BBC mentioned me again in one of their articles. The reaction in Wales was, well, not very benign.
Geek, mega-nerd, give him a smack, "I don't like you" and obviously the F-word salutation. :)
Apparently it's my fault Wales are in pot 6.
Couple of things to point out.
1. The newspapers said FIFA made an error. This is not 100% correct. We will never know if FIFA would have actually placed Wales in Pot 5.
2. I would have written similar articles if the situation would have been the other way around (i.e. Wales wrongly displayed below the Faroe Islands in the rankings).
3. I wrote to FAW on May 27 telling them they are in danger of falling in Pot 6. Actually, I wrote to all (yes, all) UEFA/CAF associations about the pots as soon as their team were locked in a pot.
4. Wales would have needed only a win against American Samoa in June or July in order to climb in Pot 5 at the expense of the Faroe Islands.
5. Wales could have asked me what they need to do to avoid Pot 6.
6. Who knows, maybe Wales and Faroe Islands will be in same group. Happened four years ago with Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein.
P.S. Something good came out of the BBC article. I got a job offer in London thanks to it. Won't be going though.
Friday, July 29, 2011
Mozambique ponder what could have been
Well, they don't actually ponder, I do :)
FIFA's schedule states the deadline for matches to be included in the ranking calculation is on the Thursday prior to the release date.
They usually include matches played after the deadline, especially competitive matches. However, last month they've also included a friendly played on Saturday, 25 June: Kenya - Sudan 1 - 2.
Liberia defeated Gambia on Sunday, 24 July, but FIFA chose not to include it in the July ranking calculation. If this match would have been included, Gambia would have dropped from Pot 3 to Pot 5 (and forced to play in Round 1), while Mozambique would have taken their place.
See the official CAF pots.
FIFA's schedule states the deadline for matches to be included in the ranking calculation is on the Thursday prior to the release date.
They usually include matches played after the deadline, especially competitive matches. However, last month they've also included a friendly played on Saturday, 25 June: Kenya - Sudan 1 - 2.
Liberia defeated Gambia on Sunday, 24 July, but FIFA chose not to include it in the July ranking calculation. If this match would have been included, Gambia would have dropped from Pot 3 to Pot 5 (and forced to play in Round 1), while Mozambique would have taken their place.
See the official CAF pots.
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: Official pots
FIFA have published the official pot allocations for the 2014 FIFA World Cup preliminary draw.
Pot allocations for the Brazil 2014 Preliminary Draw (PDF file).
Pot allocations for the Brazil 2014 Preliminary Draw (PDF file).
Panama protest
Panama FA (FEPAFUT) have published an official protest on their website:
Panamá protesta por el Ranking FIFA utilizado para sorteo del Mundial Brasil 2014
Also, read Julio Dely Valdés (Panama NT manager) take on this:
Es injusto para Panamá
As mentioned in this post, if the July ranking would have been used Jamaica, Panama, Antigua and Barbuda, Suriname would all climb one pot, while Honduras, Cuba, Haiti and Grenada would drop one pot.
Panamá protesta por el Ranking FIFA utilizado para sorteo del Mundial Brasil 2014
Also, read Julio Dely Valdés (Panama NT manager) take on this:
Es injusto para Panamá
As mentioned in this post, if the July ranking would have been used Jamaica, Panama, Antigua and Barbuda, Suriname would all climb one pot, while Honduras, Cuba, Haiti and Grenada would drop one pot.
OFC and sporting reasons
In Oceania, the four lowest-ranked Member Associations (based on the FIFA/Coca-Cola Ranking of July 2011, and for sporting reasons) will contest Round One.
Source: FIFA.com
The four lowest-ranked teams in OFC are: Tonga (192), Cook Islands (195), American Samoa (203) and Papua New Guinea (unranked). However, Papua New Guinea were given a bye to Round Two - being placed in second pot, at the expense at Samoa (7th in OFC).
Wikipedia says Round One will probably be staged by Samoa (no reference though) and probably that's what "sporting reasons" means.
Thanks Andrew Culshaw for pointing this out.
Source: FIFA.com
The four lowest-ranked teams in OFC are: Tonga (192), Cook Islands (195), American Samoa (203) and Papua New Guinea (unranked). However, Papua New Guinea were given a bye to Round Two - being placed in second pot, at the expense at Samoa (7th in OFC).
Wikipedia says Round One will probably be staged by Samoa (no reference though) and probably that's what "sporting reasons" means.
Thanks Andrew Culshaw for pointing this out.
Namibia FA using info from my blog
I must be moving up in the world. Namibia FA used info from my blog recently. It would have been nice to also mention the source though.
See this article:
Namibia poised for favourable draw for 2014 World Cup
The pots are copied from this post:
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: CAF pots (8 July 2011)
See this article:
Namibia poised for favourable draw for 2014 World Cup
The pots are copied from this post:
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: CAF pots (8 July 2011)
Friday, July 22, 2011
2014 World Cup seeding: What if?
Wales' choice of not using the June FIFA match dates was a mistake. With a win against any team in the World (how about American Samoa - surely they would have flown to Cardiff in an instant) they would have been in Pot 5, above the Faroe Islands. Read more to see why.
Some teams could have climbed to a higher pot by scheduling and winning a friendly in June/July. In some cases a draw would have been enough.
Let's look at Europe first.
Team - Points needed to climb to a higher pot - Current pot
Based on the May ranking (used for games played in June) and June ranking (used for games played in July) and choosing the weakest opponent (based on the Elo Rating), this is what the above table actually means:
Switzerland - a win against Mozambique (in June) or Central African Republic (in July).
Israel - a win against Slovakia.
Bulgaria - a win against Cuba (in June) or Zimbabwe (in July).
Armenia - a win against Algeria (in June) or Georgia (in July)
Wales - a win against American Samoa or a draw against Grenada (in June) or Suriname (in July).
Iceland - a win against Grenada (in June) or Sierra Leone (in July).
Liechtenstein - a win against Armenia.
Kazakhstan - a win against Slovenia.
On to Africa:
Team - Points needed to climb to a higher pot - Current pot
Based on the May ranking (used for games played in June) and June ranking (used for games played in July) and choosing the weakest opponent (based on the Elo Rating), this is what the above table actually means:
Gabon - a win against Algeria (in June)/Georgia (in July).
Benin - a win against Grenada (in June)/Sierra Leone (in July).
Zimbabwe - a win against Armenia.
Central African Republic - a win against Italy.
Mozambique - a win against Puerto Rico (in June) or Dominica (in July) or a draw against Slovenia (in June)/Montenegro (in July).
Liberia - a win against Slovakia (in June)/Slovenia (in July).
Equatorial Guinea - a win against American Samoa or a draw against Luxembourg.
Guinea-Bissau - a win against Puerto Rico or a draw against Lithuania (in June) or Belarus (in July).
Chad - a win against Puerto Rico (in June) or Dominica (in July) or a draw against Slovenia.
Comoros - a win against Slovakia (in June)/Belarus (in July).
Lesotho - a win against Slovenia.
Swaziland - a win against Uruguay (in June)/Italy (in July)
Some teams could have climbed to a higher pot by scheduling and winning a friendly in June/July. In some cases a draw would have been enough.
Let's look at Europe first.
