:

- CAF will again have 5 spots
- CAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CAF will choose the July 2011 ranking for seeding

The July 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between July 2007 and July 2011. We already have the "0.2" part (matches played between July 2007 and July 2008) and the "0.3" part (matches played between July 2008 and July 2009) - that's 25% of the formula. A lot can and will change before July 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving African teams: 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, 2010 FIFA World Cup, CAN 2012 qualifiers and plenty of friendlies.

This is the July 2011 ranking (for CAF only) using matches played up to and including July 29th, 2009 and matches scheduled up to July 2010 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.5" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

First round seeding:

43 Mauritania                23
45 Lesotho                   22
46 Eritrea                   16
47 Mauritius                 15
48 Guinea-Bissau             12
-------------------------------
48 Djibouti                  12
50 Seychelles                11
51 Comoros                    0
51 Central African Republic   0
51 Sao Tome e Principe        0

Winners advance to the first group stage.

Seeding for the first group stage:

 1 Gabon                    233
 2 Côte d'Ivoire            221
 3 Ghana                    203
 3 Egypt                    203
 5 Cameroon                 186
 6 Algeria                  180
 6 Nigeria                  180
 8 Burkina Faso             164
 9 Tunisia                  150
10 Mali                     136
11 Morocco                  133
12 Guinea                   130
-------------------------------
13 Togo                     127
14 Libya                    121
15 Uganda                   116
15 South Africa             116
17 Kenya                    106
18 Congo                    105
19 Zambia                   103
20 Gambia                   101
21 Sudan                    100
22 Mozambique                94
23 Benin                     93
24 Malawi                    87
-------------------------------
25 Rwanda                    86
26 Senegal                   85
27 Tanzania                  81
28 Congo DR                  78
29 Zimbabwe                  77
30 Namibia                   76
31 Sierra Leone              74
31 Angola                    74
33 Madagascar                73
34 Cape Verde Islands        71
35 Chad                      67
36 Burundi                   52
-------------------------------
37 Equatorial Guinea         51
38 Botswana                  49
39 Niger                     47
40 Swaziland                 43
41 Liberia                   39
42 Ethiopia                  29
43 Somalia                   23
43 Mauritania                23
45 Lesotho                   22
46 Eritrea                   16
47 Mauritius                 15
48 Guinea-Bissau             12

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

1000 km in plus pentru Otopeni

FRF a mutat Otopeniul în Vest (EVZ)

O mutare greu de inteles daca luam in calcul distantele dintre cele 17 echipe din Vest si cele 19 din Est.

Iata un top 10 al distantelor in linie dreapta:

Tricolorul Breaza	4018.04
Petrolul Ploiesti	4606.09
FC Snagov	4957.9
CS Otopeni	5005.21
Concordia Chiajna	5040.48
Sportul Studentesc Bucuresti	5091.39
Steaua II Bucuresti	5117.48
Dinamo II Bucuresti	5135.05
FCM Bacau	5308.15
Gloria Buzau	5354.97

Tricolorul Breaza este echipa care ar fi trebuit mutata in Vest. CS Otopeni va avea de parcurs in plus 1000 km.

FRF ar fi luat aceasta decizie pentru echilibrarea valorica a seriilor.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for AFC

Check the updated performance based seeding.

2014 FIFA World Cup performance based seeding for AFC

_________________

AFC have announced last week the format for the 2014 World Cup qualifying campaign. They will keep the same format and seeding system.

2014 FIFA World Cup qualifying format approved

Because AFC will use 2010 World Cup qualifying performance, this is the final seeding table. Even if a team wins all its matches before the November 2011 draw, it won't matter.

