The reason behind Portugal's best ever ranking

Why are Portugal 3rd? I've been asked this question a couple of times, so here's a quick post to answer.

There's one reason: Antonio Leonel Vilar Nogueira de Sousa, also known as Tonel. Portugal climbed to 3rd in the FIFA rankings (their best ever ranking) in the 63rd minute of their friendly against China PR, played on March 3rd in Coimbra (read the match report).

When Carlos Queiroz replaced Bruno Alves with Tonel, the match lost its A match status and it wasn't included in the FIFA ranking calculations, as I mentioned in one of the March 2010 FIFA ranking previews. Why? Because teams are allowed a maximum of 6 substitutions in a friendly match (see FIFA's circular no. 1150) - and Tonel was the 7th. Of course, the Chinese made the 6th and 7th substitions nine minutes later, so the match would have lost its A match status anyway.

Of Portugal's 1249 points (1248.844 to be more precise), 735.788 (6622 from 9 matches) are from the last 12 months. With the China match included (324.675 points), Portugal would have had 6946.675 points from 10 matches - for an average of 694.6675 points, thus losing 41 points. That would still be good enough for 4th place in the April ranking.

Portugal's 5 most valuable results are the Bosnia-Herzegovina wins in the WC play-off (2 x 131.67), the Hungary wins (2 x 127.50) and the Albania win (90).

You also have to take into account the fact that Portugal got two extremely valuable wins against Bosnia-Herzegovina (ranked 42nd at the time), while the other top 10 teams (France excepted) played friendlies, bringing their average down. Same story on March 3rd - Portugal "didn't play", while the other teams again played friendlies bringing their average down.

One final answer to this comment:

"While Portugal hasn't lost since Sept. 2008, they really haven't beaten any one either. The highest rated opponent they beat are currently ranked 49th. Does strength of schedule factor into this ranking at all? Or can a team make it all the way to the top by bulking up on a steady diet of minnows?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina were 42nd at the time of their matches against Portugal. Yes, it's about averages. Check the detailed totals section. No, you can't make your way to the top by defeating minnows in friendly games. Actually, for teams in the top 20 is usually better to avoid playing friendlies.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: May 2010 probable ranking

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Next update: May 14th, 2010.