Team - Points needed to climb to a higher pot - Current pot
| Switzerland | 293.36 | 3 |
| Israel | 486.63 | 3 |
| Bulgaria | 309.42 | 4 |
| Armenia | 429.60 | 5 |
| Wales | 82.37 | 6 |
| Iceland | 282.88 | 6 |
| Liechtenstein | 378.29 | 6 |
| Kazakhstan | 531.97 | 6 |
Based on the May ranking (used for games played in June) and June ranking (used for games played in July) and choosing the weakest opponent (based on the Elo Rating), this is what the above table actually means:
Switzerland - a win against Mozambique (in June) or Central African Republic (in July).
Israel - a win against Slovakia.
Bulgaria - a win against Cuba (in June) or Zimbabwe (in July).
Armenia - a win against Algeria (in June) or Georgia (in July)
Wales - a win against American Samoa or a draw against Grenada (in June) or Suriname (in July).
Iceland - a win against Grenada (in June) or Sierra Leone (in July).
Liechtenstein - a win against Armenia.
Kazakhstan - a win against Slovenia.
On to Africa:
Team - Points needed to climb to a higher pot - Current pot
| Gabon | 398.45 | 2 |
| Benin | 241.39 | 3 |
| Zimbabwe | 347.11 | 3 |
| Central African Republic | 532.51 | 3 |
| Mozambique | 168.00 | 4 |
| Liberia | 481.71 | 4 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 65.65 | 5 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 140.59 | 5 |
| Chad | 165.89 | 5 |
| Comoros | 442.36 | 5 |
| Lesotho | 496.47 | 5 |
| Swaziland | 534.69 | 5 |
Based on the May ranking (used for games played in June) and June ranking (used for games played in July) and choosing the weakest opponent (based on the Elo Rating), this is what the above table actually means:
Gabon - a win against Algeria (in June)/Georgia (in July).
Benin - a win against Grenada (in June)/Sierra Leone (in July).
Zimbabwe - a win against Armenia.
Central African Republic - a win against Italy.
Mozambique - a win against Puerto Rico (in June) or Dominica (in July) or a draw against Slovenia (in June)/Montenegro (in July).
Liberia - a win against Slovakia (in June)/Slovenia (in July).
Equatorial Guinea - a win against American Samoa or a draw against Luxembourg.
Guinea-Bissau - a win against Puerto Rico or a draw against Lithuania (in June) or Belarus (in July).
Chad - a win against Puerto Rico (in June) or Dominica (in July) or a draw against Slovenia.
Comoros - a win against Slovakia (in June)/Belarus (in July).
Lesotho - a win against Slovenia.
Swaziland - a win against Uruguay (in June)/Italy (in July)
FIFA Ranking: July 2011 final preview
FIFA Ranking: July 2011 final preview
FIFA will publish the ranking on July 27th. The deadline for matches was yesterday, but I'm sure FIFA will include at least two more matches: the Copa America final (Uruguay - Paraguay) and 3rd place match (Peru - Venezuela).
This is how the totals can change for these two teams:
Uruguay (Loss: 1055, PSO Loss: 1089, PSO Win: 1122, Win: 1156)
Paraguay (Loss: 804, PSO Loss: 833, PSO Win: 862, Win: 891)
Peru (Loss: 726, PSO Loss: 756, PSO Win: 787, Win: 817)
Venezuela (Loss: 648, PSO Loss: 670, PSO Win: 691, Win: 713)
FIFA could also include the first leg of the AFC FIFA World Cup second preliminary round. However, I think that is unlikely.
In the table below, the values displayed for these two teams are the lowest possible - even if they lose their totals won't drop.
Papua New Guinea will disappear from the ranking - no matches in the last 4 years.
Uruguay climb 10 places (at least) and return to the top 10. With a win against Uruguay they will climb to 5th. Mexico drop out of the top 10, losing 11 places.
Best movers:
45 - Bahamas
44 - US Virgin Islands
40 - Dominican Republic
Worst movers:
-28 - Haiti
-21 - Canada
-16 - Nicaragua
Best movers in the top 50:
29 - Venezuela
19 - Colombia
16 - Chile
Peru and/or Paraguay could also join this list. Venezuela can still improve.
Worst movers in the top 50:
-11 - Mexico
-7 - Honduras
-6 - Jamaica
Mexico could drop one extra spot should Paraguay win the Copa America avoinding PSO.
Egypt replace Ghana as 2nd in Africa.
Costa Rica replace Panama as 5th in CONCACAF.
Uruguay replace Argentina as 2nd in CONMEBOL. Peru could climb in the top 5 with a win against Venezuela and a defeat for Paraguay against Uruguay in the Copa America final.
Solomon Islands replace Tahiti in OFC's top 5.
Portugal replace Italy as 5th in Europe.
Five teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Venezuela (40th - 47th in February 2010)
Central African Republic (89th - 91st in June 2011)
Belize (148th - 154th in June 2011)
US Virgin Islands (149th - 190th in April 1999)
Mongolia (162nd - 170th in November 2009)
Two teams will return to their best ever ranking:
Peru (34th - first achieved in September 1997)
Liechtenstein (118th - first achieved in January 2008)
Bermuda will return to their worst ever ranking, 185th, first happened in December 1998.
Ten teams will drop to their worst ever ranking:
Saudi Arabia (94th - 92nd in June 2011)
Canada (104th - 103rd in March 2007)
Malta (172nd - 169th in November 2010)
Sri Lanka (176th - 173rd in March 2011)
Kyrgyzstan (178th - 176th in November 2010)
Lebanon (182nd - 178th in April 2011)
Lesotho (184th - 178th in June 2011)
Mauritania (187th - 183rd in June 2011)
Mauritius (195th - 193rd in September 2010)
Seychelles (199th - 196th in October 2010)
July 2011 rank - Team - July 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
FIFA will publish the ranking on July 27th. The deadline for matches was yesterday, but I'm sure FIFA will include at least two more matches: the Copa America final (Uruguay - Paraguay) and 3rd place match (Peru - Venezuela).
This is how the totals can change for these two teams:
Uruguay (Loss: 1055, PSO Loss: 1089, PSO Win: 1122, Win: 1156)
Paraguay (Loss: 804, PSO Loss: 833, PSO Win: 862, Win: 891)
Peru (Loss: 726, PSO Loss: 756, PSO Win: 787, Win: 817)
Venezuela (Loss: 648, PSO Loss: 670, PSO Win: 691, Win: 713)
FIFA could also include the first leg of the AFC FIFA World Cup second preliminary round. However, I think that is unlikely.
In the table below, the values displayed for these two teams are the lowest possible - even if they lose their totals won't drop.
Papua New Guinea will disappear from the ranking - no matches in the last 4 years.
Uruguay climb 10 places (at least) and return to the top 10. With a win against Uruguay they will climb to 5th. Mexico drop out of the top 10, losing 11 places.
Best movers:
45 - Bahamas
44 - US Virgin Islands
40 - Dominican Republic
Worst movers:
-28 - Haiti
-21 - Canada
-16 - Nicaragua
Best movers in the top 50:
29 - Venezuela
19 - Colombia
16 - Chile
Peru and/or Paraguay could also join this list. Venezuela can still improve.
Worst movers in the top 50:
-11 - Mexico
-7 - Honduras
-6 - Jamaica
Mexico could drop one extra spot should Paraguay win the Copa America avoinding PSO.
Egypt replace Ghana as 2nd in Africa.
Costa Rica replace Panama as 5th in CONCACAF.
Uruguay replace Argentina as 2nd in CONMEBOL. Peru could climb in the top 5 with a win against Venezuela and a defeat for Paraguay against Uruguay in the Copa America final.
Solomon Islands replace Tahiti in OFC's top 5.
Portugal replace Italy as 5th in Europe.
