Assumptions:
- CAF will again have 5 spots
- CAF will keep the current qualifying system
- FIFA will use the FIFA ranking to seed the teams
- CAF will choose the July 2011 ranking for seeding
The July 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between July 2007 and July 2011. We already have the "0.2" part (matches played between July 2007 and July 2008) and the "0.3" part (matches played between July 2008 and July 2009) - that's 25% of the formula. A lot can and will change before July 2011 as there are many matches to be played involving African teams: 2010 FIFA World Cup, CAN 2012 qualifiers and plenty of friendlies.
This is the July 2011 ranking (for CAF only) using matches played up to and including March 21st, 2010 and matches scheduled up to July 2010 (only those on fifa.com).
The "0.5" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).
Malawi replace Mozambique in the first pot.
Gambia replace Zimbabwe in the second pot.
Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points
1 2 Egypt 542
2 5 Gabon 409
3 7 Nigeria 389
4 1 Cameroon 361
5 3 Côte dIvoire 359
5 4 Algeria 359
7 6 Burkina Faso 338
8 9 Ghana 336
9 8 Mali 266
10 11 Tunisia 264
11 10 Benin 257
12 14 Malawi 235
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13 13 Togo 234
14 24 Uganda 232
15 19 Zambia 228
16 12 Mozambique 176
17 23 Angola 171
18 15 Morocco 170
19 21 Libya 166
20 22 Senegal 159
21 28 Gambia 147
22 16 Guinea 144
23 19 South Africa 141
24 18 Congo 135
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25 16 Zimbabwe 131
26 26 Rwanda 126
27 25 Kenya 120
28 27 Tanzania 110
29 29 Sudan 100
30 32 Namibia 97
30 33 Botswana 97
32 30 Cape Verde Islands 96
33 31 Congo DR 88
34 34 Swaziland 76
35 35 Sierra Leone 74
36 36 Madagascar 73
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37 37 Chad 67
38 38 Burundi 52
39 39 Equatorial Guinea 51
40 40 Lesotho 47
40 40 Niger 47
42 43 Ethiopia 42
43 42 Liberia 39
44 47 Eritrea 29
45 44 Somalia 23
45 44 Mauritania 23
47 46 Comoros 19
48 48 Mauritius 15
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49 49 Guinea-Bissau 12
49 49 Djibouti 12
51 51 Seychelles 11
52 52 Central African Republic 0
52 52 Sao Tome e Principe 0
Nice work. I can't wait for 2014 World Cup qualifying. Too far away...
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