Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
Potential good news for American Samoa, Anguilla, Montserrat, Papua New Guinea and San Marino. Should Andorra lose their match against Moldova, these 5 teams will all climb to join Andorra in the 202nd spot.
Probable March 2011 rank - Team - Probable March 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Spain | 1880 | 0 | -7 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 1730 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Germany | 1508 | 0 | 23 |
| 4 | Brazil | 1457 | 0 | 11 |
| 5 | Argentina | 1380 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | England | 1183 | 0 | -12 |
| 7 | Uruguay | 1172 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Portugal | 1075 | 0 | -15 |
| 9 | Croatia | 1071 | 0 | -4 |
| 10 | Greece | 1038 | 0 | 22 |
| 11 | Norway | 1000 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Russia | 977 | 0 | -5 |
| 13 | Chile | 954 | 1 | 7 |
| 14 | Italy | 940 | -1 | -25 |
| 15 | Japan | 938 | 2 | 56 |
| 16 | Ghana | 931 | -1 | -9 |
| 17 | USA | 894 | 1 | 25 |
| 18 | Slovenia | 891 | -2 | -6 |
| 19 | Slovakia | 877 | 1 | 23 |
| 20 | Australia | 870 | 1 | 23 |
| 21 | France | 867 | -2 | 0 |
| 22 | Serbia | 851 | 1 | 14 |
| 23 | Switzerland | 848 | -1 | 7 |
| 24 | Paraguay | 835 | 0 | 3 |
| 25 | Côte d'Ivoire | 824 | 1 | 11 |
| 25 | Montenegro | 824 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | Mexico | 811 | 0 | 8 |
| 28 | Denmark | 804 | 0 | 2 |
| 29 | Sweden | 754 | 0 | -5 |
| 30 | Korea Republic | 749 | 2 | 14 |
| 31 | Czech Republic | 739 | -1 | -12 |
| 32 | Turkey | 728 | -1 | -13 |
| 33 | Republic of Ireland | 699 | 2 | 18 |
| 34 | Ukraine | 692 | 0 | -10 |
| 35 | Egypt | 685 | -2 | -24 |
| 36 | Hungary | 654 | 1 | 22 |
| 37 | Belarus | 647 | -1 | -8 |
| 38 | Burkina Faso | 626 | 3 | 28 |
| 39 | Northern Ireland | 623 | -1 | 8 |
| 40 | Honduras | 620 | -1 | 7 |
| 41 | Nigeria | 609 | -1 | 5 |
| 42 | South Africa | 578 | 5 | 16 |
| 43 | Bulgaria | 577 | 8 | 22 |
| 44 | Guinea | 570 | 2 | 6 |
| 45 | Tunisia | 568 | 3 | 8 |
| 46 | Cameroon | 559 | -3 | -23 |
| 47 | Israel | 555 | 5 | 4 |
| 47 | Jamaica | 555 | 12 | 30 |
| 49 | Colombia | 551 | 1 | -7 |
| 49 | Iran | 551 | -5 | -20 |
| 51 | Romania | 549 | 6 | 18 |
| 52 | Belgium | 542 | 6 | 16 |
| 53 | Lithuania | 541 | 2 | 9 |
| 54 | Algeria | 539 | 1 | 7 |
| 55 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 534 | -13 | -49 |
| 55 | Ecuador | 534 | -1 | -3 |
| 55 | New Zealand | 534 | 9 | 28 |
| 58 | Costa Rica | 533 | -10 | -27 |
| 59 | Venezuela | 531 | 4 | 18 |
| 60 | Peru | 530 | 8 | 44 |
| 61 | Austria | 524 | -16 | -45 |
| 62 | Armenia | 520 | 0 | 6 |
| 63 | Gabon | 506 | -2 | -10 |
| 64 | Scotland | 505 | -11 | -37 |
| 65 | Cuba | 503 | 0 | 5 |
| 66 | Morocco | 493 | 8 | 50 |
