FIFA Ranking: Time works in Brazil's favor

Spain will keep their spot in the next three releases of the FIFA ranking (December 2009, January 2010 and February 2009). If they win against France on March 3rd, 2010, they will keep their place even in the March 2009 release, because I'm sure Brazil will play a friendly on the same day and that will bring their average down. However, even if Brazil lose that match, the seleção will return to the top of the rankings on April 28th, 2010.
If Spain don't win against France, Brazil could return to the top on March 31st, 2010.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers

This may seem a bit early, but it's not. The draw for the 2012 ACN qualifiers will take place a couple of days after the final of ACN 2010, probably after February 3rd, the day of the first FIFA ranking release for 2010.

Based on the 2008 ACN draw procedure, it won't actually be a draw. The first seeded team will be placed with the weakest team from each of the other three pots.

With 51 members and 14 places available, CAF will probably use a system with 12 groups of 4 teams and one with 3 teams, with the winners and the best runner-up qualifying. However, if at least 3 members don't enter the qualifying rounds, we'll probably see 12 groups of 4 teams with the winners and the top two runners-up joining the hosts in 2012.

The "usual suspects" to drop from qualifying:

2006 ACN qualifiers:

Central African Republic withdrew.

2008 ACN qualifiers:

Central African Republic, Comoros, Somalia and São Tomé and Príncipe did not enter.
Guinea-Bissau were not allowed to enter.
Djibouti withdrew.

2010 ACN qualifiers:

São Tomé and Príncipe and the Central African Republic withdrew.

The seeding formula is the sum of:

• 2010 WCQ points
• bonus for qualifying for the 2010 WC (6 points)
  
• 2010 ACN group stage points
• 2010 ACN performance bonus (12 for the winner, 9 for the finalist, 6 for the SF, 3 for the QF)
  

The rest of the teams will be ranked using the January 2010 FIFA ranking.

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Algeria, Ghana, Nigeria, Egypt, Burkina Faso, Tunisia, Benin, Mali, Togo, Mozambique, Zambia
Pot 2: Malawi, Morocco, Guinea, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, South Africa, Senegal, Uganda, Cape Verde Islands, Congo, Angola, Tanzania
Pot 3: Zimbabwe, Namibia, Congo DR, Gambia, Libya, Botswana, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone, Swaziland, Chad, Burundi, Lesotho, Madagascar
Pot 4: Liberia, Mauritania, Niger, Eritrea, Comoros, Seychelles, Mauritius, Somalia, Djibouti, Guinea-Bissau, Central African Republic, Sao Tome e Principe

I didn't give South Africa the bonus points for WC participation, because they didn't even reach the final CAF qualifying round.
With the exception of Angola, no team below Sudan can break in the top 19.

Group 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Tanzania, Madagascar, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Cameroon, Angola, Lesotho, Central African Republic
Group 3: Algeria, Congo, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Ghana, Cape Verde Islands, Chad, Djibouti
Group 5: Nigeria, Uganda, Swaziland, Somalia
Group 6: Egypt, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Mauritius
Group 7: Burkina Faso, South Africa, Ethiopia, Seychelles
Group 8: Tunisia, Sudan, Botswana, Comoros
Group 9: Benin, Rwanda, Libya, Eritrea
Group 10: Mali, Kenya, Gambia, Niger
Group 11: Togo, Guinea, Congo DR, Mauritania
Group 12: Mozambique, Morocco, Namibia, Liberia
Group 13: Zambia, Malawi, Zimbabwe

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

November 2009: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Solomon Islands	171	119	52
Guinea-Bissau	190	140	50
Tahiti	195	149	46
Central African Republic	200	155	45
Papua New Guinea	203	165	38
Tajikistan	162	126	36
Niger	164	130	34
Libya	118	86	32
Sao Tome e Principe	203	174	29
Syria	91	64	27

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Luxembourg	128	169	-41
Burkina Faso	49	87	-38
Grenada	103	137	-34
Faroe Islands	120	154	-34
Nicaragua	134	168	-34
Benin	59	92	-33
Northern Ireland	39	71	-32
Gabon	48	77	-29
Philippines	165	194	-29
Algeria	28	56	-28

Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Japan	43	17	26
Iran	63	41	22
Saudi Arabia	65	44	21
Korea Republic	52	32	20
Turkey	41	23	18
Sweden	42	26	16
Venezuela	50	37	13
Colombia	40	30	10
Denmark	26	17	9
Finland	54	45	9

