African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers (24 January 2010)

These are the groups (in 2006 there was no actual draw - see the seeding and draw procedure used in 2006) based on matches up to and including January 21st.

There are plenty of questions though.

Because I've seen some people didn't understand the system CAF used in 2006 for the 2008 ACN preliminaries, I'll try to give more details in this post.

Here's the ranking after January 24th.

The seeding formula is the sum of:

• 2010 WCQ points
• bonus for qualifying for the 2010 WC (6 points)
  
• 2010 ACN group stage points
• 2010 ACN performance bonus (12 for the winner, 9 for the finalist, 6 for the SF, 3 for the QF)

The rest of the teams will be ranked using the January 2010 FIFA ranking (to be published by FIFA on February 3rd).

Order of columns:

1 - Rank in the 2012 ACN seeding
2 - Team
3 - January 2010 CAF ranking (i.e. FIFA ranking within CAF)
4 - Points in the last group stage of the 2010 FIFA World Cup qualifiers
5 - Bonus points for FIFA World Cup qualification (6 points)
6 - Angola 2010 group stage points
7 - Angola 2010 bonus points (12 for the winner, 9 for the finalist, 6 for the SF, 3 for the QF)

If teams are tied, these are the tie-breaking criteria:

1 - Angola 2010 bonus points
2 - Angola 2010 group stage points
3 - 2010 World Cup bonus points
4 - 2010 World Cup points in the last group stage
5 - January 2010 FIFA Ranking

The first seed (ranked 1st) will be group with the lowest ranked seed from each of the other three pots. This means Group 1 will feature teams ranked 1st, 26th, 39th and 51st, Group 2 will feature teams ranked 2nd, 25th, 38th and 50th and so on, with Group 13 featuring only 3 teams ranked 13th, 14th and 27th.

 1 Algeria                   5 13 6 4 6 29
 2 Côte d'Ivoire             4 16 6 4 3 29
 3 Ghana                     6 13 6 3 6 28
 4 Nigeria                   3 12 6 6 3 27
 5 Cameroon                  2 13 6 4 3 26
 6 Egypt                     1 13 0 9 3 25
 7 Tunisia                  10 11 0 3   14
 8 Mali                      9  9 0 4   13
 9 Burkina Faso              8 12 0 1   13
10 Zambia                   15  5 0 4 3 12
11 Benin                    12 10 0 1   11
12 Angola                   19  0 0 5 3  8
13 Mozambique               17  7 0 1    8
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14 Togo                     13  8 0 0    8
15 Malawi                   16  4 0 3    7
16 Morocco                  11  3 0      3
17 Guinea                   20  3 0      3
18 Kenya                    30  3 0      3
19 Rwanda                   25  2 0      2
20 Sudan                    27  1 0      1
21 Uganda                   14
22 South Africa             18
23 Senegal                  21
24 Gambia                   22
25 Cape Verde Islands       23
26 Congo                    24
------------------------------------------
27 Tanzania                 26
28 Namibia                  28
29 Congo DR                 29
30 Libya                    31
31 Zimbabwe                 32
32 Botswana                 33
33 Ethiopia                 34
34 Sierra Leone             35
35 Swaziland                36
36 Chad                     38
37 Burundi                  39
38 Lesotho                  40
39 Madagascar               41
------------------------------------------
40 Liberia                  42
41 Mauritania               43
42 Niger                    44
43 Eritrea                  45
44 Comoros                  46
45 Seychelles               47
46 Mauritius                48
47 Somalia                  49
48 Djibouti                 50
49 Guinea-Bissau            51
50 Central African Republic 52
51 Sao Tome e Principe      53

Zambia can't reach the top 6. Even if they win the whole thing, they will have only 21 points. If they knock-out Nigeria, they'll climb to 7th. The last three teams in the first pot are also set in stone.
There's also a South Africa - Zimbabwe friendly on January 27th. This result won't affect South Africa's position in the seeding list as they can't overtake Uganda and they can't fall behind Senegal. Zimbabwe on the other hand can overtake Libya with a draw and they could further pass by Congo DR and Namibia with a win.

If CAF use the same system as 4 years ago and no team withdraws from the qualifiers, one group is already set - Group 13: Mozambique, Togo, Tanzania.

We also have some fixed match-ups:

Benin - Morocco
Angola - Malawi
Congo - Madagascar
Cape Verde Islands - Lesotho
Gambia - Burundi
Senegal - Chad
South Africa - Swaziland
Uganda - Sierra Leone
Sudan - Ethiopia
Rwanda - Botswana

These are the groups based on the system used 4 years ago and results up to and including January 24th:

Group 1: Algeria, Congo, Madagascar, Sao Tome e Principe
Group 2: Côte d'Ivoire, Cape Verde Islands, Lesotho, Central African Republic
Group 3: Ghana, Gambia, Burundi, Guinea-Bissau
Group 4: Nigeria, Senegal, Chad, Djibouti
Group 5: Cameroon, South Africa, Swaziland, Somalia
Group 6: Egypt, Uganda, Sierra Leone, Mauritius
Group 7: Tunisia, Sudan, Ethiopia, Seychelles
Group 8: Mali, Rwanda, Botswana, Comoros
Group 9: Burkina Faso, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Eritrea
Group 10: Zambia, Guinea, Libya, Niger
Group 11: Benin, Morocco, Congo DR, Mauritania
Group 12: Angola, Malawi, Namibia, Liberia
Group 13: Mozambique, Togo, Tanzania

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Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.