2014 World Cup seeding: What if?

Wales' choice of not using the June FIFA match dates was a mistake. With a win against any team in the World (how about American Samoa - surely they would have flown to Cardiff in an instant) they would have been in Pot 5, above the Faroe Islands. Read more to see why.

Some teams could have climbed to a higher pot by scheduling and winning a friendly in June/July. In some cases a draw would have been enough.

Let's look at Europe first.

Team - Points needed to climb to a higher pot - Current pot

Switzerland	293.36	3
Israel	486.63	3
Bulgaria	309.42	4
Armenia	429.60	5
Wales	82.37	6
Iceland	282.88	6
Liechtenstein	378.29	6
Kazakhstan	531.97	6

Based on the May ranking (used for games played in June) and June ranking (used for games played in July) and choosing the weakest opponent (based on the Elo Rating), this is what the above table actually means:

Switzerland - a win against Mozambique (in June) or Central African Republic (in July).
Israel - a win against Slovakia.
Bulgaria - a win against Cuba (in June) or Zimbabwe (in July).
Armenia - a win against Algeria (in June) or Georgia (in July)
Wales - a win against American Samoa or a draw against Grenada (in June) or Suriname (in July).
Iceland - a win against Grenada (in June) or Sierra Leone (in July).
Liechtenstein - a win against Armenia.
Kazakhstan - a win against Slovenia.

On to Africa:

Team - Points needed to climb to a higher pot - Current pot

Gabon	398.45	2
Benin	241.39	3
Zimbabwe	347.11	3
Central African Republic	532.51	3
Mozambique	168.00	4
Liberia	481.71	4
Equatorial Guinea	65.65	5
Guinea-Bissau	140.59	5
Chad	165.89	5
Comoros	442.36	5
Lesotho	496.47	5
Swaziland	534.69	5

 
Based on the May ranking (used for games played in June) and June ranking (used for games played in July) and choosing the weakest opponent (based on the Elo Rating), this is what the above table actually means:

Gabon - a win against Algeria (in June)/Georgia (in July).
Benin - a win against Grenada (in June)/Sierra Leone (in July).
Zimbabwe - a win against Armenia.
Central African Republic - a win against Italy.
Mozambique - a win against Puerto Rico (in June) or Dominica (in July) or a draw against Slovenia (in June)/Montenegro (in July).
Liberia - a win against Slovakia (in June)/Slovenia (in July).
Equatorial Guinea - a win against American Samoa or a draw against Luxembourg.
Guinea-Bissau - a win against Puerto Rico or a draw against Lithuania (in June) or Belarus (in July).
Chad - a win against Puerto Rico (in June) or Dominica (in July) or a draw against Slovenia.
Comoros - a win against Slovakia (in June)/Belarus (in July).
Lesotho - a win against Slovenia.
Swaziland - a win against Uruguay (in June)/Italy (in July)

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.