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Burkina Faso	49	87	-38
Northern Ireland	39	71	-32
Gabon	48	77	-29
Algeria	28	56	-28
Latvia	45	70	-25
Israel	25	40	-15
Slovenia	33	47	-14
Slovakia	34	48	-14
Czech Republic	23	36	-13
Mali	47	60	-13

Matches I would have liked to see in December:

Japan - Northern Ireland
Iran - Latvia
Saudi Arabia - Algeria
Korea Republic - Slovakia
Turkey - Slovenia
Sweden - Burkina Faso
Venezuela - Gabon
Colombia - Israel
Denmark - Czech Republic
Finland - Benin

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Teams in need of matches for the December 2009 ranking

There are 60 teams that will not have the required 5 matches in the last 12 months when the December 2009 FIFA Ranking will be released. For these teams, FIFA will basically add a number of "virtual defeats" equal to the difference between the number of matches actually played by that team in the last 12 months and the required 5 matches.

Only Cape Verde Islands will be in the top 100.

19 countries managed to get positive results in the last 12 months, but they lose points because of the 5 matches requirement.

Country - Points lost - Interim December 2009 rank

Barbados                       175 128
Antigua and Barbuda             84 130
Myanmar                         51 139
Cook Islands                    51 184
Guyana                          46 126
Cape Verde Islands              40  97
Comoros                         25 176
Libya                           23 115
Netherlands Antilles            21 166
Congo DR                        17 107
Philippines                     17 164
Cambodia                        17 174
Belize                          14 172
Suriname                        13 143
St. Vincent and the Grenadines  13 151
Mongolia                        13 170
Tonga                           12 189
St. Kitts and Nevis              9 153
Nepal                            4 175

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: December 2009 interim ranking

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Included: matches up to and including November 22nd, 2009.

Next update: December 10th, 2009.

This is the December ranking computed as if no more matches would be played before December 10th - the deadline for the December ranking. The top 74 teams will not be playing matches.
There are two competitions set to start in a couple of days: CECAFA Cup and SAFF Cup.

Spain will keep the first spot.

Best movers:

17 - Jordan
7 - Kenya and Vietnam
6 - Gambia and Indonesia

Worst movers:

-35 - Grenada
-23 - Cuba
-18 - Eritrea

Best movers in the top 50:

5 - Egypt
3 - Ghana
2 - Algeria, Chile, Ukraine and Slovenia

Worst movers in the top 50:

-4 - Romania
-3 - Bulgaria
-2 - Mexico, Czech Republic, Denmark and Ecuador

Iran drop out of the AFC top 5, replaced by Saudi Arabia.
Egypt overtake Algeria for 4th in Africa and 1st in the Arab world. Some consolation...