Five teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Venezuela (40th - 47th in February 2010)
Central African Republic (89th - 91st in June 2011)
Belize (148th - 154th in June 2011)
US Virgin Islands (149th - 190th in April 1999)
Mongolia (162nd - 170th in November 2009)
Two teams will return to their best ever ranking:
Peru (34th - first achieved in September 1997)
Liechtenstein (118th - first achieved in January 2008)
Bermuda will return to their worst ever ranking, 185th, first happened in December 1998.
Ten teams will drop to their worst ever ranking:
Saudi Arabia (94th - 92nd in June 2011)
Canada (104th - 103rd in March 2007)
Malta (172nd - 169th in November 2010)
Sri Lanka (176th - 173rd in March 2011)
Kyrgyzstan (178th - 176th in November 2010)
Lebanon (182nd - 178th in April 2011)
Lesotho (184th - 178th in June 2011)
Mauritania (187th - 183rd in June 2011)
Mauritius (195th - 193rd in September 2010)
Seychelles (199th - 196th in October 2010)
July 2011 rank - Team - July 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Spain | 1588 | 0 | -283 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 1542 | 0 | -119 |
| 3 | Germany | 1305 | 0 | -112 |
| 4 | Brazil | 1202 | 1 | 72 |
| 5 | England | 1146 | -1 | 0 |
| 6 | Portugal | 1076 | 1 | 30 |
| 7 | Italy | 1059 | -1 | 0 |
| 8 | Uruguay | 1055 | 10 | 146 |
| 9 | Croatia | 1033 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Argentina | 1013 | 0 | 34 |
| 11 | Chile | 973 | 16 | 191 |
| 12 | Norway | 972 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Greece | 959 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Côte d'Ivoire | 922 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | France | 920 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Japan | 918 | -3 | -7 |
| 17 | Montenegro | 915 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Russia | 914 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Sweden | 884 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Mexico | 869 | -11 | -138 |
| 21 | Denmark | 857 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Slovenia | 833 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Australia | 831 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 | Turkey | 820 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Paraguay | 804 | 7 | 61 |
| 26 | Serbia | 797 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Korea Republic | 781 | -1 | -6 |
| 28 | Slovakia | 779 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 | Switzerland | 778 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 | USA | 778 | -5 | -21 |
| 31 | Israel | 771 | -1 | 0 |
| 32 | Republic of Ireland | 752 | -1 | 0 |
| 33 | Egypt | 736 | 1 | 9 |
| 34 | Peru | 726 | 15 | 143 |
| 35 | Colombia | 707 | 19 | 143 |
| 36 | Ghana | 696 | -3 | -39 |
| 37 | Belgium | 691 | -2 | 0 |
| 38 | Czech Republic | 670 | -2 | 0 |
| 39 | Burkina Faso | 661 | -2 | 0 |
| 40 | Venezuela | 648 | 29 | 177 |
| 41 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 642 | -2 | 0 |
| 42 | Belarus | 636 | -2 | 0 |
| 43 | Nigeria | 635 | -2 | 0 |
| 44 | Jamaica | 632 | -6 | -24 |
| 45 | Ukraine | 620 | -3 | 0 |
| 46 | Senegal | 619 | -3 | 0 |
| 47 | Hungary | 603 | -2 | 0 |
| 48 | Bulgaria | 599 | -2 | 0 |
| 49 | South Africa | 597 | -2 | 0 |
| 50 | Cameroon | 595 | -2 | 0 |
| 51 | Honduras | 592 | -7 | -21 |
| 52 | Algeria | 575 | -1 | 0 |
| 53 | Romania | 571 | 0 | 0 |
| 54 | Iran | 560 | -4 | -18 |
| 55 | Tunisia | 553 | 2 | 26 |
| 56 | Costa Rica | 532 | -1 | -29 |
| 57 | Georgia | 530 | -1 | 0 |
| 58 | Lithuania | 526 | 0 | 0 |
| 59 | Albania | 524 | 0 | 0 |
| 60 | Gabon | 517 | 0 | 0 |
| 61 | Scotland | 513 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | Northern Ireland | 498 | 0 | 0 |
| 63 | Libya | 494 | 0 | 0 |
| 63 | Morocco | 494 | 0 | 0 |
| 65 | Panama | 487 | -13 | -87 |
| 66 | Austria | 479 | -1 | 0 |
| 67 | Ecuador | 478 | 1 | 5 |
| 68 | Guinea | 475 | -2 | 0 |
| 69 | Poland | 474 | -2 | 0 |
| 70 | Armenia | 462 | 0 | 0 |
| 71 | Botswana | 440 | 3 | 9 |
| 72 | Malawi | 439 | -1 | -15 |
| 73 | Zambia | 436 | -1 | 2 |
| 74 | China PR | 431 | 1 | 5 |
| 75 | Finland | 419 | 1 | 0 |
| 76 | Uganda | 417 | 1 | 0 |
| 77 | Mali | 416 | 1 | 0 |
| 78 | El Salvador | 401 | -6 | -33 |
| 79 | Estonia | 399 | 0 | 0 |
| 80 | Bolivia | 398 | 13 | 42 |
| 80 | Cyprus | 398 | 0 | 0 |
| 82 | Cape Verde Islands | 397 | -1 | 0 |
| 83 | Latvia | 388 | -1 | 0 |
| 84 | Moldova | 383 | 1 | 0 |
| 85 | Uzbekistan | 381 | 1 | 0 |
| 86 | Benin | 380 | 1 | 0 |
| 86 | Zimbabwe | 380 | 1 | 0 |
| 88 | Trinidad and Tobago | 379 | 2 | 5 |
| 89 | Central African Republic | 370 | 2 | 0 |
| 90 | Qatar | 359 | 4 | 4 |
| 91 | Jordan | 354 | -7 | -31 |
| 92 | Sierra Leone | 348 | 3 | 0 |
| 93 | New Zealand | 345 | 4 | 0 |
| 94 | Saudi Arabia | 342 | -2 | -24 |
| 95 | FYR Macedonia | 338 | 3 | 0 |
| 96 | Kuwait | 334 | 6 | 5 |
| 97 | Sudan | 333 | 2 | 0 |
| 98 | Niger | 331 | 2 | 0 |
| 99 | Cuba | 330 | 2 | 0 |
| 100 | Angola | 329 | 2 | 0 |
| 100 | Bahrain | 329 | 2 | 0 |
| 100 | Gambia | 329 | 2 | 0 |
| 103 | Mozambique | 327 | 3 | 0 |
| 104 | Canada | 314 | -21 | -73 |
| 105 | Antigua and Barbuda | 308 | 6 | 22 |
| 105 | Syria | 308 | 4 | 18 |
| 107 | Suriname | 296 | 1 | 0 |
| 108 | Oman | 294 | -1 | -4 |
| 109 | Iraq | 292 | -13 | -54 |
| 110 | United Arab Emirates | 285 | 0 | -3 |
| 111 | Azerbaijan | 282 | 1 | 0 |
| 112 | Faroe Islands | 273 | 2 | 0 |
| 112 | Wales | 273 | 2 | 0 |
| 114 | Guyana | 269 | 2 | 2 |
| 115 | Guatemala | 260 | 3 | -2 |
| 115 | Korea DPR | 260 | 4 | 5 |
| 117 | Haiti | 256 | -28 | -121 |
| 118 | Liechtenstein | 253 | 2 | 0 |
| 119 | Grenada | 246 | -2 | -19 |
| 120 | Iceland | 244 | 2 | 0 |
| 121 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 243 | 0 | -5 |
| 122 | Congo DR | 238 | 2 | 0 |
| 122 | Togo | 238 | -9 | -41 |
| 124 | Liberia | 232 | 1 | 0 |
| 125 | Kazakhstan | 231 | 1 | 0 |
| 126 | Tanzania | 230 | 1 | 0 |
| 127 | Thailand | 226 | -4 | -13 |
| 128 | Luxembourg | 213 | 0 | 0 |
| 129 | Congo | 206 | 0 | 0 |
