________________
Next update: 10 June 2011
Quick update to include Qatar - Russia 1 - 1. FIFA decided to keep the match...
The preliminary draw will take place on July 31st, 2011. UEFA will have 13 spots and will use the system with 9 groups.
Assumption:
- FIFA will use the July 2011 FIFA ranking to seed the teams
The July 2011 FIFA ranking will include matches played between July 2007 and July 2011. Only 4 months left - don't expect drastic changes.
UEFA will only use the national team coefficient for the European Championships draws (qualifying and final tournament).
This is the July 2011 ranking (for UEFA only) using matches played up to and including March 29th, 2011 and matches scheduled up to July 2011 (only those on fifa.com).
The "1.0" part is computed this way: points gained / (number of matches played + scheduled).
Netherlands are now on top, but Spain will keep their place anyway since they are holders.
Israel, Belgium and Albania replace Belarus, Lithuania and Scotland in the third pot.
Georgia replace Austria in the fifth pot.
Iceland replace Wales in the sixth pot.
Best movers:
10 - Georgia
9 - Albania
8 - Israel
Worst movers:
-7 - Scotland
-6 - Lithuania and Austria
-5 - Hungary and Belarus
Most points gained:
246 - Netherlands
211 - Israel
199 - Spain
Most points lost:
-22 - Latvia
-20 - Ukraine
-17 - Scotland
Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points
1 2 Netherlands 1573 2 1 Spain 1559 3 3 Germany 1120 4 4 England 1097 5 8 Italy 1023 6 7 Greece 956 7 5 Norway 926 8 6 Croatia 925 9 9 Portugal 919 ----------------------------------- 10 11 Montenegro 867 11 16 Serbia 852 12 10 Russia 839 13 12 France 815 14 15 Denmark 787 15 18 Turkey 775 16 14 Slovenia 757 17 13 Slovakia 742 18 17 Switzerland 724 ----------------------------------- 19 21 Sweden 709 20 19 Czech Republic 703 21 29 Israel 669 22 28 Belgium 648 23 20 Ukraine 607 24 24 Republic of Ireland 597 25 34 Albania 558 26 27 Bulgaria 550 27 22 Hungary 548 ----------------------------------- 28 23 Belarus 543 29 39 Georgia 530 30 35 Bosnia-Herzegovina 529 31 25 Lithuania 526 32 30 Northern Ireland 498 33 26 Scotland 487 34 31 Romania 474 35 36 Armenia 462 36 33 Poland 444 ----------------------------------- 37 31 Austria 442 38 42 Estonia 399 39 38 Cyprus 398 40 40 Moldova 383 41 37 Latvia 380 42 41 Finland 377 43 43 FYR Macedonia 331 44 44 Azerbaijan 282 45 47 Iceland 244 ----------------------------------- 46 45 Wales 223 47 46 Luxembourg 213 48 48 Faroe Islands 156 49 49 Kazakhstan 145 50 50 Liechtenstein 109 51 51 Malta 83 52 52 Andorra 0 52 52 San Marino 0
Please, give us probable results for 2014 UEFA seedings.
ReplyDeleteDid you include them in this seeding?
No, they are not included. I don't have time today. Next Friday.
ReplyDeleteHi Edgar. Is there still any chance for Belarus to climb back to pot 3?
ReplyDeleteThat really depends on your home game against France and how Hungary, Bulgaria and Albania perform in their remaining matches.
ReplyDeleteA more detailed answer on April 8th.
Hi Edgar, if Hungary makes 2 wins against Luxemburg and San Marino in June, and Albania will lost in Sarajevo, it is sure to Hungary will be in the 3rd pot (by the FIFA Rankings), isn't it?
ReplyDeleteAnd when does FIFA decide to use the FIFA Rankings or the UEFA coefficients? I'm afraid of the 2nd pot of France - the big money in the football can't let drawn France with another big team... So maybe they will use the UEFA coefficients..?
Hello Edgar,
ReplyDeletewhy is this draw so soom? It is usualy at the end of year or at beggining of next, after EURO qual. is over.
Wales... *facepalm*
ReplyDeleteNorthern Ireland and Scotland falling too.
Don't tell me they have to depend on Bosnia-Herzegovina to be ejected from the draw to avoid the bottom pot...
Hi Edgar, please could you give us the posible variables for Sweden to enter group 2? Many Thanks.
ReplyDeleteIs Norway secured a top seeding? The Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten is claiming so. But as it's April 1st I have my doubts. Norway have two matches left before the final ranking. Portugal on June 4 and a private vs Lithuania on June 7. I can't understand anything else than that both Montenegro, Serbia, Russia and perhaps even France may surpass Norway if they have the results with them.
ReplyDeleteI'm quite sure Norway will fail during their last matches - especially versus Lithuania. That is, from what I've heard and seen, typical for Norwegian football. The wierd thing about Norway, is that they always lose when meeting supposedly weaker opponents. That is really special, since they're winning agains teams like Portugal, Germany, France, Brasil, etc.
ReplyDeleteI also have to say that I'm not sure if the top seeding is secured. But too me, it looks like (as you wrote) both Montenegro and Serbia have the chance to surpass Norway.
Hi Edgar,
ReplyDeleteseedings without friendlies would be appriciated too...
As far as I calculated in Excel and with these probable results:
ReplyDeletePortugal Norway 1
Norway Lithuania 1
Croatia Georgia 1
Montenegro Bulgaria 1(X)
the ranking will be:
...
Croatia 1031
Montenegro 1002 (905)
Norway 988
...
