2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (29 April 2011)

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumptions:

• Bosnia-Herzegovina will find a solution and escape suspension
• The July 2011 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (29 April 2011)

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (29 April 2011)

Nine teams are already locked (based on the current list of fixtures on FIFA.com).

Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England and Italy in Pot 1.
Denmark and Serbia in Pot 2.
Andorra and Kazakhstan in Pot 6.

Cyprus appear 100% in Pot 5, but they could also drop to Pot 6 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.

Greece have scheduled a friendly against Ecuador in the USA. This affects their chances for Pot 1 - falling from 98.97% to 74.08%. Three Pot 1 candidates gain more than 2%:

Norway from 63.25% to 76.52%
Portugal from 78.85% to 84.43%
France from 5.26% to 9.01%

This means I'll have to update the first pot scenarios, time allowing...

Poland's friendly against the Czech Republic was canceled, with the Czechs opting to participate in the Kirin Cup with Japan and Peru. Poland's Pot 4 chances drop by 16.8% with Armenia improving theirs by 10.32%. Poland return to Pot 5 and Armenia to Pot 4 (see below).

Based on these 10000 simulations, these is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova, Poland
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (29 April 2011)

Pot 1

100.00% - Spain
100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Germany
100.00% - England
100.00% - Italy
95.61% - Croatia
84.43% - Portugal
76.52% - Norway
74.08% - Greece
47.24% - Montenegro
13.11% - Russia
9.01% - France

Pot 2

100.00% - Denmark
100.00% - Serbia
98.24% - Slovenia
95.82% - Sweden
92.87% - Slovakia
90.99% - France
86.89% - Russia
72.77% - Turkey
52.76% - Montenegro
25.92% - Greece
23.61% - Belgium
23.48% - Norway
15.57% - Portugal
14.27% - Switzerland
4.39% - Croatia
2.14% - Israel
0.22% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.03% - Republic of Ireland
0.03% - Czech Republic

Pot 3

99.95% - Czech Republic
99.78% - Republic of Ireland
97.86% - Israel
97.50% - Ukraine
85.73% - Switzerland
76.64% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
76.38% - Belgium
70.37% - Hungary
70.30% - Belarus
32.78% - Bulgaria
27.23% - Turkey
25.54% - Albania
9.01% - Romania
7.48% - Lithuania
7.13% - Slovakia
4.18% - Sweden
3.75% - Georgia
3.46% - Armenia
3.09% - Austria
1.76% - Slovenia
0.04% - Latvia
0.02% - Scotland
0.01% - Northern Ireland
0.01% - Finland

Pot 4

99.24% - Northern Ireland
98.76% - Scotland
96.24% - Georgia
92.51% - Lithuania
89.47% - Romania
74.46% - Albania
67.22% - Bulgaria
50.85% - Austria
50.67% - Armenia
31.15% - Latvia
29.81% - Poland
29.70% - Belarus
29.63% - Hungary
23.14% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
12.26% - Finland
9.15% - Moldova
8.63% - Estonia
3.05% - FYR Macedonia
2.50% - Ukraine
1.33% - Azerbaijan
0.19% - Republic of Ireland
0.02% - Czech Republic
0.01% - Belgium
0.01% - Faroe Islands

Pot 5

100.00% - Cyprus
96.85% - FYR Macedonia
93.83% - Azerbaijan
91.37% - Estonia
90.85% - Moldova
87.73% - Finland
70.19% - Poland
68.81% - Latvia
56.63% - Iceland
46.06% - Austria
45.87% - Armenia
31.64% - Wales
11.40% - Faroe Islands
3.17% - Luxembourg
1.71% - Liechtenstein
1.52% - Romania
1.22% - Scotland
0.75% - Northern Ireland
0.37% - Malta
0.01% - Lithuania
0.01% - Georgia
0.01% - San Marino

Pot 6

100.00% - Kazakhstan
100.00% - Andorra
99.99% - San Marino
99.63% - Malta
98.29% - Liechtenstein
96.83% - Luxembourg
88.59% - Faroe Islands
68.36% - Wales
43.37% - Iceland
4.84% - Azerbaijan
0.10% - FYR Macedonia

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (29 April 2011)

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info. 