These are the seedings based on 2010 World Cup qualifying performance:

 1 Australia
 2 Korea Republic
 3 Japan
 4 Korea DPR
 5 Bahrain
 5 Saudi Arabia
 7 Iran
 8 Qatar
 9 Uzbekistan
10 United Arab Emirates
11 Syria
12 Oman
13 Jordan
14 Iraq
15 China PR
16 Singapore
17 Kuwait
18 Thailand
19 Turkmenistan
20 Lebanon
21 Yemen
22 Tajikistan
23 Hong Kong
24 Indonesia
25 Kyrgyzstan
26 Maldives
27 India
28 Malaysia
29 Bangladesh
30 Pakistan
31 Afghanistan
31 Cambodia
33 Nepal
34 Sri Lanka
34 Vietnam
36 Mongolia
37 Palestine
38 Timor-Leste
39 Macau
40 Chinese Taipei
40 Myanmar
42 Bhutan
42 Brunei Darussalam
42 Guam
42 Laos
42 Philippines

The AFC article assumes only 43 members will enter the 2014 World Cup qualifying. However, let's look at the scenario with all 46 members involved.

Bye to group stage (1st to 6th):

Australia
Korea Republic
Japan
Korea DPR
Bahrain
Saudi Arabia

Pot A (7th to 26th):

Iran
Qatar
Uzbekistan
United Arab Emirates
Syria
Oman
Jordan
Iraq
China PR
Singapore
Kuwait
Thailand
Turkmenistan
Lebanon
Yemen
Tajikistan
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Kyrgyzstan
Maldives

Pot B (27th to 46th):

India
Malaysia
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Afghanistan
Cambodia
Nepal
Sri Lanka
Vietnam
Mongolia
Palestine
Timor-Leste
Macau
Chinese Taipei
Myanmar
Bhutan
Brunei Darussalam
Guam
Laos
Philippines

Assuming teams from Pot A advance, these are the second round seedings:

Pot A:

China PR
Singapore
Kuwait
Thailand
Turkmenistan
Lebanon

Pot B:

Yemen
Tajikistan
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Kyrgyzstan
Maldives

AFC were the only confederation that managed to get by article 17, paragraph 1 of the 2010 FIFA World Cup regulations:

"Any seeding based on team performance for each continental preliminary competition will be based on the FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking."

Will they be able to do it again?

These are the seedings using the August 2009 FIFA ranking:

 1 Australia
 2 Japan
 3 Korea Republic
 4 Iran
 5 Saudi Arabia
 6 Bahrain
 7 Uzbekistan
 8 Oman
 9 Qatar
10 Korea DPR
11 Syria
12 Iraq
13 China PR
14 Kuwait
15 Thailand
16 Jordan
17 United Arab Emirates
18 Singapore
19 Hong Kong
20 Indonesia
21 Yemen
22 Vietnam
23 Turkmenistan
24 Myanmar
25 Lebanon
26 Malaysia
27 Maldives
28 Tajikistan
29 India
29 Sri Lanka
31 Philippines
32 Kyrgyzstan
33 Pakistan
34 Bangladesh
35 Laos
36 Chinese Taipei
37 Cambodia
38 Mongolia
39 Nepal
40 Palestine
41 Brunei Darussalam
42 Guam
43 Afghanistan
44 Macau
45 Bhutan
46 Timor-Leste

Bye to group stage (1st to 6th):

Australia
Japan
Korea Republic
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Bahrain

Pot A (7th to 26th):

Uzbekistan
Oman
Qatar
Korea DPR
Syria
Iraq
China PR
Kuwait
Thailand
Jordan
United Arab Emirates
Singapore
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Yemen
Vietnam
Turkmenistan
Myanmar
Lebanon
Malaysia

Pot B (27th to 46th):

Maldives
Tajikistan
India
Sri Lanka
Philippines
Kyrgyzstan
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Laos
Chinese Taipei
Cambodia
Mongolia
Nepal
Palestine
Brunei Darussalam
Guam
Afghanistan
Macau
Bhutan
Timor-Leste

Assuming teams from Pot A advance, these are the second round seedings:

Pot A:

Thailand
Jordan
United Arab Emirates
Singapore
Hong Kong
Indonesia

Pot B:

Yemen
Vietnam
Turkmenistan
Myanmar
Lebanon
Malaysia


Which countries would gain from a 2010 FIFA World Cup performance based seeding?

Korea DPR would be among the top seeds, receiving a bye to the first group stage.
United Arab Emirates and Jordan would avoid playing in the last knock-out round before the first group stage.
Turkmenistan and Lebanon would be seeded in the last knock-out round before the first group stage.
Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Maldives would be in the first pot for the first knock-out round.

