Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
Based on these probable results...
Brazil up to third. Norway up to ninth.
Israel, Afghanistan, Cyprus, Turkmenistan and Maldives set to climb 20 or more places.
Northern Ireland, Georgia, Cambodia, Tunisia, Scotland, Iceland, Chinese Taipei, Hungary, South Africa and Saudi Arabia set to drop 10 or more places.
Probable April 2011 rank - Team - Probable April 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
1 | Spain | 1857 | 0 | -23 |
2 | Netherlands | 1702 | 0 | -28 |
3 | Brazil | 1425 | 2 | 14 |
4 | Germany | 1412 | -1 | -74 |
5 | Argentina | 1317 | -1 | -95 |
6 | England | 1187 | 0 | -25 |
7 | Uruguay | 1095 | 0 | -77 |
8 | Portugal | 1077 | 1 | 17 |
9 | Norway | 1073 | 2 | 116 |
10 | Croatia | 1071 | -2 | 0 |
11 | Greece | 1004 | -1 | -34 |
12 | Russia | 994 | 1 | 38 |
13 | Serbia | 947 | 7 | 75 |
14 | Japan | 941 | 1 | 3 |
15 | Chile | 940 | -1 | -14 |
16 | Slovenia | 939 | 1 | 23 |
17 | Italy | 930 | -6 | -27 |
18 | Ghana | 905 | -2 | -26 |
19 | France | 883 | -1 | -30 |
20 | Côte d'Ivoire | 867 | 5 | 43 |
21 | USA | 853 | -2 | -41 |
22 | Australia | 847 | -1 | -23 |
23 | Paraguay | 833 | 1 | -2 |
24 | Slovakia | 820 | -2 | -41 |
25 | Switzerland | 819 | -2 | -20 |
26 | Mexico | 814 | 1 | 3 |
27 | Sweden | 802 | 3 | 58 |
28 | Turkey | 795 | 4 | 67 |
29 | Egypt | 777 | 6 | 92 |
30 | Korea Republic | 751 | -1 | 2 |
31 | Denmark | 749 | -3 | -39 |
32 | Montenegro | 731 | -7 | -93 |
33 | Czech Republic | 722 | -2 | -17 |
34 | Israel | 709 | 24 | 177 |
35 | Republic of Ireland | 698 | -1 | -1 |
36 | Ukraine | 694 | -3 | -13 |
37 | Nigeria | 637 | 2 | 28 |
37 | Romania | 637 | 15 | 88 |
39 | Burkina Faso | 600 | 1 | -5 |
40 | Honduras | 597 | -2 | -23 |
41 | Cameroon | 596 | 1 | 16 |
42 | Belarus | 592 | -5 | -42 |
43 | Bulgaria | 579 | 4 | 21 |
43 | Ecuador | 579 | 6 | 26 |
45 | Iran | 575 | -2 | 1 |
46 | Guinea | 559 | -2 | -10 |
46 | Hungary | 559 | -10 | -95 |
48 | Austria | 558 | 13 | 34 |
49 | Algeria | 551 | 6 | 12 |
49 | Lithuania | 551 | 5 | 10 |
51 | Belgium | 550 | 11 | 38 |
52 | Colombia | 540 | -2 | -11 |
53 | Jamaica | 534 | -5 | -21 |
53 | Libya | 534 | 18 | 62 |
55 | Costa Rica | 533 | -2 | -9 |
56 | Gabon | 529 | 4 | 3 |
56 | South Africa | 529 | -10 | -37 |
58 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 520 | -2 | -14 |
58 | Northern Ireland | 520 | -18 | -85 |
58 | Tunisia | 520 | -13 | -48 |
61 | Scotland | 517 | -11 | -34 |
62 | Peru | 513 | -3 | -17 |
63 | Morocco | 509 | 3 | 16 |
64 | New Zealand | 487 | -8 | -47 |
65 | Albania | 483 | 8 | 19 |
66 | Senegal | 476 | 3 | -1 |
67 | Panama | 473 | 1 | -9 |
68 | Armenia | 466 | -3 | -35 |
68 | Venezuela | 466 | -5 | -39 |