Spain: 100.00% in Pot 1
Netherlands: 100.00% in Pot 1
Germany: 100.00% in Pot 1
England: 100.00% in Pot 1
Italy: 100.00% in Pot 1
Croatia: 95.61% in Pot 1, 4.39% in Pot 2
Portugal: 84.43% in Pot 1, 15.57% in Pot 2
Norway: 76.52% in Pot 1, 23.48% in Pot 2
Greece: 74.08% in Pot 1, 25.92% in Pot 2
Montenegro: 52.76% in Pot 2, 47.24% in Pot 1
Russia: 86.89% in Pot 2, 13.11% in Pot 1
France: 90.99% in Pot 2, 9.01% in Pot 1
Denmark: 100.00% in Pot 2
Serbia: 100.00% in Pot 2
Slovenia: 98.24% in Pot 2, 1.76% in Pot 3
Sweden: 95.82% in Pot 2, 4.18% in Pot 3
Slovakia: 92.87% in Pot 2, 7.13% in Pot 3
Turkey: 72.77% in Pot 2, 27.23% in Pot 3
Belgium: 76.38% in Pot 3, 23.61% in Pot 2, 0.01% in Pot 4
Switzerland: 85.73% in Pot 3, 14.27% in Pot 2
Israel: 97.86% in Pot 3, 2.14% in Pot 2
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 76.64% in Pot 3, 23.14% in Pot 4, 0.22% in Pot 2
Czech Republic: 99.95% in Pot 3, 0.03% in Pot 2, 0.02% in Pot 4
Republic of Ireland: 99.78% in Pot 3, 0.19% in Pot 4, 0.03% in Pot 2
Ukraine: 97.50% in Pot 3, 2.50% in Pot 4
Hungary: 70.37% in Pot 3, 29.63% in Pot 4
Belarus: 70.30% in Pot 3, 29.70% in Pot 4
Bulgaria: 67.22% in Pot 4, 32.78% in Pot 3
Albania: 74.46% in Pot 4, 25.54% in Pot 3
Romania: 89.47% in Pot 4, 9.01% in Pot 3, 1.52% in Pot 5
Lithuania: 92.51% in Pot 4, 7.48% in Pot 3, 0.01% in Pot 5
Georgia: 96.24% in Pot 4, 3.75% in Pot 3, 0.01% in Pot 5
Armenia: 50.67% in Pot 4, 45.87% in Pot 5, 3.46% in Pot 3
Austria: 50.85% in Pot 4, 46.06% in Pot 5, 3.09% in Pot 3
Latvia: 68.81% in Pot 5, 31.15% in Pot 4, 0.04% in Pot 3
Scotland: 98.76% in Pot 4, 1.22% in Pot 5, 0.02% in Pot 3
Northern Ireland: 99.24% in Pot 4, 0.75% in Pot 5, 0.01% in Pot 3
Finland: 87.73% in Pot 5, 12.26% in Pot 4, 0.01% in Pot 3
Poland: 70.19% in Pot 5, 29.81% in Pot 4
Moldova: 90.85% in Pot 5, 9.15% in Pot 4
Estonia: 91.37% in Pot 5, 8.63% in Pot 4
FYR Macedonia: 96.85% in Pot 5, 3.05% in Pot 4, 0.10% in Pot 6
Azerbaijan: 93.83% in Pot 5, 4.84% in Pot 6, 1.33% in Pot 4
Faroe Islands: 88.59% in Pot 6, 11.40% in Pot 5, 0.01% in Pot 4
Cyprus: 100.00% in Pot 5
Iceland: 56.63% in Pot 5, 43.37% in Pot 6
Wales: 68.36% in Pot 6, 31.64% in Pot 5
Luxembourg: 96.83% in Pot 6, 3.17% in Pot 5
Liechtenstein: 98.29% in Pot 6, 1.71% in Pot 5
Malta: 99.63% in Pot 6, 0.37% in Pot 5
San Marino: 99.99% in Pot 6, 0.01% in Pot 5
Kazakhstan: 100.00% in Pot 6
Andorra: 100.00% in Pot 6

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Are some teams more equal than others?

Did you read George Orwell's Animal Farm? In Chapter 10, only one commandment remains on the wall: "All animals are equal but some animals are more equal than others". Something similar happens in football - some teams don't have to follow the rules.

Some of you may remember FIFA's circular no. 1150.

"In national A team matches, up to a maximum of six substitutes may be used."

On 3 March 2010, Portugal defeated China PR 2 - 0 in a friendly match. Both teams made 7 substitutions. That game was removed from FIFA's list of "A" matches. If you go on FIFA.com and search for matches between Portugal and China PR only one result will be returned: a friendly played in May 2002 in Macau and won 2 - 0 by the Portuguese.