Which countries would gain from a FIFA Ranking based seeding?

Iran would be among the top seeds, receiving a bye to the first group stage.
China PR and Kuwait would avoid playing in the last knock-out round before the first group stage.
Hong Kong and Indonesia would be seeded in the last knock-out round before the first group stage.
Malaysia, Vietnam and Myanmar would be in the first pot for the first knock-out round.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for CONCACAF teams (July 27th)

The preliminary draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup took place on November 25th, 2007 and used the May 2007 FIFA ranking (for CONCACAF).

Assumptions:

- CONCACAF will again have 3.5 spots
- CONCACAF will again use the same qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams

The May 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between May 2007 and May 2011. We already have the "0.2" and "0.3" parts (matches played between May 2007 and May 2009) - that's basically 25% of the final ranking and a bit of the "0.5" part (matches played between May 2009 and May 2010). A lot can and will change before May 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving CONCACAF teams: 2009 Gold Cup knockout stages, 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, 2010 FIFA World Cup, 2010 Caribbean Championship, 2011 UNCAF Nations Cup and plenty of friendlies.

This is the May 2011 ranking (for CONCACAF only) using matches played up to and including June 13th, 2009 and matches scheduled up to May 2009 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.5" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

 1 USA                            474
 2 Mexico                         384
 3 Canada                         354
-------------------------------------
 4 Costa Rica                     345
 5 Honduras                       321
 6 El Salvador                    215
-------------------------------------
 7 Panama                         208
 8 Jamaica                        200
 9 Haiti                          174
10 Trinidad and Tobago            116
11 Grenada                        115
12 Antigua and Barbuda            112
-------------------------------------
13 Guatemala                       90
-------------------------------------
14 Cuba                            87
15 Bermuda                         80
16 Barbados                        70
17 Suriname                        63
18 Guyana                          53
18 Nicaragua                       53
20 Netherlands Antilles            50
21 Puerto Rico                     48
22 St. Kitts and Nevis             38
23 Cayman Islands                  24
24 Belize                          22
-------------------------------------
24 St. Vincent and the Grenadines  22
26 St. Lucia                       13
26 Turks and Caicos Islands        13
28 British Virgin Islands          12
29 Bahamas                          8
30 Aruba                            7
31 Dominica                         5
32 US Virgin Islands                3
33 Montserrat                       0
33 Dominican Republic               0
33 Anguilla                         0

Now, looking at the August 2011 FIFA ranking (as Matt suggested):

 1 USA                            231
 2 Costa Rica                     183
 3 Honduras                       177
-------------------------------------
 4 Mexico                         161
 5 Jamaica                        131
 6 Trinidad and Tobago            113
-------------------------------------
 7 Canada                         111
 7 El Salvador                    111
 9 Panama                         110
10 Cuba                           105
11 Grenada                         96
12 Suriname                        89
-------------------------------------
13 Antigua and Barbuda             88
-------------------------------------
14 Barbados                        81
15 Haiti                           71
16 Guatemala                       67
17 Nicaragua                       44
18 Guyana                          42
19 Bermuda                         40
20 St. Kitts and Nevis             36
21 Puerto Rico                     35
22 Netherlands Antilles            32
23 Cayman Islands                  24
24 St. Vincent and the Grenadines  21
-------------------------------------
24 Belize                          21
26 St. Lucia                       13
26 Turks and Caicos Islands        13
28 British Virgin Islands          12
29 Bahamas                          8
30 Dominica                         5
31 Aruba                            4
32 US Virgin Islands                3
33 Anguilla                         0
33 Dominican Republic               0
33 Montserrat                       0

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: August 2009 final preview

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Only two matches left before the deadline:

USA - Mexico (Gold Cup final)
China PR - Kyrgyzstan (friendly).

This is how these teams' totals could change:

USA (991 - loss, 1009 - PSO loss, 1028 - PSO win, 1046 - win)
Mexico (743 - loss, 755 - PSO loss, 777 - PSO win, 799 - win)
China PR (302 - loss, 306 - draw, 314 - win)
Kyrgystan (102 - loss, 118 - draw, 149 - win)

In the ranking table, the value displayed for these teams is the minimum possible value. This means that even if they lose, their total can't drop.

