I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.
Assumptions:
- Bosnia-Herzegovina will find a solution and escape suspension
- The July 2011 FIFA ranking will be used to seed the teams
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by pot (22 April 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (UEFA): Simulation results by team (22 April 2011)
Nine teams are already locked (based on the current list of fixtures on FIFA.com).
Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England and Italy in Pot 1.
Denmark and Serbia in Pot 2.
Andorra and Kazakhstan in Pot 6.
Cyprus appear 100% in Pot 5, but they could also drop to Pot 6 in some very, very unlikely scenarios.
Poland have improved their chances to reach pot 4 by scheduling a friendly against Czech Republic from 30.11% to 46.61%. Somebody had to lose and it's Armenia - their chances of reaching pot 4 dropping from 50.58% to 40.37%. Poland also replace Armenia in Pot 4 (see below).
Based on these 10000 simulations, these is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.
Pot 1: Croatia, England, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain
Pot 2: Denmark, France, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Sweden, Turkey
Pot 3: Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 4: Albania, Austria, Bulgaria, Georgia, Lithuania, Northern Ireland, Poland, Romania, Scotland
Pot 5: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Estonia, Finland, FYR Macedonia, Iceland, Latvia, Moldova
Pot 6: Andorra, Faroe Islands, Kazakhstan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, San Marino, Wales
Hey mate,
ReplyDeleteI've been following this blog religiously for about a year now but have never gotten around to commenting, so I just want to say that what you do is absolutely brilliant! I am the biggest international football fan/freak I know (far prefer international to club) and this site is like my bible.
So, just wanted to say thanks for all the effort, and there is a guy over in Australia who loves your work. Keep it up! :)
ps. do you think CAF or CONCACAF simulations would have significant changes on your pot predictions?
Tottaly agreed! This is awesome dude! Keep up the good work!
ReplyDeleteEdgar,
ReplyDeleteGreat material!
Any interest in doing a similar set of simulations for the CONCACAF WC2014 pots?
Thanks guys! :)
ReplyDeleteThere's no need to do CONCACAF sims since they seem to have chosen the March ranking.
About CAF - I'm not so sure about the format they'll use and frankly, I'm not very interested - the second group stage is where the seeding really makes a difference.