Confusion in Indian football

This is a pretty old article, but I think it's interesting, as it shows how totally clueless Indian football is.

India better than what FIFA ranking shows: Coach Houghton

Mr. Houghton says:

"FIFA rankings are based on the performances of a team over a year. We don't play enough games in a year."

Obviously, that's wrong, as the FIFA ranking takes into account matches played in the last 4 years.

And here's the real gem:

If India could do well in the 2011 Asia Cup -- India qualified by winning the AFC Challenge Cup last year -- and enter the World Cup qualifiers as a seeded team, it would immensely benefit the team, he added.

"The next year-and-a-half is going to be very important for India. If we can perform well in the Asia Cup and become a seeded team for the World Cup qualifiers, then it would mean a first round bye and facing weaker teams, while now since we are unseeded we end up playing more matches and get drawn with tougher opponents," he said.

This next year-and-a-half will be in vain, as AFC have already announced the seeding for the the 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifiers. India's 2011 Asian Cup performance won't affect the World Cup seeding, only the 2015 Asian Cup seeding.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: September 2009 final preview

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

The official deadline for matches was yesterday. FIFA could include more matches, but no later than Sunday.

Germany and Italy tied in 4th place.
Croatia and France swap places in the top 10.

Best movers:

14 - Kyrgyzstan
11 - Congo
10 - Angola

Worst movers:

-22 - Congo DR
-17 - Tajikistan
-11 - Bermuda, Cayman Islands and Samoa

Best movers in the top 50:

7 - Norway
6 - Mexico
5 - Chile

Worst movers in the top 50:

-7 - Uruguay
-6 - Ukraine and Scotland
-4 - Gabon and Hungary

Bahrain replace Saudi Arabia as 5th in AFC. These two teams will meet in September in the Asian 3rd place play-off.

Ghana overtake Nigeria and are tied with Egypt for 3rd in CAF. Gabon drop out of the top 5. It's very close though - 5 African teams between 29th and 35th.

Trinidad and Tobago in the CONCACAF top 5, overtaking Canada and Jamaica.

Chile up to 3rd in CONMEBOL, going past Paraguay and Uruguay.

Four teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Serbia (13th - 14th in July 2009)
Australia (14th - 16th in July 2009)
Benin (78th - 79th in August 2007)
Montenegro (90th - 96th in August 2009)

Four teams will have their worst ever ranking:

Morocco (57th - 55th in June 2009)
Peru (91st - 89th in June 2009)
Congo DR (118th - 102nd in July 2009)
Tonga (193rd - 192nd in July 2007)