USA can break into the top 10 with a win against Mexico.
Mexico can return to the top 30 with a win against USA.
China PR can climb to 108th with a win against Kyrgyzstan.
Kyrgyzstan can climb to 144th with a win against China PR.

Germany up to 4th, Italy down to 5th.

Best movers:

26 - Canada
12 - Namibia
11 - New Caledonia

Worst movers:

-25 - Netherlands Antilles
-24 - Grenada
-13 - Vietnam

Best movers in the top 50:

6 - Egypt
2 - Paraguay

Worst movers in the top 50:

-7 - Costa Rica and Honduras
-5 - Mexico

Costa Rica will drop one more place unless USA defeat Mexico avoiding PSO.

Ghana out of the African top 5, replaced by Egypt - now 4th.

Canada break in the CONCACAF top 5, replacing Jamaica. Costa Rica will keep their 2nd place only if USA defeats Mexico avoiding PSO.

Paraguay up to 3rd in South America, replacing Uruguay.

New Caledonia replace Vanuatu as the 3rd Oceanian team.

Germany replace Italy as UEFA's 3rd.

Montenegro will again improve their best ever ranking - 96th. Their previous best was 98th, achieved last month.

Peru return to their worst ever ranking 89th - first achieved in June 2009.

Five teams will have their worst ever ranking:

Mexico (38th - 33rd in July 2009)
China PR (113th - 108th in July 2009)
Zimbabwe (120th - 116th in July 2009)
United Arab Emirates (124th - 122nd in April 2009)
Mauritius (183rd - 176th in July 2009)

Mexico and China PR can still avoid this.