December 2009 rank - Team - December 2009 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Spain	1627	0	5
2	Brazil	1568	0	-24
3	Netherlands	1288	0	9
4	Italy	1209	0	-6
5	Portugal	1176	0	-5
6	Germany	1173	0	3
7	France	1117	0	-5
8	Argentina	1085	0	0
9	England	1076	0	13
10	Croatia	1042	0	-8
11	Cameroon	1035	0	0
12	Russia	1026	1	7
13	Greece	1016	-1	-12
14	USA	980	0	0
15	Chile	936	2	10
16	Côte d'Ivoire	934	0	7
17	Mexico	931	-2	0
18	Switzerland	924	0	0
19	Serbia	916	1	16
20	Uruguay	909	-1	8
21	Australia	863	0	0
22	Nigeria	848	0	0
22	Ukraine	848	2	6
24	Egypt	833	5	13
25	Czech Republic	828	-2	-15
26	Algeria	823	2	0
26	Israel	823	-1	-14
28	Denmark	820	-2	-15
29	Paraguay	806	1	-10
30	Bulgaria	801	-3	-26
31	Slovenia	767	2	11
32	Norway	760	-1	-20
33	Slovakia	751	1	-4
34	Ghana	747	3	8
35	Republic of Ireland	746	1	0
36	Romania	745	-4	-18
37	Ecuador	738	-2	-12
37	Honduras	738	1	0
39	Colombia	736	1	0
40	Northern Ireland	730	-1	-7
41	Turkey	728	0	-1
42	Sweden	721	0	-6
43	Japan	709	0	0
44	Costa Rica	701	0	7
45	Latvia	677	0	7
46	Scotland	665	0	0
47	Mali	662	0	0
48	Gabon	660	0	0
49	Burkina Faso	650	0	0
50	Venezuela	646	0	0
51	Bosnia-Herzegovina	642	0	-1
52	Korea Republic	625	0	0
53	Tunisia	614	0	1
54	Hungary	613	1	10
55	Finland	592	-1	-13
56	Bolivia	573	1	0
56	Canada	573	1	0
58	Poland	556	-2	-19
59	Benin	532	0	-2
60	Bahrain	524	1	0
61	Austria	523	1	3
62	Lithuania	521	-2	-4
63	Saudi Arabia	509	2	8
64	Iran	507	-1	-11
65	FYR Macedonia	495	1	4
66	Belgium	492	-2	-12
67	Morocco	477	0	1
68	Cyprus	471	0	-1
68	Peru	471	2	4
70	Panama	469	-1	1
71	Togo	467	-1	0
72	Mozambique	462	0	0
73	Guinea	459	2	9
74	Montenegro	456	-1	0
75	Uganda	452	3	24
76	Uzbekistan	440	0	3
77	Wales	420	2	-7
78	El Salvador	412	4	5
79	Oman	410	4	7
80	Belarus	406	0	-20
81	Jamaica	404	-7	-47
82	New Zealand	400	-5	-33
82	Trinidad and Tobago	400	-1	-21
84	Korea DPR	377	0	-22
84	South Africa	377	2	0
86	Qatar	376	1	2
87	Zambia	374	3	16
88	Iraq	364	0	0
89	Senegal	361	0	-1
90	Haiti	349	-5	-35
91	Iceland	346	1	0
91	Syria	346	0	-2
93	China PR	340	4	12
94	Moldova	338	-1	0
95	Angola	337	-1	0
96	Albania	336	2	9
97	Cape Verde Islands	331	4	15
98	Kenya	329	7	37
99	Malawi	326	-5	-11
100	Armenia	321	-1	-2
101	Congo	320	-1	0
102	Estonia	308	0	5
103	Kuwait	301	0	3
104	Thailand	296	3	7
105	Tanzania	293	1	2
106	Rwanda	285	4	30
107	Congo DR	271	2	10
108	Sudan	268	3	21
109	Zimbabwe	265	-1	0
110	Singapore	260	1	13
111	Jordan	256	17	71
112	United Arab Emirates	248	-1	1
113	Namibia	246	1	0
114	Azerbaijan	237	2	0
115	Libya	232	3	4
116	Gambia	224	6	6
117	Faroe Islands	222	3	2
118	Botswana	219	3	0
119	Cuba	218	-23	-113
120	Burundi	216	4	2
121	Indonesia	206	6	8
122	Guatemala	205	3	2
123	Vietnam	203	7	19
124	Georgia	202	1	-1
125	Kazakhstan	200	-6	-26
126	Guyana	191	-9	-41
127	Luxembourg	185	1	0
128	Barbados	181	-13	-57
129	Ethiopia	179	2	-3
130	Antigua and Barbuda	176	-7	-40
130	Yemen	176	2	-1
132	Fiji	167	1	-7
133	Nicaragua	165	1	0
134	India	158	1	-5
135	Equatorial Guinea	152	0	-11
135	Swaziland	152	3	0
137	Sierra Leone	145	4	8
138	Grenada	144	-35	-154
139	Myanmar	142	-4	-21
140	Turkmenistan	139	0	0
141	Bermuda	138	3	5
142	Hong Kong	137	-1	0
143	Suriname	133	1	0
144	Chad	130	3	0
145	Malta	128	4	0
146	Lebanon	126	1	-4
146	New Caledonia	126	-7	-21
148	Lesotho	120	2	0
149	Maldives	119	-3	-13
150	Sri Lanka	113	4	5
151	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	112	-8	-24
152	Liechtenstein	110	0	0
153	Vanuatu	108	4	7
154	St. Kitts and Nevis	107	5	13
155	Madagascar	105	0	0
156	Kyrgyzstan	103	0	0
157	Malaysia	102	-5	-8
158	Liberia	98	0	0
159	Chinese Taipei	93	1	0
160	Niger	92	4	6
161	Puerto Rico	87	1	0
162	Tajikistan	86	0	-1
163	Pakistan	85	-2	-3
164	Philippines	83	1	0
165	Bangladesh	81	0	-2
166	Netherlands Antilles	80	2	0
167	Somalia	77	0	-5
168	Mauritania	70	1	0
169	Eritrea	66	-18	-49
170	Mongolia	61	0	0
171	Solomon Islands	60	0	0
172	Belize	57	1	0
172	Palestine	57	3	3
174	Cambodia	56	-2	-3
175	Nepal	52	1	-1
176	Comoros	46	2	0
177	Turks and Caicos Islands	45	2	0
178	Laos	44	-4	-11
178	Seychelles	44	2	0
180	Bahamas	42	-3	-5
181	Mauritius	40	1	0
182	Samoa	38	1	0
183	Cayman Islands	36	1	0
184	Cook Islands	34	1	0
184	Djibouti	34	1	0
184	Guam	34	1	0
187	St. Lucia	32	1	0
188	Macau	31	1	0
189	Tonga	28	2	0
190	Dominican Republic	26	-9	-15
191	British Virgin Islands	25	1	0
191	Brunei Darussalam	25	1	0
193	Guinea-Bissau	20	-3	-9
194	Afghanistan	19	-2	-6
194	Tahiti	19	1	0
196	Bhutan	17	0	0
197	Dominica	12	0	0
198	Aruba	11	0	0
199	US Virgin Islands	8	0	0
200	Central African Republic	4	0	0
200	Timor-Leste	4	0	0
202	Andorra	3	0	0
203	American Samoa	0	0	0
203	Anguilla	0	0	0
203	Montserrat	0	0	0
203	Papua New Guinea	0	0	0
203	San Marino	0	0	0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: December 2009 preview