| 67 | Botswana | 487 | 0 | -9 |
| 68 | Albania | 484 | -2 | -13 |
| 69 | Panama | 482 | -9 | -36 |
| 70 | Senegal | 477 | -1 | 18 |
| 71 | Libya | 472 | -1 | 21 |
| 72 | Latvia | 448 | 4 | 19 |
| 73 | China PR | 439 | 2 | 8 |
| 74 | Georgia | 435 | -3 | -14 |
| 75 | Poland | 427 | -4 | -22 |
| 75 | Uzbekistan | 427 | 2 | 3 |
| 77 | Cape Verde Islands | 419 | -4 | -25 |
| 78 | Saudi Arabia | 416 | 4 | 6 |
| 79 | FYR Macedonia | 415 | 0 | -3 |
| 80 | Benin | 413 | 3 | 10 |
| 81 | Finland | 410 | -3 | -12 |
| 81 | Jordan | 410 | 3 | 11 |
| 83 | Canada | 390 | -3 | -24 |
| 84 | Mali | 389 | 0 | -10 |
| 85 | Estonia | 388 | 2 | 2 |
| 86 | Uganda | 385 | 0 | -9 |
| 87 | Moldova | 383 | -6 | -28 |
| 88 | Iraq | 379 | 0 | -2 |
| 89 | Qatar | 377 | 1 | 9 |
| 90 | El Salvador | 373 | 8 | 26 |
| 91 | Malawi | 370 | -2 | -1 |
| 92 | Mozambique | 368 | 2 | 17 |
| 93 | Bolivia | 356 | 6 | 12 |
| 94 | Cyprus | 355 | -3 | -12 |
| 95 | Grenada | 354 | -3 | -3 |
| 96 | Trinidad and Tobago | 352 | -2 | 1 |
| 97 | Bahrain | 344 | -4 | -10 |
| 98 | Zambia | 337 | 3 | 7 |
| 99 | Gambia | 325 | 9 | 35 |
| 99 | Haiti | 325 | -3 | -24 |
| 101 | Azerbaijan | 321 | -2 | -23 |
| 102 | Antigua and Barbuda | 313 | 2 | 10 |
| 103 | Togo | 311 | 0 | -2 |
| 104 | Kuwait | 308 | -3 | -22 |
| 105 | Angola | 299 | 2 | 2 |
| 105 | Niger | 299 | -9 | -50 |
| 107 | Sudan | 298 | -1 | -3 |
| 108 | Syria | 295 | -3 | -7 |
| 109 | Guyana | 284 | 3 | 10 |
| 110 | Oman | 275 | 0 | -6 |
| 111 | United Arab Emirates | 264 | 0 | -14 |
| 112 | Central African Republic | 263 | 2 | 0 |
| 113 | Korea DPR | 259 | -4 | -30 |
| 114 | Suriname | 257 | 3 | 0 |
| 115 | Iceland | 256 | -1 | -7 |
| 116 | Wales | 251 | 0 | -10 |
| 117 | Thailand | 247 | 3 | 10 |
| 118 | Congo DR | 244 | 4 | 12 |
| 119 | Congo | 240 | 0 | 1 |
| 120 | Tanzania | 235 | 3 | 4 |
| 121 | Sierra Leone | 233 | 0 | 0 |
| 122 | Ethiopia | 231 | 1 | 0 |
| 123 | Guatemala | 220 | 3 | 0 |
| 124 | Yemen | 219 | 1 | -11 |
| 125 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 218 | -7 | -24 |
| 126 | Zimbabwe | 213 | -13 | -51 |
| 127 | Kenya | 202 | 0 | -6 |
| 128 | Indonesia | 201 | 1 | 9 |
| 129 | Dominica | 193 | -1 | -3 |
| 130 | Puerto Rico | 187 | 0 | 0 |
| 131 | Luxembourg | 181 | 0 | -4 |
| 132 | Rwanda | 175 | 3 | 4 |
| 133 | Vietnam | 172 | 1 | 0 |
| 134 | Faroe Islands | 171 | 1 | 0 |
| 135 | Barbados | 167 | -3 | -16 |
| 136 | Namibia | 158 | 2 | 1 |
| 137 | Kazakhstan | 151 | 0 | -10 |
| 138 | Malaysia | 145 | 2 | 0 |
| 139 | Singapore | 142 | 3 | 3 |
| 140 | Chad | 140 | -1 | -7 |
| 141 | Hong Kong | 138 | 2 | 0 |
| 142 | Liechtenstein | 134 | 5 | 18 |
| 143 | Burundi | 133 | 1 | -1 |
| 144 | India | 126 | 1 | 0 |
| 145 | Guinea-Bissau | 121 | 1 | 0 |
| 146 | Netherlands Antilles | 115 | 4 | 8 |
