FIFA Ranking: June 2011 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on June 29th.

The deadline for matches was yesterday, but I'm sure FIFA will include at least one match - the Gold Cup final between USA and Mexico.

This is how the totals can change for these two teams:

Mexico (Loss: 913, PSO loss: 944, PSO win: 976, Win: 1007)
USA (Loss: 799, PSO loss: 834, PSO win: 869, Win: 904)

In the table below, the values displayed for these two teams are the lowest possible - even if they lose their totals won't drop.

Lots of movement in the top 10:

CONMEBOL teams lose places (Brazil -2, Argentina -4), with Uruguay out of the top 10 - replaced by Norway. Italy, England, Croatia climb 2 or more places.

Best movers:

39 - Zimbabwe
33 - Liechtenstein
32 - Liberia

Worst movers:

-37 - New Zealand
-20 - Cuba
-19 - Grenada

Best movers in the top 50:

17 - Jamaica
13 - Belarus
11 - Mexico

Mexico can still improve.

Worst movers in the top 50:

-18 - Ghana
-14 - Chile
-11 - Uruguay, Romania and Lithuania

Côte d'Ivoire replace Ghana as the top team in Africa. Burkina Faso replace South Africa in the African top 5.

Mexico replace USA as the top team in CONCACAF. Jamaica overtake Honduras for 3rd. Panama replace Costa Rica in the top 5.

Fiji overtake New Caledonia for 2nd place in OFC.

Italy replace Portugal in the European top 5.

Five teams will improve their best ever ranking

Côte d'Ivoire (13th - 16th in November 2009)
Montenegro (15th - 24th in April 2011)
Central African Republic (91st - 111th in December 2010)
Belize (154th - 157th in May 2002)
Comoros (164th - 171st in May 2010)

Two teams will return to their best ever ranking:

England (4th - first achieved in December 1997)
Burkina Faso (37th - first achieved in October 2010)

Four teams will return to their worst ever ranking:

Bahamas (197th - first happened in March 1999)
Timor-Leste (202nd - first happened in February 2008)
Papua New Guinea (203rd - first happened in July 2009)
San Marino (203rd - first happened in July 2009)

Six teams will have their worst ever ranking:

Colombia (54th - 51st in February 2009)
Saudi Arabia (92nd - 88th in April 2011)
Iceland (122nd - 117th in August 2007)
Lesotho (178th - 177th in April 2011)
Mauritania (183rd - 182nd in May 2003)
Andorra (203rd - 202nd in November 2009)

