This is based on (FIFA points for a win) / (actual effort from Elo rating).
Slovakia
Northern Ireland
Slovenia
Greece
Montenegro
Armenia
Norway
Burkina Faso
Hungary
Serbia
Russia
Switzerland
Belarus
Guinea
Denmark
Italy
Uruguay
France
Algeria
Portugal
Montenegro, Armenia, Norway, Burkina Faso, Switzerland, Guinea and Algeria are still available on March 29th.
Of these 20 teams, only 7 will play a match against a higher ranked team (Elo home advantage included):
Hungary - home and away vs. Netherlands
Northern Ireland - away vs. Serbia
Northern Ireland - home vs. Slovenia
Armenia - home vs. Russia
Denmark - away vs. Norway
Denmark - away vs. Slovakia
Switzerland - away vs. Bulgaria
Slovenia - home vs. Italy
Algeria - home vs. Morocco
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