| 147 | Chinese Taipei | 114 | 7 | 21 |
| 148 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 113 | 0 | 3 |
| 148 | Tajikistan | 113 | -7 | -28 |
| 150 | Philippines | 106 | 2 | 5 |
| 151 | Fiji | 103 | 0 | 0 |
| 152 | Cambodia | 102 | 14 | 34 |
| 153 | New Caledonia | 97 | 0 | 0 |
| 154 | Turkmenistan | 94 | -21 | -88 |
| 155 | Equatorial Guinea | 92 | 10 | 20 |
| 156 | Madagascar | 91 | -1 | 0 |
| 157 | Cayman Islands | 90 | -1 | 2 |
| 158 | Swaziland | 86 | 0 | 4 |
| 159 | Liberia | 82 | -1 | 0 |
| 160 | Maldives | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 160 | Myanmar | 81 | -11 | -27 |
| 162 | Vanuatu | 76 | 1 | 0 |
| 163 | Nicaragua | 75 | -2 | -4 |
| 164 | Bermuda | 74 | 3 | 7 |
| 165 | Belize | 66 | 4 | 2 |
| 165 | Dominican Republic | 66 | 3 | 0 |
| 167 | Malta | 65 | -4 | -11 |
| 168 | Lesotho | 63 | 3 | 1 |
| 169 | Afghanistan | 61 | 26 | 51 |
| 170 | Lebanon | 58 | 2 | -3 |
| 171 | Laos | 57 | -2 | -7 |
| 171 | Palestine | 57 | 7 | 17 |
| 173 | Pakistan | 56 | 0 | 0 |
| 174 | Nepal | 54 | 0 | 0 |
| 175 | Sri Lanka | 51 | -14 | -28 |
| 176 | Bangladesh | 49 | -19 | -35 |
| 176 | Kyrgyzstan | 49 | -1 | -1 |
| 176 | Mauritania | 49 | 0 | 0 |
| 179 | British Virgin Islands | 41 | -2 | 0 |
| 180 | Eritrea | 40 | -2 | 0 |
| 180 | Solomon Islands | 40 | -2 | 0 |
| 182 | St. Lucia | 37 | -1 | 0 |
| 183 | Mongolia | 32 | -1 | 0 |
| 184 | Tahiti | 31 | -1 | 0 |
| 185 | Samoa | 26 | -1 | 0 |
| 186 | Somalia | 23 | -1 | 0 |
| 187 | Macau | 22 | 6 | 8 |
| 188 | Comoros | 19 | -2 | 0 |
| 189 | Cook Islands | 17 | -1 | 0 |
| 189 | Guam | 17 | -1 | 0 |
| 189 | Tonga | 17 | -1 | 0 |
| 192 | Mauritius | 16 | -1 | 0 |
| 193 | Djibouti | 15 | -1 | 0 |
| 194 | Bahamas | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 194 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 13 | -8 | -6 |
| 196 | Seychelles | 10 | -1 | 0 |
| 197 | Bhutan | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 197 | Brunei Darussalam | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 199 | Aruba | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| 200 | US Virgin Islands | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | Timor-Leste | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 202 | American Samoa | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 202 | Andorra | 0 | 0 | -2 |
| 202 | Anguilla | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 202 | Montserrat | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 202 | Papua New Guinea | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 202 | San Marino | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Let's say that El Salvador wins Haiti in the friendly on February 9, 2011. The result will be 26 points or is there any other external points from past (4-year) encounters.