September 2009 rank - Team - September 2009 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Brazil	1604	0	-38
2	Spain	1588	0	-2
3	Netherlands	1376	0	-3
4	Germany	1186	0	-9
4	Italy	1186	1	5
6	Russia	1129	0	-32
7	England	1127	0	-8
8	Argentina	1113	0	33
9	Croatia	1101	1	70
10	France	1040	-1	-19
11	USA	974	1	-17
12	Greece	971	-1	-30
13	Serbia	916	1	-9
14	Australia	907	2	11
15	Switzerland	899	-2	-31
16	Denmark	892	-1	-17
17	Portugal	880	0	-1
18	Czech Republic	870	4	20
19	Bulgaria	859	4	20
20	Côte d'Ivoire	852	-2	-22
21	Chile	846	5	29
21	Israel	846	4	24
23	Paraguay	842	-3	-14
24	Mexico	835	6	36
25	Ukraine	829	-6	-40
26	Romania	827	1	13
27	Turkey	826	1	17
28	Uruguay	820	-7	-31
29	Cameroon	819	0	16
30	Scotland	804	-6	-33
31	Northern Ireland	795	1	11
32	Egypt	786	1	7
32	Ghana	786	3	14
34	Nigeria	773	0	0
35	Gabon	759	-4	-30
36	Ecuador	749	0	-19
36	Poland	749	4	43
38	Republic of Ireland	743	-1	-15
39	Costa Rica	735	-1	-7
40	Japan	734	-1	5
41	Sweden	723	0	21
42	Honduras	712	4	48
43	Norway	709	7	103
44	Algeria	707	3	46
45	Slovakia	686	-3	-1
46	Bosnia-Herzegovina	682	-2	2
47	Hungary	669	-4	-12
48	Colombia	657	-3	-11
49	Korea Republic	641	-1	15
50	Venezuela	604	4	21
51	Burkina Faso	602	0	4
52	Tunisia	601	-3	-13
53	Mali	593	5	42
54	Slovenia	576	6	37
55	Guinea	574	2	12
56	FYR Macedonia	569	-3	-20
57	Morocco	561	-2	-9
58	Latvia	555	-2	-8
59	Bolivia	547	4	25
60	Iran	541	1	7
61	Finland	537	-9	-56
62	Lithuania	533	-3	-12
63	Trinidad and Tobago	517	7	39
64	Bahrain	506	1	4
65	Saudi Arabia	505	-1	-15
66	Canada	504	0	6
67	Wales	481	0	-13
68	Belgium	480	-6	-53
69	Jamaica	477	0	-12
70	Austria	473	-2	-20
71	Togo	454	0	-14
72	Uganda	448	3	7
73	South Africa	445	-1	-4
74	Oman	432	6	21
75	Panama	431	3	14
76	Cyprus	429	-3	-16
77	Belarus	420	-3	-24
78	Benin	412	5	12
78	Congo	412	11	34
80	Senegal	410	4	11
81	Zambia	409	-4	-16
82	Libya	407	-7	-34
83	Qatar	400	2	3
84	Mozambique	399	-2	-3
85	El Salvador	398	-4	-10
85	Uzbekistan	398	-6	-14
87	Cuba	393	1	10
88	Moldova	391	-1	2
89	Montenegro	380	7	41
90	Korea DPR	379	-4	-17
91	Peru	363	-2	-15
92	Angola	362	10	30
93	Albania	360	1	13
94	Tanzania	359	-1	9
95	Syria	353	0	10
96	Iceland	345	-4	-13
97	Sudan	343	-6	-24
98	Iraq	340	2	6
99	Gambia	337	-1	0
100	New Zealand	336	-1	0
101	Namibia	331	2	5
102	Fiji	330	-1	-3
103	Barbados	326	3	6
104	Kenya	317	1	-8
105	Malawi	312	3	0
106	Antigua and Barbuda	311	2	-1
107	China PR	307	1	-5
108	Grenada	305	5	0
109	Haiti	304	6	9
110	Kuwait	298	6	6
111	Guatemala	297	-4	-19
112	Cape Verde Islands	296	2	0
112	Georgia	296	-9	-30
114	Estonia	289	-2	-19
115	Thailand	286	2	-1
116	Luxembourg	282	3	-2
117	Rwanda	278	0	-9
118	Congo DR	275	-22	-64
119	Suriname	272	-8	-37
120	Zimbabwe	261	0	-20
121	Sierra Leone	241	4	0
122	Guyana	240	-1	-29
123	United Arab Emirates	238	1	-4
124	Chad	233	2	0
125	Armenia	231	-2	-12
125	Burundi	231	3	11
127	Singapore	223	0	-5
128	Hong Kong	221	6	35
129	Equatorial Guinea	219	0	0
129	Jordan	219	-7	-26
131	Madagascar	208	1	6
132	Indonesia	202	2	16
133	Botswana	201	-2	-6
134	New Caledonia	199	4	31
135	Niger	190	-2	3
136	Ethiopia	181	0	3
136	Kazakhstan	181	-6	-27
138	Vanuatu	177	4	25
139	Azerbaijan	174	-2	-1
140	Malta	166	6	26
141	Nicaragua	165	-2	0
142	Yemen	163	-1	4
143	Liberia	161	-3	0
144	Myanmar	150	3	11
145	Vietnam	149	-1	0
146	Kyrgyzstan	146	14	44
147	Turkmenistan	145	-2	3
148	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	138	2	5
149	India	134	7	22
150	Lebanon	132	-2	-6
151	Liechtenstein	124	-1	-9
152	Malaysia	123	0	3
152	St. Kitts and Nevis	123	-3	-12
154	Bermuda	119	-11	-31
155	Maldives	117	-1	0
156	Swaziland	115	-3	-4
157	Eritrea	114	2	8
158	Sri Lanka	111	-2	-1
159	Philippines	108	-1	0
160	Lesotho	101	4	6
161	Mauritania	99	0	0
162	Solomon Islands	97	-1	-2
163	Faroe Islands	96	0	0
164	Netherlands Antilles	88	1	0
165	Puerto Rico	87	1	0
166	Chinese Taipei	86	6	16
167	Bangladesh	85	2	5
167	Pakistan	85	0	0
169	Somalia	82	-1	0
170	Laos	69	1	-4
171	Cambodia	67	2	3
172	Tajikistan	65	-17	-51
173	Palestine	62	4	5
174	Mongolia	61	1	0
175	Nepal	60	1	0
176	Belize	57	1	0
177	Bahamas	53	2	0
177	Seychelles	53	2	0
179	Turks and Caicos Islands	51	2	0
180	Brunei Darussalam	46	2	0
181	Cayman Islands	44	-11	-32
182	Mauritius	43	1	-2
183	Dominican Republic	40	1	0
184	Guinea-Bissau	38	2	0
184	Samoa	38	-11	-26
186	Cook Islands	34	1	0
186	Guam	34	1	0
188	Djibouti	33	1	0
189	St. Lucia	32	1	0
189	Tahiti	32	1	0
191	Afghanistan	30	1	0
191	British Virgin Islands	30	1	0
193	Macau	28	1	0
193	Tonga	28	-9	-12
195	Andorra	18	0	1
196	Bhutan	17	-1	0
197	Dominica	12	0	0
198	Aruba	11	0	0
199	Timor-Leste	9	0	0
200	Comoros	8	0	0
200	US Virgin Islands	8	0	0
202	Central African Republic	4	0	0
203	American Samoa	0	0	0
203	Anguilla	0	0	0
203	Montserrat	0	0	0
203	Papua New Guinea	0	0	0
203	San Marino	0	0	0

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

100 days to the 2010 FIFA World Cup final draw

The final draw will take place on December 4th 2009, at the Cape Town International Convention Centre.

