Next update: not before June 16th, 2010.
Probable May 2010 rank - Team - Probable May 2010 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Spain | 1976 | 1 | 411 |
| 2 | Brazil | 1860 | -1 | 156 |
| 3 | England | 1539 | 5 | 478 |
| 4 | Netherlands | 1450 | 0 | 308 |
| 5 | Germany | 1365 | 1 | 283 |
| 6 | Italy | 1349 | -1 | 153 |
| 7 | Argentina | 1305 | 0 | 229 |
| 8 | Egypt | 1198 | 4 | 85 |
| 9 | France | 1085 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Uruguay | 1052 | 6 | 144 |
| 11 | Portugal | 1043 | -8 | -243 |
| 12 | Serbia | 1006 | 3 | 56 |
| 13 | Chile | 991 | 5 | 100 |
| 14 | Croatia | 974 | -4 | -73 |
| 15 | Russia | 956 | -4 | -59 |
| 16 | Mexico | 930 | 1 | 47 |
| 17 | USA | 928 | -3 | -23 |
| 18 | Greece | 917 | -5 | -47 |
| 19 | Norway | 902 | 3 | -4 |
| 20 | Ukraine | 901 | 3 | -5 |
| 21 | Paraguay | 834 | 10 | 29 |
| 22 | Côte d'Ivoire | 829 | 5 | -13 |
| 23 | Nigeria | 827 | -2 | -66 |
| 24 | Slovenia | 826 | 1 | -48 |
| 25 | Turkey | 817 | 4 | -20 |
| 26 | Australia | 779 | -6 | -81 |
| 27 | Cameroon | 769 | -8 | -118 |
| 27 | Czech Republic | 769 | 6 | -24 |
| 29 | Algeria | 755 | 1 | -66 |
| 29 | Gabon | 742 | 13 | 55 |
| 31 | Sweden | 738 | 6 | -14 |
| 32 | Switzerland | 737 | -8 | -124 |
| 33 | Slovakia | 734 | 1 | -38 |
| 34 | Republic of Ireland | 733 | 7 | 25 |
| 35 | Israel | 726 | -9 | -124 |
| 36 | Peru | 725 | 17 | 148 |
| 37 | Colombia | 716 | -2 | -51 |
| 38 | Denmark | 710 | -2 | -44 |
| 39 | Scotland | 704 | 4 | 0 |
| 40 | Romania | 699 | -12 | -156 |
| 41 | Ghana | 683 | -9 | -117 |
| 42 | Bulgaria | 675 | -3 | -39 |
| 43 | Burkina Faso | 672 | 5 | 35 |
| 44 | Honduras | 646 | -6 | -90 |
| 45 | Japan | 642 | 0 | -48 |
| 46 | Venezuela | 613 | 3 | -16 |
| 47 | Korea Republic | 607 | 0 | -41 |
| 48 | Belgium | 589 | 11 | 48 |
| 49 | Costa Rica | 579 | -9 | -126 |
| 50 | Latvia | 571 | -4 | -73 |
| 51 | Finland | 570 | 1 | -8 |
| 52 | Lithuania | 560 | -3 | -37 |
| 53 | Bolivia | 556 | 12 | 71 |
| 54 | Tunisia | 555 | 1 | -10 |
| 55 | Mali | 548 | -1 | -27 |
| 56 | Poland | 546 | 2 | -14 |
| 57 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 545 | -6 | -58 |
| 58 | Ecuador | 540 | -14 | -149 |
| 59 | Northern Ireland | 536 | -3 | -26 |
| 60 | Austria | 535 | 8 | 57 |
| 61 | Benin | 534 | -1 | 4 |
| 62 | Hungary | 525 | -5 | -31 |
| 63 | Cyprus | 523 | 4 | 37 |
| 64 | Iran | 522 | -3 | 1 |
| 65 | FYR Macedonia | 471 | -4 | -17 |
| 66 | Togo | 460 | 10 | 57 |
| 67 | Saudi Arabia | 457 | -1 | -27 |
| 68 | Bahrain | 455 | 1 | -15 |
| 69 | Uganda | 448 | 4 | 17 |
| 70 | Albania | 446 | 9 | 49 |
| 71 | Montenegro | 439 | -7 | -52 |
| 72 | Zambia | 426 | -1 | -10 |
| 73 | New Zealand | 422 | 5 | 13 |
| 74 | Malawi | 405 | 12 | 23 |
| 74 | Trinidad and Tobago | 385 | 21 | 52 |
| 76 | Belarus | 377 | 6 | 6 |
| 77 | China PR | 374 | 7 | 10 |
| 78 | Iceland | 371 | 12 | 18 |
| 79 | Mozambique | 368 | 6 | -6 |
| 80 | Oman | 366 | 11 | 12 |
| 80 | South Africa | 366 | 3 | -18 |
| 82 | Morocco | 365 | -12 | -92 |
| 83 | Jamaica | 362 | -2 | -31 |
| 84 | Wales | 361 | -7 | -49 |
| 85 | Kuwait | 356 | 12 | 15 |
| 86 | Angola | 354 | 2 | -23 |
| 87 | Uzbekistan | 352 | 7 | -2 |
| 88 | United Arab Emirates | 345 | 13 | 41 |
| 89 | Moldova | 344 | 0 | -28 |
| 90 | El Salvador | 343 | -18 | -109 |
| 91 | Senegal | 338 | -16 | -84 |
| 92 | Syria | 334 | 6 | -9 |
| 93 | Panama | 323 | -19 | -111 |
| 94 | Estonia | 318 | 5 | 1 |
| 95 | Armenia | 318 | 5 | 7 |
| 95 | Libya | 305 | 7 | 9 |
| 97 | Jordan | 301 | 7 | 1 |
| 98 | Qatar | 300 | -2 | -51 |
| 99 | Canada | 285 | -36 | -219 |
| 100 | Gambia | 285 | -7 | -76 |
| 100 | Guinea | 283 | -13 | -96 |
| 102 | Korea DPR | 276 | 3 | -1 |
| 103 | Iraq | 274 | -23 | -129 |
| 104 | Thailand | 273 | 2 | -3 |
| 105 | Azerbaijan | 263 | 4 | 8 |
| 106 | Congo | 261 | -3 | -45 |
| 107 | Cape Verde Islands | 254 | 7 | 20 |
| 108 | Yemen | 249 | 4 | 0 |
| 109 | Zimbabwe | 248 | 1 | -20 |
| 110 | Georgia | 237 | 10 | 20 |
| 111 | Tanzania | 235 | -3 | -26 |
| 112 | Rwanda | 234 | -5 | -35 |
