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Friday, April 15, 2011

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): 10000 simulations

Quick note for journalists and bloggers. I noticed that lately some of you tend to use data from my blog without bothering to mention the source. As I mentioned before, you are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info.


I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumptions:
  • Bosnia-Herzegovina will find a solution and escape suspension
  • The July 2011 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams
When you see 100% it means in all the 10000 simulations that team landed in a certain pot. It doesn't automatically mean that team is 100% safe. Next Friday I will publish a post that will explain scenarios and will answer all those "what does my team have to do in order to be in pot X?" questions.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot

Based on these 10000 simulations, these is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova, Poland
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

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6 comments:

  1. JamesApril 15, 2011 at 10:48 PM

    Thanks for that information. Today I found out from FIFA.com that the draw will start at 1500 local time (2000 CEST, 1900 in the UK) on Saturday 30 July in Rio de Janeiro. 204 countries have entered the competition, including Brazil which qualifies automatically.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AnonymousApril 17, 2011 at 8:16 AM

    Poland is pot 5? Dang...

    ReplyDelete
  3. VladimirApril 19, 2011 at 5:59 PM

    Ai idee cam cât de probabile sunt aceste rezultate finale? Am putea să ne bazăm pe aceste simulări pentru a ne da o bună estimare?

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousApril 20, 2011 at 12:44 AM

    What are Irelands chances of getting into pot 2?

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousApril 20, 2011 at 2:18 AM

    Our (ireland's) chances are 0.03% apparently. look at the rest of the post.

    ReplyDelete
  6. EdgarApril 22, 2011 at 10:48 AM

    @Vladimir

    Mai sunt lucruri care se pot schimba: echipele pot anula/programa meciuri amicale. In principiu, te poti baza pe aceste rezultate finale (vezi actualizarea de azi).

    ReplyDelete

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