June 2011 rank - Team - June 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Spain	1871	0	14
2	Netherlands	1661	0	-41
3	Germany	1417	1	4
4	England	1146	2	-17
5	Brazil	1130	-2	-295
6	Italy	1059	3	40
7	Portugal	1046	1	-6
8	Croatia	1033	2	42
9	Argentina	979	-4	-288
10	Norway	972	1	-15
11	Greece	959	1	-26
12	Japan	925	2	-36
13	Côte d'Ivoire	922	8	55
14	France	920	5	37
15	Montenegro	915	9	95
16	Russia	914	2	18
17	Mexico	913	11	111
18	Uruguay	909	-11	-185
19	Sweden	884	9	82
20	Denmark	857	7	49
21	Slovenia	833	-4	-70
22	Australia	829	-2	-47
23	Turkey	820	7	25
24	USA	799	-2	-56
25	Serbia	797	-9	-110
26	Korea Republic	787	5	33
27	Chile	782	-14	-185
28	Slovakia	779	-2	-30
29	Switzerland	778	-4	-41
30	Israel	771	3	62
31	Republic of Ireland	752	3	71
32	Paraguay	743	-9	-104
33	Ghana	735	-18	-183
34	Egypt	727	2	51
35	Belgium	691	2	37
36	Czech Republic	670	-4	-52
37	Burkina Faso	661	7	61
38	Jamaica	656	17	110
39	Bosnia-Herzegovina	642	6	48
40	Belarus	636	13	79
41	Nigeria	635	-2	-2
42	Ukraine	620	-7	-58
43	Senegal	619	-3	6
44	Honduras	613	-1	10
45	Hungary	603	7	44
46	Bulgaria	599	0	7
47	South Africa	597	-9	-56
48	Cameroon	595	1	23
49	Peru	583	5	35
50	Iran	578	-2	3
51	Algeria	575	-10	-34
52	Panama	574	15	81
53	Romania	571	-11	-36
54	Colombia	564	-4	0
55	Costa Rica	561	1	20
56	Georgia	530	1	-6
57	Tunisia	527	4	0
58	Lithuania	526	-11	-51
59	Albania	524	-9	-40
60	Gabon	517	-1	-12
61	Scotland	513	5	-4
62	Northern Ireland	498	3	-22
63	Libya	494	-5	-40
63	Morocco	494	10	49
65	Austria	479	9	36
66	Guinea	475	-4	-49
67	Poland	474	4	25
68	Ecuador	473	-4	-50
69	Venezuela	471	-1	-18
70	Armenia	462	-8	-62
71	Malawi	454	1	8
72	El Salvador	434	15	43
73	Zambia	433	16	50
74	Botswana	431	-5	-48
75	China PR	426	2	-12
76	Finland	419	5	3
77	Uganda	417	7	15
78	Mali	416	-8	-35
79	Estonia	399	-4	-41
80	Cyprus	398	9	15
81	Cape Verde Islands	397	-2	-24
82	Latvia	388	-5	-50
83	Canada	386	-7	-53
84	Jordan	385	9	7
85	Moldova	383	1	-11
86	Uzbekistan	381	-3	-22
87	Benin	380	-7	-38
87	Zimbabwe	380	39	161
89	Haiti	377	7	29
90	Trinidad and Tobago	374	5	21
91	Central African Republic	370	22	107
92	Saudi Arabia	366	-4	-20
93	Bolivia	356	9	44
94	Qatar	355	-2	-25
95	Sierra Leone	348	23	102
96	Iraq	346	-7	-37
97	New Zealand	345	-37	-183
98	FYR Macedonia	338	-13	-60
99	Sudan	337	5	42
100	Niger	331	-1	-4
101	Cuba	330	-20	-86
102	Angola	329	2	34
102	Bahrain	329	-5	-9
102	Gambia	329	1	21
102	Kuwait	329	-1	9
106	Mozambique	327	-12	-31
107	Oman	298	0	4
108	Suriname	296	4	29
109	Syria	290	-5	-5
110	United Arab Emirates	288	1	15
111	Antigua and Barbuda	286	-11	-36
112	Azerbaijan	282	-4	-6
113	Togo	279	-4	-6
114	Faroe Islands	273	22	105
114	Wales	273	0	15
116	Guyana	267	-6	-17
117	Grenada	265	-19	-72
118	Guatemala	262	6	40
119	Korea DPR	255	-4	0
120	Liechtenstein	253	33	137
121	St. Kitts and Nevis	248	-2	3
122	Iceland	244	-6	-10
123	Thailand	239	-3	-3
124	Congo DR	238	2	19
125	Liberia	232	32	139
126	Kazakhstan	231	13	80
126	Tanzania	231	-9	-21
128	Luxembourg	213	-3	-8
129	Kenya	209	-6	-18
130	Congo	206	-9	-26
131	Yemen	199	-2	-4
132	Indonesia	195	-2	-5
133	Dominica	193	-2	0
134	Rwanda	189	-12	-39
135	Tajikistan	180	0	9
136	Ethiopia	169	-8	-49
137	Puerto Rico	167	-5	-13
138	Madagascar	166	0	2
139	Burundi	164	10	37
140	Vietnam	159	-6	-13
141	Barbados	156	-9	-24
142	Singapore	155	2	15
143	Turkmenistan	147	-2	-2
144	Malaysia	146	-1	2
145	Guinea-Bissau	142	-9	-26
146	Hong Kong	141	0	3
147	India	137	-2	-2
148	Nepal	136	-1	1
149	Equatorial Guinea	131	-7	-15
150	Curacao	128	2	7
151	Maldives	126	-3	-7
152	Chad	123	-3	-4
153	Namibia	117	-13	-33
154	Belize	112	18	46
154	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	112	-1	-4
156	Fiji	103	-1	0
157	Swaziland	101	2	12
158	New Caledonia	97	-7	-26
159	Philippines	96	-3	0
160	Cayman Islands	90	-2	0
161	Malta	83	0	-1
161	Nicaragua	83	5	8
163	Bangladesh	81	0	2
164	Comoros	80	24	61
165	Chinese Taipei	77	-5	-9
166	Afghanistan	75	-2	-2
167	Myanmar	72	0	-2
167	Palestine	72	4	5
169	Kyrgyzstan	70	0	0
169	Pakistan	70	-1	-2
171	Sri Lanka	69	-2	-1
172	Dominican Republic	66	0	0
173	Vanuatu	64	-8	-12
174	Cambodia	57	2	1
174	Laos	57	0	0
174	Tahiti	57	0	0
177	Lebanon	55	1	4
178	Lesotho	46	-2	-10
179	Mongolia	41	0	-7
180	Bermuda	40	-18	-40
180	Solomon Islands	40	2	0
182	British Virgin Islands	38	1	0
183	Macau	32	1	0
183	Mauritania	32	-3	-13
185	St. Lucia	31	0	0
186	Eritrea	29	-5	-13
187	Samoa	26	-1	0
188	Somalia	23	-1	0
189	Mauritius	17	0	-1
190	Seychelles	15	4	4
190	Tonga	15	0	-2
192	Turks and Caicos Islands	13	1	0
193	Djibouti	12	-1	-3
193	US Virgin Islands	12	7	9
195	Cook Islands	10	-5	-7
195	Guam	10	0	0
197	Anguilla	9	5	9
197	Bahamas	9	-1	0
197	Brunei Darussalam	9	-1	0
200	Aruba	7	-1	0
201	Bhutan	6	-5	-3
202	Timor-Leste	3	-2	0
203	American Samoa	0	-1	0
203	Andorra	0	-1	0
203	Montserrat	0	-1	0
203	Papua New Guinea	0	-1	0
203	San Marino	0	-1	0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: UEFA pots (24 June 2011)

I don't expect teams will schedule friendlies between now and the July 30 draw, so this is the final version.

