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Monday, July 12, 2010

Confederation weighting: New values for the next 4 years

More on confederation weighting factor calculation.

Confederation - Wins - Games - Average - Value - Adjusted value

CONMEBOL 32 61 0.52459 1.00000 1
UEFA 55 112 0.49107 0.98363 0.98
AFC 10 43 0.23256 0.81598 0.85
CAF 11 53 0.20755 0.79309 0.85
CONCACAF 7 34 0.20588 0.79150 0.85
OFC 1 7 0.09524 0.65275 0.85


Corrected to used two digit rounding and average of the three World Cups. See comments. The only change - UEFA now at 0.99 instead of 0.98.

Confed W02 T02 WPG02 W06 T06 WPG06 W10 T10 WPG10 Av02-10 FVal
CONMEBOL 10 20 0.5 10 17 0.59 12 24 0.5 0.53 1
UEFA 18 44 0.41 22 34 0.65 15 34 0.44 0.5 0.99
CONCACAF 4 10 0.4 1 13 0.08 2 11 0.18 0.22 0.8
AFC 5 17 0.29 1 12 0.08 4 14 0.29 0.22 0.8
CAF 4 17 0.24 3 16 0.19 4 20 0.2 0.21 0.79
OFC 0 0 0 1 4 0.25 0 3 0 0.08 0.62

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7 comments:

  1. AnonymousJuly 12, 2010 at 9:17 AM

    I think UEFA should be 0.99 not 0.98. In the info you obtained form FIFA they gave: av94-02 = (av94+av98+av02)/3. That is the average of the last 3 win ratios not the total win ratio.

    ReplyDelete
  2. iliasJuly 12, 2010 at 9:42 AM

    Hi Edgar
    I also think that UEFA should be 0.99. But i use a rounding with 2 digits for my calculations (as a previous answer from FIFA suggests). In reality the answer say nothing about the rounding (only it uses 2 digits rounding). In this article you use rounding with 5 digits. Which is right; (Probably the last except we use the last 3 win ratios and not the total win ratio,as the anonymous suggested).

    ReplyDelete
  3. iliasJuly 12, 2010 at 10:11 AM

    Replace ;with ?.

    ReplyDelete
  4. EdgarJuly 12, 2010 at 11:54 AM

    I think you're right. Going by total ratios yielded the same results for the last two WCs.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AxelJuly 12, 2010 at 2:09 PM

    1 / 7 = 0.09524 ???

    ReplyDelete
  6. EdgarJuly 12, 2010 at 2:12 PM

    For big values of 1 and 7, yes :)

    The value is actually 1/7 * 2/3 since OFC had no team at the 2002 WC.

    ReplyDelete
  7. AxelJuly 12, 2010 at 3:35 PM

    i see, this is how the trick works... :p
    thanks!

    ReplyDelete