Only one match remaining: Iran - Madagascar, but Madagascar are locked in the fourth pot, so this is the final version.
The pots look like this:
Preliminary round:
Pot 1: Mozambique, Congo DR, Togo, Liberia, Tanzania, Kenya, Congo, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Burundi, Madagascar, Namibia
Pot 2: Guinea-Bissau, Equatorial Guinea, Chad, Swaziland, Comoros, Lesotho, Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, Mauritius, Seychelles, Sao Tome e Principe
Group stage draw:
Pot 1: Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Cameroon, Algeria, Tunisia
Pot 2: Gabon, Libya, Morocco, Guinea, Malawi, Botswana, Zambia, Uganda, Mali, Cape Verde Islands
Pot 3: Benin, Zimbabwe, Central African Republic, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Niger, Gambia, Angola
The winners of the first two match-ups from the preliminary round (in the order of the draw) will be placed in Pot 3. The other winners will be placed in Pot 4.
Here's the July 2011 FIFA ranking for CAF teams participating in the 2014 FIFA World Cup preliminaries:
Rank - Team - Points
1 Côte d'Ivoire 922 2 Egypt 738 3 Ghana 696 4 Burkina Faso 661 5 Nigeria 635 6 Senegal 619 7 South Africa 597 8 Cameroon 595 9 Algeria 575 10 Tunisia 553 ------------------------------- 11 Gabon 517 12 Libya 494 12 Morocco 494 14 Guinea 474 15 Botswana 440 16 Malawi 439 17 Zambia 436 18 Uganda 417 19 Mali 416 20 Cape Verde Islands 397 ------------------------------- 21 Benin 380 21 Zimbabwe 380 23 Central African Republic 370 24 Sierra Leone 348 25 Sudan 333 26 Niger 331 27 Gambia 329 27 Angola 329 ------------------------------- 29 Mozambique 327 30 Congo DR 240 31 Togo 238 32 Liberia 233 33 Tanzania 231 34 Congo 206 35 Kenya 204 36 Rwanda 190 37 Ethiopia 169 38 Namibia 168 39 Burundi 164 40 Madagascar 144 ------------------------------- 41 Guinea-Bissau 142 42 Equatorial Guinea 131 43 Chad 127 44 Swaziland 93 45 Comoros 80 46 Lesotho 44 47 Eritrea 29 48 Somalia 23 49 Djibouti 12 50 Mauritius 10 51 Seychelles 7 52 Sao Tome e Principe 0
Sorry to post this here, but theres no need for a CONMEBOL post.
ReplyDeleteHow big of an impact will Brasil not having any competitive games for two years impact their ranking? Obviously you can't predict that far into the future, but could you guestimate how many ranking points they will have going into the Confed cup with say a handful of average value friendly wins for two years?
This is only a rough estimation:
ReplyDeleteIn May 2013, Brazil will have
- about 200 points from the 0.2 time frame (which includes the Confed Cup 2009),
- about 190 points from the 0.3 time frame (which includes the World Cup 2010),
- They made about 430 points average in the last 12 months, which include the Copa America plus several friendlies. Take that as an estimation for the 0.5 time frame in May 2013, i. e. 215 points from that time frame.
- They made about 340 points average from their last 14 friendlies. Take that as an estimation for the 1.0 time frame in May 2013.
So that makes 200 + 190 + 215 + 340 = 945 points.
In May 2009, Czech Republic was 12th with 968 points, while Greece was 13th with 927 points.
So we might expect Brazil to drop to 900+x points and to a sub-top-ten position, but still in the top 20.
So a new formula on the cards then. Surely they can't let that farce continue.
ReplyDelete@Nando - I think you need to look at the June ranking, not May.
ReplyDelete@CWY2190
Based on their friendly results in the last 4 years, I'd go with 995 points in June 2013 - still a sub-top-ten position as Nando said.
@Haakon
Why? See the penultimate question in the FIFA Ranking FAQ (PDF document on FIFA.com).
OK, the original question was "how many ranking points they will have going into the Confed cup".
ReplyDeleteTherefore we have indeed to look at the June ranking.
I was more interested in the question "how deep will Brazil fall due to the fact that they play only friendlies during the next ~23 months", assuming that they are as good in their upcoming frienlies as in the recent years.
The problem with the June ranking is that I don't know the publication date. Brazil had 15 matches in June in 2009, 2010 and 2011 all together. If we don't know the publication date, we won't know which of those games belong to which time frame.
ReplyDeleteIf we assume that the publication date will be Jun 12 2013 (which is the Wednesday before the start of the Confed Cup), then my estimation goes down to 914 points.
The difference to Edgar's estimation is that he took the average over the last 4 years friendlies, while I took the average over the last two years. Brazil was less successfull in their more recent friendlies.
So the results of their friendlies will still be important; there is still uncertainty in the order of ~100 points.
http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/tournament/preliminarydraw/01/48/03/97/prelimdrawpotallocations.pdf
ReplyDelete