Romania and Estonia lost their games, so no changes from last time.

Looking at the May 20 simulations, two teams managed to pull off upsets.

Faroe Islands defeated Estonia and managed to climb in Pot 5 at the expense of Iceland (favorites at that time) and Wales (front runners after defeating Northern Ireland). Wales missed the fifth pot by 0.0691559 points. Faroe Islands have 273.4821429, while Wales have 273.412987. More info on Faroe Islands vs. Wales.

Poland defeated Argentina and managed to overtake Armenia for a place in the fourth pot. In May when I found out Poland were to play Argentina I thought they will end up in the fifth pot as Austria did in 2007. However, Argentina brought a B-team and Poland took the 3 points. With a draw, they would have been in the fifth pot.

1 Spain                    1588
 2 Netherlands              1542
 3 Germany                  1305
 4 England                  1146
 5 Portugal                 1076
 6 Italy                    1059
 7 Croatia                  1033
 8 Norway                    972
 9 Greece                    959
--------------------------------
10 France                    920
11 Montenegro                915
12 Russia                    914
13 Sweden                    884
14 Denmark                   857
15 Slovenia                  833
16 Turkey                    820
17 Serbia                    797
18 Slovakia                  779
--------------------------------
19 Switzerland               778
20 Israel                    771
21 Republic of Ireland       752
22 Belgium                   691
23 Czech Republic            670
24 Bosnia-Herzegovina        642
25 Belarus                   636
26 Ukraine                   620
27 Hungary                   603
--------------------------------
28 Bulgaria                  599
29 Romania                   571
30 Georgia                   530
31 Lithuania                 526
32 Albania                   524
33 Scotland                  513
34 Northern Ireland          498
35 Austria                   479
36 Poland                    474
--------------------------------
37 Armenia                   462
38 Finland                   419
39 Estonia                   399
40 Cyprus                    398
41 Latvia                    388
42 Moldova                   383
43 FYR Macedonia             338
44 Azerbaijan                282
45 Faroe Islands             273
--------------------------------
45 Wales                     273
47 Liechtenstein             253
48 Iceland                   244
49 Kazakhstan                231
50 Luxembourg                213
51 Malta                      83
52 Andorra                     0
52 San Marino                  0

Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Norway, Greece
Pot 2: France, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia
Pot 3: Switzerland, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary
Pot 4: Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia, Lithuania, Albania, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Poland
Pot 5: Armenia, Finland, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Moldova, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands
Pot 6: Wales, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino

Differences compared to the 2010 World Cup seeding:

Best movers (pots):

4 - Montenegro
3 - Slovenia
2 - Norway and Slovakia
1 - England, Denmark, Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belarus, Hungary, Georgia, Albania, Austria, Estonia and Faroe Islands

Worst movers (pots):

-2 - Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Scotland, Poland, Finland and Wales
-1 - France, Israel, Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Moldova, FYR Macedonia, Iceland and Kazakhstan

Differences compared to the EURO 2012 seeding:

Best movers (pots):

3 - Montenegro
2 - Norway and Slovenia
1 - Greece, Belgium, Belarus, Hungary, Georgia, Albania, Azerbaijan and Faroe Islands

Worst movers (pots):

-2 - Romania, Finland and Wales
-1 - France, Russia, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Cyprus, Latvia, FYR Macedonia, Liechtenstein, Iceland and Kazakhstan

Pots based on the Elo Ratings

Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Croatia, Italy, Sweden, France
Pot 2: Republic of Ireland, Russia, Turkey, Norway, Ukraine, Switzerland, Greece, Denmark, Serbia
Pot 3: Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria, Israel, Montenegro, Poland, Slovenia, Scotland, Belgium
Pot 4: Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Slovakia, Belarus, Finland, Austria, Lithuania, Wales, Georgia
Pot 5: FYR Macedonia, Cyprus, Albania, Northern Ireland, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova, Armenia, Iceland
Pot 6: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Faroe Islands, Liechtenstein, Malta, Luxembourg, Andorra, San Marino

Differences compared to the Elo Ratings pots:

2 - Slovakia
1 - Norway, Greece, Montenegro, Slovenia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belarus, Hungary, Albania, Northern Ireland, Azerbaijan and Faroe Islands

-2 - Wales
-1 - France, Sweden, Switzerland, Republic of Ireland, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Scotland, Poland, Finland and Iceland

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: Chinese to gain the most

AFC had to drop their beloved performance based seeding and will use the July FIFA ranking for the group stage draw.

Using the simulation results to determine the teams qualified for the group stage, let's see the teams affected by this change in the seeding procedure.