| 113 | Cuba | 215 | 13 | 21 |
| 114 | Chad | 215 | 29 | 85 |
| 115 | Kenya | 210 | -2 | -33 |
| 116 | Luxembourg | 209 | 11 | 16 |
| 117 | Faroe Islands | 209 | 8 | 10 |
| 118 | Guatemala | 206 | -4 | -37 |
| 119 | Guyana | 204 | 3 | -2 |
| 119 | Namibia | 203 | -8 | -48 |
| 121 | Botswana | 203 | -5 | -35 |
| 122 | Singapore | 201 | 5 | 5 |
| 122 | Sudan | 198 | -4 | -21 |
| 124 | Suriname | 187 | 13 | 34 |
| 125 | Congo DR | 184 | -4 | -30 |
| 126 | Kazakhstan | 179 | 3 | 1 |
| 127 | Vietnam | 174 | -10 | -52 |
| 128 | Barbados | 168 | 7 | 19 |
| 129 | Antigua and Barbuda | 167 | -10 | -50 |
| 130 | Fiji | 167 | 2 | 0 |
| 130 | Haiti | 160 | -39 | -195 |
| 132 | India | 159 | 1 | -3 |
| 133 | Grenada | 158 | -9 | -39 |
| 134 | Hong Kong | 155 | 6 | 8 |
| 135 | Swaziland | 155 | -4 | -16 |
| 135 | Tajikistan | 150 | 0 | 0 |
| 137 | Turkmenistan | 141 | 2 | -1 |
| 138 | Indonesia | 130 | -1 | -12 |
| 139 | Sierra Leone | 126 | -9 | -51 |
| 140 | Liechtenstein | 125 | 9 | 9 |
| 141 | Burundi | 124 | 3 | -2 |
| 142 | Malaysia | 124 | 4 | 1 |
| 143 | Myanmar | 122 | 4 | 0 |
| 144 | Madagascar | 121 | 4 | 0 |
| 145 | Maldives | 117 | -3 | -12 |
| 146 | Ethiopia | 114 | -23 | -86 |
| 147 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 111 | 4 | -2 |
| 148 | Equatorial Guinea | 110 | -7 | -32 |
| 149 | Netherlands Antilles | 108 | 5 | 5 |
| 150 | Lebanon | 106 | 10 | 8 |
| 151 | Malta | 105 | 6 | 5 |
| 152 | Bangladesh | 104 | 5 | 4 |
| 153 | Lesotho | 101 | -1 | -8 |
| 154 | Niger | 100 | 8 | 8 |
| 155 | Sri Lanka | 96 | 4 | -3 |
| 156 | Liberia | 94 | -6 | -20 |
| 156 | Nepal | 94 | 5 | -2 |
| 158 | Eritrea | 92 | -3 | -9 |
| 159 | Bermuda | 90 | -25 | -70 |
| 160 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 87 | 3 | -4 |
| 161 | Nicaragua | 86 | -6 | -15 |
| 162 | New Caledonia | 82 | -17 | -44 |
| 163 | Pakistan | 75 | 2 | -3 |
| 163 | Vanuatu | 75 | -10 | -33 |
| 165 | Kyrgyzstan | 74 | 3 | 0 |
| 166 | Chinese Taipei | 69 | 1 | -6 |
| 167 | Philippines | 67 | 2 | 0 |
| 168 | Mauritania | 62 | -4 | -19 |
| 169 | Solomon Islands | 60 | 1 | 0 |
| 170 | Puerto Rico | 52 | -4 | -24 |
| 171 | Palestine | 43 | 2 | 9 |
| 172 | Comoros | 39 | -1 | 0 |
| 173 | Cayman Islands | 39 | 0 | 0 |
| 173 | Laos | 39 | 0 | 0 |
| 173 | Somalia | 38 | 0 | 0 |
| 176 | Samoa | 37 | 1 | 0 |
| 177 | Mauritius | 37 | -5 | -3 |
| 177 | Seychelles | 34 | 1 | 0 |
| 179 | Bahamas | 34 | 2 | 0 |
| 180 | Cambodia | 33 | 5 | 3 |
| 180 | Dominica | 33 | 3 | 0 |
| 182 | Belize | 32 | -3 | -4 |
| 182 | Mongolia | 32 | -3 | -4 |
| 182 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 32 | 2 | 0 |
| 185 | Dominican Republic | 26 | 2 | 0 |
| 186 | Tonga | 23 | 0 | -5 |
| 187 | Brunei Darussalam | 21 | 2 | 0 |
| 188 | Guinea-Bissau | 19 | 3 | 0 |
| 188 | St. Lucia | 19 | 3 | 0 |
| 188 | Tahiti | 19 | 3 | 0 |
| 191 | British Virgin Islands | 18 | 3 | 0 |
| 191 | Djibouti | 18 | -3 | -5 |
| 193 | Afghanistan | 17 | -4 | -4 |
| 193 | Cook Islands | 17 | -12 | -17 |
| 193 | Guam | 17 | 2 | 0 |
| 196 | Macau | 12 | 1 | -2 |
| 197 | Aruba | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| 198 | Bhutan | 9 | -2 | -6 |
| 199 | US Virgin Islands | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 200 | Timor-Leste | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | Andorra | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 202 | American Samoa | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 202 | Anguilla | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 202 | Central African Republic | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 202 | Montserrat | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 202 | Papua New Guinea | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 202 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I really admire what you do with the blog. BUT in this case, this blog post was misleading. I am not up to terminology or up to which month´s results are considered, and I seriously thought these rankings might be an update from the recent friendlies game till I clicked on your links.
