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Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Confederation weighting: CONMEBOL in front

More on confederation weighting factor calculation.

Before the World Cup, these were the values:

UEFA - 1
CONMEBOL - 0.98
Every other confederation - 0.85

Intermediate 2010 values without the 2010 WC results:

CONMEBOL 1
UEFA 0.98
CONCACAF 0.85 (0.79)
CAF 0.85 (0.79)
AFC 0.85 (0.78)
OFC 0.85 (0.74)

After the first round of matches (Spain - Switzerland won't count):

CONMEBOL 1
UEFA 0.97
AFC 0.85 (0.81)
CAF 0.85 (0.7717)
CONCACAF 0.85 (0.7709)
OFC 0.85 (0.68)

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9 comments:

  1. WatsonJune 16, 2010 at 5:23 PM

    Funny, I was keeping track as well. At one point AFC's multipiler was at .93

    ReplyDelete
  2. WatsonJune 16, 2010 at 5:29 PM

    Question: how are the yearly averages determined? Taking all three years averages then adding them up and dividing by 3, or do they take all the wins from 3 years and divide it by all interconfed's for the three years?

    Also, do your averages include games not already played? I am getting different totals than you are. I have:
    CONMELBOL - 1
    UEFA - .93
    Rest - .85
    I have not put in any other matches though.

    ReplyDelete
  3. jos235June 17, 2010 at 11:02 AM

    I wonder what about Australia. At WC 2006 Australia was already member of AFC (in February they played a match against Bahrain valid for AFC Asian Cup 2007 qualifying). But they have obtained the qualification as an OFC team..

    ReplyDelete
  4. TobcoachJune 17, 2010 at 12:57 PM

    Strange, my calculations are very different. With the games played until yesterday, I have the following numbers:

    CONMEBOL 1 (played: 43, won: 24, avg: 0,56)
    UEFA 0,86 (p: 87, w: 42, avg: 0,48)
    AFC 0,85 (p:33, w:8, a: 0,24)
    CAF 0,85 (p:40, w:8, a: 0,20)
    OFC 0,85 (p:5, w:1, a:0,20)
    CONCACAF 0,85 (p: 26, w:5, a: 0,19)

    With the 0,56 for the CONMEBOL as best average, if you divide 0,48 by 0,56, it's 0,857

    I don't how you can come up with UEFA having a weighting factor of 0,97

    ReplyDelete
  5. EdgarJune 18, 2010 at 8:03 AM

    @Watson

    Yes, I've included all the group stage matches.

    So after the first round of matches:

    CONMEBOL have 23 wins from 52 games, UEFA 42 from 107 and so on.

    @jos235

    I think they were considered an OFC team since they were placed in the same group as Japan.

    @Tobcoach

    Apply the fourth root.

    ReplyDelete
  6. WatsonJune 18, 2010 at 10:21 PM

    After Friday's matches here's what I have:

    Confed name - 3 year avg - con. multi

    CONMELBOL: .600 - 1
    UEFA: .43 - .92
    CONCACAF: .23 - .85
    AFC: .26 - .85
    CAF: .18 - .85
    OFC: .08 - .85

    ReplyDelete
  7. HaakonJune 21, 2010 at 2:11 PM

    I'd like to place a bet on FIFA changing the formula now. Can't see CONMEBOL being that far in front.

    ReplyDelete
  8. EdgarJune 21, 2010 at 2:14 PM

    Actually, UEFA moved up a bit. They're at 0.94, with CONMEBOL obviously still at 1. The others - 0.85.

    ReplyDelete
  9. WatsonJune 21, 2010 at 9:20 PM

    Haakon, I agree. Even if UEFA can get the multipiler to say .96 by the end of the cup, I bet FIFA change the multipiler up a little.

    If UEFA really craps out and fall to .92 or .93 I think we may see a new ranking system all together :-)

    If Spain holds (does not include future games)
    CONMELBOL - 1
    UEFA - .93

    Rest - .85
    CONCACAF is .76

    ReplyDelete