Pots using the AFC performance based seeding:

Pot 1: Japan, Korea Republic, Australia, Korea DPR, Bahrain
Pot 2: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Qatar, Uzbekistan, United Arab Emirates
Pot 3: Syria, Oman, Jordan, Iraq, Singapore
Pot 4: China PR, Kuwait, Thailand, Turkmenistan, Lebanon

Pots using the FIFA ranking:

Pot 1: Australia, China PR, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, United Arab Emirates
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Lebanon, Singapore, Thailand, Turkmenistan

Moving up:

3 - China PR
1 - Iran, Jordan, Kuwait

Moving down:

-3 - Korea DPR
-1 - Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Singapore

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Australia and 2010 FIFA World Cup seeding

Fans of AFC teams seem to think it's impossible for their teams to be seeded for the final World Cup draw using the FIFA ranking. I'll take Australia as an example since there was recently an article on The Roar (Thanks George Mladenov!) discussing the ranking.

As you may remember, FIFA used the October 2009 ranking to determine the seeds for the final draw (based on feeling, wouldn't you know it...)

Australia were way down in 24th place, 253 points behind the last seed - England. And yet, it would have been possible for them to be seeded.

Let's focus first on competitive matches that Australia didn't win (after the 2007 Asian Cup)

26 Mar 2008 China PR - Australia 0 - 0 (WCQ)
07 Jun 2008 Iraq - Australia 1 - 0 (WCQ)
22 Jun 2008 Australia - China PR 0 - 1 (WCQ)
28 Jan 2009 Indonesia - Australia 0 - 0 (ACQ)
11 Feb 2009 Japan - Australia 0 - 0 (WCQ)
05 Mar 2009 Australia - Kuwait 0 - 1 (WCQ)
06 Jun 2009 Qatar - Australia 0 - 0 (WCQ)

Changing all these matches (with the exception of the one against Japan) to wins, would have taken Australia to 1026 points. Let's look a bit at the friendlies.

Canceling the friendlies against Singapore (0 - 0 on 22 Mar 2008), South Africa (2 - 2 on 19 Aug 2008) and Korea Republic (1 - 3 on 5 Sep 2009) would have taken Australia to 1109 points - 8 more than England.

Possible? Yes. Extremely difficult? Of course. However, FIFA might have kept the performance-ranking combo to determine the seeds, had Australia managed to be in the top 7 in October 2009.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (17 June 2011)

Next update: 8 July 2011.

I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.

Assumption: Indonesia will somehow avoid being suspended by FIFA.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (17 June 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (17 June 2011)

Based on these 10000 simulations, this is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.

Pot 1: Australia, China PR, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, United Arab Emirates
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Lebanon, Singapore, Thailand, Turkmenistan

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (17 June 2011)

Japan: 100.00% in Pot 1
Australia: 100.00% in Pot 1
Korea Republic: 100.00% in Pot 1
Iran: 99.48% in Pot 1, 0.52% eliminated in QR2
China PR: 99.97% in Pot 1, 0.03% eliminated in QR2
Bahrain: 100.00% in Pot 2
Saudi Arabia: 94.56% in Pot 2, 5.44% eliminated in QR2
Qatar: 90.70% in Pot 2, 9.30% eliminated in QR2
Uzbekistan: 97.41% in Pot 2, 2.58% eliminated in QR2, 0.01% in Pot 1
Jordan: 98.69% in Pot 2, 0.77% eliminated in QR2, 0.54% in Pot 1
Kuwait: 81.77% in Pot 3, 17.48% in Pot 2, 0.75% eliminated in QR2
Syria: 83.34% in Pot 3, 16.66% eliminated in QR2
United Arab Emirates: 86.04% in Pot 3, 13.96% eliminated in QR2
Iraq: 91.42% in Pot 3, 7.51% eliminated in QR2, 1.07% in Pot 2
Oman: 98.66% in Pot 3, 1.25% eliminated in QR2, 0.09% in Pot 2
Korea DPR: 53.56% in Pot 4, 46.44% in Pot 3
Lebanon: 89.49% in Pot 4, 10.51% eliminated in QR2
Thailand: 73.27% in Pot 4, 17.64% eliminated in QR2, 9.09% in Pot 3
Turkmenistan: 60.31% in Pot 4, 39.67% eliminated in QR2, 0.02% in Pot 3
Singapore: 59.06% in Pot 4, 40.79% eliminated in QR2, 0.15% in Pot 3
India: 86.04% eliminated in QR2, 13.96% in Pot 4
Hong Kong: 94.56% eliminated in QR2, 5.44% in Pot 4
Maldives: 99.48% eliminated in QR2, 0.52% in Pot 4
Kyrgyzstan: 97.42% eliminated in QR2, 2.58% in Pot 4
Yemen: 92.49% eliminated in QR2, 6.55% in Pot 4, 0.96% in Pot 3
Indonesia: 60.33% eliminated in QR2, 39.39% in Pot 4, 0.28% in Pot 3
Tajikistan: 83.34% eliminated in QR2, 15.68% in Pot 4, 0.98% in Pot 3
Vietnam: 90.12% eliminated in QR2, 9.19% in Pot 4, 0.58% eliminated in QR1, 0.11% in Pot 3
Malaysia: 54.72% eliminated in QR2, 40.17% in Pot 4, 4.57% eliminated in QR1, 0.54% in Pot 3
Palestine: 80.11% eliminated in QR2, 17.59% in Pot 4, 2.30% eliminated in QR1
Nepal: 98.44% eliminated in QR2, 0.79% eliminated in QR1, 0.67% in Pot 4, 0.1% in Pot 3
Philippines: 69.59% eliminated in QR2, 29.76% eliminated in QR1, 0.65% in Pot 4
Myanmar: 89.14% eliminated in QR2, 9.62% eliminated in QR1, 1.24% in Pot 4
Laos: 66.01% eliminated in QR2, 33.96% eliminated in QR1, 0.03% in Pot 4
Cambodia: 66.04% eliminated in QR1, 33.96% eliminated in QR2
Macau: 99.42% eliminated in QR1, 0.58% eliminated in QR2
Timor-Leste: 99.21% eliminated in QR1, 0.79% eliminated in QR2
Chinese Taipei: 95.43% eliminated in QR1, 4.49% eliminated in QR2, 0.08% in Pot 4
Bangladesh: 49.03% eliminated in QR1, 45.19% eliminated in QR2, 5.71% in Pot 4, 0.07% in Pot 3
Afghanistan: 97.70% eliminated in QR1, 2.25% eliminated in QR2, 0.05% in Pot 4
Pakistan: 50.97% eliminated in QR1, 44.30% eliminated in QR2, 4.70% in Pot 4, 0.03 in Pot 3
Sri Lanka: 70.24% eliminated in QR1, 29.66% eliminated in QR2, 0.10% in Pot 4
Mongolia: 90.38% eliminated in QR1, 9.61% eliminated in QR2, 0.01% in Pot 4