| 130 | Kenya | 204 | 0 | 0 |
| 131 | Nepal | 203 | 17 | 67 |
| 132 | Dominican Republic | 198 | 40 | 132 |
| 133 | Dominica | 193 | 0 | 0 |
| 133 | Yemen | 193 | -2 | -6 |
| 135 | Rwanda | 190 | -1 | 1 |
| 136 | Indonesia | 182 | -4 | -13 |
| 137 | Tajikistan | 180 | -2 | 0 |
| 138 | Ethiopia | 170 | -2 | 0 |
| 138 | Vietnam | 170 | 2 | 11 |
| 140 | Namibia | 168 | 13 | 51 |
| 141 | Puerto Rico | 167 | -4 | 0 |
| 142 | Bangladesh | 166 | 21 | 85 |
| 142 | Singapore | 166 | 0 | 11 |
| 144 | Burundi | 164 | -5 | 0 |
| 145 | Malaysia | 162 | -1 | 16 |
| 146 | Barbados | 156 | -5 | 0 |
| 147 | Turkmenistan | 147 | -4 | 0 |
| 148 | Belize | 146 | 6 | 34 |
| 149 | Madagascar | 144 | -11 | -22 |
| 149 | US Virgin Islands | 144 | 44 | 132 |
| 151 | Guinea-Bissau | 142 | -6 | 0 |
| 152 | Bahamas | 141 | 45 | 132 |
| 152 | Hong Kong | 141 | -6 | 0 |
| 154 | India | 138 | -7 | 1 |
| 155 | Equatorial Guinea | 131 | -6 | 0 |
| 156 | Fiji | 129 | 0 | 26 |
| 157 | Curacao | 128 | -7 | 0 |
| 158 | Chad | 127 | -6 | 4 |
| 159 | Maldives | 123 | -8 | -3 |
| 160 | Philippines | 112 | -1 | 16 |
| 160 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 112 | -6 | 0 |
| 162 | Mongolia | 105 | 17 | 64 |
| 162 | Palestine | 105 | 5 | 33 |
| 164 | New Caledonia | 104 | -6 | 7 |
| 165 | Myanmar | 103 | 2 | 31 |
| 166 | Chinese Taipei | 96 | -1 | 19 |
| 167 | Aruba | 95 | 33 | 88 |
| 168 | Swaziland | 93 | -11 | -8 |
| 168 | Vanuatu | 93 | 5 | 29 |
| 170 | Pakistan | 91 | -1 | 21 |
| 171 | Cayman Islands | 90 | -11 | 0 |
| 172 | Malta | 83 | -11 | 0 |
| 173 | Cambodia | 81 | 1 | 24 |
| 173 | Laos | 81 | 1 | 24 |
| 175 | Comoros | 80 | -11 | 0 |
| 176 | Sri Lanka | 79 | -5 | 10 |
| 177 | Nicaragua | 75 | -16 | -8 |
| 178 | Afghanistan | 72 | -12 | -3 |
| 178 | Kyrgyzstan | 72 | -9 | 2 |
| 180 | Solomon Islands | 70 | 0 | 30 |
| 181 | Tahiti | 57 | -7 | 0 |
| 182 | Lebanon | 55 | -5 | 0 |
| 183 | St. Lucia | 54 | 2 | 23 |
| 184 | Lesotho | 44 | -6 | -3 |
| 185 | Bermuda | 40 | -5 | 0 |
| 186 | British Virgin Islands | 38 | -4 | 0 |
| 187 | Mauritania | 32 | -4 | 0 |
| 188 | Eritrea | 29 | -2 | 0 |
| 189 | Samoa | 26 | -2 | 0 |
| 190 | Macau | 25 | -7 | -7 |
| 191 | Somalia | 23 | -3 | 0 |
| 192 | Tonga | 15 | -2 | 0 |
| 193 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 13 | -1 | 0 |
| 194 | Djibouti | 12 | -1 | 0 |
| 195 | Cook Islands | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 195 | Guam | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 195 | Mauritius | 10 | -6 | -7 |
| 198 | Brunei Darussalam | 9 | -1 | 0 |
| 199 | Anguilla | 7 | -2 | -2 |
| 199 | Seychelles | 7 | -9 | -8 |
| 201 | Bhutan | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 202 | Timor-Leste | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | American Samoa | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | Andorra | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | Montserrat | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
FIFA fix the Faroe Islands/Wales error
Sort of...
As you perhaps know, when FIFA published the June 2011 ranking, Wales were displayed above Faroe Islands, although Wales have a smaller unrounded total.
Both teams are shown as 45th in Europe. This is sort of funny because as far as I know, FIFA have never done this before. See for instance the December 2008 FIFA Ranking.
France, Portugal, Czech Republic tied for 11th globally, but shown as 9th, 10th and 11th in Europe.
I do know the Latin alphabet and this is not the alphabetical order, as FIFA claim in a statement.
"The teams are tied in 114th place and have been placed in the list on Fifa.com in alphabetical order. This is simply the standard way of listing the teams which are tied.
We are not in a position to speculate on the potential difference of decimal points.
What we can confirm is that the change has been done on Fifa.com due to teams that are tied being listed in alphabetical order. Other teams were also tied and not listed in alphabetical order, something which has now been corrected."
The statement is taken from this BBC article. Thanks John Sinnott - this is the first time I'm mentioned on BBC :)
Congratulations to Jákup Emil Hansen and Rólant Waag Dam. Jákup made the headlines recently in The Telegraph (here and here) and it seems Rólant's articles (couldn't find one now) have pressured the Faroese FA into contacting FIFA about this matter. Even had a short radio interview with Rólant two weeks ago - that was very unexpected.
Speaking of the Faroese FA, I even got a "Thank you" e-mail from Virgar Hvidbro, FAF's general secretary. :)
As you perhaps know, when FIFA published the June 2011 ranking, Wales were displayed above Faroe Islands, although Wales have a smaller unrounded total.
Both teams are shown as 45th in Europe. This is sort of funny because as far as I know, FIFA have never done this before. See for instance the December 2008 FIFA Ranking.
France, Portugal, Czech Republic tied for 11th globally, but shown as 9th, 10th and 11th in Europe.
I do know the Latin alphabet and this is not the alphabetical order, as FIFA claim in a statement.
"The teams are tied in 114th place and have been placed in the list on Fifa.com in alphabetical order. This is simply the standard way of listing the teams which are tied.
We are not in a position to speculate on the potential difference of decimal points.
What we can confirm is that the change has been done on Fifa.com due to teams that are tied being listed in alphabetical order. Other teams were also tied and not listed in alphabetical order, something which has now been corrected."
The statement is taken from this BBC article. Thanks John Sinnott - this is the first time I'm mentioned on BBC :)
Congratulations to Jákup Emil Hansen and Rólant Waag Dam. Jákup made the headlines recently in The Telegraph (here and here) and it seems Rólant's articles (couldn't find one now) have pressured the Faroese FA into contacting FIFA about this matter. Even had a short radio interview with Rólant two weeks ago - that was very unexpected.