Probable May 2010 rank - Team - Probable May 2010 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Brazil	1611	0	0
2	Spain	1565	0	0
3	Portugal	1249	0	0
4	Netherlands	1231	0	10
5	Italy	1184	0	0
6	Germany	1082	0	-25
7	Argentina	1076	0	-8
8	England	1068	0	0
9	Croatia	1051	0	-1
10	France	1044	0	0
11	Russia	1015	0	12
12	Egypt	967	1	0
13	Greece	964	-1	-4
14	USA	957	0	7
15	Serbia	947	1	3
16	Mexico	908	1	-28
17	Uruguay	899	1	-3
18	Chile	888	-3	-60
19	Cameroon	887	0	0
20	Australia	886	0	3
21	Nigeria	883	-1	0
22	Norway	882	0	3
23	Ukraine	875	2	20
24	Switzerland	866	2	12
25	Slovenia	860	-2	0
26	Israel	857	-2	0
27	Romania	853	1	10
28	Côte d'Ivoire	846	-1	0
29	Czech Republic	827	0	0
30	Algeria	821	1	0
31	Paraguay	820	-1	-2
32	Turkey	812	1	14
33	Ghana	800	-1	-2
34	Slovakia	777	4	35
35	Colombia	776	-1	-1
36	Denmark	767	-1	0
37	Sweden	761	0	4
38	Honduras	734	2	7
39	Bulgaria	726	0	-14
40	Costa Rica	710	2	4
41	Republic of Ireland	709	2	19
42	Scotland	699	2	15
43	Japan	682	2	8
44	Gabon	680	-3	-27
45	Ecuador	678	-9	-85
46	Latvia	652	0	0
47	Korea Republic	632	0	13
48	Venezuela	621	1	16
49	Finland	613	0	8
50	Burkina Faso	611	2	22
51	Lithuania	608	-3	-8
52	Bosnia-Herzegovina	604	-1	0
53	Peru	578	0	-1
54	Mali	575	0	0
55	Tunisia	574	0	0
56	Northern Ireland	566	1	11
57	Hungary	565	-1	-2
58	Poland	561	0	9
59	Benin	531	0	0
60	FYR Macedonia	521	0	0
60	Iran	521	0	0
62	Canada	516	1	0
63	Belgium	507	-1	-11
64	Montenegro	500	1	0
65	Bolivia	499	2	8
66	Saudi Arabia	495	0	0
67	Cyprus	486	1	-2
68	Austria	479	-4	-30
69	Bahrain	475	0	0
70	Morocco	463	0	-6
71	Zambia	456	0	4
72	El Salvador	452	-1	0
73	Uganda	440	1	3
74	Wales	436	1	7
75	Panama	434	1	13
76	Togo	433	-3	-5
77	Senegal	422	0	8
78	New Zealand	410	0	-3
79	Jamaica	407	0	-5
80	Albania	406	0	0
81	Iraq	405	1	11
82	Belarus	397	-1	0
82	Malawi	397	0	3
84	China PR	387	1	-3
85	Mozambique	383	4	5
86	Guinea	381	1	0
87	Angola	379	-2	-11
88	Moldova	378	-4	-14
89	South Africa	376	1	7
90	Iceland	367	1	0
91	Haiti	362	-4	-19
92	Gambia	361	1	0
93	Uzbekistan	354	1	0
94	Oman	353	3	7
94	Trinidad and Tobago	353	-3	-14
96	Qatar	351	-1	0
97	Kuwait	350	-1	2
98	Syria	343	0	1
99	Armenia	311	0	0
100	United Arab Emirates	310	0	0
101	Libya	309	1	4
102	Congo	308	-1	0
103	Jordan	300	0	-1
104	Estonia	296	0	0
105	Thailand	290	0	-4
106	Korea DPR	285	0	-7
107	Rwanda	269	0	0
108	Tanzania	261	0	2
109	Azerbaijan	259	1	2
110	Zimbabwe	258	3	10
111	Yemen	252	-2	-6
112	Namibia	251	0	0
113	Kenya	243	1	0
114	Cape Verde Islands	241	3	5
114	Guatemala	241	1	0
116	Botswana	235	0	-2
117	Vietnam	231	1	0
118	Sudan	220	3	9
119	Antigua and Barbuda	218	0	1
120	Georgia	217	-1	0
121	Congo DR	215	-10	-38
122	Guyana	205	0	0
123	Ethiopia	200	0	-4
124	Grenada	198	0	0
125	Faroe Islands	196	0	0
126	Cuba	194	-1	-2
127	Luxembourg	193	0	0
127	Singapore	193	0	0
129	Kazakhstan	182	0	2
130	Sierra Leone	181	3	19
131	Swaziland	171	0	6
132	Fiji	167	-2	0
133	India	163	-1	-1
134	Bermuda	160	0	0
135	Barbados	155	0	-2
135	Tajikistan	155	0	-2
137	Indonesia	153	0	0
137	Suriname	153	3	6
139	Hong Kong	150	0	0
139	Turkmenistan	150	-2	-3
141	Equatorial Guinea	142	0	0
142	Maldives	129	1	0
143	Chad	128	1	0
144	Burundi	127	1	0
145	New Caledonia	126	1	0
146	Malaysia	123	1	0
147	Myanmar	122	-5	-19
148	Madagascar	121	1	6
149	Liechtenstein	117	-1	0
150	Liberia	114	2	2
151	St. Kitts and Nevis	113	0	0
152	Lesotho	109	-3	-6
153	Vanuatu	108	0	0
154	Netherlands Antilles	103	3	5
155	Eritrea	101	4	6
155	Nicaragua	101	0	0
157	Bangladesh	100	3	6
157	Malta	100	-3	-3
159	Sri Lanka	99	-3	0
160	Lebanon	98	-3	0
161	Nepal	96	0	4
162	Niger	92	-1	0
163	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	91	1	0
164	Mauritania	81	1	0
165	Pakistan	78	1	0
166	Puerto Rico	76	2	0
167	Chinese Taipei	75	-1	-3
168	Kyrgyzstan	74	-7	-18
169	Philippines	67	1	12
170	Solomon Islands	60	-1	0
171	Comoros	43	1	0
172	Mauritius	40	1	0
173	Cayman Islands	39	1	0
173	Laos	39	1	0
173	Palestine	39	1	0
173	Somalia	39	1	0
177	Samoa	38	2	0
178	Seychelles	37	-4	-2
179	Belize	36	2	2
179	Mongolia	36	1	0
181	Bahamas	34	0	0
181	Cook Islands	34	0	0
183	Dominica	33	1	0
184	Turks and Caicos Islands	32	1	0
185	Cambodia	30	-14	-24
186	Tonga	28	0	0
187	Dominican Republic	26	0	0
188	Djibouti	23	0	0
189	Afghanistan	21	4	4
189	Brunei Darussalam	21	4	4
191	Guinea-Bissau	19	-2	0
191	St. Lucia	19	-2	0
191	Tahiti	19	-2	0
194	British Virgin Islands	18	-2	0
195	Guam	17	-2	0
196	Bhutan	15	1	4
197	Macau	13	-1	-2
198	Aruba	11	-1	0
199	US Virgin Islands	5	0	0
200	Timor-Leste	4	0	0
201	Andorra	2	0	0
202	American Samoa	0	0	0
202	Anguilla	0	0	0
202	Central African Republic	0	0	0
202	Montserrat	0	0	0
202	Papua New Guinea	0	0	0
202	San Marino	0	0	0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: May 2010 probable results