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Included: matches up to and including November 22nd, 2009.

Next update: December 10th, 2009.

This month you won't see a probable ranking because it's not worth it. The top 74 teams will not be playing matches.
There are two competitions: CECAFA Cup and SAFF Cup. The CECAFA Cup will feature a non-FIFA team (Zanzibar), while Zimbabwe will field an U-23 side. India will do the same in the SAFF Cup. On top of that, I could find no info regarding the quarterfinals match-ups for CECAFA.

November 2009 rank - Country - November 2009 points - Minimum points - Maximum points

1	Spain	1622	1627	1627
2	Brazil	1592	1568	1568
3	Netherlands	1279	1288	1288
4	Italy	1215	1209	1209
5	Portugal	1181	1176	1176
6	Germany	1170	1173	1173
7	France	1122	1117	1117
8	Argentina	1085	1085	1085
9	England	1063	1076	1076
10	Croatia	1050	1042	1042
11	Cameroon	1035	1035	1035
12	Greece	1028	1016	1016
13	Russia	1019	1026	1026
14	USA	980	980	980
15	Mexico	931	931	931
16	Côte d'Ivoire	927	934	934
17	Chile	926	936	936
18	Switzerland	924	924	924
19	Uruguay	901	909	909
20	Serbia	900	916	916
21	Australia	863	863	863
22	Nigeria	848	848	848
23	Czech Republic	843	828	828
24	Ukraine	842	848	848
25	Israel	837	823	823
26	Denmark	835	820	820
27	Bulgaria	827	801	801
28	Algeria	823	823	823
29	Egypt	820	833	833
30	Paraguay	816	806	806
31	Norway	780	760	760
32	Romania	763	745	745
33	Slovenia	756	767	767
34	Slovakia	755	751	751
35	Ecuador	750	738	738
36	Republic of Ireland	746	746	746
37	Ghana	739	747	747
38	Honduras	738	738	738
39	Northern Ireland	737	730	730
40	Colombia	736	736	736
41	Turkey	729	728	728
42	Sweden	727	721	721
43	Japan	709	709	709
44	Costa Rica	694	701	701
45	Latvia	670	677	677
46	Scotland	665	665	665
47	Mali	662	662	662
48	Gabon	660	660	660
49	Burkina Faso	650	650	650
50	Venezuela	646	646	646
51	Bosnia-Herzegovina	643	642	642
52	Korea Republic	625	625	625
53	Tunisia	613	614	614
54	Finland	605	592	592
55	Hungary	603	613	613
56	Poland	575	556	556
57	Bolivia	573	573	573
57	Canada	573	573	573
59	Benin	534	532	532
60	Lithuania	525	521	521
61	Bahrain	524	524	524
62	Austria	520	523	523
63	Iran	518	507	507
64	Belgium	504	492	492
65	Saudi Arabia	501	509	509
66	FYR Macedonia	491	495	495
67	Morocco	476	477	477
68	Cyprus	472	471	471
69	Panama	468	469	469
70	Peru	467	471	471
70	Togo	467	467	467
72	Mozambique	462	462	462
73	Montenegro	456	456	456
74	Jamaica	451	404	404
75	Guinea	450	459	459
76	Uzbekistan	437	440	440
77	New Zealand	433	400	400
78	Uganda	428	409	453
79	Wales	427	420	420
80	Belarus	426	406	406
81	Trinidad and Tobago	421	400	400
82	El Salvador	407	412	412
83	Oman	403	410	410
84	Korea DPR	399	377	377
85	Haiti	384	349	349
86	South Africa	377	377	377
87	Qatar	374	376	376
88	Iraq	364	364	364
89	Senegal	362	361	361
90	Zambia	358	351	380
91	Syria	348	346	346
92	Iceland	346	346	346
93	Moldova	338	338	338
94	Angola	337	337	337