Speaking of the Faroese FA, I even got a "Thank you" e-mail from Virgar Hvidbro, FAF's general secretary. :)
Friday, July 8, 2011
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding: CAF pots (8 July 2011)
Congratulations Namibia! They got the three points against Malawi and have jumped to the fourth pot (first pot in the preliminary round draw) at the expense of Guinea-Bissau.
Only one match remaining: Iran - Madagascar, but Madagascar are locked in the fourth pot, so this is the final version.
The pots look like this:
Preliminary round:
Pot 1: Mozambique, Congo DR, Togo, Liberia, Tanzania, Kenya, Congo, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Burundi, Madagascar, Namibia
Pot 2: Guinea-Bissau, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Swaziland, Comoros, Lesotho, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, Mauritius, Seychelles, Sao Tome e Principe
Group stage draw:
Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Cameroon, Algeria, Tunisia
Pot 2: Gabon, Libya, Morocco, Guinea, Malawi, Botswana, Zambia, Uganda, Mali, Cape Verde Islands
Pot 3: Benin, Zimbabwe, Central African Republic, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Niger, Gambia, Angola
The winners of the first two match-ups from the preliminary round (in the order of the draw) will be placed in Pot 3. The other winners will be placed in Pot 4.
Here's the July 2011 FIFA ranking for CAF teams participating in the 2014 FIFA World Cup preliminaries:
Rank - Team - Points
Only one match remaining: Iran - Madagascar, but Madagascar are locked in the fourth pot, so this is the final version.
The pots look like this:
Preliminary round:
Pot 1: Mozambique, Congo DR, Togo, Liberia, Tanzania, Kenya, Congo, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Burundi, Madagascar, Namibia
Pot 2: Guinea-Bissau, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Swaziland, Comoros, Lesotho, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, Mauritius, Seychelles, Sao Tome e Principe
Group stage draw:
Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Cameroon, Algeria, Tunisia
Pot 2: Gabon, Libya, Morocco, Guinea, Malawi, Botswana, Zambia, Uganda, Mali, Cape Verde Islands
Pot 3: Benin, Zimbabwe, Central African Republic, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Niger, Gambia, Angola
The winners of the first two match-ups from the preliminary round (in the order of the draw) will be placed in Pot 3. The other winners will be placed in Pot 4.
Here's the July 2011 FIFA ranking for CAF teams participating in the 2014 FIFA World Cup preliminaries:
Rank - Team - Points
1 Côte d'Ivoire 922 2 Egypt 738 3 Ghana 696 4 Burkina Faso 661 5 Nigeria 635 6 Senegal 619 7 South Africa 597 8 Cameroon 595 9 Algeria 575 10 Tunisia 553 ------------------------------- 11 Gabon 517 12 Libya 494 12 Morocco 494 14 Guinea 474 15 Botswana 440 16 Malawi 439 17 Zambia 436 18 Uganda 417 19 Mali 416 20 Cape Verde Islands 397 ------------------------------- 21 Benin 380 21 Zimbabwe 380 23 Central African Republic 370 24 Sierra Leone 348 25 Sudan 333 26 Niger 331 27 Gambia 329 27 Angola 329 ------------------------------- 29 Mozambique 327 30 Congo DR 240 31 Togo 238 32 Liberia 233 33 Tanzania 231 34 Congo 206 35 Kenya 204 36 Rwanda 190 37 Ethiopia 169 38 Namibia 168 39 Burundi 164 40 Madagascar 144 ------------------------------- 41 Guinea-Bissau 142 42 Equatorial Guinea 131 43 Chad 127 44 Swaziland 93 45 Comoros 80 46 Lesotho 44 47 Eritrea 29 48 Somalia 23 49 Djibouti 12 50 Mauritius 10 51 Seychelles 7 52 Sao Tome e Principe 0
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): 10000 simulations (8 July 2011)
I ran 10000 simulations using the Elo Ratings.
Assumption: Indonesia will somehow avoid being suspended by FIFA.
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (8 July 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (8 July 2011)
Kuwait's chances for Pot 2 have improved by 24.71% after their friendly results, but they are still outsiders. Bahrain are no longer safe in Pot 2.
No changes in the pots.
Based on these 10000 simulations, this is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.
Pot 1: Australia, China PR, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, United Arab Emirates
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Lebanon, Singapore, Thailand, Turkmenistan
Assumption: Indonesia will somehow avoid being suspended by FIFA.
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (8 July 2011)
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (8 July 2011)
Kuwait's chances for Pot 2 have improved by 24.71% after their friendly results, but they are still outsiders. Bahrain are no longer safe in Pot 2.
No changes in the pots.
Based on these 10000 simulations, this is most likely composition of pots. In each pot, teams are sorted alphabetically, so don't read anything into their order.
Pot 1: Australia, China PR, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic
Pot 2: Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Uzbekistan
Pot 3: Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Syria, United Arab Emirates
Pot 4: Korea DPR, Lebanon, Singapore, Thailand, Turkmenistan
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by team (8 July 2011)
Japan: 100.00% in Pot 1
Australia: 100.00% in Pot 1
Korea Republic: 100.00% in Pot 1
China PR: 99.93% in Pot 1, 0.07% eliminated in QR2
Iran: 99.54% in Pot 1, 0.46% eliminated in QR2
Uzbekistan: 97.02% in Pot 2, 2.46% eliminated in QR2, 0.52% in Pot 1
Qatar: 90.61% in Pot 2, 9.38% eliminated in QR2, 0.01% in Pot 1
Jordan: 98.97% in Pot 2, 1.03% eliminated in QR2
Saudi Arabia: 94.56% in Pot 2, 5.44% eliminated in QR2