ReplyDeleteThis is a not a particularly "PROBABLE" ranking since you are trying to guess the results of nothing less than 63 games. The whole world cup. Which we know is always unpredictable. I can imagine you used what you had which is eloratings but these are not particular You are extrapolating the results of 63 games, the whole world cup. These results are not probable or more probable than any other. You are feeding the eloratings to these rankings, and I am sure it was a lot of work, but this is really NOT a PROBABLE ranking at all or a preview in my understanding of the sense of the words. Scientifically, if you tried to calculate an error margin to this it would be crazily high and you could not be sure of the ordering at all!
Academical question - how accurate are eloratings to guess results anyway?
We can predict a few things already for the future rankings - how high can any team rise. Maybe how much can any team fall. But look please don´t call this a probable ranking, it is a possible ranking, but not a probable one!
Actually, there will be 64 matches in the World Cup. Plus the Baltic Cup (3 matches), two friendlies and 4 ACN qualifiers :)
ReplyDeleteThis is the terminology used on my blog for quite some time. Sorry if it's confusing. And English is not my mother tongue - I guess you can see from most of the texts posted.
Some people like the probable ranking/results thing, others not so much. I'm OK with it - I never expected to please everyone. Besides, this blog used the be named "Uninteresting things" :)
I don't consider myself a scientist or an academician, it's just a football blog. If you want more scientific approaches, check Voros McCracken's blog.
The Elo Ratings are pretty accurate - 60% - 70% if my memory doesn't play tricks on me. They are way more accurate than my predictions.
It's not a lot of work - it's all automated. It almost takes more time to properly format the data for display.
Thanks for your comment.
Edgar, thank you for the reply and all the work with the site. I am not a native speaker of english either!
ReplyDeleteI am probably too much of a science geek.
64 matches, ah, forgot about the 3rd place game. And the others games I guess won´t affect too much top ranking. Different games have different weights right?
I got a bit of a problem about feeding eloratings as probable results because by that you are just twisting the "prediction" to reflect the eloratings. I don´t think the eloratings are that good, but this is not about that. Though got to say, I don´t think 60-70% right is actually good, because errors will propagate due to the nature of cup format, where some teams will play many more games). Second, they are very weird about ranking between confederations. But then again any ranking concept is fallible.
I have one suggestion for something which would be interesting to me - a clear, no predictions of results involved, prediction for future FIFA ranking. We know the July one will take out some results from June 2006 (right?), that should be easy to use! But without predicting results, just taking out June 2006 results. I would find it more intuitive -teams which win and go further would go up compared to that predicted ranking. To compared with your probable ranking I would have to go check eloratings for the date you used and see who did better in relation to who. Hope the explanation of the suggestion makes any sense, even if you do not find it interesting!
I would prefer to see a preview of July with no points assigned
@Anonymous, I don't know if you were aware, but Edgar already does something similar to that every month. Here is the latest one: FIFA Ranking: July 2010 preview (II)
ReplyDelete"Minimum points" is the team's next ranking if they lose all their matches. "Maximum points" is if they win all matches (playing against the hardest possible opponents, avoiding penalty shootouts).
Hope this helps :-)