I assume Bosnia-Herzegovina will find some sort of solution before their qualifier against Romania.
Arild Sandven from Norway's Aftenposten might be a bit disappointed - Norway will probably fall from the first pot. Thanks for the link Arild! Other newspapers use info from my website and "forget" to even mention the source.
FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings
Underachievers
Special mention for Poland (25 in Europe in the Elo Rating). Based on the Elo Ratings they would be in the third pot, but their probable FIFA Ranking puts them in the fifth pot. I was some sort of prophet in November 2009.
Sweden (8) and France (9) fail to reach the first pot.
Ukraine (11), Republic of Ireland (14) and Switzerland (18) fail to reach the second pot.
Romania (21), Bulgaria (23) and Scotland (26) fail to reach the third pot.
Finland (33) and Latvia (36) fail to reach the fourth pot.
Wales (39) fail to reach the fifth pot.
Overachievers
Montenegro (20) in the first pot! Based on their Elo Rating, they would be in the third pot.
Slovakia (30) in the second pot. Based on their Elo Rating, they would be in the fourth pot.
Greece (16) in the first pot.
Slovenia (22) in the second pot.
Bosnia-Herzegovina (28), Hungary (29) and Belarus (31) in the third pot.
Georgia (37), Albania (40) and Armenia (44) in the fourth pot.
Iceland (46) in the fifth pot.
Rank - Team - Points
1 Spain 1609 2 Netherlands 1577 3 Germany 1305 4 England 1243 5 Italy 1116 6 Portugal 1076 7 Croatia 1033 8 Montenegro 1011 9 Greece 994 -------------------------------- 10 Norway 972 11 Russia 943 12 France 932 13 Sweden 884 14 Denmark 856 15 Serbia 852 16 Slovenia 832 17 Turkey 820 18 Slovakia 779 -------------------------------- 19 Republic of Ireland 736 20 Switzerland 724 21 Czech Republic 703 21 Israel 703 23 Belgium 691 24 Bosnia-Herzegovina 642 25 Ukraine 625 26 Hungary 603 27 Belarus 594 -------------------------------- 28 Romania 571 29 Lithuania 568 30 Albania 558 31 Bulgaria 550 32 Georgia 530 33 Scotland 513 34 Northern Ireland 506 35 Austria 479 36 Armenia 462 -------------------------------- 37 Poland 459 38 Estonia 434 39 Latvia 432 40 Finland 419 41 Cyprus 398 42 Moldova 383 43 FYR Macedonia 331 44 Azerbaijan 299 45 Iceland 244 -------------------------------- 46 Wales 240 47 Luxembourg 213 48 Kazakhstan 173 49 Faroe Islands 156 50 Liechtenstein 109 51 Malta 83 52 Andorra 0 52 San Marino 0
Did you use the predicted May rankings to know how many points each result in June would bring?
ReplyDeleteOh, if Montenegro take that spot, I can't wait to see the reaction!
ReplyDeleteA draw with Portugal gives Norway ~45 points and makes Portugal lose 70, so that makes the equation pretty simple for Norway. Draw with Portugal and beat Lithuania.
ReplyDeleteAnd yes, Montenegro in first pot with a competitive record of W5 D7 L3 is weird. (I'm counting the Bulgaria match as a win because it won't happen otherwise)
@Haakon
ReplyDeleteI am not quite sure Montenegro will beat Bulgaria.
Montenegro have deep quality, but there is not wide quality so I do not expect they will continue their 1:0 wins.
@ Confused
ReplyDeleteMontenegro haven't conceded a goal for nearly a year. I watched my England hammer them for 90 minutes solid and they didn't concede. Here are their 100% ranking points results:
Northern Ireland 2-0 (H)
Wales 1-0 (H)
Bulgaria 1-0 (A)
Switzerland 1-0 (H)
England 0-0 (A)
Azerbaijan 2-0 (H)
Uzbekistan 1-0 (H)
They will drop 2 defeats to 50% in the June ranking, so then they will surge up the table. They've got nothing but victories except the draw with England and that match at 2.5X vs 6th in the World is still worth about as much as those friendly wins, so they have a huge score right where it counts in this system at 100%.
It would be nice if England and Montenegro carry on winning I think. That would turn the final match in Podgorica into a nice stress free friendly with the best runner up place already in the bag for the loser thus both teams already qualified.
Edgar, can you please tell me why is this draw so early, not as usual in November an even next year? Some of these doesn't seem logic at all...
ReplyDelete@confused
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure of a Montenegro win either, but my point was that if they don't win, they won't be seeded that high (so their record will be 4-8-3 or 4-7-4 instead, which shouldn't really be worth a second pot but at least that doesn't give the possibility of a group of life)
That record (5-7-3) would be worth about 15 points in a six-team group, by the way. Usually enough for fourth. Admittedly that's a wrong way of looking at it because Montenegro haven't had the opportunity to beat up on minnows yet due to their low seeding so far.
On the list of probable results you guessed that Latvia and Israel would get a tie on June 6th. In the case that Israel would win (and the rest of your guesses stays the same), does Israel has a chance reaching the 2nd pot ?
ReplyDeletewhy have you not considered an international friendly game between Moroco and Botswana which was played in Morocco on March 30th 2011? how are we to trust your method of rating teams if you cant get your facts right? the game ended in a 1 all draw in which the away team, Botswana, would have gained some points if your rating of teams is fair, the game was in the FIFA calender incase you choose to make that an excuse...
ReplyDeleteHey Anonymous (04/12/2011),
ReplyDeletestop making false accusations. Just take a look at the FIFA-list and jou will see that the Morocco-game isn't there anymore.
Edgar's calculations are completely correct. Please take a good look at the calculation-method before make such stupid accusations ! Or better... stop commenting on things you obviously do not have the faintest idea about.
Ed
Hey Anonymous once again.
ReplyDeleteIf you are not satisfied with Edgar's calculations do not offence or do not visit this site.
This calculations are free and "as it is" and there is nobody's obligations to satisfy you.
I am from Montenegro and I's wonderful to see something like this. I just want to ask how is this possible because before last August MNE had very bad results and for draw results from last 4 years counts?
ReplyDelete@ Anonymous from Montenegro
ReplyDeleteLook up to my comment earlier, that should help you out a bit.
Hey Anonymous-Botswana,
ReplyDeletehave you compared Edgar's predicted ranking with the official FIFA-ranking published this morning ? And..... have you got your facts right already ?
Greetings, Ed
@Amir
ReplyDeleteYes, I used the predicted May rankings.
@Lorric
Me too, can't wait to see what the reaction will be if Montenegro are in the first pot.
@Anonymous
The draw was brought forward to allow more time for AFC and CONCACAF.
@Botswana
I already answered (you?) here. Are you Isaac Thobile by any chance? What's with all the angry Batswana?
@Ed
Thanks! :)
@Rest
Scenarios later today - hopefully :)