Bahrain: 75.27% in Pot 2, 24.73% in Pot 3
Kuwait: 56.80% in Pot 3, 42.19% in Pot 2, 1.01% eliminated in QR2
Syria: 85.38% in Pot 3, 13.80% eliminated in QR2, 0.82% in Pot 2
Iraq: 90.72% in Pot 3, 8.95% eliminated in QR2, 0.33% in Pot 2
Oman: 98.63% in Pot 3, 1.14% eliminated in QR2, 0.23% in Pot 2
United Arab Emirates: 86.18% in Pot 3, 13.82% eliminated in QR2
Korea DPR: 54.56% in Pot 4, 45.44% in Pot 3
Thailand: 74.78% in Pot 4, 16.13% eliminated in QR2, 9.09% in Pot 3
Yemen: 91.05% eliminated in QR2, 7.87% in Pot 4, 1.08% in Pot 3
Tajikistan: 86.20% eliminated in QR2, 13.02% in Pot 4, 0.78% in Pot 3
Indonesia: 61.13% eliminated in QR2, 38.19% in Pot 4, 0.68% in Pot 3
Vietnam: 90.62% eliminated in QR2, 9.14% in Pot 4, 0.24% in Pot 3
Nepal: 98.97% eliminated in QR2, 0.88% in Pot 4, 0.15% in Pot 3
Singapore: 62.61% in Pot 4, 37.32% eliminated in QR2, 0.07% in Pot 3
Malaysia: 62.68% eliminated in QR2, 37.29% in Pot 4, 0.03% in Pot 3
Lebanon: 87.04% in Pot 4, 12.96% eliminated in QR2
Turkmenistan: 61.13% in Pot 4, 38.87% eliminated in QR2
Palestine: 83.87% eliminated in QR2, 16.13% in Pot 4
India: 86.18% eliminated in QR2, 13.82% in Pot 4
Bangladesh: 87.04% eliminated in QR2, 12.96% in Pot 4
Hong Kong: 94.56% eliminated in QR2, 5.44% in Pot 4
Kyrgyzstan: 97.54% eliminated in QR2, 2.46% in Pot 4
Myanmar: 98.86% eliminated in QR2, 1.14% in Pot 4
Philippines: 98.99% eliminated in QR2, 1.01% in Pot 4
Maldives: 99.54% eliminated in QR2, 0.46% in Pot 4
Laos: 99.93% eliminated in QR2, 0.07% in Pot 4
Australia: 100.00% in Pot 1
Korea Republic: 100.00% in Pot 1
China PR: 99.93% in Pot 1, 0.07% eliminated in QR2
Iran: 99.54% in Pot 1, 0.46% eliminated in QR2
Uzbekistan: 97.02% in Pot 2, 2.46% eliminated in QR2, 0.52% in Pot 1
Qatar: 90.61% in Pot 2, 9.38% eliminated in QR2, 0.01% in Pot 1
Jordan: 98.97% in Pot 2, 1.03% eliminated in QR2
Saudi Arabia: 94.56% in Pot 2, 5.44% eliminated in QR2
Bahrain: 75.27% in Pot 2, 24.73% in Pot 3
Kuwait: 56.80% in Pot 3, 42.19% in Pot 2, 1.01% eliminated in QR2
Syria: 85.38% in Pot 3, 13.80% eliminated in QR2, 0.82% in Pot 2
Iraq: 90.72% in Pot 3, 8.95% eliminated in QR2, 0.33% in Pot 2
Oman: 98.63% in Pot 3, 1.14% eliminated in QR2, 0.23% in Pot 2
United Arab Emirates: 86.18% in Pot 3, 13.82% eliminated in QR2
Korea DPR: 54.56% in Pot 4, 45.44% in Pot 3
Thailand: 74.78% in Pot 4, 16.13% eliminated in QR2, 9.09% in Pot 3
Yemen: 91.05% eliminated in QR2, 7.87% in Pot 4, 1.08% in Pot 3
Tajikistan: 86.20% eliminated in QR2, 13.02% in Pot 4, 0.78% in Pot 3
Indonesia: 61.13% eliminated in QR2, 38.19% in Pot 4, 0.68% in Pot 3
Vietnam: 90.62% eliminated in QR2, 9.14% in Pot 4, 0.24% in Pot 3
Nepal: 98.97% eliminated in QR2, 0.88% in Pot 4, 0.15% in Pot 3
Singapore: 62.61% in Pot 4, 37.32% eliminated in QR2, 0.07% in Pot 3
Malaysia: 62.68% eliminated in QR2, 37.29% in Pot 4, 0.03% in Pot 3
Lebanon: 87.04% in Pot 4, 12.96% eliminated in QR2
Turkmenistan: 61.13% in Pot 4, 38.87% eliminated in QR2
Palestine: 83.87% eliminated in QR2, 16.13% in Pot 4
India: 86.18% eliminated in QR2, 13.82% in Pot 4
Bangladesh: 87.04% eliminated in QR2, 12.96% in Pot 4
Hong Kong: 94.56% eliminated in QR2, 5.44% in Pot 4
Kyrgyzstan: 97.54% eliminated in QR2, 2.46% in Pot 4
Myanmar: 98.86% eliminated in QR2, 1.14% in Pot 4
Philippines: 98.99% eliminated in QR2, 1.01% in Pot 4
Maldives: 99.54% eliminated in QR2, 0.46% in Pot 4
Laos: 99.93% eliminated in QR2, 0.07% in Pot 4
2014 FIFA World Cup seeding (AFC): Simulation results by pot (8 July 2011)
Pot 1
100.00% - Japan
100.00% - Australia
100.00% - Korea Republic
99.93% - China PR
99.54% - Iran
0.52% - Uzbekistan
0.01% - Qatar
Pot 2
98.97% - Jordan
97.02% - Uzbekistan
94.56% - Saudi Arabia
90.61% - Qatar
75.27% - Bahrain
42.19% - Kuwait
0.82% - Syria
0.33% - Iraq
0.23% - Oman
Pot 3
98.63% - Oman
90.72% - Iraq
86.18% - United Arab Emirates
85.38% - Syria
56.80% - Kuwait
45.44% - Korea DPR
24.73% - Bahrain
9.09% - Thailand
1.08% - Yemen
0.78% - Tajikistan
0.68% - Indonesia
0.24% - Vietnam
0.15% - Nepal
0.07% - Singapore
0.03% - Malaysia
Pot 4
87.04% - Lebanon
74.78% - Thailand
62.61% - Singapore
61.13% - Turkmenistan
54.56% - Korea DPR
38.19% - Indonesia
37.29% - Malaysia
16.13% - Palestine
13.82% - India
13.02% - Tajikistan
12.96% - Bangladesh
9.14% - Vietnam
7.87% - Yemen
5.44% - Hong Kong
2.46% - Kyrgyzstan
1.14% - Myanmar
1.01% - Philippines
0.88% - Nepal
0.46% - Maldives
0.07% - Laos
Eliminated in the second round
99.93% - Laos
99.54% - Maldives
98.99% - Philippines
98.97% - Nepal
98.86% - Myanmar
97.54% - Kyrgyzstan
94.56% - Hong Kong
91.05% - Yemen
90.62% - Vietnam
87.04% - Bangladesh
86.20% - Tajikistan
86.18% - India
83.87% - Palestine
62.68% - Malaysia
61.13% - Indonesia
38.87% - Turkmenistan
37.32% - Singapore
16.13% - Thailand
13.82% - United Arab Emirates
13.80% - Syria
12.96% - Lebanon
9.38% - Qatar
8.95% - Iraq
5.44% - Saudi Arabia
2.46% - Uzbekistan
1.14% - Oman
1.03% - Jordan
1.01% - Kuwait
0.46% - Iran
0.07% - China PR
100.00% - Japan
100.00% - Australia
100.00% - Korea Republic
99.93% - China PR
99.54% - Iran
0.52% - Uzbekistan
0.01% - Qatar
Pot 2
98.97% - Jordan
97.02% - Uzbekistan
94.56% - Saudi Arabia
90.61% - Qatar
75.27% - Bahrain
42.19% - Kuwait
0.82% - Syria
0.33% - Iraq
0.23% - Oman
Pot 3
98.63% - Oman
90.72% - Iraq
86.18% - United Arab Emirates
85.38% - Syria
56.80% - Kuwait
45.44% - Korea DPR
24.73% - Bahrain
9.09% - Thailand
1.08% - Yemen
0.78% - Tajikistan
0.68% - Indonesia
0.24% - Vietnam
0.15% - Nepal
0.07% - Singapore
0.03% - Malaysia
Pot 4
87.04% - Lebanon
74.78% - Thailand
62.61% - Singapore
61.13% - Turkmenistan
54.56% - Korea DPR
38.19% - Indonesia
37.29% - Malaysia
16.13% - Palestine
13.82% - India
13.02% - Tajikistan
12.96% - Bangladesh
9.14% - Vietnam