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (17 June 2011)

Pot 1

100.00% - Japan
100.00% - Australia
100.00% - Korea Republic
99.97% - China PR
99.48% - Iran
0.54% - Jordan
0.01% - Uzbekistan


Pot 2

100.00% - Bahrain
98.69% - Jordan
97.41% - Uzbekistan
94.56% - Saudi Arabia
90.70% - Qatar
17.48% - Kuwait
1.07% - Iraq
0.09% - Oman

Pot 3

98.66% - Oman
91.42% - Iraq
86.04% - United Arab Emirates
83.34% - Syria
81.77% - Kuwait
46.44% - Korea DPR
9.09% - Thailand
0.98% - Tajikistan
0.96% - Yemen
0.54% - Malaysia
0.28% - Indonesia
0.15% - Singapore
0.11% - Vietnam
0.10% - Nepal
0.07% - Bangladesh
0.03% - Pakistan
0.02% - Turkmenistan

Pot 4

89.49% - Lebanon
73.27% - Thailand
60.31% - Turkmenistan
59.06% - Singapore
53.56% - Korea DPR
40.17% - Malaysia
39.39% - Indonesia
17.59% - Palestine
15.68% - Tajikistan
13.96% - India
9.19% - Vietnam
6.55% - Yemen
5.71% - Bangladesh
5.44% - Hong Kong
4.70% - Pakistan
2.58% - Kyrgyzstan
1.24% - Myanmar
0.67% - Nepal
0.65% - Philippines
0.52% - Maldives
0.10% - Sri Lanka
0.08% - Chinese Taipei
0.05% - Afghanistan
0.03% - Laos
0.01% - Mongolia

Eliminated in the second round

99.48% - Maldives
98.44% - Nepal
97.42% - Kyrgyzstan
94.56% - Hong Kong
92.49% - Yemen
90.12% - Vietnam
89.14% - Myanmar
86.04% - India
83.34% - Tajikistan
80.11% - Palestine
69.59% - Philippines
66.01% - Laos
60.33% - Indonesia
54.72% - Malaysia
45.19% - Bangladesh
44.30% - Pakistan
40.79% - Singapore
39.67% - Turkmenistan
33.96% - Cambodia
29.66% - Sri Lanka
17.64% - Thailand
16.66% - Syria
13.96% - United Arab Emirates
10.51% - Lebanon
9.61% - Mongolia
9.30% - Qatar
7.51% - Iraq
5.44% - Saudi Arabia
4.49% - Chinese Taipei
2.58% - Uzbekistan
2.25% - Afghanistan
1.25% - Oman
0.79% - Timor-Leste
0.77% - Jordan
0.75% - Kuwait
0.58% - Macau
0.52% - Iran
0.03% - China PR

Eliminated in the first round

99.42% - Macau
99.21% - Timor-Leste
97.70% - Afghanistan
95.43% - Chinese Taipei
90.38% - Mongolia
70.24% - Sri Lanka
66.04% - Cambodia
50.97% - Pakistan
49.03% - Bangladesh
33.96% - Laos
29.76% - Philippines
9.62% - Myanmar
4.57% - Malaysia
2.30% - Palestine
0.79% - Nepal
0.58% - Vietnam

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

Goal.com pots are wrong

I've been asked about the Goal.com UEFA pots.