So far, besides South Africa (the hosts), only five teams are sure to be in the draw: Australia, Japan, Korea Republic, Netherlands and Korea DPR.

For seeding info, check the 2010 FIFA World Cup seeding links at the top of the page.

FIFA will probably release the official seeding table a couple of days before the draw.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2010 WCQ: Explanation of second place standings

It would have been a very long comment. I think a separate post would be better.

First of all, this was a "by request" post for Jonny. These are probable results based on the Elo ratings, not my predictions. I'm not good at predictions by the way :) The Elo ratings don't reflect a team's form very well. Perhaps Voros' ranking would do the trick, but since the system behind his ranking is not public, I can't use it to predict results. For each match, I use the result that will have the teams exchange the least amount of points.

Anonymous said...

I don't think Norway is going to be among the 8 best second placed teams. I'm Norwegian, and I'm saying this based on how our team plays in the last 5 years. Maybe we are going to win away against Iceland and HOME against Macedonia, but that won't be enough. You also have some "weird" results, by underestimating Serbia (don't mind anyway, they are in front us), Portugal and especially Turkey. And I don't think Croatai and Israel are going to be the second placed team in their group. But I do respect your opinion :)

I fixed the location of Norway - Macedonia. Jonny also told me about it, but I try to use my week-ends for more important things, like my family.
This has never been an "opinion" blog. It's only a ranking blog. That's why it's not very popular. :)

Petar said...

Hi!
I know you're Romanian (where from Romania actually?) and you maybe don't like Serbia or Serbs, but do you really think Serbia is going to get a draw against France (fair enough), Romania (you are good, but not that good!:)) and Lithuania (no comment!)? I believe France will get the 2nd place in Group 7. I also count on help from Romania on 5th September in Paris :)

From Iasi. I have nothing against Serbs or Serbia. Scroll to the end to see why Elo gives these results. Elo has Romania losing 1 - 0 in Paris.

paqs said...

Group 5 current situation:

Bosnia 12 points
Turkey 8 points

You say Turkey will gain an additional 8 points, leaving them with 16. You say Bosnia will draw with Turkey, and it's fair to assume they'll lose to Spain.

So that leaves Bosnia to get 4 points from two games at Estonia and Armenia to surpass Turkey and their 16 points. I think they'll easily make it, considering they beat the two minnows by 7-0 (Estonia) and 4-1 (Armenia) last fall.

Scroll to the end to see why Elo gives these results.

scaryice said...

I'm not sure 12 points would be enough, unless no one breaks out of the pack in group 3. Teams are probably going to need 13 points after the 6th place results are removed. I don't know even know if Scotland could avoid missing the playoffs with 13 points, because their goal differential is awful.

At this point all teams in group 8 need to hope for the right results in the other groups. I think you're being conservative with your likely results. Ireland should beat Cyprus and Portugal should beat Hungary, and I don't see Israel and Turkey finishing second in their groups.

I'm not being conservative. It's what Elo comes up with.

Here are a couple of results mentioned in the above comments or results I think are strange.

Of course, the values are adjusted after each match, but the current values will do for now:

Armenia - Bosnia-Herzegovina X

Armenia - 1345
Bosnia - 1604

Points exchanged:

1 - 29
X - 9
2 - 11

Cyprus - Republic of Ireland X

Cyprus - 1479
Republic of Ireland - 1737

Points exchanged:

1 - 29
X - 9
2 - 11

Armenia - Belgium X

Armenia - 1345
Belgium - 1554

Points exchanged:

1 - 26
X - 6
2 - 14

Hungary - Portugal X

Hungary - 1598
Portugal - 1795

Points exchanged:

1 - 25
X - 5
2 - 15

Latvia - Switzerland X

1 - 29
X - 9
2 - 11

Serbia - Romania X

Serbia - 1799
Romania - 1763

Points exchanged:

1 - 13
X - 7
2 - 27

Estonia - Bosnia-Herzegovina X

Estonia - 1396
Bosnia-Herzegovina - 1578

Points exchanged:

1 - 26
X - 6
2 - 14

Lithuania - Serbia X

Lithuania - 1578
Serbia - 1799

Points exchanged:

1 - 27
X - 7
2 - 13

Estonia - Belgium X

Estonia - 1396
Belgium - 1554

Points exchanged:

1 - 23
X - 3
2 - 17

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2010 WCQ: Second place standings (21 August 2009)

A discussion with jonny63 made me curious about Norway's chances of reaching the play-offs. I generated the probable results for the remaining qualifiers and here's the ranking of second placed teams (with the games against the 6th team in the group removed):

Rank - Team - Group - Goals for - Goals against - Points - Goal difference

1 Russia              4 13 3 19 10
2 Serbia              7 11 5 15  6
3 Croatia             6 12 8 14  4
4 Israel              2  9 7 13  2
5 Norway              9  8 5 12  3
6 Republic of Ireland 8  5 3 12  2
7 Poland              3  8 7 12  1
8 Portugal            1  5 4 11  1
----------------------------------
9 Turkey              5  5 5 10  0

Probable results for these 9 teams:

H (home), A (away), W (win), D (draw), L (loss).