7.87% - Yemen
5.44% - Hong Kong
2.46% - Kyrgyzstan
1.14% - Myanmar
1.01% - Philippines
0.88% - Nepal
0.46% - Maldives
0.07% - Laos
Eliminated in the second round
99.93% - Laos
99.54% - Maldives
98.99% - Philippines
98.97% - Nepal
98.86% - Myanmar
97.54% - Kyrgyzstan
94.56% - Hong Kong
91.05% - Yemen
90.62% - Vietnam
87.04% - Bangladesh
86.20% - Tajikistan
86.18% - India
83.87% - Palestine
62.68% - Malaysia
61.13% - Indonesia
38.87% - Turkmenistan
37.32% - Singapore
16.13% - Thailand
13.82% - United Arab Emirates
13.80% - Syria
12.96% - Lebanon
9.38% - Qatar
8.95% - Iraq
5.44% - Saudi Arabia
2.46% - Uzbekistan
1.14% - Oman
1.03% - Jordan
1.01% - Kuwait
0.46% - Iran
0.07% - China PR
June 2011: FIFA Ranking vs. Elo Ratings
Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)
Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
Matches I would have liked to see before the next ranking:
Ecuador - Slovakia
Venezuela - Montenegro
China PR - Algeria
Colombia - Slovenia
Poland - Burkina Faso
Chile - Greece
Iran - Belarus
Scotland - Albania
Ukraine - Bosnia-Herzegovina
Romania - Georgia
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| Solomon Islands | 180 | 116 | 64 |
| Fiji | 156 | 113 | 43 |
| Vanuatu | 173 | 133 | 40 |
| Papua New Guinea | 203 | 164 | 39 |
| Wales | 114 | 77 | 37 |
| Iraq | 96 | 60 | 36 |
| Ecuador | 68 | 35 | 33 |
| Venezuela | 69 | 36 | 33 |
| New Zealand | 97 | 64 | 33 |
| Oman | 107 | 75 | 32 |
Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| Algeria | 51 | 93 | -42 |
| Puerto Rico | 137 | 176 | -39 |
| Luxembourg | 128 | 166 | -38 |
| Faroe Islands | 114 | 148 | -34 |
| Dominica | 133 | 167 | -34 |
| Sierra Leone | 95 | 128 | -33 |
| Liechtenstein | 120 | 153 | -33 |
| St. Kitts and Nevis | 121 | 154 | -33 |
| Armenia | 70 | 102 | -32 |
| Suriname | 108 | 139 | -31 |
Top 50 nations only (in the top 50 in at least one of the rankings)
Top 10 differences for countries with a better Elo Rating:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| Ecuador | 68 | 35 | 33 |
| Venezuela | 69 | 36 | 33 |
| China PR | 75 | 46 | 29 |
| Colombia | 54 | 26 | 28 |
| Poland | 67 | 44 | 23 |
| Chile | 27 | 8 | 19 |
| Iran | 50 | 32 | 18 |
| Scotland | 61 | 45 | 16 |
| Ukraine | 42 | 27 | 15 |
| Romania | 53 | 38 | 15 |
Top 10 differences for countries with a better FIFA Ranking:
Team - FIFA Ranking - Elo Rating - Difference
| Burkina Faso | 37 | 67 | -30 |
| Slovakia | 28 | 57 | -29 |
| Montenegro | 16 | 40 | -24 |
| Slovenia | 21 | 43 | -22 |
| Greece | 12 | 31 | -19 |
| Belarus | 40 | 58 | -18 |
| Bosnia-Herzegovina | 39 | 56 | -17 |
| Belgium | 35 | 49 | -14 |
| Norway | 11 | 23 | -12 |
| Senegal | 43 | 54 | -11 |
Matches I would have liked to see before the next ranking:
Ecuador - Slovakia
Venezuela - Montenegro
China PR - Algeria
Colombia - Slovenia
Poland - Burkina Faso
Chile - Greece
Iran - Belarus
Scotland - Albania
Ukraine - Bosnia-Herzegovina
Romania - Georgia
Friday, July 1, 2011
FIFA Ranking: July 2011 probable ranking
Next update: July 15th, 2011.
Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
Papua New Guinea will no longer be listed in the July ranking.
Probable July 2011 rank - Team - Probable July 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
Papua New Guinea will no longer be listed in the July ranking.
Probable July 2011 rank - Team - Probable July 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Spain | 1588 | 0 | -283 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 1542 | 0 | -119 |
| 3 | Brazil | 1494 | 2 | 364 |
| 4 | Germany | 1305 | -1 | -112 |
| 5 | Argentina | 1225 | 5 | 246 |
| 6 | England | 1146 | -2 | 0 |
| 7 | Chile | 1085 | 20 | 303 |
| 8 | Portugal | 1076 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Uruguay | 1071 | 9 | 162 |
| 10 | Italy | 1059 | -4 | 0 |
| 11 | Croatia | 1033 | -3 | 0 |
| 12 | Norway | 972 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Greece | 959 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Côte d'Ivoire | 922 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | France | 920 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Japan | 918 | -3 | -7 |
| 17 | Montenegro | 915 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Russia | 914 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Mexico | 911 | -10 | -96 |
| 20 | Sweden | 884 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Denmark | 857 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Slovenia | 833 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Australia | 831 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 | Turkey | 820 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Serbia | 797 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | Korea Republic | 781 | 0 | -6 |
| 27 | Slovakia | 779 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 | Switzerland | 778 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 | USA | 778 | -4 | -21 |
| 30 | Israel | 771 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 | Republic of Ireland | 752 | 0 | 0 |
| 32 | Egypt | 736 | 2 | 9 |
| 33 | Ghana | 696 | 0 | -39 |
| 34 | Paraguay | 692 | -2 | -51 |
| 35 | Belgium | 691 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | Czech Republic | 670 | 0 | 0 |
| 37 | Colombia | 663 | 17 | 99 |
| 38 | Burkina Faso | 661 | -1 | 0 |
| 39 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 642 | 0 | 0 |
| 40 | Belarus | 636 | 0 | 0 |
| 41 | Nigeria | 635 | 0 | 0 |
| 42 | Jamaica | 632 | -4 | -24 |
| 43 | Ukraine | 620 | -1 | 0 |
| 44 | Senegal | 619 | -1 | 0 |
| 45 | Hungary | 603 | 0 | 0 |
| 46 | Bulgaria | 599 | 0 | 0 |
| 47 | South Africa | 597 | 0 | 0 |
| 48 | Cameroon | 595 | 0 | 0 |
| 49 | Honduras | 592 | -5 | -21 |