Here are the probable results used for the May 2010 probable ranking. They are generated using the Elo Ratings.

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

28/Apr South Africa - Jamaica X (Friendly)
05/May Argentina - Haiti 1 (Friendly)
05/May Chile - Trinidad and Tobago 1 (Friendly)
07/May Mexico - Ecuador 1 (Friendly)
10/May Mexico - Senegal 1 (Friendly)
13/May Germany - Malta 1 (Friendly)
13/May Mexico - Angola 1 (Friendly)
15/May Paraguay - Korea DPR 1 (Friendly)
16/May Mexico - Chile 1 (Friendly)
16/May Korea Republic - Ecuador 1 (Friendly)
19/May Belgium - Bulgaria X (Friendly)
19/May Gabon - Togo X (Friendly)
19/May Austria - Croatia 2 (Friendly)

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: May 2010 preview

Point totals for teams from the top 20 of the October 2007 ranking should be 100% correct. For the others, there's the issue of historical rankings published before July 2006.

Included: matches up to and including April 22nd, 2010.

Next update: May 14th, 2010.

April 2010 rank - Country - April 2010 points - Minimum points - Maximum points

1	Brazil	1611	1611	1611
2	Spain	1565	1565	1565
3	Portugal	1249	1249	1249
4	Netherlands	1221	1231	1231
5	Italy	1184	1184	1184
6	Germany	1107	1067	1082
7	Argentina	1084	1053	1076
8	England	1068	1068	1068
9	Croatia	1052	1000	1051
10	France	1044	1044	1044
11	Russia	1003	1015	1015
12	Greece	968	964	964
13	Egypt	967	967	967
14	USA	950	957	957
15	Chile	948	866	923
16	Serbia	944	947	947
17	Mexico	936	840	908
18	Uruguay	902	899	899
19	Cameroon	887	887	887
20	Australia	883	886	886
20	Nigeria	883	883	883
22	Norway	879	882	882
23	Slovenia	860	860	860
24	Israel	857	857	857
25	Ukraine	855	875	875
26	Switzerland	854	866	866
27	Côte d'Ivoire	846	846	846
28	Romania	843	853	853
29	Czech Republic	827	827	827
30	Paraguay	822	796	820
31	Algeria	821	821	821
32	Ghana	802	800	800
33	Turkey	798	812	812
34	Colombia	777	776	776
35	Denmark	767	767	767
36	Ecuador	763	678	770
37	Sweden	757	761	761
38	Slovakia	742	777	777
39	Bulgaria	740	711	757
40	Honduras	727	734	734
41	Gabon	707	670	700
42	Costa Rica	706	710	710
43	Republic of Ireland	690	709	709
44	Scotland	684	699	699
45	Japan	674	682	682
46	Latvia	652	652	652
47	Korea Republic	619	604	632
48	Lithuania	616	608	608
49	Finland	605	613	613
49	Venezuela	605	621	621
51	Bosnia-Herzegovina	604	604	604
52	Burkina Faso	589	611	611
53	Peru	579	578	578
54	Mali	575	575	575
55	Tunisia	574	574	574
56	Hungary	567	565	565
57	Northern Ireland	555	566	566
58	Poland	552	561	561
59	Benin	531	531	531
60	FYR Macedonia	521	521	521
60	Iran	521	521	521
62	Belgium	518	491	539
63	Canada	516	516	516
64	Austria	509	479	543
65	Montenegro	500	500	500
66	Saudi Arabia	495	495	495
67	Bolivia	491	499	499
68	Cyprus	488	486	486
69	Bahrain	475	475	475
70	Morocco	469	463	463
71	El Salvador	452	452	452
71	Zambia	452	456	456
73	Togo	438	418	463
74	Uganda	437	440	440
75	Wales	429	436	436
76	Panama	421	434	434
77	Senegal	414	422	515
78	New Zealand	413	410	410
79	Jamaica	412	399	423
80	Albania	406	406	406
81	Belarus	397	397	397
82	Iraq	394	405	405
82	Malawi	394	397	397
84	Moldova	392	378	378
85	Angola	390	379	411