Russia

Liechtenstein (H-W)
Wales (A-W)
Germany (H-D)
Azerbaijan (A-W)

Serbia

France (H-D)
Romania (H-D)
Lithuania (A-D)

Croatia

Belarus (H-W)
England (A-L)
Kazakhstan (A-W)

Israel

Latvia (H-W)
Luxembourg (H-W)
Moldova (H-W)
Switzerland (A-D)

Norway

Iceland (A-W)
FYR Macedonia (H-W)

Poland

Northern Ireland (H-W)
Slovenia (A-D)
Czech Republic (A-D)
Slovakia (H-W)

Republic of Ireland

Cyprus (A-D)
Italy (H-D)
Montenegro (H-W)

Portugal

Denmark (A-D)
Hungary (A-D)
Hungary (H-W)
Malta (H-W)

Turkey

Estonia (H-W)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (A-D)
Belgium (A-D)
Armenia (H-W)

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Looking back at the 2006 World Cup seeding

Two days ago I read this article by Frank Giase:

World Cup seeding -- and pride -- at stake when the U.S. men's soccer team faces Mexico in qualifier

That was the interesting part:

"U.S. coach Bruce Arena did the smart thing. In the final three meaningless qualifiers -- a scoreless tie in Guatemala, a 3-0 loss in Costa Rica and a 2-0 home win over Panama -- Arena packed the roster with inexperienced players.

But the results, combined with a who-cares 1-1 tie in Scotland that November, dropped the United States below Mexico in the FIFA rankings. And when the World Cup draw rolled around a month later, it was Mexico that received a top seed."

Mr. Giase seems to think Mexico were seeded at the expense of USA.

That is not true. Mexico were 5th in the seeding table, the USA were 9th, behind France, Italy and Argentina.

The matches against Guatemala, Costa Rica and Scotland only influenced the November 2005 FIFA ranking. Obviously, the 1998 and 2002 World Cups and the December 2003 and December 2004 FIFA rankings were already set in stone.

Here's the November 2005 top 10:

 1 Brazil         841
 2 Czech Republic 796
 3 Netherlands    791
 4 Argentina      774
 5 France         772
 6 Spain          771
 7 Mexico         768
 8 USA            766
 9 England        757
10 Portugal       754

Full ranking on fifa.com.

In order to be seeded, USA had to be at least 4th. And even then, they would have replaced Argentina, not Mexico.

Even winning against Guatemala and Costa Rica, I don't think the US could have climbed so high. Here's why:

In 2005, results from the last 8 years were taken into account, so it was not very easy to move quickly through the higher part of the table.

On top of that, the calculation method used back then placed greater weight on the best seven results in each of the 8 years. The match vs. Scotland was a friendly,

From Wikipedia:

In order to prevent teams with more fixtures than this being given an advantage, the calculation initially considered only the best seven results of a team. To include further results an average of them must be calculated.

For example, if a team played twelve matches:

* The best seven of the 12 results were identified
* The total score for these seven matches was calculated (X)
* The total score for all 12 matches was calculated
* This total was divided by 12 and multiplied by seven (Y)
* The total for the seven best results was added to the seven "average" results (X+Y)
* This total (X+Y) was divided by two for the final score

The Gold Cup final tournament was played in July 2005. The USA registered wins against Cuba, Canada, Jamaica and Honduras, tied against Costa Rica and won after PSO against Panama.

Between November 2004 and September 3rd, 2005 (the match against Guatemala), the USA had played 7 World cup qualifiers, getting six wins (Trinidad and Tobago twice, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama and Mexico) and a loss against Mexico.

Three friendlies with two wins (Colombia and Honduras) and loss to England.

Between November 2004 and November 2005 the USA have played 20 matches. With FIFA placing more weight on the best 7 results, getting the win in those three matches would have made little difference.

Let's assume the USA would have been 4th in November 2005.

In 2002, FIFA used the last three World Cups to compute the performance part. In 2006, they dropped the oldest one and it made no difference (see 2006 World Cup seeding post). With the USA 4th in the November ranking and with only two World Cup taken into account, the seeded teams would have been: Brazil, England, Spain, Germany, Mexico, France, Italy and USA. If we keep the 2002 seeding formula (using the last three World Cups), Argentina would return among the seeds.