You can read the details regarding the draw in the PDF file from FIFA. It clearly states the July 2011 ranking will be used for seeding.

Goal.com's Livio Caferoglu published the article on June 6th - that's before the June EURO qualifiers were over.

So the pots published by Goal.com are simply based on the May 2011 ranking.

The correct pots are in my previous post. You are of course free to believe Goal.com :)

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: UEFA pots (10 June 2011)

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info. 
________________

Next update: June 24th, 2011.

Only Romania and Estonia can move to a different pot. Albania, although scheduled to play Argentina, are already locked in pot 4 (win or lose).

Romania could still climb to pot 3 with a win against Paraguay tomorrow.

Estonia could still displace Poland in pot 4 with two wins against Chile and Uruguay.

Not very likely to see either happening though.

Wales will be tied for 45th (last place in the 5th pot) with the Faroe Islands. Both teams will have 273 points. Wales' unrounded total is smaller than Faroe Islands' total.

Switzerland will be 1 point behind Slovakia (last team in pot 2), while Bulgaria will be 4 points behind Hungary (last team in pot 3).

Montenegro missed a huge opportunity. They could have been in the first pot with a win against Bulgaria, but managed only a draw.

Rank - Team - Points

1 Spain                    1588
 2 Netherlands              1542
 3 Germany                  1305
 4 England                  1146
 5 Portugal                 1076
 6 Italy                    1059
 7 Croatia                  1033
 8 Norway                    972
 9 Greece                    959
--------------------------------
10 France                    920
11 Montenegro                915
12 Russia                    914
13 Sweden                    884
14 Denmark                   857
15 Slovenia                  833
16 Turkey                    820
17 Serbia                    797
18 Slovakia                  779
--------------------------------
19 Switzerland               778
20 Israel                    771
21 Republic of Ireland       752
22 Belgium                   691
23 Czech Republic            670
24 Bosnia-Herzegovina        642
25 Belarus                   636
26 Ukraine                   620
27 Hungary                   603
--------------------------------
28 Bulgaria                  599
29 Romania                   594
30 Albania                   558
31 Georgia                   530
32 Lithuania                 526
33 Scotland                  513
34 Northern Ireland          498
35 Austria                   479
36 Poland                    474
--------------------------------
37 Armenia                   462
38 Estonia                   437
39 Finland                   419
40 Cyprus                    398
41 Latvia                    388
42 Moldova                   383
43 FYR Macedonia             338
44 Azerbaijan                282
45 Faroe Islands             273
--------------------------------
45 Wales                     273
47 Liechtenstein             253
48 Iceland                   244
49 Kazakhstan                231
50 Luxembourg                213
51 Malta                      83
52 Andorra                     0
52 San Marino                  0

Pot 1: Spain, Netherlands, Germany, England, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, Norway, Greece
Pot 2: France, Montenegro, Russia, Sweden, Denmark, Slovenia, Turkey, Serbia, Slovakia
Pot 3: Switzerland, Israel, Republic of Ireland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary
Pot 4: Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Georgia, Lithuania, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Austria, Poland
Pot 5: Armenia, Estonia, Finland, Cyprus, Latvia, Moldova, FYR Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Faroe Islands
Pot 6: Wales, Liechtenstein, Iceland, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra, San Marino

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: CAF pots (10 June 2011)

You are free to use data from this website as long as you include a link to Football-Rankings.info. 
________________

1 July 2011: See the Namibia update.

________________

Only two matches left involving African teams: Colombia - Senegal and Iran - Madagascar. However, both teams are locked in their respective pots. African teams have to habit of playing often outside the official match dates, so if that happens, I will update the pots.

This is the final July 2011 ranking (based on the current list of fixtures) - only for CAF teams participating in the World Cup qualifiers (that's why you won't see Mauritania).

Rank - Team - Points

1 Côte d'Ivoire            922
 2 Egypt                    738
 3 Ghana                    696
 4 Burkina Faso             661
 5 Nigeria                  635
 6 Senegal                  619
 7 South Africa             597
 8 Cameroon                 595
 9 Algeria                  575
10 Tunisia                  553
-------------------------------
11 Gabon                    517
12 Libya                    494
12 Morocco                  494
14 Guinea                   474
15 Malawi                   459
16 Botswana                 440
17 Zambia                   436
18 Uganda                   417
19 Mali                     416
20 Cape Verde Islands       397
-------------------------------
21 Benin                    380
21 Zimbabwe                 380
23 Central African Republic 370
24 Sierra Leone             348
25 Sudan                    337
26 Niger                    331
27 Gambia                   329
27 Angola                   329
-------------------------------
29 Mozambique               327
30 Congo DR                 240
31 Togo                     238
32 Liberia                  233
33 Tanzania                 231
34 Kenya                    209
35 Congo                    206
36 Rwanda                   190
37 Ethiopia                 169
38 Burundi                  164
39 Madagascar               159
40 Guinea-Bissau            142
-------------------------------
41 Equatorial Guinea        131
42 Chad                     127
43 Namibia                  123
44 Swaziland                 93
45 Comoros                   80
46 Lesotho                   44
47 Eritrea                   29
48 Somalia                   23
49 Djibouti                  12
50 Mauritius                 10
51 Seychelles                 7
52 Sao Tome e Principe        0

