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Monday, September 7, 2009

FIFA Ranking: October 2009 probable results (II)

Here are the probable results used for the October 2009 probable ranking (II). They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

08/Sep Republic of Ireland - South Africa 1 (Friendly)
09/Sep China PR - Senegal X (Friendly)
09/Sep Japan - Ghana X (Friendly)
09/Sep Angola - Cape Verde Islands X (Friendly)
09/Sep Iceland - Georgia X (Friendly)
09/Sep Jordan - New Zealand X (Friendly)
09/Sep Bolivia - Ecuador X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Cameroon - Gabon 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Faroe Islands - Lithuania 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Czech Republic - San Marino 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Uruguay - Colombia X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Malta - Sweden 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Paraguay - Argentina X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep El Salvador - Costa Rica X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Trinidad and Tobago - USA X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Liechtenstein - Finland 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Scotland - Netherlands 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Wales - Russia 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Northern Ireland - Slovakia X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Andorra - Kazakhstan 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Bosnia-Herzegovina - Turkey X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Belarus - Ukraine X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep England - Croatia 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Mexico - Honduras 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Montenegro - Cyprus 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Albania - Denmark 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Venezuela - Peru 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Norway - FYR Macedonia 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Germany - Azerbaijan 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Hungary - Portugal X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Slovenia - Poland X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Romania - Austria 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Italy - Bulgaria 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Serbia - France X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Armenia - Belgium X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Qatar - Oman X (Friendly)
09/Sep Israel - Luxembourg 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Latvia - Switzerland X (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Moldova - Greece 2 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Spain - Estonia 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Brazil - Chile 1 (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
09/Sep Saudi Arabia - Bahrain X Saudi Arabia PSO (FIFA World Cup Qualifier)
11/Sep Malaysia - Lesotho X (Friendly)
17/Sep South Africa - Madagascar 1 (Friendly)
19/Sep St. Kitts and Nevis - St. Vincent and the Grenadines X (Friendly)
30/Sep China PR - Botswana 1 (Friendly)
30/Sep Mexico - Colombia X (Friendly)

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7 comments:

  1. matilda maniacSeptember 7, 2009 at 2:39 PM

    Interested to see that you've predicted Saudi Arabia to get up over Bahrain in a penalty shootout (based on ELO). While a draw might be the most likely scenario, it only reaches penalties if it is a scoreless draw AET, as away goals count double in these knockout phases. All the other draw possibilites tips the balance towards Bahrain.

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  2. EdgarSeptember 7, 2009 at 2:44 PM

    ELO can't predict the score in a draw - I'm always using 0 - 0 for draws.

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  3. VirtusSeptember 8, 2009 at 4:30 AM

    Hi Edgar, love the site. I am wondering how you use the ELO ratings to predict scores. I know how to calculate the win expectancy and have used that to generate my own personal predictions for scorelines, but I would like to know if there is a way to use the ELO ratings to generate scorelines. Thanks, and keep up the great work!

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  4. EdgarSeptember 9, 2009 at 8:15 AM

    Hi Virtus,

    For every match, I use the result that will have the teams exchange the least amount of points. However, in some case, 2 - 0 or 1 - 0 will have the same outcome (i.e. the same number of points exchanged). I even have 10 - 0 results as in Germany vs. San Marino matches for instance.

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  5. VirtusSeptember 9, 2009 at 9:02 AM

    Thanks Edgar. Another question: how do you determine what should be a win versus what should be a draw? Or perhaps more to the point, have you found that the ELO ratings are even reliable for predicting outcomes?

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  6. EdgarSeptember 9, 2009 at 9:04 AM

    Virtus, read this post:

    2010 WCQ: Explanation of second place standings

    Well, Elo is better than my predictions, that's for sure :)

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  7. VirtusSeptember 9, 2009 at 9:54 AM

    Thanks, I'll be more thorough next time instead of asking you questions you've already answered. lol

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