Since FIFA announce the seeding formula after all the qualifiers are known, I don't think they would have dropped the oldest World Cup tournament from the equation.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for CONCACAF teams (12 August 2009)

The preliminary draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup took place on November 25th, 2007 and used the May 2007 FIFA ranking (for CONCACAF).

Assumptions:

- CONCACAF will again have 3.5 spots
- CONCACAF will again use the same qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams

The May 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between May 2007 and May 2011. We already have the "0.2" and "0.3" parts (matches played between May 2007 and May 2009) - that's basically 25% of the final ranking and a bit of the "0.5" part (matches played between May 2009 and May 2010). A lot can and will change before May 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving CONCACAF teams: 2009 Gold Cup knockout stages, 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, 2010 FIFA World Cup, 2010 Caribbean Championship, 2011 UNCAF Nations Cup and plenty of friendlies.

This is the May 2011 ranking (for CONCACAF only) using matches played up to and including August 12th, 2009 and matches scheduled up to May 2010 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.5" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

Honduras replace Canada in the first pot.

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points

 1  1 USA                            474
 2  2 Mexico                         427
 3  5 Honduras                       361
----------------------------------------
 4  3 Canada                         354
 5  4 Costa Rica                     345
 6  6 El Salvador                    215
----------------------------------------
 7  7 Panama                         208
 8  8 Jamaica                        200
 9  9 Haiti                          174
10 10 Trinidad and Tobago            163
11 11 Grenada                        115
12 12 Antigua and Barbuda            112
----------------------------------------
13 13 Guatemala                       90
----------------------------------------
14 14 Cuba                            87
15 15 Bermuda                         80
16 16 Barbados                        70
17 17 Suriname                        63
18 18 Guyana                          53
18 18 Nicaragua                       53
20 20 Netherlands Antilles            50
21 21 Puerto Rico                     48
22 22 St. Kitts and Nevis             38
23 23 Cayman Islands                  24
24 24 Belize                          22
----------------------------------------
24 24 St. Vincent and the Grenadines  22
26 26 St. Lucia                       13
26 26 Turks and Caicos Islands        13
28 28 British Virgin Islands          12
29 29 Bahamas                          9
30 30 Aruba                            7
31 31 Dominica                         5
32 32 US Virgin Islands                3
33 33 Anguilla                         0
33 33 Dominican Republic               0
33 33 Montserrat                       0

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for CAF (12 August 2009)

The preliminary draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup took place on November 25th, 2007 and used the July 2007 FIFA ranking.

Assumptions:

- CAF will again have 5 spots
- CAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CAF will choose the July 2011 ranking for seeding

The July 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between July 2007 and July 2011. We already have the "0.2" part (matches played between July 2007 and July 2008) and the "0.3" part (matches played between July 2008 and July 2009) - that's 25% of the formula. A lot can and will change before July 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving African teams: 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, 2010 FIFA World Cup, CAN 2012 qualifiers and plenty of friendlies.

This is the July 2011 ranking (for CAF only) using matches played up to and including August 12th, 2009 and matches scheduled up to July 2010 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.5" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

Senegal, Angola And Tanzania replace Gambia, Sudan and Malawi in the second pot.

First round seeding:

43 43 Mauritania                23
45 45 Lesotho                   22
46 46 Eritrea                   16
47 47 Mauritius                 15
48 48 Guinea-Bissau             12
----------------------------------
48 48 Djibouti                  12
50 50 Seychelles                11
51 51 Central African Republic   0
51 51 Comoros                    0
51 51 Sao Tome e Principe        0

Winners advance to the first group stage.

Seeding for the first group stage:

 1  1 Gabon                    243
 2  3 Ghana                    235
 3  2 Côte d'Ivoire            234
 4  6 Algeria                  229
 5  5 Cameroon                 222
 6  3 Egypt                    215
 7  6 Nigeria                  180
 8 10 Mali                     174
 9  8 Burkina Faso             164
10  9 Tunisia                  154
11 12 Guinea                   144
12 11 Morocco                  143
----------------------------------
13 13 Togo                     127
14 14 Libya                    121
15 18 Congo                    117
16 15 Uganda                   116
16 15 South Africa             116
18 26 Senegal                  112
19 23 Benin                    107
19 31 Angola                   107
21 22 Mozambique               106
21 17 Kenya                    106
23 19 Zambia                   103
24 27 Tanzania                 102
----------------------------------
25 20 Gambia                   101
26 21 Sudan                    100
27 24 Malawi                    87
28 25 Rwanda                    86
29 28 Congo DR                  78
30 29 Zimbabwe                  77
31 30 Namibia                   76
32 31 Sierra Leone              74
33 33 Madagascar                73
34 34 Cape Verde Islands        71
35 35 Chad                      67
36 36 Burundi                   52
----------------------------------
37 37 Equatorial Guinea         51
38 38 Botswana                  49
39 39 Niger                     47
40 40 Swaziland                 43
41 41 Liberia                   39
42 42 Ethiopia                  29
43 43 Somalia                   23
43 43 Mauritania                23
45 45 Lesotho                   22
46 46 Eritrea                   16
47 47 Mauritius                 15
48 48 Guinea-Bissau             12

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding for UEFA teams (12 August 2009)

The preliminary draw for the 2010 FIFA World Cup took place on November 25th, 2007 and used the November 2007 FIFA ranking.