Let's wait official (Edgar's) results...
Serbia is not playing any matches until September 2011 when they meet Northern Ireland away. The Serbian FA has not yet arranged any friendly matches in June. Don't know if they are going to do that at all.
ReplyDeleteMontenegro, however, is playing Bulgaria in Podgorica in June. As I know how Montenegro is playing, both home and away, be sure that Montenegro is winning this one.
Croatia is meeting Georgia in June, a sure victory for the croatians.
As Portugal are playing Norway in Lisboa, they are probably going to win that match. Portugal will with pass Norway on this list.
This leaves us, i guess, at this ranking:
7 Portugal
8 Croatia
9 Montenegro
-----------------------------------
10 Norway
11 Serbia
With victories for Portugal and Croatia, and loss for Norway, I guess all depands on Montenegro vs. Bulgaria, and Serbia, if they arrange a strong friendly-meeting, and win it. Edgar, please confirm my post! :)
@confused
ReplyDeleteWhere is Portugal on your ranking? They got to be ahead of Norway and Montenegro? If so, Norway is out of top-seeds.
Serbia is not playing any matches until September 2011 when they meet Northern Ireland away. The Serbian FA has not yet arranged any friendly matches in June. Don't know if they are going to do that at all.
ReplyDeleteMontenegro, however, is playing Bulgaria in Podgorica in June. As I know how Montenegro is playing, both home and away, be sure that Montenegro is winning this one.
Croatia is meeting Georgia in June, a sure victory for the croatians.
As Portugal are playing Norway in Lisboa, they are probably going to win that match. Portugal will with pass Norway on this list.
This leaves us, i guess, at this ranking:
7 Portugal
8 Croatia
9 Montenegro
-----------------------------------
10 Norway
11 Serbia
With victories for Portugal and Croatia, and loss for Norway, I guess all depands on Montenegro vs. Bulgaria, and Serbia, if they arrange a strong friendly-meeting, and win it. Edgar, please confirm my post! :)
@confused
Where is Portugal on your ranking? They got to be ahead of Norway and Montenegro? If so, Norway is out of top-seeds.
I didn't calculate Portugal because I expect they will surely beat highly ranked Norway and get many points to be above Croatia and Norway.
ReplyDeleteI calculated only those three teams and Serbia as fourth. My calculations give Serbia total 839 points.
But, I repeat, let's wait Edgar's analyse.
As far as I know Serbia have arranged two freindlies vs. Australia in June down under, but they are not listed at fifa.com
Serbia's 839 points did not include those friendlies.
What a great start for Montenegro! They can reach the first pot!
ReplyDeleteWe could have these two groups:
Death group: Spain, France, Sweden, Romania, Austria, Wales.
Weak group: Greece, Slovenia, Albania, Armenia, Moldova, San Marino.
Juan
@confused
ReplyDeleteYes, you are right about those Serbia vs. Australia-matches. I totally forgot about those...
Anyway, how Serbia is playing lately, I bet Cambodia (no offense!) could beat us, so Australia should have no trouble beating Serbia at home, unbelievable enough.
Could you maybe, if Edgar doesn't, calculate Serbia's point with two wins in Australia, and also with two losses? I'd be grateful :)
I do not know what is happening, but my last two comments disappeared.
ReplyDeleteSo again, this is Excel file I created for calculations. Be free, download, try and check, maybe I missed something or made mistake(s).
bit.ly/fj6WQD
I've just found one mistake, exclude Finland match from 2.6.2007 because it will be dropped in July ranking.
Unfortunately for Serbia it will mean less points for Serbia, and total will be 825 points.
Two wins down under 838 points, two losses 797 points.
@ confused
ReplyDeleteOK, thanks. Anyways, Serbia has got no chance of making it to the first pot. Well, second is good enough :) I hope Montenegro can make it... It would be good to have them as an opponent from the first pot.
Cheers!
Glad Greece only has Malta left to play before end of July, way before the 3 road games or Croatia home game affect their WC ranking/top seed status. Thank you FIFA for making the cutoff so early.
ReplyDeleteI have always wondered what Greece was doing in top 10 on the ranking, and first pots in the draws?! Incredible, the most defensive, beside Rangers and Norway, team in the history, and being ranked so high... Respect.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I'm always hoping to get Greece from first pot, because 3 points in Belgrade are secured, and surely a draw in Athens...
@Anyonymous:
ReplyDelete"Death group: Spain, France, Sweden, Romania, Austria, Wales.
Weak group: Greece, Slovenia, Albania, Armenia, Moldova, San Marino."
You switched Romania and Armenia in your groups, I think.
Source: I'm Romanian and I've watched both Romania and Armenia play.
The probable seeding for UEFA is now available.
ReplyDeleteRegarding chances/scenarios - it will have to wait until next Friday.
The draw takes place so soon to give more time (read match dates) for confederations like AFC and CONCACAF.
@Kjello
Norway haven't secured a top seeding.
@Amir
Next Friday.
@confused
It's Blogger's antispam system. The comment with the Rapid Share link is now displayed.
@confused, Serb
I don't have the time today - next Friday. Sorry.
I can't believe Wales will be in pot 6 next time. We have Gareth Bale and Craig Bellamy (although maybe not for next campaign). And loads of other Premiership players. We shouldn't be in a pot with San Marino, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, etc. No disrespect intended.
ReplyDelete@ Anonymous
ReplyDeleteWales have only beaten Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein in competitive games in the last 4 years. Like it or not, there's a reason they're down there.
@ Anonymous
ReplyDeleteOh, and San Marino as well.