ReplyDeleteDear Edgar, what will be if Armenia will win their game against Georgia.
ReplyDeleteHi Edgar. A while back I expressed concern on the chance that Wales, while I have no love for them and hope my England beat them in the upcoming qualifier, may end up in the bottom pot for World Cup qualifying. But it is humiliating for British football. I watched them deliver a pathetic display against a very ordinary (on the night) Ireland side, going down 3-0. But I thought they would be in a duel with Iceland to determine who would claim the last spot in Pot E. But now, it looks lie Luxembourg may have a chance of pulling the rug out from under both teams, following up their draw with Algeria with a victory over Slovakia. My questions, if you can spare the time, are what will this victory do for Luxembourg's points total, and which team is likely to win this battle for the last spot in Pot E when the time for the draw comes, with devaluation and such surely influencing things.
ReplyDelete@Lorric: although my calculations are not as accurate as Edgar's, I think Luxembourg could well have done the trick with their victory against Slovakia. Luxembourg savours a 20 point lead (approx.) on Wales at the moment and a 60 point lead over Iceland.
ReplyDeleteSo, especially Wales will have to do their utmost best to overtake Luxembourg. Iceland has no chance anymore, the difference is too big.
By the way, for all the pots it will go down to the wire. Very exciting months to look forward to.
Hi Tobcoach. I saw you on the FIFA Rankings site last month telling the Egyptians of their impending doom, ha ha!
ReplyDeleteI take it you mean that will be the predicted points situation when the draw comes, since Iceland have the lead right now. They must be losing something big to drop away so much. If Wales do end up bottom pot, I'll just have to hope that they draw Luxembourg as their 5th seed. That way, most people will just assume Luxembourg to be the bottom seed.
Thanks.
Yes Lorric, I simply couldn't resist to comment on the euphoria of Egyptian fans. It's pretty quiet there right now with African fans, isn't it? I have absolutely nothing against African football, but especially in Northern Africa, emotions sometimes take over from ratio.
ReplyDeleteIceland now have a pretty big lead, but due to the fact that the Icelandic results in the spring of 2010 (draws with Cyprus an Mexico and wins over Faroe Islands and Andorra) will devaluate 50% in strenght, they will lose a lot of points.
Make no mistake, the mentioned results are big results for Iceland and the devaluation of those results have a heavy impact on their points total. The drop of Iceland will be visible in the April rankings.
Only when Iceland can produce fine results in their upcoming qualifiers against Cyprus and Denmark, they could be in with a shout after all.
As for Wales, well, they only have a qualifier against England (not much hope, but you never know) and friendlies against Scotland and Northern Ireland to boost their rankings. Luxembourg will not lose that much points anymore.
I hope Wales still will pass Luxembourg. I have a bit of a soft spot for Wales.
@ Tobcoach to be fair the Egyptians do have bigger fish to fry right now. But like you I was also irittated by the incessant chest beating and fist pumping from the Egyptians.
ReplyDeleteSo that's where the points go. I don't think they have a chance against Denmark after seeing Denmark first hand against my England last night, even though we won, it was an even contest. I expect Wales to fight like the devil against England and their big players to show up. The idea of Bale vs Johnson sends a chill down my spine, he was a disgrace against Denmark, though funnily enough assisted on the winning goal after winning the ball in midfield and going on a run. I like Glen Johnson, but he's been well out of form lately and was terrible vs Denmark.
If Wales play in the Carling Nations cup the same way they did against Ireland, they're going to be in Pot F barring a result against England.
@La Selecta
ReplyDeleteYes, only those 26 points.
@Anonymous (Feb 9)
With a win, Armenia would have had 556 points - 47th in the ranking. However, they lost so they will be 65th.
@Tobcoach
Thanks again! :)
@Lorric
Seeding lists will be posted later today.