Assumptions:

- UEFA will again have 13 spots
- UEFA will again use the system with 9 groups
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- FIFA will hold the draw in November 2011

The November 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between November 2007 and November 2011. We already have the "0.2" part (matches played between November 2007 and November 2008) - that's basically 10% of the final ranking and a bit of the "0.3" part (matches played between November 2008 and November 2009). A lot can and will change before November 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving European teams: 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers, 2009 FIFA Confederations Cup, 2010 FIFA World Cup, EURO 2012 qualifiers and plenty of friendlies.

UEFA will only use the national team coefficient for the European Championships draws (qualifying and final tournament).

This is the November 2011 ranking (for UEFA only) using matches played up to and including August 12th, 2009 and matches scheduled up to November 2009 (only those on fifa.com).

The "0.3" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).

Croatia up to 3rd.

Norway climb from 5th pot to 3rd pot. As a result, Latvia drop to 4th pot, Finland to 5th pot.
Turkey up to 2nd pot, replacing Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Moldova up to 5th pot, replacing Armenia.

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points

 1  1 Spain               368
 2  2 Netherlands         293
 3  7 Croatia             226
 4  3 Russia              203
 5  6 Germany             198
 6  4 Italy               197
 7  5 England             193
 8  8 Serbia              182
 9  9 Denmark             172
-----------------------------
10 11 Switzerland         164
11 14 Bulgaria            162
11 10 Ukraine             162
13 13 France              160
14 12 Greece              152
14 15 Israel              152
16 19 Turkey              149
17 16 Portugal            146
18 16 Republic of Ireland 142
-----------------------------
19 20 Northern Ireland    132
20 18 Bosnia-Herzegovina  130
20 22 Czech Republic      130
22 23 Romania             129
23 23 Sweden              126
24 21 Slovakia            124
25 26 Poland              119
26 37 Norway              117
27 25 Hungary             112
-----------------------------
28 29 Lithuania           101
29 27 Latvia              100
30 28 FYR Macedonia        99
31 33 Slovenia             97
32 35 Montenegro           96
33 30 Belarus              89
33 30 Scotland             89
35 32 Austria              87
36 33 Wales                85
-----------------------------
37 36 Finland              80
38 37 Belgium              78
39 41 Albania              68
40 39 Estonia              64
41 40 Cyprus               57
42 42 Iceland              56
43 43 Luxembourg           45
44 47 Moldova              38
45 44 Georgia              35
-----------------------------
45 44 Armenia              35
47 46 Kazakhstan           34
48 50 Malta                27
49 48 Azerbaijan           24
50 49 Faroe Islands        23
51 51 Liechtenstein         5
52 52 Andorra               0
52 52 San Marino            0

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

EURO 2012: Qualifying draw coefficients (12 August 2009)

The coefficients for the EURO 2012 qualifying draw will take into account results from:

2006 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2008 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2010 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting

The draw will take place on 7 February 2010.

Click here for more info on the coefficient system.

As mentioned before, I assume UEFA will use a qualifying system with six groups of six teams and three of five teams (Poland (26340) and Ukraine (24626) - automatically qualified as hosts).

France up to first pot, replacing Greece.

Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points

 1  1 Netherlands        36296
 2  3 Germany            35393
 3  2 Spain              34924
 4  4 England            32299
 5  5 Italy              31738
 6  6 Croatia            31317
 7  7 Russia             29706
 8 11 France             28891
 9  8 Serbia             28131
------------------------------
10  9 Greece             28045
11 10 Portugal           27939
12 12 Czech Republic     27491
13 13 Denmark            27222
14 14 Switzerland        27094
15 15 Sweden             27015
16 16 Turkey             26607
17 17 Romania            26205
18 18 Slovakia           25408
------------------------------
19 19 Israel             25091
20 20 Bulgaria           24758
21 21 Ireland            24448
22 25 Norway             24185
23 22 Scotland           24121
24 23 Northern Ireland   23758
25 24 Finland            23587
26 26 Bosnia-Herzegovina 22485
27 27 Hungary            21928
------------------------------
28 28 Austria            21560
29 29 Lithuania          20891
30 30 Latvia             20523
31 35 Slovenia           20441
32 31 Belgium            20345
33 32 Wales              20094
34 33 Belarus            19915
35 34 Macedonia          19484
36 36 Albania            17979
------------------------------
37 37 Cyprus             17171
38 38 Estonia            16692
39 39 Georgia            15959
40 40 Moldova            14994
41 41 Iceland            14904
42 42 Armenia            14044
43 43 Montenegro         13851
44 44 Kazakhstan         13590
45 45 Liechtenstein      13321
------------------------------
46 46 Azerbaijan         11960
47 47 Luxembourg         11692
48 48 Malta              11617
49 49 Faroe Islands       9580
50 50 Andorra             9457
51 51 San Marino          7983

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: September 2009 preview (II)

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Included: matches up to and including August 12th, 2009 (only those on fifa.com).

