African Cup of Nations: Seeding for Gabon/Equatorial Guinea 2012 qualifiers (1 February 2010)

Detailed explanation of the seeding method.

There are 43 countries that have confirmed their participation. Eritrea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mauritania, Sao Tome e Principe, The Seychelles and Sudan can still do so, while Togo are banned for the next two editions.

The draw will take place during the final of the CAF Super Cup - on February 20th.

On Saturday I received an e-mail from a CAF official with a list of countries that hadn't yet confirmed their participation. Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mauritania and Sudan were not on that list, while Somalia, Djibouti and Cape Verde Islands were on the list, but they probably confirmed their participation.

With 43 members and 14 available spots, the most likely qualifying setup is one with 10 groups of 4 teams and one of 3 teams.

Here are the groups:

Group 1: Egypt, Gambia, Swaziland, Central African Republic
Group 2: Ghana, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Djibouti
Group 3: Nigeria, South Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia
Group 4: Algeria, Uganda, Botswana, Mauritius
Group 5: Côte d'Ivoire, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Comoros
Group 6: Cameroon, Kenya, Libya, Niger
Group 7: Tunisia, Guinea, Congo DR, Liberia
Group 8: Mali, Morocco, Namibia, Madagascar
Group 9: Burkina Faso, Malawi, Tanzania, Burundi
Group 10: Zambia, Mozambique, Congo, Chad
Group 11: Benin, Angola, Cape Verde Islands

Group winners and the best three runners-up from groups 1 - 10 qualify for the final tournament.

Since CAF banned Togo for government interference, there's the possibility of CAF awarding 3 points to Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana and Burkina Faso. In this case, the groups would look like this:

Group 1: Egypt, Gambia, Swaziland, Central African Republic
Group 2: Ghana, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Djibouti
Group 3: Côte d'Ivoire, South Africa, Ethiopia, Somalia
Group 4: Nigeria, Uganda, Botswana, Mauritius
Group 5: Algeria, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Comoros
Group 6: Cameroon, Kenya, Libya, Niger
Group 7: Burkina Faso, Guinea, Congo DR, Liberia
Group 8: Tunisia, Morocco, Namibia, Madagascar
Group 9: Mali, Malawi, Tanzania, Burundi
Group 10: Zambia, Mozambique, Congo, Chad
Group 11: Benin, Angola, Cape Verde Islands

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Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.