August 2009 rank - Team - August 2009 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Brazil	1642	0	-30
2	Spain	1590	0	0
3	Netherlands	1379	0	0
4	Germany	1195	1	-12
5	Italy	1181	-1	-48
6	Russia	1161	0	0
7	England	1135	0	0
8	Argentina	1080	0	-11
9	France	1059	0	-23
10	Croatia	1031	0	0
11	Greece	1001	0	0
12	USA	991	0	8
13	Switzerland	930	0	0
14	Serbia	925	0	0
15	Denmark	909	0	0
16	Australia	896	0	10
17	Portugal	881	0	2
18	Côte d'Ivoire	874	0	0
19	Ukraine	869	0	0
20	Paraguay	856	2	10
21	Uruguay	851	-1	-9
22	Czech Republic	850	-1	0
23	Bulgaria	839	0	0
24	Scotland	837	0	0
25	Israel	822	0	0
26	Chile	817	1	6
27	Romania	814	-1	0
28	Turkey	809	0	0
29	Cameroon	803	0	0
30	Gabon	789	0	0
31	Northern Ireland	784	1	0
32	Egypt	778	6	24
33	Nigeria	773	1	0
34	Ghana	772	1	0
35	Ecuador	768	1	8
36	Republic of Ireland	758	1	0
37	Costa Rica	742	-7	-47
38	Mexico	734	-5	-43
39	Japan	729	1	7
40	Poland	706	1	0
41	Sweden	702	1	0
42	Slovakia	687	1	0
43	Hungary	681	1	0
44	Bosnia-Herzegovina	680	1	0
45	Colombia	668	1	-7
46	Honduras	664	-7	-89
47	Algeria	661	0	0
48	Korea Republic	626	0	-8
49	Tunisia	614	0	0
50	Norway	606	0	0
51	Burkina Faso	598	0	0
52	Finland	593	0	0
53	FYR Macedonia	589	0	0
54	Venezuela	583	0	-1
55	Morocco	570	0	0
56	Latvia	563	0	0
57	Guinea	562	0	0
58	Mali	551	1	0
59	Lithuania	545	1	0
60	Slovenia	539	2	0
61	Iran	534	-3	-25
62	Belgium	533	1	0
63	Bolivia	522	1	1
64	Saudi Arabia	519	-3	-23
65	Bahrain	501	1	6
66	Canada	497	26	137
67	Wales	494	0	0
68	Austria	493	0	0
69	Jamaica	488	-4	-31
70	Trinidad and Tobago	478	2	17
71	Togo	468	0	0
72	South Africa	449	-2	-25
73	Cyprus	445	0	0
74	Belarus	444	0	0
75	Libya	441	0	3
75	Uganda	441	0	3
77	Zambia	425	0	5
78	Panama	417	-9	-61
79	Uzbekistan	412	0	10
80	Oman	411	-2	-2
81	El Salvador	408	9	32
82	Mozambique	401	0	7
83	Benin	400	-3	0
84	Senegal	399	-3	0
85	Qatar	397	1	17
86	Korea DPR	395	-3	2
87	Moldova	389	-3	0
88	Cuba	383	-3	0
89	Congo	378	0	0
89	Peru	378	-3	-2
91	Sudan	367	0	0
92	Iceland	358	1	0
93	Tanzania	350	4	5
94	Albania	347	1	0
95	Syria	342	1	-4
96	Montenegro	339	2	0
97	Congo DR	338	5	6
98	Gambia	337	1	0
99	New Zealand	336	1	0
100	Iraq	334	-6	-21
101	Fiji	333	0	0
102	Angola	331	1	2
103	Georgia	326	1	0
103	Namibia	326	12	32
105	Kenya	325	0	0
106	Barbados	320	1	0
107	Guatemala	316	2	3
108	Antigua and Barbuda	312	-3	-13
108	Malawi	312	2	0
110	Suriname	309	1	0
111	Estonia	308	1	0
112	Grenada	305	-24	-74
113	China PR	300	-5	-17
114	Cape Verde Islands	296	0	0
115	Haiti	295	5	47
116	Kuwait	293	2	5
117	Rwanda	288	-4	-10
118	Thailand	287	-1	-3
119	Luxembourg	284	0	0
120	Zimbabwe	280	-4	-12
121	Guyana	269	-1	21
122	Jordan	245	0	2
123	Armenia	243	-1	0
124	United Arab Emirates	242	-2	-1
125	Sierra Leone	241	0	0
126	Chad	233	0	0
127	Singapore	228	0	0
128	Burundi	220	1	0
129	Equatorial Guinea	219	1	0
130	Botswana	208	4	6
130	Kazakhstan	208	3	4
132	Madagascar	203	-4	-24
133	Niger	187	3	0
134	Hong Kong	186	3	0
135	Indonesia	185	-3	-21
136	Ethiopia	178	2	1
137	Azerbaijan	175	2	0
138	New Caledonia	168	11	26
139	Nicaragua	165	-4	-30
140	Liberia	161	2	0
141	Yemen	159	3	2
142	Vanuatu	152	-1	-11
143	Bermuda	150	3	0
144	Vietnam	149	-13	-66
145	Turkmenistan	143	6	5
146	Malta	140	4	0
147	Myanmar	139	8	10
148	Lebanon	138	3	0
149	St. Kitts and Nevis	135	-4	-16
150	Liechtenstein	133	3	0
150	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	133	3	0
152	Swaziland	120	-10	-41
153	Malaysia	119	4	8
154	Maldives	117	2	0
155	Tajikistan	116	-7	-31
156	India	112	-9	-36
156	Sri Lanka	112	6	11
158	Philippines	108	0	0
159	Eritrea	106	0	0
160	Kyrgyzstan	102	0	-3
161	Mauritania	99	3	0
161	Solomon Islands	99	2	-1
163	Faroe Islands	96	2	0
164	Lesotho	93	-3	-9
165	Netherlands Antilles	88	-25	-81
166	Puerto Rico	87	0	0
167	Pakistan	85	0	0
168	Somalia	82	0	0
169	Bangladesh	80	0	0
170	Cayman Islands	76	1	0
171	Laos	73	1	0
172	Chinese Taipei	70	2	0
173	Cambodia	64	3	0
173	Samoa	64	3	0
175	Mongolia	61	4	0
176	Nepal	60	-3	-12
177	Belize	57	3	0
177	Palestine	57	-2	-12
179	Bahamas	53	2	0
179	Seychelles	53	-9	-25
181	Turks and Caicos Islands	51	1	0
182	Brunei Darussalam	46	1	0
183	Mauritius	45	-7	-19
184	Dominican Republic	40	0	0
184	Tonga	40	0	0
186	Guinea-Bissau	38	0	0
187	Cook Islands	34	1	0
187	Guam	34	1	0
189	Djibouti	33	1	0
190	St. Lucia	32	1	0
190	Tahiti	32	1	0
192	Afghanistan	31	-5	-6
193	British Virgin Islands	30	0	0
194	Macau	28	0	0
195	Andorra	17	1	0
195	Bhutan	17	1	0
197	Dominica	12	1	0
198	Aruba	11	-3	-11
199	Timor-Leste	9	0	0
200	Comoros	8	0	0
200	US Virgin Islands	8	0	0
202	Central African Republic	4	0	0
203	American Samoa	0	0	0
203	Anguilla	0	0	0
203	Montserrat	0	0	0
203	Papua New Guinea	0	0	0
203	San Marino	0	0	0