85	China PR	390	387	387
87	Guinea	381	381	381
87	Haiti	381	362	438
89	Mozambique	378	383	383
90	South Africa	369	371	387
91	Iceland	367	367	367
91	Trinidad and Tobago	367	353	410
93	Gambia	361	361	361
94	Uzbekistan	354	354	354
95	Qatar	351	351	351
96	Kuwait	348	350	350
97	Oman	346	353	353
98	Syria	342	343	343
99	Armenia	311	311	311
100	United Arab Emirates	310	310	310
101	Congo	308	308	308
102	Libya	305	309	309
103	Jordan	301	300	300
104	Estonia	296	296	296
105	Thailand	294	290	290
106	Korea DPR	292	285	311
107	Rwanda	269	269	269
108	Tanzania	259	261	261
109	Yemen	258	252	252
110	Azerbaijan	257	259	259
111	Congo DR	253	215	215
112	Namibia	251	251	251
113	Zimbabwe	248	258	258
114	Kenya	243	243	243
115	Guatemala	241	241	241
116	Botswana	237	235	235
117	Cape Verde Islands	236	241	241
118	Vietnam	231	231	231
119	Antigua and Barbuda	217	218	218
119	Georgia	217	217	217
121	Sudan	211	220	220
122	Guyana	205	205	205
123	Ethiopia	204	200	200
124	Grenada	198	198	198
125	Cuba	196	194	194
125	Faroe Islands	196	196	196
127	Luxembourg	193	193	193
127	Singapore	193	193	193
129	Kazakhstan	180	182	182
130	Fiji	167	167	167
131	Swaziland	165	171	171
132	India	164	163	163
133	Sierra Leone	162	181	181
134	Bermuda	160	160	160
135	Barbados	157	155	155
135	Tajikistan	157	155	155
137	Indonesia	153	153	153
137	Turkmenistan	153	150	150
139	Hong Kong	150	150	150
140	Suriname	147	153	153
141	Equatorial Guinea	142	142	142
142	Myanmar	141	122	122
143	Maldives	129	129	129
144	Chad	128	128	128
145	Burundi	127	127	127
146	New Caledonia	126	126	126
147	Malaysia	123	123	123
148	Liechtenstein	117	117	117
149	Lesotho	115	109	109
149	Madagascar	115	121	121
151	St. Kitts and Nevis	113	113	113
152	Liberia	112	114	114
153	Vanuatu	108	108	108
154	Malta	103	100	158
155	Nicaragua	101	101	101
156	Sri Lanka	99	99	99
157	Lebanon	98	98	98
157	Netherlands Antilles	98	103	103
159	Eritrea	95	101	101
160	Bangladesh	94	100	100
161	Kyrgyzstan	92	74	74
161	Nepal	92	96	96
161	Niger	92	92	92
164	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	91	91	91
165	Mauritania	81	81	81
166	Chinese Taipei	78	75	75
166	Pakistan	78	78	78
168	Puerto Rico	76	76	76
169	Solomon Islands	60	60	60
170	Philippines	55	67	67
171	Cambodia	54	30	30
172	Comoros	43	43	43
173	Mauritius	40	40	40
174	Cayman Islands	39	39	39
174	Laos	39	39	39
174	Palestine	39	39	39
174	Seychelles	39	37	37
174	Somalia	39	39	39
179	Samoa	38	38	38
180	Mongolia	36	36	36
181	Bahamas	34	34	34
181	Belize	34	36	36
181	Cook Islands	34	34	34
184	Dominica	33	33	33
185	Turks and Caicos Islands	32	32	32
186	Tonga	28	28	28
187	Dominican Republic	26	26	26
188	Djibouti	23	23	23
189	Guinea-Bissau	19	19	19
189	St. Lucia	19	19	19
189	Tahiti	19	19	19
192	British Virgin Islands	18	18	18
193	Afghanistan	17	21	21
193	Brunei Darussalam	17	21	21
193	Guam	17	17	17
196	Macau	15	13	13
197	Aruba	11	11	11
197	Bhutan	11	15	15
199	US Virgin Islands	5	5	5
200	Timor-Leste	4	4	4
201	Andorra	2	2	2
202	American Samoa	0	0	0
202	Anguilla	0	0	0
202	Central African Republic	0	0	0
202	Montserrat	0	0	0
202	Papua New Guinea	0	0	0
202	San Marino	0	0	0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.