Next update: August 28th, 2009.

Still to play: St. Kitts - Jamaica (friendly), Nehru Cup (India, Syria, Sri Lanka, Lebanon, Kyrgyzstan), EAF Championship qualifiers (Korea DPR, Guam, Hong Kong, Chinese Taipei).

Some more matches played on August 12th could be added. For instance, Lesotho - Zimbabwe 1 - 1 is not yet on fifa.com.

Germany and Italy tied in 4th place.
Croatia and France swap places in the top 10.

Best movers:

13 - Kyrgyzstan*
10 - Congo
9 - Angola

Worst movers:

-22 - Congo DR
-17 - Tajikistan
-11 - India*, Cayman Islands and Samoa

Best movers in the top 50:

7 - Norway
6 - Mexico
5 - Chile

Worst movers in the top 50:

-7 - Uruguay
-6 - Ukraine and Scotland
-4 - Gabon and Hungary

Bahrain replace Saudi Arabia as 5th in AFC.

Ghana and Egypt tied for 3rd in CAF. Ghana overtake Nigeria and are now 4th, as Gabon drops out of the top 5. It's very close though - 5 African teams between 29th and 35th.

Trinidad and Tobago in the CONCACAF top 5, overtaking Canada and Jamaica.

Chile up to 3rd in CONMEBOL, going past Paraguay and Uruguay.

Three teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Serbia (13th - 14th in July 2009)
Australia (14th - 16th in July 2009)
Montenegro (90th - 96th in August 2009)

Benin will return to their best ever ranking - 79th, first achieved in August 2007.

Five teams will have their worst ever ranking:

Morocco (57th - 55th in June 2009)
Peru (92nd - 89th in June 2009)
Congo DR (118th - 102nd in July 2009)
India* (167th - 165th in March 2007)
Tonga (193rd - 192nd in July 2007)

* - has matches left to play before the deadline.