70 | Cyprus | 463 | 21 | 87 |
71 | Cuba | 455 | -7 | -48 |
72 | Mali | 451 | 13 | 62 |
73 | China PR | 446 | 3 | 7 |
73 | Poland | 446 | -3 | -28 |
75 | Botswana | 439 | -8 | -48 |
76 | Latvia | 438 | -1 | -10 |
77 | Malawi | 430 | 11 | 49 |
78 | Cape Verde Islands | 421 | -5 | -43 |
79 | Benin | 418 | 1 | 5 |
80 | Finland | 416 | -2 | -11 |
81 | Uzbekistan | 412 | -4 | -26 |
82 | Uganda | 402 | 4 | 17 |
83 | FYR Macedonia | 398 | 0 | -2 |
84 | Canada | 395 | 0 | 4 |
85 | Moldova | 394 | 2 | 11 |
86 | Jordan | 393 | -5 | -17 |
87 | Georgia | 392 | -15 | -77 |
88 | Iraq | 388 | 1 | 9 |
89 | Saudi Arabia | 386 | -10 | -30 |
90 | Mozambique | 375 | 3 | 7 |
91 | Estonia | 367 | -9 | -40 |
91 | Qatar | 367 | -1 | -10 |
93 | El Salvador | 355 | -1 | -18 |
94 | Grenada | 352 | 0 | -8 |
95 | Angola | 346 | 9 | 47 |
96 | Trinidad and Tobago | 344 | -1 | -8 |
96 | Zambia | 344 | 1 | 12 |
98 | Bahrain | 338 | -2 | -6 |
99 | Niger | 335 | 5 | 36 |
100 | Haiti | 334 | -1 | 9 |
101 | Antigua and Barbuda | 322 | 0 | 9 |
102 | Gambia | 317 | 5 | 20 |
103 | Kuwait | 314 | 0 | 6 |
104 | Bolivia | 312 | -7 | -20 |
105 | Syria | 297 | 3 | 2 |
106 | Sudan | 295 | 0 | -3 |
107 | Azerbaijan | 287 | -7 | -33 |
108 | Togo | 285 | -6 | -26 |
109 | Guyana | 284 | 0 | 0 |
110 | United Arab Emirates | 273 | 1 | 9 |
111 | Oman | 271 | -1 | -4 |
112 | Suriname | 267 | 2 | 10 |
113 | Tanzania | 266 | 8 | 31 |
114 | Central African Republic | 263 | -2 | 0 |
115 | Wales | 258 | 1 | 7 |
116 | Korea DPR | 256 | -3 | -3 |
117 | Congo DR | 254 | 6 | 22 |
118 | Thailand | 236 | 0 | -11 |
119 | Sierra Leone | 234 | 3 | 1 |
120 | Congo | 232 | 0 | -8 |
121 | Rwanda | 227 | 12 | 52 |
122 | Guatemala | 222 | 3 | 2 |
123 | Luxembourg | 221 | -6 | -27 |
124 | Ethiopia | 218 | 0 | -13 |
125 | Yemen | 217 | 1 | -2 |
126 | Iceland | 215 | -11 | -41 |
127 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 210 | -8 | -35 |
128 | Zimbabwe | 209 | -1 | -4 |
129 | Indonesia | 201 | 0 | 0 |
130 | Dominica | 193 | 0 | 0 |
131 | Kenya | 190 | -3 | -12 |
132 | Barbados | 182 | 5 | 15 |
133 | Puerto Rico | 180 | -2 | -7 |
134 | Tajikistan | 172 | 14 | 59 |
134 | Turkmenistan | 172 | 20 | 78 |
134 | Vietnam | 172 | 0 | 0 |
137 | Faroe Islands | 168 | -2 | -3 |
137 | Guinea-Bissau | 168 | -1 | 0 |
139 | Chad | 159 | 3 | 24 |
140 | Kazakhstan | 151 | -8 | -27 |
141 | Maldives | 146 | 20 | 65 |
142 | Malaysia | 144 | -4 | -1 |
143 | Singapore | 140 | -4 | -2 |
144 | Hong Kong | 138 | -3 | 0 |
144 | Namibia | 138 | -4 | -1 |
146 | India | 136 | -1 | 10 |
147 | Myanmar | 129 | 14 | 48 |
148 | Burundi | 127 | -4 | -6 |
149 | Curacao | 121 | -3 | 6 |
150 | Equatorial Guinea | 116 | -2 | 3 |
150 | Liechtenstein | 116 | -7 | -18 |
