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Friday, September 18, 2009

2010 World Cup: Seeding formula based on qualification chances (18 September 2009)

Seeded teams for the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa using the 2006 FIFA World Cup seeding formula (see Wikipedia). The November 2009 ranking is computed as if no more matches would be played between today and November 20th.

Qualified teams determined using Voros' qualification chances.

Bahrain/Cameroon/Ecuador/Portugal replace Costa Rica/Croatia/Gabon/Saudi Arabia.

Rank in the seeding table - Country - Total - Performance points - FIFA Ranking Points
 1 Brazil         59.7 29.3 30.3
 2 Germany        58.7 30.3 28.3
 3 Italy          56.7 27.3 29.3
 4 Spain          56.0 25.3 30.7
 5 England        52.0 26.3 25.7
 6 France         48.3 23.3 25.0
 7 Argentina      48.3 21.0 27.3
--------------------------------
 8 Portugal       46.0 22.3 23.7
 9 Netherlands    43.0 14.7 28.3
10 Mexico         38.0 19.3 18.7
11 USA            35.0 13.7 21.3
12 Switzerland    31.7 15.3 16.3
13 Paraguay       30.0 11.7 18.3
14 Ghana          28.3 13.3 15.0
15 Russia         26.7  3.0 23.7
16 Ecuador        25.7 17.0  8.7
17 Korea Republic 24.0 15.7  8.3
18 Japan          24.0 13.3 10.7
19 Cameroon       23.7  3.0 20.7
20 Australia      22.0 11.3 10.7
21 Côte d'Ivoire  21.7  6.0 15.7
22 Denmark        21.0  7.7 13.3
23 Serbia         21.0  5.3 15.7
24 Greece         18.7  0.0 18.7
25 Tunisia        14.7  8.7  6.0
26 Chile          10.7  0.0 10.7
27 Honduras        7.7  0.0  7.7
28 Algeria         6.7  0.0  6.7
29 Slovakia        6.3  0.0  6.3
30 South Africa    5.7  3.0  2.7
31 Bahrain         2.3  0.0  2.3
32 Korea DPR       1.3  0.0  1.3
Top 7 + South Africa seeded.

The pots:

Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Switzerland
Pot 3: Australia, Bahrain, Honduras, Japan, Korea DPR, Korea Republic, Mexico, USA
Pot 4: Algeria, Cameroon, Chile, Côte d'Ivoire, Ecuador, Ghana, Paraguay, Tunisia

Possible draw (using random.org):

Group A: South Africa, Switzerland, Korea DPR, Chile
Group B: England, Slovakia, Japan, Côte d'Ivoire
Group C: Spain, Russia, Korea Republic, Ecuador
Group D: Brazil, Netherlands, USA, Tunisia
Group E: Germany, Portugal, Australia, Cameroon
Group F: Italy, Serbia, Bahrain, Paraguay
Group G: Argentina, Denmark, Mexico, Ghana
Group H: France, Greece, Honduras, Algeria

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2 comments:

  1. UnknownOctober 13, 2009 at 7:27 AM

    Will be interesting if Argentina do not qualify....

    Will that make the pots...

    A. South Africa, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Spain, England, France, Portugal
    B. Netherlands, Switzerland, Russia, Denmark, Serbia, Slovenia, New Zealand
    C. Australia, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Ecuador, Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile
    D. Ivory Coast, Ghana, Algeria, Tunisia, Cameroon, USA, Mexico, Costa Rica

    So there could potentially be a group with....

    South Africa, New Zealand, North Korea, Costa Rica

    or

    Brazil, Netherlands, Australia, Ivory Coast

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousOctober 24, 2009 at 11:55 PM

    Group H - France V Algeria now that would be a big match considering the history between the two countries

    ReplyDelete