On 11 August 2010, Mexico tied Spain in a friendly match. Mexico made 7 substitutions, the World champions made 8. The match report can be found on Marca.com and on the website of the Mexican Football Federation (click Por Año, click AÑO 2010, click on the "5" in the "JE" column and "AÑO 2010" row, click on the score for México - España).

This match is still on FIFA.com.

Fast forward to 29 March 2011. Qatar and Russia played a friendly in Doha to celebrate their nominations as hosts of the 2022 and 2018 FIFA World Cups. The game finished 1 - 1 with Qatar making 9 substitutions and Russia 8. The match report can be found on the website of the Football Union of Russia (that's the Russian FA for those who might ask) and there's also this article in Qatar's Gulf Times. Here's an interesting quote:

Russia returned with an overhauled look after the break with Advocaat making as many as seven changes to the side without much success.

This match is still on FIFA.com.

Are some teams more equal than others?

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: May 2011 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on 18 May.

Best movers:

11 - Senegal
10 - Afghanistan
9 - Jamaica

Worst movers:

-10 - Congo DR
-9 - Kyrgyzstan
-8 - Ecuador

Best movers in the top 50:

11 - Senegal
2 - South Africa
1 - Chile, Slovakia, Denmark and Sweden

Worst movers in the top 50:

-2 - Mexico and Burkina Faso
-1 - Japan, Belgium, Nigeria, Algeria, Romania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Lithuania, Iran, Cameroon and Colombia

South Africa overtake Nigeria for 4th in Africa.
Jamaica and Costa Rica switch places, with the Reggae Boyz now 4th in CONCACAF.