150 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 116 | -2 | 3 |
153 | New Caledonia | 114 | 0 | 17 |
154 | Fiji | 103 | -2 | 0 |
155 | Nepal | 101 | 17 | 47 |
155 | Philippines | 101 | -4 | -5 |
157 | Madagascar | 94 | -1 | 3 |
158 | Chinese Taipei | 91 | -11 | -23 |
159 | Cayman Islands | 90 | -1 | 0 |
160 | Swaziland | 89 | -1 | 3 |
161 | Liberia | 88 | -1 | 6 |
162 | Kyrgyzstan | 87 | 12 | 38 |
163 | Belize | 81 | 3 | 15 |
164 | Bermuda | 80 | 1 | 6 |
164 | Malta | 80 | -8 | -11 |
166 | Vanuatu | 76 | -3 | 0 |
167 | Nicaragua | 75 | -3 | 0 |
168 | Cambodia | 68 | -14 | -26 |
169 | Palestine | 67 | 9 | 27 |
170 | Dominican Republic | 66 | -4 | 0 |
171 | Afghanistan | 61 | 24 | 51 |
172 | Bangladesh | 58 | 2 | 9 |
173 | Laos | 57 | -3 | 0 |
174 | Lesotho | 56 | -6 | -6 |
175 | Lebanon | 55 | -6 | -3 |
176 | Pakistan | 54 | -5 | -2 |
177 | Sri Lanka | 53 | -4 | 2 |
178 | Tahiti | 48 | 6 | 17 |
179 | Mauritania | 45 | -5 | -4 |
180 | Eritrea | 42 | -2 | 2 |
181 | Solomon Islands | 40 | -3 | 0 |
182 | British Virgin Islands | 38 | -5 | -3 |
183 | Macau | 35 | -2 | -4 |
184 | St. Lucia | 31 | -2 | -6 |
185 | Mongolia | 27 | -2 | -5 |
186 | Samoa | 26 | -1 | 0 |
187 | Somalia | 23 | -1 | 0 |
188 | Comoros | 19 | -1 | 0 |
189 | Mauritius | 18 | 2 | 2 |
190 | Cook Islands | 17 | -2 | 0 |
190 | Tonga | 17 | -2 | 0 |
192 | Djibouti | 15 | 0 | 0 |
193 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 13 | 0 | 0 |
194 | Guam | 10 | -6 | -7 |
194 | Seychelles | 10 | 1 | 0 |
196 | Bhutan | 9 | 1 | 0 |
197 | Bahamas | 8 | -4 | -5 |
198 | Aruba | 7 | 1 | 0 |
199 | Brunei Darussalam | 6 | -2 | -3 |
200 | Timor-Leste | 3 | 1 | 0 |
200 | US Virgin Islands | 3 | 0 | -2 |
202 | American Samoa | 0 | 0 | 0 |
202 | Andorra | 0 | 0 | 0 |
202 | Anguilla | 0 | 0 | 0 |
202 | Montserrat | 0 | 0 | 0 |
202 | Papua New Guinea | 0 | 0 | 0 |
202 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
I see the problems with this ranking system in effect here, countries shedding big points even with victories. And wow, are Norway laughing if all this comes off.
ReplyDeleteWeird that I have to enter an URL. I just put this site.
Edgar, it seemed Montenegro were on course for pot 1 until they seemingly dug their own grave by setting up friendlies with Japan and South Korea. Well, for obvious reasons, the Japan friendly just got cancelled. What impact does this have on Montenegro?
ReplyDeleteThey still play Uzbekistan. I'll run some simulations next week - time allowing and everything.
ReplyDelete@Edgar
ReplyDeleteThanks Edgar. Uzbekistan should make little difference then. Japan have now cancelled the New Zealand friendly too. Will this result in Japan getting boosted up the rankings now?