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Friday, September 4, 2009

2010 World Cup: Seeding formula based on current standings (4 September 2009)

Seeded teams for the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa.

Qualified teams determined using the current standings and the FIFA rankings.

Croatia/Bahrain replace Scotland/Saudi Arabia.

Macedonia miss the UEFA playoffs as worst runner-ups (see Wikipedia).

Rank in the seeding table - Country - Total - Performance points - FIFA Ranking Points
 1 Brazil         59.7 29.3 30.3
 2 Germany        59.3 30.3 29.0
 3 Italy          56.7 27.3 29.3
 4 Spain          56.0 25.3 30.7
 5 England        51.0 26.3 24.7
 6 Argentina      49.0 21.0 28.0
 7 France         47.7 23.3 24.3
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 8 Netherlands    43.3 14.7 28.7
 9 Mexico         36.7 19.3 17.3
10 USA            34.7 13.7 21.0
11 Croatia        34.0  9.0 25.0
12 Switzerland    31.7 15.3 16.3
13 Paraguay       30.3 11.7 18.7
14 Ghana          27.7 13.3 14.3
15 Russia         26.3  3.0 23.3
16 Australia      26.0 11.3 14.7
17 Japan          25.7 13.3 12.3
18 Korea Republic 25.0 15.7  9.3
19 Denmark        22.7  7.7 15.0
20 Serbia         22.7  5.3 17.3
21 Greece         22.0  0.0 22.0
22 Côte d'Ivoire  21.3  6.0 15.3
23 Tunisia        15.7  8.7  7.0
24 Costa Rica     15.7  8.3  7.3
25 Chile          13.0  0.0 13.0
26 Honduras        8.7  0.0  8.7
27 Slovakia        7.0  0.0  7.0
28 South Africa    6.3  3.0  3.3
29 Gabon           6.0  0.0  6.0
30 Algeria         5.0  0.0  5.0
31 Bahrain         2.7  0.0  2.7
32 Korea DPR       1.0  0.0  1.0
Top 7 + South Africa seeded.

Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Croatia, Denmark, Greece, Netherlands, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Switzerland
Pot 3: Australia, Bahrain, Costa Rica, Honduras, Japan, Korea DPR, Korea Republic, Mexico
Pot 4: Algeria, Chile, Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon, Ghana, Paraguay, Tunisia
Special pot: USA

For an explanation regarding the special pot, see this World Cup seeding post.

Possible draw (using random.org):

Group A: South Africa, Denmark, Japan, USA
Group B: Spain, Slovakia, Korea DPR, Chile
Group C: Argentina, Croatia, Bahrain, Algeria
Group D: Brazil, Serbia, Korea Republic, Côte d'Ivoire
Group E: France, Switzerland, Australia, Tunisia
Group F: Italy, Greece, Mexico, Ghana
Group G: Germany, Russia, Honduras, Paraguay
Group H: England, Netherlands, Costa Rica, Gabon

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7 comments:

  1. AnonymousSeptember 8, 2009 at 8:54 PM

    If conmebol beats concacaf in playoff, I think pots will likely be 3 unseeded CONMEBOL + 5 CAF and CONCACAF + AFC (no need for special pot either!). If CONCACAF #4 wins, it's more complicated to pair up the regions. Perhaps better to begin with would be pairing the 6 unseeded teams from the Americas with the seeded teams other than BRA & ARG. But then the choice of the other two in that pot (who will then get either BRA or ARG) would certainly be controversial.

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  2. SocratesSeptember 9, 2009 at 1:00 PM

    The Netherlands are not among the top 7 countries in this list. The list shows that their total points are 43.3 (14.7 and 28.7). But where do these numbers come from. I mean, how have you calculated them? Can you tell me what the format/procedure is? Can The Netherlands still be one of the 7 strongest teams? Today is their last qualification match in Scotland. Thanks for your help.

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  3. EdgarSeptember 9, 2009 at 1:06 PM

    Here's the performance part.

    And the seeding formula. Scroll to the end of that page and you'll see a link to an official FIFA pdf document.

    I don't post this info because the people following the seeding posts usually know the formula and the performance part.

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  4. EdgarSeptember 9, 2009 at 1:07 PM

    Oh, and to answer your final question. If FIFA keep the 2006 seeding formula, Netherlands need two of Brazil, Germany, Italy, Spain, England, Argentina, France and Portugal to stay at home. With Brazil already qualified and Germany, Italy, Spain and England almost there, you need two of Argentina, France and Portugal to miss out on qualification.

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  5. HurricaneHugoSeptember 14, 2009 at 9:08 PM

    When are you going to update it again?

    The picture is much clearer now!

    ReplyDelete
  6. UnknownSeptember 15, 2009 at 2:08 PM

    So I assume that Portugal is below France, but above Netherlands?

    I think that Honduras / Costa Rica will lose to the CONMEBOL 5th place. Especially if it is Uruguay - very difficult in Montevideo.

    RE: your netherlands top 7 comment. The Germans may still miss despite being undefeated thus far. If Russia beat them at home they go into a play off. Is that play off draw random? THey could play France or Portugal

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  7. EdgarSeptember 16, 2009 at 7:55 AM

    @Hugo

    I usually update the seeding tables after FIFA release their ranking. So basically, not before October 16th. I'll see if I can find the time and post it before the October matches.

    @Damian

    Yes, Portugal is between France and the Netherlands.
    There's no info on the play-off draw yet.

    ReplyDelete