May 2011 rank - Team - May 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Spain	1857	0	0
2	Netherlands	1702	0	0
3	Brazil	1425	0	0
4	Germany	1413	0	27
5	Argentina	1267	0	-9
6	England	1163	0	0
7	Uruguay	1094	0	0
8	Portugal	1052	0	0
9	Italy	1019	0	0
10	Croatia	991	0	0
11	Norway	987	0	0
12	Greece	985	0	0
13	Chile	967	1	15
14	Japan	961	-1	0
15	Ghana	918	0	0
16	Serbia	907	0	0
17	Slovenia	903	0	0
18	Russia	896	0	0
19	France	883	0	0
20	Australia	876	0	0
21	Côte d'Ivoire	867	0	0
22	USA	855	0	0
23	Paraguay	847	0	4
24	Montenegro	820	0	0
25	Switzerland	819	0	0
26	Slovakia	809	1	0
27	Denmark	808	1	0
28	Mexico	802	-2	-16
28	Sweden	802	1	0
30	Turkey	795	0	0
31	Korea Republic	754	0	4
32	Czech Republic	722	0	0
33	Israel	709	0	0
34	Republic of Ireland	681	0	0
35	Ukraine	678	0	0
36	Egypt	676	0	0
37	South Africa	671	2	55
38	Belgium	654	-1	0
39	Nigeria	637	-1	0
40	Senegal	613	11	52
41	Algeria	609	-1	0
42	Romania	607	-1	0
43	Honduras	603	0	6
44	Burkina Faso	600	-2	0
45	Bosnia-Herzegovina	594	-1	0
46	Bulgaria	592	-1	0
47	Lithuania	577	-1	0
48	Iran	575	-1	0
49	Cameroon	572	-1	0
50	Albania	564	0	0
50	Colombia	564	-1	-4
52	Hungary	559	0	0
53	Belarus	557	0	0
54	Peru	548	0	0
55	Jamaica	546	9	24
56	Costa Rica	541	-1	1
57	Georgia	536	-1	0
58	Libya	534	0	0
59	Gabon	529	0	0
60	New Zealand	528	0	0
61	Tunisia	527	0	0
62	Armenia	524	0	0
62	Guinea	524	0	0
64	Ecuador	523	-8	-13
65	Northern Ireland	520	0	0
66	Scotland	517	0	0
67	Panama	493	1	5
68	Venezuela	489	-1	-12
69	Botswana	479	0	0
70	Mali	451	0	0
71	Poland	449	0	0
72	Malawi	446	6	16
73	Morocco	445	-1	0
74	Austria	443	-1	0
75	Estonia	440	-1	0
76	Canada	439	-1	0
77	China PR	438	0	6
77	Latvia	438	-1	0
79	Cape Verde Islands	421	0	0
80	Benin	418	0	0
81	Cuba	416	1	5
81	Finland	416	0	0
83	Uzbekistan	403	0	0
84	Uganda	402	0	0
85	FYR Macedonia	398	0	0
86	Moldova	394	0	0
87	El Salvador	391	0	3
88	Saudi Arabia	386	0	0
89	Cyprus	383	0	0
89	Iraq	383	2	3
89	Zambia	383	0	0
92	Qatar	380	-1	0
93	Jordan	378	0	-1
94	Mozambique	357	2	20
95	Trinidad and Tobago	353	-1	9
96	Haiti	348	2	14
97	Bahrain	338	-2	0
98	Grenada	337	1	6
99	Niger	335	-2	0
100	Antigua and Barbuda	322	0	0
101	Kuwait	320	0	0
102	Bolivia	312	0	0
103	Gambia	308	0	0
104	Angola	295	3	7
104	Sudan	295	1	0
104	Syria	295	0	-2
107	Oman	294	-1	4
108	Azerbaijan	288	-1	0
109	Togo	285	0	0
110	Guyana	284	0	0
111	United Arab Emirates	273	0	0
112	Suriname	267	0	0
113	Central African Republic	263	1	0
114	Tanzania	259	-2	-8
115	Wales	258	0	0
116	Korea DPR	255	2	3
117	Iceland	254	-1	0
118	Sierra Leone	246	3	12
119	St. Kitts and Nevis	245	0	0
120	Thailand	242	0	6
121	Congo	232	1	0
122	Rwanda	228	1	0
123	Kenya	227	1	0
124	Guatemala	222	1	0
125	Luxembourg	221	1	0
126	Congo DR	219	-10	-35
126	Zimbabwe	219	3	7
128	Ethiopia	218	-1	0
129	Yemen	203	-1	-14
130	Indonesia	200	0	-1
131	Dominica	193	0	0
132	Barbados	180	0	-2
132	Puerto Rico	180	1	0
134	Vietnam	172	0	0
135	Tajikistan	171	-1	-1
136	Faroe Islands	168	0	0
136	Guinea-Bissau	168	0	0
138	Madagascar	164	0	2
139	Kazakhstan	151	1	0
140	Namibia	150	1	0
141	Turkmenistan	149	-2	-4
142	Equatorial Guinea	146	0	-2
143	Malaysia	144	1	0
144	Singapore	140	1	0
145	India	139	1	0
146	Hong Kong	138	1	0
147	Nepal	135	3	9
148	Maldives	133	-5	-13
149	Burundi	127	-1	0
149	Chad	127	-1	0
151	New Caledonia	123	0	0
152	Curacao	121	0	0
153	Liechtenstein	116	0	0
153	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	116	0	0
155	Fiji	103	1	0
156	Philippines	96	-1	-8
157	Liberia	93	2	5
158	Cayman Islands	90	-1	0
159	Swaziland	89	-1	0
160	Chinese Taipei	86	1	0
161	Malta	84	2	4
162	Bermuda	80	1	0
163	Bangladesh	79	3	4
164	Afghanistan	77	10	16
165	Vanuatu	76	0	0
166	Nicaragua	75	0	0
167	Myanmar	74	-6	-12
168	Pakistan	72	0	0
169	Kyrgyzstan	70	-9	-17
169	Sri Lanka	70	4	8
171	Palestine	67	-1	0
172	Belize	66	-1	0
172	Dominican Republic	66	-1	0
174	Laos	57	1	0
174	Tahiti	57	1	0
176	Cambodia	56	-7	-12
176	Lesotho	56	1	0
178	Lebanon	51	0	-4
179	Mongolia	48	0	-5
180	Mauritania	45	0	0
181	Eritrea	42	0	0
182	Solomon Islands	40	0	0
183	British Virgin Islands	38	0	0
184	Macau	32	0	-3
185	St. Lucia	31	0	0
186	Samoa	26	0	0
187	Somalia	23	0	0
188	Comoros	19	0	0
189	Mauritius	18	0	0
190	Cook Islands	17	0	0
190	Tonga	17	0	0
192	Djibouti	15	0	0
193	Turks and Caicos Islands	13	0	0
194	Seychelles	11	0	1
195	Guam	10	-1	0
196	Bahamas	9	0	0
196	Bhutan	9	0	0
196	Brunei Darussalam	9	3	3
199	Aruba	7	-1	0
200	Timor-Leste	3	0	0
200	US Virgin Islands	3	0	0
202	American Samoa	0	0	0
202	Andorra	0	0	0
202	Anguilla	0	0	0
202	Montserrat	0	0	0
202	Papua New Guinea	0	0	0
202	San Marino	0	0	0

