Assumptions:
- UEFA will again have 13 spots
- UEFA will again use the system with 9 groups
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- FIFA will hold the draw in November 2011
The November 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between November 2007 and November 2011. We already have the "0.2" part (matches played between November 2007 and November 2008) - that's basically 10% of the final ranking and a bit of the "0.3" part (matches played between November 2008 and November 2009). A lot can and will change before November 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving European teams: 2010 FIFA World Cup playoffs, 2010 FIFA World Cup, EURO 2012 qualifiers and plenty of friendlies.
UEFA will only use the national team coefficient for the European Championships draws (qualifying and final tournament).
This is the November 2011 ranking (for UEFA only) using matches played up to and including November 15th, 2009 and matches scheduled up to November 2009 (only those on fifa.com).
The "0.3" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).
France replace Switzerland in the 1st pot.
Austria replace Northern Ireland in the 3rd pot.
Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points
1 1 Spain 442
2 2 Netherlands 336
3 7 Russia 284
4 4 Germany 274
5 3 Croatia 267
6 6 Italy 262
7 5 England 255
8 9 Portugal 251
9 12 France 248
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10 8 Switzerland 242
11 10 Ukraine 231
12 13 Serbia 226
13 10 Denmark 221
14 14 Greece 218
15 15 Israel 217
16 16 Bulgaria 207
17 17 Slovakia 196
18 18 Czech Republic 194
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19 21 Turkey 193
20 19 Republic of Ireland 188
21 19 Latvia 182
22 23 Sweden 181
23 22 Slovenia 177
24 25 Norway 171
25 26 Romania 168
26 24 Bosnia-Herzegovina 166
27 29 Austria 149
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28 28 Hungary 148
28 27 Northern Ireland 148
30 30 Montenegro 142
31 31 Lithuania 140
32 33 Finland 132
33 32 Scotland 124
34 34 Poland 123
35 35 Belarus 117
36 36 Belgium 116
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37 37 FYR Macedonia 111
38 39 Wales 105
39 38 Cyprus 97
40 40 Estonia 85
41 42 Albania 83
42 40 Iceland 81
43 43 Armenia 72
44 44 Faroe Islands 68
45 45 Luxembourg 58
-----------------------------
46 46 Moldova 55
47 47 Kazakhstan 51
48 48 Azerbaijan 43
49 49 Georgia 35
50 50 Malta 27
51 51 Liechtenstein 15
52 52 Andorra 0
52 52 San Marino 0
Do I understand correctly that now made ranking includes 2 of 4 years that will be taken in consideration?
ReplyDeleteIs taken: 2008 and 2009
Is not taken: 2010 and 2011
Latvia above Sweden!!!
Yes, according to my calculations, November 18th will be the cutoff date, so we already have 25% of the final November 2011 points.
ReplyDeleteLatvia above Sweden, yes, but only by 1 point. :)
--> Edgar
ReplyDeleteWhy only 25% if 2 of 4 years (2008, 2009, 2010, 2011) have passed? Maybe it is because later years (2010, 2011) have more importance in ranking at November 2011?
Arthur
Yes, Arthur.
ReplyDeleteIt's 20%, 30%, 50%, 100%. Adding them up - 200%. So the first two parts 50% of 200% are actually 25% of 100%.
Hey, Quick Question regarding the seeding coefficients for 2014.
ReplyDeletePoland and Ukraine can only use Euro 08 and World cup 2010 matches to gather points... they will not play Qualifying match for 2012.
So is there coefficients already known?
Using Euro 08 as 33% weighted and 2010 as 66% there cofficients will be 23805.67 for Poland and 28,029.42 for Ukraine.
The UEFA coefficients for Poland and Ukraine are indeed already known - with the values you mentioned.
ReplyDeleteHowever, it's not 100% sure UEFA will use their coefficient to seed the teams for the 2014 WCQ draw. FIFA might go again with the FIFA rankings.