94	Malawi	337	326	326
96	Cuba	331	218	218
97	China PR	328	340	340
98	Albania	327	336	336
99	Armenia	323	321	321
100	Congo	320	320	320
101	Cape Verde Islands	316	331	331
102	Estonia	303	308	308
103	Grenada	298	144	144
103	Kuwait	298	301	301
105	Kenya	292	316	345
106	Tanzania	291	280	316
107	Thailand	289	296	296
108	Zimbabwe	265	265	265
109	Congo DR	261	271	271
110	Rwanda	255	277	296
111	Singapore	247	260	260
111	Sudan	247	268	268
111	United Arab Emirates	247	248	248
114	Namibia	246	246	246
115	Barbados	238	181	181
116	Azerbaijan	237	237	237
117	Guyana	232	191	191
118	Libya	228	232	232
119	Kazakhstan	226	200	200
120	Faroe Islands	220	222	222
121	Botswana	219	219	219
122	Gambia	218	224	224
123	Antigua and Barbuda	216	176	176
124	Burundi	214	195	264
125	Georgia	203	202	202
125	Guatemala	203	205	205
127	Indonesia	198	206	206
128	Jordan	185	256	256
128	Luxembourg	185	185	185
130	Vietnam	184	203	203
131	Ethiopia	182	179	309
132	Yemen	177	176	176
133	Fiji	174	167	167
134	Nicaragua	165	165	165
135	Equatorial Guinea	163	152	152
135	India	163	158	158
135	Myanmar	163	142	142
138	Swaziland	152	152	152
139	New Caledonia	147	126	126
140	Turkmenistan	139	139	139
141	Hong Kong	137	137	137
141	Sierra Leone	137	145	145
143	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	136	112	112
144	Bermuda	133	138	138
144	Suriname	133	133	133
146	Maldives	132	102	157
147	Chad	130	130	130
147	Lebanon	130	126	126
149	Malta	128	128	128
150	Lesotho	120	120	120
151	Eritrea	115	66	137
152	Liechtenstein	110	110	110
152	Malaysia	110	97	112
154	Sri Lanka	108	97	132
155	Madagascar	105	105	105
156	Kyrgyzstan	103	103	103
157	Vanuatu	101	108	108
158	Liberia	98	98	98
159	St. Kitts and Nevis	94	107	107
160	Chinese Taipei	93	93	93
161	Pakistan	88	78	142
162	Puerto Rico	87	87	87
162	Tajikistan	87	86	86
164	Niger	86	92	92
165	Bangladesh	83	72	136
165	Philippines	83	83	83
167	Somalia	82	64	124
168	Netherlands Antilles	80	80	80
169	Mauritania	70	70	70
170	Mongolia	61	61	61
171	Solomon Islands	60	60	60
172	Cambodia	59	56	56
173	Belize	57	57	57
174	Laos	55	44	44
175	Palestine	54	57	57
176	Nepal	53	52	105
177	Bahamas	47	42	42
178	Comoros	46	46	46
179	Turks and Caicos Islands	45	45	45
180	Seychelles	44	44	44
181	Dominican Republic	41	26	26
182	Mauritius	40	40	40
183	Samoa	38	38	38
184	Cayman Islands	36	36	36
185	Cook Islands	34	34	34
185	Djibouti	34	27	115
185	Guam	34	34	34
188	St. Lucia	32	32	32
189	Macau	31	31	31
190	Guinea-Bissau	29	20	20
191	Tonga	28	28	28
192	Afghanistan	25	19	72
192	British Virgin Islands	25	25	25
192	Brunei Darussalam	25	25	25
195	Tahiti	19	19	19
196	Bhutan	17	17	81
197	Dominica	12	12	12
198	Aruba	11	11	11
199	US Virgin Islands	8	8	8
200	Central African Republic	4	4	4
200	Timor-Leste	4	4	4
202	Andorra	3	3	3
203	American Samoa	0	0	0
203	Anguilla	0	0	0
203	Montserrat	0	0	0
203	Papua New Guinea	0	0	0
203	San Marino	0	0	0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.