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

World Cup qualification: Worst runner-up problem (UEFA)

In the 2010 UEFA FWCQ, Norway were the worst runner-up. I was looking at the groups and I thought at a different approach:

• rank the group winners using only games against the teams ranked 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th.
• the worst group winner will play-off against the runner-up from its group
• the other runner-ups play against each other

In the 2010 FWCQ, Denmark were the worst group winners. Using the same pairings, this is how the play-offs would have looked like:

Portugal vs Denmark
Norway vs France
Russia vs Bosnia and Herzegovina
Ukraine vs Republic of Ireland
Greece vs Slovenia

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

CONCACAF format pending FIFA approval

On Tuesday, CONCACAF have published details regarding the format they will use for the 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifiers. Although the announcement was made 13 days after FIFA published the April 2011 ranking, CONCACAF chose the March 2011 ranking to seed the teams.

Panama would have replaced Cuba in the list of teams getting a bye to the second group stage.

The FIFA EXCO will analyze the format in its meeting to be held at the end of May.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): First pot scenarios

Based on current list of fixtures, five teams are already safe in the first pot: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England and Italy.

Seven teams are fighting for the last four places available in the first pot.

Greece: Malta (ECQ - H) (Italy match has been canceled)
Croatia: Georgia (ECQ - H)
Portugal: Norway (ECQ - H)
Norway: Portugal (ECQ - A), Lithuania (F - H)
Montenegro: Bulgaria (ECQ - H)
France: Belarus (ECQ - A), Ukraine (F - A), Poland (F - A)
Russia: Armenia (ECQ - H)

France and Russia depend on other results going their way, but the other five teams (yes, including Montenegro) have their faith in their own hands.

Greece

Safe in Pot 1 if:

Greece - Malta 1

Other options:

Greece - Malta X and two of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia X2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
France not to win all their three matches (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland)
Portugal - Norway 2 or (Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2)

Greece - Malta 2 and two of the following must happen:

(Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2) or Portugal - Norway 2
Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Belarus - France 1X or Ukraine - France 1x or Poland - France 1

Croatia

Safe in Pot 1 if:

Croatia - Georgia 1

Other options:

Croatia - Georgia X and two of the following must happen:

(Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2) or (Portugal - Norway 2)
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Greece - Malta 2
France not to win all their three matches (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland)

Croatia - Georgia 2 and three of the following must happen:

Portugal - Norway 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2
Belarus - France 1x or France to make at most two points against Ukraine and Poland

Portugal

Safe in Pot 1 if:

Portugal - Norway 1

Other options:

Portugal - Norway X and two of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia X2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Greece - Malta X2
France not to win all their three matches (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland)

Portugal - Norway 2 and all three to happen:

Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2
(Belarus - France 1X and Ukraine - France 1 and Poland - France 1X) or (Belarus - France 1 and France not to win both games against Ukraine and Poland)

Norway

Safe in pot 1 if:

Portugal - Norway 2

OR

Portugal - Norway X
Norway - Lithuania 1X

Other options:

Portugal - Norway X, Norway - Lithuania 2 and one of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia X2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Greece - Malta X2
France not to win all their three matches (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland)

Portugal - Norway 1, Norway - Lithuania 1 and two of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia X2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Greece - Malta X2
France not to win all their three matches (Belarus, Ukraine, Poland)

Portugal Norway 1, Norway - Lithuania X and three of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2
(Belarus - France 1x or France to make at most two points against Ukraine and Poland or Ukraine - France 1)

Portugal Norway 1, Norway - Lithuania 2 and three of the following must happen:

Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2
(Belarus - France 1x or France to make at most one point against Ukraine and Poland)

Montenegro

Safe in Pot 1 if:

Montenegro - Bulgaria 1

Any other results means Pot 2.

Russia

Russia - Armenia 1 and three of the following must happen:

(Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2) or (Portugal - Norway 2)
Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Belarus - France 1X or France to make at most two points against Ukraine and Poland or Ukraine - France 1

Any other results means Pot 2.