| 50 | Algeria | 575 | 1 | 0 |
| 51 | Romania | 571 | 2 | 0 |
| 52 | Iran | 560 | -2 | -18 |
| 53 | Tunisia | 553 | 4 | 26 |
| 54 | Georgia | 530 | 2 | 0 |
| 55 | Peru | 529 | -6 | -54 |
| 56 | Lithuania | 526 | 2 | 0 |
| 57 | Albania | 524 | 2 | 0 |
| 58 | Gabon | 517 | 2 | 0 |
| 59 | Scotland | 513 | 2 | 0 |
| 60 | Ecuador | 504 | 8 | 31 |
| 61 | Northern Ireland | 498 | 1 | 0 |
| 62 | Libya | 494 | 1 | 0 |
| 62 | Morocco | 494 | 1 | 0 |
| 64 | Venezuela | 489 | 5 | 18 |
| 65 | Panama | 487 | -13 | -87 |
| 66 | Costa Rica | 486 | -11 | -75 |
| 67 | Austria | 479 | -2 | 0 |
| 68 | Guinea | 475 | -2 | 0 |
| 69 | Poland | 474 | -2 | 0 |
| 70 | Armenia | 462 | 0 | 0 |
| 71 | Bolivia | 453 | 22 | 97 |
| 72 | Malawi | 450 | -1 | -4 |
| 73 | Botswana | 440 | 1 | 9 |
| 74 | Zambia | 436 | -2 | 2 |
| 75 | China PR | 431 | 0 | 5 |
| 76 | Finland | 419 | 0 | 0 |
| 77 | Uganda | 417 | 0 | 0 |
| 78 | Mali | 416 | 0 | 0 |
| 79 | El Salvador | 401 | -7 | -33 |
| 80 | Estonia | 399 | -1 | 0 |
| 81 | Cyprus | 398 | -1 | 0 |
| 82 | Cape Verde Islands | 397 | -1 | 0 |
| 83 | Latvia | 388 | -1 | 0 |
| 84 | Moldova | 383 | 1 | 0 |
| 85 | Uzbekistan | 381 | 1 | 0 |
| 86 | Benin | 380 | 1 | 0 |
| 86 | Zimbabwe | 380 | 1 | 0 |
| 88 | Trinidad and Tobago | 379 | 2 | 5 |
| 89 | Jordan | 374 | -5 | -11 |
| 90 | Central African Republic | 370 | 1 | 0 |
| 91 | Qatar | 355 | 3 | 0 |
| 92 | Sierra Leone | 348 | 3 | 0 |
| 93 | New Zealand | 345 | 4 | 0 |
| 94 | Saudi Arabia | 343 | -2 | -23 |
| 95 | FYR Macedonia | 338 | 3 | 0 |
| 96 | Sudan | 333 | 3 | 0 |
| 97 | Kuwait | 331 | 5 | 2 |
| 97 | Niger | 331 | 3 | 0 |
| 99 | Cuba | 330 | 2 | 0 |
| 100 | Angola | 329 | 2 | 0 |
| 100 | Bahrain | 329 | 2 | 0 |
| 100 | Gambia | 329 | 2 | 0 |
| 103 | Mozambique | 327 | 3 | 0 |
| 104 | Canada | 314 | -21 | -73 |
| 105 | Antigua and Barbuda | 308 | 6 | 22 |
| 105 | Syria | 308 | 4 | 18 |
| 107 | Iraq | 303 | -11 | -43 |
| 108 | Suriname | 296 | 0 | 0 |
| 109 | United Arab Emirates | 285 | 1 | -3 |
| 110 | Oman | 284 | -3 | -14 |
| 111 | Azerbaijan | 282 | 1 | 0 |
| 112 | Faroe Islands | 273 | 2 | 0 |
| 112 | Wales | 273 | 2 | 0 |
| 114 | Guyana | 269 | 2 | 2 |
| 115 | Guatemala | 260 | 3 | -2 |
| 115 | Korea DPR | 260 | 4 | 5 |
| 117 | Haiti | 256 | -28 | -121 |
| 118 | Liechtenstein | 253 | 2 | 0 |
| 119 | Grenada | 246 | -2 | -19 |
| 120 | Iceland | 244 | 2 | 0 |
| 121 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 243 | 0 | -5 |
| 122 | Congo DR | 238 | 2 | 0 |
| 122 | Togo | 238 | -9 | -41 |
| 124 | Liberia | 232 | 1 | 0 |
| 125 | Kazakhstan | 231 | 1 | 0 |
| 126 | Tanzania | 230 | 1 | 0 |
| 126 | Thailand | 230 | -3 | -9 |
| 128 | Luxembourg | 213 | 0 | 0 |
| 129 | Congo | 206 | 0 | 0 |
| 130 | Kenya | 204 | 0 | 0 |
| 131 | Nepal | 203 | 17 | 67 |
| 132 | Yemen | 199 | -1 | 0 |
| 133 | Dominican Republic | 198 | 39 | 132 |
| 134 | Dominica | 193 | -1 | 0 |
| 135 | Rwanda | 190 | -1 | 1 |
| 136 | Malaysia | 186 | 8 | 40 |
| 137 | Indonesia | 182 | -5 | -13 |
| 138 | Tajikistan | 180 | -3 | 0 |
| 139 | Ethiopia | 170 | -3 | 0 |
| 139 | Vietnam | 170 | 1 | 11 |
| 141 | Puerto Rico | 167 | -4 | 0 |
| 142 | Bangladesh | 166 | 21 | 85 |
| 142 | Singapore | 166 | 0 | 11 |
| 144 | Burundi | 164 | -5 | 0 |
| 145 | Barbados | 156 | -4 | 0 |
| 146 | Turkmenistan | 147 | -3 | 0 |
| 147 | Madagascar | 144 | -9 | -22 |
| 148 | Guinea-Bissau | 142 | -3 | 0 |
| 149 | Hong Kong | 141 | -3 | 0 |
| 150 | India | 135 | -3 | -2 |
| 151 | Equatorial Guinea | 131 | -2 | 0 |
| 152 | Curacao | 128 | -2 | 0 |
| 152 | Palestine | 128 | 15 | 56 |
| 154 | Chad | 127 | -2 | 4 |
| 155 | British Virgin Islands | 126 | 27 | 88 |
| 156 | Maldives | 123 | -5 | -3 |
| 157 | Namibia | 120 | -4 | 3 |
| 158 | Belize | 112 | -4 | 0 |
| 158 | Philippines | 112 | 1 | 16 |
| 158 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 112 | -4 | 0 |
| 161 | Mongolia | 105 | 18 | 64 |
| 161 | Myanmar | 105 | 6 | 33 |
| 163 | New Caledonia | 104 | -5 | 7 |
| 164 | Fiji | 103 | -8 | 0 |
| 165 | Bahamas | 97 | 32 | 88 |
| 166 | Swaziland | 93 | -9 | -8 |
| 167 | Pakistan | 91 | 2 | 21 |
| 168 | Cayman Islands | 90 | -8 | 0 |
| 169 | Solomon Islands | 87 | 11 | 47 |
| 170 | Malta | 83 | -9 | 0 |
| 171 | St. Lucia | 82 | 14 | 51 |
| 172 | Cambodia | 81 | 2 | 24 |
| 173 | Comoros | 80 | -9 | 0 |
| 174 | Sri Lanka | 79 | -3 | 10 |
| 175 | Laos | 75 | -1 | 18 |
| 175 | Nicaragua | 75 | -14 | -8 |
| 177 | Kyrgyzstan | 72 | -8 | 2 |
| 178 | Chinese Taipei | 69 | -13 | -8 |
| 179 | Afghanistan | 59 | -13 | -16 |
| 179 | Vanuatu | 59 | -6 | -5 |
| 181 | Tahiti | 57 | -7 | 0 |
| 182 | Lebanon | 55 | -5 | 0 |
| 183 | Lesotho | 44 | -5 | -3 |
| 184 | Bermuda | 40 | -4 | 0 |
| 185 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 35 | 7 | 22 |
| 186 | US Virgin Islands | 34 | 7 | 22 |
| 187 | Mauritania | 32 | -4 | 0 |
| 188 | Aruba | 29 | 12 | 22 |
| 188 | Eritrea | 29 | -2 | 0 |
| 190 | Samoa | 26 | -3 | 0 |
| 191 | Macau | 25 | -8 | -7 |
| 192 | Somalia | 23 | -4 | 0 |
| 193 | Tonga | 15 | -3 | 0 |
| 194 | Djibouti | 12 | -1 | 0 |
| 195 | Cook Islands | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 195 | Guam | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 195 | Mauritius | 10 | -6 | -7 |
| 198 | Brunei Darussalam | 9 | -1 | 0 |
| 199 | Anguilla | 7 | -2 | -2 |
| 199 | Seychelles | 7 | -9 | -8 |
| 201 | Bhutan | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 202 | Timor-Leste | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | American Samoa | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | Andorra | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | Montserrat | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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