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Teams in need of matches for the August 2009 ranking

There are 55 teams that will not have the required 5 matches in the last 12 months when the August 2009 FIFA Ranking will be released. For these teams, FIFA will basically add a number of "virtual defeats" equal to the difference between the number of matches actually played by that team in the last 12 months and the required 5 matches.

Only two of them will be in the top 100: Congo and Gambia.

29 countries managed to get positive results in the last 12 months, but they lose points because of the 5 matches requirement.

Country - Points lost - Probable August 2009 rank

St. Vincent and the Grenadines 255 151
Gambia                         204  97
Fiji                           162 101
Madagascar                     162 132
Vanuatu                        109 142
Sierra Leone                    96 125
Niger                           96 133
Liberia                         92 140
Congo                           52  89
Cook Islands                    51 187
Guam                            51 187
Tajikistan                      36 155
India                           34 156
Bermuda                         32 143
Chad                            30 126
Cape Verde Islands              27 115
Chinese Taipei                  22 172
Somalia                         19 168
New Caledonia                   17 138
Sri Lanka                       17 156
Maldives                        15 154
Hong Kong                       14 134
Belize                          14 178
Mongolia                        13 175
Tonga                           13 184
Afghanistan                     13 192
Kyrgyzstan                      11 160
Nepal                            6 176
Timor-Leste                      2 199

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for CONCACAF teams (July 17th)

This morning I saw this post on Think it all in: Looking Ahead to World Cup Qualifying 2011.

Pompey Canuck tries, with some success, to do something similar with my 2014 World Cup seeding, but for CONCACAF.

There are a couple of mistakes in the article:

* Pompey Canuck got some parts of the FIFA ranking method right, but he forgot to divide the points won in each time frame by the number of matches
* The 13th team in the ranking gets a bye to the 2nd round, it's not random
* It's a very bad idea to play lots and lots of friendlies, especially against St. Vincent, St. Lucia, Turks & Caicos, Bahamas, Aruba as it will bring your average down

Anyway, here's the May 2011 FIFA Ranking with the usual explanations:

The preliminary draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup took place on November 25th, 2007 and used the May 2007 FIFA ranking (for CONCACAF).

Assumptions:

- CONCACAF will again have 3.5 spots
- CONCACAF will again use the same qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams

The May 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between May 2007 and May 2011. We already have the "0.2" and "0.3" parts (matches played between May 2007 and May 2009) - that's basically 25% of the final ranking and a bit of the "0.5" part (matches played between May 2009 and May 2010). A lot can and will change before May 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving CONCACAF teams: 2009 Gold Cup knockout stages, 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, 2010 FIFA World Cup, 2010 Caribbean Championship, 2011 UNCAF Nations Cup and plenty of friendlies.