France

Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France 2, Poland - France 2 and two of the following to happen:

Greece - Malta X2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Croatia - Georgia X2
Portugal - Norway 12 or (Portugal - Norway X and Norway - Lithuania 2)


Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France 2, Poland - France X and two of the following to happen:

Portugal - Norway 2 or (Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2)
Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Greece - Malta 2

Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France X, Poland - France 2

or

Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France 2, Poland - France 1

and two of the following to happen:

Portugal - Norway 2 or (Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania X2)
Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2


Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France X, Poland - France X

and three of the following to happen:

Portugal - Norway 2 or (Portugal - Norway 1 and Norway - Lithuania 2)
Croatia - Georgia 2
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2



Belarus - France 2, Ukraine - France X, Poland - France 1

or

Belarus - France X, Ukraine - France 2, Poland - France 2

and all three to happen:

Portugal - Norway 1
Montenegro - Bulgaria X2
Russia - Armenia X2

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations (22 April 2011)

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info. 

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumptions:

• Bosnia-Herzegovina will find a solution and escape suspension
• The July 2011 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (22 April 2011)

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (22 April 2011)

Nine teams are already locked (based on the current list of fixtures on FIFA.com).

Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England and Italy in Pot 1.
Denmark and Serbia in Pot 2.
Andorra and Kazakhstan in Pot 6.

Cyprus appear 100% in Pot  5, but they could also drop to Pot 6 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.

Poland have improved their chances to reach pot 4 by scheduling a friendly against Czech Republic from 30.11% to 46.61%. Somebody had to lose and it's Armenia - their chances of reaching pot 4 dropping from 50.58% to 40.37%. Poland also replace Armenia in Pot 4 (see below).

Based on these 10000 simulations, these is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Poland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (22 April 2011)

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info.  

Pot 1

100.00% - Spain
100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Germany
100.00% - England
100.00% - Italy
98.97% - Greece
94.30% - Croatia
78.85% - Portugal
63.25% - Norway
47.24% - Montenegro
12.13% - Russia
5.26% - France

Pot 2

100.00% - Denmark
100.00% - Serbia
98.22% - Slovenia
95.91% - Sweden
94.74% - France
93.40% - Slovakia
87.87% - Russia
72.20% - Turkey
52.76% - Montenegro
36.75% - Norway
23.85% - Belgium
21.15% - Portugal
14.20% - Switzerland
5.70% - Croatia
2.02% - Israel
1.03% - Greece
0.15% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.05% - Republic of Ireland

Pot 3

99.99% - Czech Republic
99.81% - Republic of Ireland
97.98% - Israel
97.32% - Ukraine
85.80% - Switzerland
76.56% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
76.14% - Belgium
70.86% - Hungary
70.18% - Belarus
33.57% - Bulgaria
27.80% - Turkey
25.57% - Albania
8.93% - Romania
7.63% - Lithuania
6.60% - Slovakia
4.09% - Sweden
3.59% - Georgia
2.92% - Armenia
2.82% - Austria
1.78% - Slovenia
0.02% - Northern Ireland
0.02% - Finland
0.01% - Scotland
0.01% - Latvia

Pot 4

98.89% - Northern Ireland
98.70% - Scotland
96.41% - Georgia
92.37% - Lithuania
89.07% - Romania
74.43% - Albania
66.43% - Bulgaria
49.53% - Austria
46.61% - Poland
40.37% - Armenia
30.43% - Latvia
29.82% - Belarus
29.14% - Hungary
23.29% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
10.97% - Finland
8.66% - Moldova
7.97% - Estonia
2.77% - FYR Macedonia
2.68% - Ukraine
1.30% - Azerbaijan
0.14% - Republic of Ireland
0.01% - Belgium
0.01% - Czech Republic

Pot 5

100.00% - Cyprus
97.18% - FYR Macedonia
94.00% - Azerbaijan
92.03% - Estonia
91.34% - Moldova
89.01% - Finland
69.56% - Latvia
56.71% - Armenia
56.36% - Iceland
53.39% - Poland
47.65% - Austria
32.02% - Wales
11.17% - Faroe Islands
3.37% - Luxembourg
2.00% - Romania
1.55% - Liechtenstein
1.29% - Scotland
1.09% - Northern Ireland
0.27% - Malta
0.01% - San Marino

Pot 6

100.00% - Kazakhstan
100.00% - Andorra
99.99% - San Marino
99.73% - Malta
98.45% - Liechtenstein
96.63% - Luxembourg
88.83% - Faroe Islands
67.98% - Wales
43.64% - Iceland
4.70% - Azerbaijan
0.05% - FYR Macedonia

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (22 April 2011)

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info.  