So the pots look like this:

Preliminary round:

Pot 1: Mozambique, Congo DR, Togo, Liberia, Tanzania, Kenya, Congo, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Burundi, Madagascar, Guinea-Bissau
Pot 2: Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Namibia, Swaziland, Comoros, Lesotho, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, Mauritius, Seychelles, Sao Tome e Principe

Group stage draw:

Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Cameroon, Algeria, Tunisia
Pot 2: Gabon, Libya, Morocco, Guinea, Malawi, Botswana, Zambia, Uganda, Mali, Cape Verde Islands
Pot 3: Benin, Zimbabwe, Central African Republic, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Niger, Gambia, Angola

The winners of the first two match-ups from the preliminary round (in the order of the draw) will be placed in Pot 3. The other winners will be placed in Pot 4.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: June 2011 preview (III)

Next update: June 24th, 2011.


27 teams can still improve their total points:

Team - Minimum points - Maximum points

Argentina	947	979
Uruguay	877	909
Mexico	734	1019
Chile	720	821
Paraguay	699	768
USA	676	999
Romania	571	615
Senegal	561	614
Honduras	552	814
Costa Rica	550	798
Jamaica	547	852
Colombia	528	613
Albania	524	582
Panama	487	744
Venezuela	458	496
Estonia	399	481
El Salvador	362	613
Canada	342	763
Cuba	330	579
Grenada	265	565
Guatemala	212	565
Malaysia	134	146
Myanmar	72	93
Belize	52	146
US Virgin Islands	3	30
Montserrat	0	132
Anguilla	0	26

In the table below, the value displayed for each of these 27 teams is the lowest possible, so teams' totals can only go up.