This is the May 2011 ranking (for CONCACAF only) using matches played up to and including June 13th, 2009 and matches scheduled up to May 2009 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.5" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

 1 USA                            433
 2 Canada                         354
 3 Costa Rica                     342
-------------------------------------
 4 Honduras                       298
 5 Mexico                         293
 6 El Salvador                    215
-------------------------------------
 7 Panama                         208
 8 Jamaica                        200
 9 Haiti                          174
10 Trinidad and Tobago            116
11 Grenada                        115
12 Antigua and Barbuda            112
-------------------------------------
13 Guatemala                       90
-------------------------------------
14 Cuba                            87
15 Bermuda                         80
16 Barbados                        70
17 Suriname                        63
18 Guyana                          53
18 Nicaragua                       53
20 Netherlands Antilles            50
21 Puerto Rico                     48
22 St. Kitts and Nevis             38
23 Cayman Islands                  24
24 Belize                          22
-------------------------------------
24 St. Vincent and the Grenadines  22
26 St. Lucia                       13
26 Turks and Caicos Islands        13
28 British Virgin Islands          12
29 Bahamas                          8
30 Aruba                            7
31 Dominica                         5
32 US Virgin Islands                3
33 Montserrat                       0
33 Dominican Republic               0
33 Anguilla                         0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: November 2009 top 50

Explanation:

This is the how the November 2009 FIFA ranking would look like if

• No more matches would be played from July 13th to November 11th.
• The 5-matches rule wouldn't be applied

This post was basically published to help those interested in the 2010 FIFA World Cup seeding. As many of you know, the November 2009 is the last piece of the formula.

_________________________________________

By request.

Column order

Rank
Country
Points
Sum of 0.2, 0.3 and 0.5
Matches in the 1.0 time frame
Points in the 1.0 time frame

I didn't apply the minimum 5 matches rule for Russia, Croatia, Gabon, Scotland, Greece, Switzerland, Israel, Hungary, Cameroon and Burkina Faso because I'm sure they will have 5 matches by November 11th.

1	Brazil	1760	637.73	11	12345.88
2	Spain	1661	839.26	10	8218.58
3	Netherlands	1465	641.48	6	4938.98
4	Russia	1215	547.12	3	2002.50
5	Italy	1107	698.78	9	3671.90
6	Argentina	1100	589.19	7	3573.12
7	England	1087	534.08	6	3315.00
8	Croatia	1040	580.71	3	1376.50
9	France	1032	538.83	6	2959.23
10	USA	1015	387.73	15	9407.43
11	Germany	1010	731.01	6	1676.73
12	Greece	1002	456.47	4	2183.00
13	Côte d'Ivoire	955	389.59	5	2826.75
14	Switzerland	932	391.84	4	2160.00
15	Gabon	926	262.23	3	1991.98
16	Denmark	907	356.70	5	2753.50
17	Australia	903	377.73	8	4203.25
18	Northern Ireland	896	352.76	5	2715.00
19	Portugal	893	541.73	6	2106.70
20	Ghana	883	385.62	6	2985.20
21	Serbia	882	371.40	8	4083.00
22	Bosnia-Herzegovina	863	235.64	5	3136.85
22	Bulgaria	863	483.33	5	1899.00
24	Uruguay	841	400.67	6	2644.57
25	Chile	840	367.02	9	4254.22
26	Ukraine	818	417.39	6	2403.00
27	Ecuador	799	349.65	8	3596.37
28	Costa Rica	789	242.78	15	8191.07
29	Egypt	788	445.53	10	3423.08
30	Israel	769	498.59	4	1082.60
31	Colombia	753	318.50	6	2604.42
32	Japan	752	350.14	12	4822.76
33	Czech Republic	746	541.31	5	1024.58
34	Algeria	740	260.47	5	2397.43
34	Honduras	740	288.88	16	7222.03
36	Republic of Ireland	737	368.00	6	2212.25
37	Hungary	729	284.62	4	1779.00
38	Romania	714	443.12	5	1353.00
39	Nigeria	708	427.25	7	1965.15
40	Mexico	706	395.09	13	4047.57
41	Scotland	700	387.70	3	937.50
42	Canada	698	217.23	6	2886.68
43	Tunisia	678	282.88	6	2368.00
44	Cameroon	671	495.30	4	703.38
45	Burkina Faso	657	252.52	4	1618.83
46	Korea Republic	656	299.15	10	3565.33
47	Paraguay	632	457.40	6	1047.24
48	Poland	631	374.93	8	2047.78
49	Slovakia	626	304.76	6	1927.50
50	Venezuela	601	253.16	9	3129.92

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.