September 2009 rank - Team - September 2009 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Brazil	1604	0	-38
2	Spain	1588	0	-2
3	Netherlands	1376	0	-3
4	Germany	1186	0	-9
4	Italy	1186	1	5
6	Russia	1129	0	-32
7	England	1127	0	-8
8	Argentina	1113	0	33
9	Croatia	1101	1	70
10	France	1040	-1	-19
11	USA	974	1	-17
12	Greece	971	-1	-30
13	Serbia	916	1	-9
14	Australia	907	2	11
15	Switzerland	899	-2	-31
16	Denmark	892	-1	-17
17	Portugal	880	0	-1
18	Czech Republic	870	4	20
19	Bulgaria	859	4	20
20	Côte d'Ivoire	852	-2	-22
21	Chile	846	5	29
21	Israel	846	4	24
23	Paraguay	842	-3	-14
24	Mexico	835	6	36
25	Ukraine	829	-6	-40
26	Romania	827	1	13
27	Turkey	826	1	17
28	Uruguay	820	-7	-31
29	Cameroon	819	0	16
30	Scotland	804	-6	-33
31	Northern Ireland	795	1	11
32	Egypt	786	1	7
32	Ghana	786	3	14
34	Nigeria	773	0	0
35	Gabon	759	-4	-30
36	Ecuador	749	0	-19
36	Poland	749	4	43
38	Republic of Ireland	743	-1	-15
39	Costa Rica	735	-1	-7
40	Japan	734	-1	5
41	Sweden	723	0	21
42	Honduras	712	4	48
43	Norway	709	7	103
44	Algeria	707	3	46
45	Slovakia	686	-3	-1
46	Bosnia-Herzegovina	682	-2	2
47	Hungary	669	-4	-12
48	Colombia	657	-3	-11
49	Korea Republic	641	-1	15
50	Venezuela	604	4	21
51	Burkina Faso	602	0	4
52	Tunisia	601	-3	-13
53	Mali	593	5	42
54	Slovenia	576	6	37
55	Guinea	574	2	12
56	FYR Macedonia	569	-3	-20
57	Morocco	561	-2	-9
58	Latvia	555	-2	-8
59	Bolivia	547	4	25
60	Iran	541	1	7
61	Finland	537	-9	-56
62	Lithuania	533	-3	-12
63	Trinidad and Tobago	517	7	39
64	Bahrain	507	1	5
65	Saudi Arabia	505	-1	-15
66	Canada	504	0	6
67	Jamaica	488	2	-1
68	Wales	481	-1	-13
69	Belgium	480	-7	-53
70	Austria	473	-2	-20
71	Togo	454	0	-14
72	Uganda	448	3	7
73	South Africa	445	-1	-4
74	Oman	432	6	21
75	Panama	431	3	14
76	Cyprus	429	-3	-16
77	Belarus	420	-3	-24
78	Korea DPR	415	8	19
79	Benin	412	4	12
79	Congo	412	10	34
81	Senegal	410	3	11
82	Zambia	409	-5	-16
83	Libya	407	-8	-34
84	Qatar	400	1	3
85	Mozambique	399	-3	-3
86	El Salvador	398	-5	-10
86	Uzbekistan	398	-7	-14
88	Cuba	393	0	10
89	Moldova	391	-2	2
90	Montenegro	380	6	41
91	Syria	366	4	23
92	Peru	363	-3	-15
93	Angola	362	9	30
94	Albania	360	0	13
95	Tanzania	359	-2	9
96	Iceland	345	-4	-13
97	Sudan	343	-6	-24
98	Iraq	340	2	6
99	Gambia	337	-1	0
100	New Zealand	336	-1	0
101	Kenya	334	4	9
102	Namibia	331	1	5
103	Fiji	330	-2	-3
104	Barbados	326	2	6
105	China PR	313	3	1
106	Malawi	312	2	0
107	Antigua and Barbuda	311	1	-1
108	Grenada	305	5	0
109	Haiti	304	6	9
110	Kuwait	298	6	6
111	Guatemala	297	-4	-19
112	Cape Verde Islands	296	2	0
112	Georgia	296	-9	-30
114	Estonia	289	-2	-19
115	Thailand	286	2	-1
116	Luxembourg	282	3	-2
117	Rwanda	278	0	-9
118	Congo DR	275	-22	-64
119	Suriname	272	-8	-37
120	Zimbabwe	265	0	-16
121	Sierra Leone	241	4	0
122	Guyana	240	-1	-29
123	United Arab Emirates	238	1	-4
124	Chad	233	2	0
125	Armenia	231	-2	-12
125	Burundi	231	3	11
127	Singapore	223	0	-5
128	Equatorial Guinea	219	1	0
128	Jordan	219	-6	-26
130	Madagascar	208	2	6
131	Indonesia	202	3	16
132	Botswana	201	-1	-6
133	New Caledonia	199	5	31
134	Niger	190	-1	3
135	Hong Kong	186	-1	0
136	Ethiopia	181	0	3
136	Kazakhstan	181	-6	-27
138	Vanuatu	177	4	25
139	Azerbaijan	174	-2	-1
140	Malta	166	6	26
141	Nicaragua	165	-2	0
142	Yemen	163	-1	4
143	Liberia	161	-3	0
144	Myanmar	150	3	11
145	Vietnam	149	-1	0
146	Turkmenistan	145	-1	3
147	Kyrgyzstan	141	13	39
148	Lebanon	138	0	0
148	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	138	2	5
150	St. Kitts and Nevis	135	-1	0
151	Liechtenstein	124	-1	-9
152	Malaysia	121	0	1
153	Bermuda	119	-10	-31
154	Maldives	117	0	0
155	Swaziland	115	-2	-4
156	Eritrea	114	3	8
157	Sri Lanka	112	-1	0
158	Philippines	108	0	0
159	Mauritania	99	2	0
160	Solomon Islands	97	1	-2
161	Faroe Islands	96	2	0
161	Lesotho	96	3	1
163	Netherlands Antilles	88	2	0
164	Puerto Rico	87	2	0
165	Bangladesh	85	4	5
165	Pakistan	85	2	0
167	India	83	-11	-29
168	Somalia	82	0	0
169	Chinese Taipei	70	3	0
170	Laos	69	1	-4
171	Cambodia	67	2	3
172	Tajikistan	65	-17	-51
173	Palestine	62	4	5
174	Mongolia	61	1	0
175	Nepal	60	1	0
176	Belize	57	1	0
177	Bahamas	53	2	0
177	Seychelles	53	2	0
179	Turks and Caicos Islands	51	2	0
180	Brunei Darussalam	46	2	0
181	Cayman Islands	44	-11	-32
182	Mauritius	43	1	-2
183	Dominican Republic	40	1	0
184	Guinea-Bissau	38	2	0
184	Samoa	38	-11	-26
186	Cook Islands	34	1	0
186	Guam	34	1	0
188	Djibouti	33	1	0
189	St. Lucia	32	1	0
189	Tahiti	32	1	0
191	Afghanistan	30	1	0
191	British Virgin Islands	30	1	0
193	Macau	28	1	0
193	Tonga	28	-9	-12
195	Andorra	18	0	1
196	Bhutan	17	-1	0
197	Dominica	12	0	0
198	Aruba	11	0	0
199	Timor-Leste	9	0	0
200	Comoros	8	0	0
200	US Virgin Islands	8	0	0
202	Central African Republic	4	0	0
203	American Samoa	0	0	0
203	Anguilla	0	0	0
203	Montserrat	0	0	0
203	Papua New Guinea	0	0	0
203	San Marino	0	0	0

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.