June 2011 rank - Team - June 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Spain	1871	0	14
2	Netherlands	1661	0	-41
3	Germany	1417	1	4
4	England	1146	2	-17
5	Brazil	1130	-2	-295
6	Italy	1059	3	40
7	Portugal	1046	1	-6
8	Croatia	1033	2	42
9	Norway	972	2	-15
10	Greece	959	2	-26
11	Argentina	947	-6	-320
12	Japan	925	2	-36
13	Côte d'Ivoire	922	8	55
14	France	920	5	37
15	Montenegro	915	9	95
16	Russia	914	2	18
17	Sweden	884	11	82
18	Uruguay	877	-11	-217
19	Denmark	857	8	49
20	Slovenia	833	-3	-70
21	Australia	829	-1	-47
22	Turkey	820	8	25
23	Serbia	797	-7	-110
24	Korea Republic	787	7	33
25	Slovakia	779	1	-30
26	Switzerland	778	-1	-41
27	Israel	771	6	62
28	Republic of Ireland	752	6	71
29	Ghana	735	-14	-183
30	Mexico	734	-2	-68
31	Egypt	727	5	51
32	Chile	720	-19	-247
33	Paraguay	699	-10	-148
34	Belgium	691	3	37
35	USA	676	-13	-179
36	Czech Republic	670	-4	-52
37	Burkina Faso	661	7	61
38	Bosnia-Herzegovina	642	7	48
39	Belarus	636	14	79
40	Nigeria	635	-1	-2
41	Ukraine	620	-6	-58
42	Hungary	603	10	44
43	Bulgaria	599	3	7
44	South Africa	597	-6	-56
45	Cameroon	595	4	23
46	Peru	583	8	35
47	Iran	578	1	3
48	Algeria	575	-7	-34
49	Romania	571	-7	-36
50	Senegal	561	-10	-52
51	Honduras	552	-8	-51
52	Costa Rica	550	4	9
53	Jamaica	547	2	1
54	Georgia	530	3	-6
55	Colombia	528	-5	-36
56	Tunisia	527	5	0
57	Lithuania	526	-10	-51
58	Albania	524	-8	-40
59	Gabon	517	0	-12
60	Scotland	513	6	-4
61	Northern Ireland	498	4	-22
62	Libya	494	-4	-40
62	Morocco	494	11	49
64	Panama	487	3	-6
65	Austria	479	9	36
66	Guinea	475	-4	-49
67	Poland	474	4	25
68	Ecuador	473	-4	-50
69	Armenia	462	-7	-62
70	Venezuela	458	-2	-31
71	Malawi	454	1	8
72	Zambia	433	17	50
73	Botswana	431	-4	-48
74	China PR	426	3	-12
75	Finland	419	6	3
76	Uganda	417	8	15
77	Mali	416	-7	-35
78	Estonia	399	-3	-41
79	Cyprus	398	10	15
80	Cape Verde Islands	397	-1	-24
81	Latvia	388	-4	-50
82	Jordan	385	11	7
83	Moldova	383	3	-11
84	Uzbekistan	381	-1	-22
85	Benin	380	-5	-38
85	Zimbabwe	380	41	161
87	Haiti	377	9	29
88	Trinidad and Tobago	374	7	21
89	Central African Republic	370	24	107
90	Saudi Arabia	366	-2	-20
91	El Salvador	362	-4	-29
92	Bolivia	356	10	44
93	Qatar	355	-1	-25
94	Sierra Leone	348	24	102
95	Iraq	346	-6	-37
96	New Zealand	345	-36	-183
97	Canada	342	-21	-97
98	FYR Macedonia	338	-13	-60
99	Sudan	337	5	42
100	Niger	331	-1	-4
101	Cuba	330	-20	-86
102	Angola	329	2	34
102	Bahrain	329	-5	-9
102	Gambia	329	1	21
102	Kuwait	329	-1	9
106	Mozambique	327	-12	-31
107	Oman	298	0	4
108	Suriname	296	4	29
109	Syria	290	-5	-5
110	United Arab Emirates	288	1	15
111	Antigua and Barbuda	286	-11	-36
112	Azerbaijan	282	-4	-6
113	Togo	279	-4	-6
114	Faroe Islands	273	22	105
114	Wales	273	0	15
116	Guyana	267	-6	-17
117	Grenada	265	-19	-72
118	Korea DPR	255	-3	0
119	Liechtenstein	253	34	137
120	St. Kitts and Nevis	248	-1	3
121	Iceland	244	-5	-10
122	Thailand	239	-2	-3
123	Congo DR	238	3	19
124	Liberia	232	33	139
125	Kazakhstan	231	14	80
125	Tanzania	231	-8	-21
127	Luxembourg	213	-2	-8
128	Guatemala	212	-4	-10
129	Kenya	209	-6	-18
130	Congo	206	-9	-26
131	Yemen	199	-2	-4
132	Indonesia	195	-2	-5
133	Dominica	193	-2	0
134	Rwanda	189	-12	-39
135	Tajikistan	180	0	9
136	Ethiopia	169	-8	-49
137	Puerto Rico	167	-5	-13
138	Madagascar	166	0	2
139	Burundi	164	10	37
140	Vietnam	159	-6	-13
141	Barbados	156	-9	-24
142	Turkmenistan	147	-1	-2
143	Guinea-Bissau	142	-7	-26
143	Singapore	142	1	2
145	Hong Kong	141	1	3
146	India	137	-1	-2
147	Nepal	136	0	1
148	Malaysia	134	-5	-10
149	Equatorial Guinea	131	-7	-15
150	Curacao	128	2	7
151	Maldives	126	-3	-7
152	Chad	123	-3	-4
153	Namibia	117	-13	-33
154	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	112	-1	-4
155	Fiji	103	0	0
156	Swaziland	101	3	12
157	New Caledonia	97	-6	-26
158	Philippines	96	-2	0
159	Cayman Islands	90	-1	0
160	Malta	83	1	-1
160	Nicaragua	83	6	8
162	Bangladesh	81	1	2
163	Comoros	80	25	61
164	Chinese Taipei	77	-4	-9
165	Afghanistan	75	-1	-2
166	Myanmar	72	1	-2
166	Palestine	72	5	5
168	Kyrgyzstan	70	1	0
168	Pakistan	70	0	-2
170	Sri Lanka	69	-1	-1
171	Dominican Republic	66	1	0
172	Vanuatu	64	-7	-12
173	Cambodia	57	3	1
173	Laos	57	1	0
173	Tahiti	57	1	0
176	Lebanon	55	2	4
177	Belize	52	-5	-14
178	Lesotho	46	-2	-10
179	Mongolia	41	0	-7
180	Bermuda	40	-18	-40
180	Solomon Islands	40	2	0
182	British Virgin Islands	38	1	0
183	Macau	32	1	0
183	Mauritania	32	-3	-13
185	St. Lucia	31	0	0
186	Eritrea	29	-5	-13
187	Samoa	26	-1	0
188	Somalia	23	-1	0
189	Mauritius	17	0	-1
190	Seychelles	15	4	4
190	Tonga	15	0	-2
192	Turks and Caicos Islands	13	1	0
193	Djibouti	12	-1	-3
194	Cook Islands	10	-4	-7
194	Guam	10	1	0
196	Bahamas	9	0	0
196	Brunei Darussalam	9	0	0
198	Aruba	7	1	0
199	Bhutan	6	-3	-3
200	Timor-Leste	3	0	0
200	US Virgin Islands	3	0	0
202	American Samoa	0	0	0
202	Andorra	0	0	0
202	Anguilla	0	0	0
202	Montserrat	0	0	0
202	Papua New Guinea	0	0	0
202	San Marino	0	0	0

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.