Spain: 100.00% in Pot 1
Netherlands: 100.00% in Pot 1
Germany: 100.00% in Pot 1
England: 100.00% in Pot 1
Italy: 100.00% in Pot 1
Greece: 98.97% in Pot 1, 1.03% in Pot 2
Croatia: 94.30% in Pot 1, 5.70% in Pot 2
Portugal: 78.85% in Pot 1, 21.15% in Pot 2
Norway: 63.25% in Pot 1, 36.75% in Pot 2
Montenegro: 52.76% in Pot 2, 47.24% in Pot 1
Russia: 87.87% in Pot 2, 12.13% in Pot 1
France: 94.74% in Pot 2, 5.26% in Pot 1
Denmark: 100.00% in Pot 2
Serbia: 100.00% in Pot 2
Slovenia: 98.22% in Pot 2, 1.78% in Pot 3
Sweden: 95.91% in Pot 2, 4.09% in Pot 3
Slovakia: 93.40% in Pot 2, 6.60% in Pot 3
Turkey: 72.20% in Pot 2, 27.80% in Pot 3
Belgium: 76.14% in Pot 3, 23.85% in Pot 2, 0.01% in Pot 4
Switzerland: 85.80% in Pot 3, 14.20% in Pot 2
Israel: 97.98% in Pot 3, 2.02% in Pot 2
Bosnia-Herzegovina: 76.56% in Pot 3, 23.29% in Pot 4, 0.15% in Pot 2
Republic of Ireland: 99.81% in Pot 3, 0.14% in Pot 4, 0.05% in Pot 2
Czech Republic: 99.99% in Pot 3, 0.01% in Pot 4
Ukraine: 97.32% in Pot 3, 2.68% in Pot 4
Hungary: 70.86% in Pot 3, 29.14% in Pot 4
Belarus: 70.18% in Pot 3, 29.82% in Pot 4
Bulgaria: 66.43% in Pot 4, 33.57% in Pot 3
Albania: 74.43% in Pot 4, 25.57% in Pot 3
Romania: 89.07% in Pot 4, 8.93% in Pot 3, 2.00% in Pot 5
Lithuania: 92.37% in Pot 4, 7.63% in Pot 3
Georgia: 96.41% in Pot 4, 3.59% in Pot 3
Armenia: 56.71% in Pot 5, 40.37% in Pot 4, 2.92% in Pot 3
Austria: 49.53% in Pot 4, 47.65% in Pot 5, 2.82% in Pot 3
Northern Ireland: 98.89% in Pot 4, 1.09% in Pot 5, 0.02% in Pot 3
Finland: 89.01% in Pot 5, 10.97% in Pot 4, 0.02% in Pot 3
Scotland: 98.70% in Pot 4, 1.29% in Pot 5, 0.01% in Pot 3
Latvia: 69.56% in Pot 5, 30.43% in Pot 4, 0.01% in Pot 3
Poland: 53.39% in Pot 5, 46.61% in Pot 4
Moldova: 91.34% in Pot 5, 8.66% in Pot 4
Estonia: 92.03% in Pot 5, 7.97% in Pot 4
FYR Macedonia: 97.18% in Pot 5, 2.77% in Pot 4, 0.05% in Pot 6
Azerbaijan: 94.00% in Pot 5, 4.70% in Pot 6, 1.30% in Pot 4
Cyprus: 100.00% in Pot 5
Iceland: 56.36% in Pot 5, 43.64% in Pot 6
Wales: 67.98% in Pot 6, 32.02% in Pot 5
Faroe Islands: 88.83% in Pot 6, 11.17% in Pot 5
Luxembourg: 96.63% in Pot 6, 3.37% in Pot 5
Liechtenstein: 98.45% in Pot 6, 1.55% in Pot 5
Malta: 99.73% in Pot 6, 0.27% in Pot 5
San Marino: 99.99% in Pot 6, 0.01% in Pot 5
Kazakhstan: 100.00% in Pot 6
Andorra: 100.00% in Pot 6

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

April 2011: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Solomon Islands	182	117	65
Fiji	156	111	45
Papua New Guinea	202	164	38
Bolivia	102	69	33
Lebanon	178	145	33
Venezuela	67	35	32
Iraq	91	60	31
Kuwait	101	70	31
Wales	115	84	31
New Caledonia	151	121	30

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Algeria	40	92	-52
Puerto Rico	133	176	-43
Armenia	62	104	-42
Luxembourg	126	166	-40
Antigua and Barbuda	100	137	-37
Albania	50	86	-36
Dominica	131	167	-36
Grenada	99	133	-34
Burkina Faso	42	75	-33
St. Kitts and Nevis	119	152	-33

Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)

Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:

 Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference

Venezuela	67	35	32
China PR	77	49	28
Poland	71	44	27
Colombia	49	26	23
Ecuador	56	36	20
Scotland	66	46	20
Iran	47	30	17
Jamaica	64	47	17
Sweden	29	14	15
Egypt	36	21	15

Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:

 Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
 

Algeria	40	92	-52
Albania	50	86	-36
Burkina Faso	42	75	-33
Slovakia	27	56	-29
Slovenia	17	42	-25
Greece	12	29	-17
Lithuania	46	62	-16
Montenegro	24	38	-14
Norway	11	24	-13
Serbia	16	28	-12

Matches I would have liked to see before the next ranking:

Venezuela - Slovakia
China PR - Algeria
Poland - Albania
Colombia - Slovenia
Ecuador - Armenia
Scotland - Burkina Faso
Iran - Lithuania
Jamaica - Georgia
Sweden - Montenegro
Egypt - Greece

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations

Quick note for journalists and bloggers. I noticed that lately some of you tend to use data from my blog without bothering to mention the source. As I mentioned before, you are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info.


I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumptions:

• Bosnia-Herzegovina will find a solution and escape suspension
• The July 2011 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams

When you see 100% it means in all the 10000 simulations that team landed in a certain pot. It doesn't automatically mean that team is 100% safe. Next Friday I will publish a post that will explain scenarios and will answer all those "what does my team have to do in order to be in pot X?" questions.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot

Based on these 10000 simulations, these is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova, Poland
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info.

See the explanation here.

Pot 1:


100.00% - Spain
100.00% - Netherlands
100.00% - Germany
100.00% - England
100.00% - Italy
98.87% - Greece
94.22% - Croatia
78.54% - Portugal
63.10% - Norway
47.70% - Montenegro
12.05% - Russia
5.52% - France

Pot 2:

100.00% - Denmark
100.00% - Serbia
98.17% - Slovenia
95.85% - Sweden
94.48% - France
93.37% - Slovakia
87.95% - Russia
72.26% - Turkey
52.30% - Montenegro
36.90% - Norway
23.65% - Belgium
21.46% - Portugal
14.26% - Switzerland
5.78% - Croatia
2.15% - Israel
1.13% - Greece
0.26% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.03% - Republic of Ireland

Pot 3:

100.00% - Czech Republic
99.82% - Republic of Ireland
98.58% - Ukraine
97.85% - Israel
85.74% - Switzerland
76.35% - Belgium
76.20% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
70.19% - Hungary
69.58% - Belarus
31.35% - Bulgaria
27.74% - Turkey
25.76% - Albania
9.79% - Romania
7.65% - Lithuania
6.63% - Slovakia
4.15% - Sweden
3.66% - Georgia
3.60% - Austria
3.44% - Armenia
1.83% - Slovenia
0.04% - Northern Ireland
0.02% - Scotland
0.01% - Estonia
0.01% - Latvia
0.01% - Finland

Pot 4:

99.26% - Northern Ireland
98.79% - Scotland
96.34% - Georgia
92.35% - Lithuania
88.54% - Romania
74.24% - Albania
68.65% - Bulgaria
50.58% - Armenia
49.73% - Austria
30.90% - Latvia
30.42% - Belarus
30.11% - Poland
29.81% - Hungary
23.54% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
13.20% - Finland
8.90% - Estonia
8.76% - Moldova
2.83% - FYR Macedonia
1.46% - Azerbaijan
1.42% - Ukraine
0.15% - Republic of Ireland
0.02% - Faroe Islands

Pot 5:

100.00% - Cyprus
97.16% - FYR Macedonia
93.86% - Azerbaijan
91.24% - Moldova
91.09% - Estonia
86.79% - Finland
69.89% - Poland
69.09% - Latvia
56.66% - Iceland
46.67% - Austria
45.98% - Armenia
31.95% - Wales
10.33% - Faroe Islands
3.53% - Luxembourg
1.82% - Liechtenstein
1.67% - Romania
1.19% - Scotland
0.70% - Northern Ireland
0.38% - Malta

Pot 6:

100.00% - Kazakhstan
100.00% - Andorra
100.00% - San Marino
99.62% - Malta
98.18% - Liechtenstein
96.47% - Luxembourg
89.65% - Faroe Islands
68.05% - Wales
43.34% - Iceland
4.68% - Azerbaijan
0.01% - FYR Macedonia

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.