FIFA will publish the ranking on July 27th. The deadline for matches was yesterday, but I'm sure FIFA will include at least two more matches: the Copa America final (Uruguay - Paraguay) and 3rd place match (Peru - Venezuela).
This is how the totals can change for these two teams:
Uruguay (Loss: 1055, PSO Loss: 1089, PSO Win: 1122, Win: 1156)
Paraguay (Loss: 804, PSO Loss: 833, PSO Win: 862, Win: 891)
Peru (Loss: 726, PSO Loss: 756, PSO Win: 787, Win: 817)
Venezuela (Loss: 648, PSO Loss: 670, PSO Win: 691, Win: 713)
FIFA could also include the first leg of the AFC FIFA World Cup second preliminary round. However, I think that is unlikely.
In the table below, the values displayed for these two teams are the lowest possible - even if they lose their totals won't drop.
Papua New Guinea will disappear from the ranking - no matches in the last 4 years.
Uruguay climb 10 places (at least) and return to the top 10. With a win against Uruguay they will climb to 5th. Mexico drop out of the top 10, losing 11 places.
Best movers:
45 - Bahamas
44 - US Virgin Islands
40 - Dominican Republic
Worst movers:
-28 - Haiti
-21 - Canada
-16 - Nicaragua
Best movers in the top 50:
29 - Venezuela
19 - Colombia
16 - Chile
Peru and/or Paraguay could also join this list. Venezuela can still improve.
Worst movers in the top 50:
-11 - Mexico
-7 - Honduras
-6 - Jamaica
Mexico could drop one extra spot should Paraguay win the Copa America avoinding PSO.
Egypt replace Ghana as 2nd in Africa.
Costa Rica replace Panama as 5th in CONCACAF.
Uruguay replace Argentina as 2nd in CONMEBOL. Peru could climb in the top 5 with a win against Venezuela and a defeat for Paraguay against Uruguay in the Copa America final.
Solomon Islands replace Tahiti in OFC's top 5.
Portugal replace Italy as 5th in Europe.
Five teams will improve their best ever ranking:
Venezuela (40th - 47th in February 2010)
Central African Republic (89th - 91st in June 2011)
Belize (148th - 154th in June 2011)
US Virgin Islands (149th - 190th in April 1999)
Mongolia (162nd - 170th in November 2009)
Two teams will return to their best ever ranking:
Peru (34th - first achieved in September 1997)
Liechtenstein (118th - first achieved in January 2008)
Bermuda will return to their worst ever ranking, 185th, first happened in December 1998.
Ten teams will drop to their worst ever ranking:
Saudi Arabia (94th - 92nd in June 2011)
Canada (104th - 103rd in March 2007)
Malta (172nd - 169th in November 2010)
Sri Lanka (176th - 173rd in March 2011)
Kyrgyzstan (178th - 176th in November 2010)
Lebanon (182nd - 178th in April 2011)
Lesotho (184th - 178th in June 2011)
Mauritania (187th - 183rd in June 2011)
Mauritius (195th - 193rd in September 2010)
Seychelles (199th - 196th in October 2010)
July 2011 rank - Team - July 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Spain | 1588 | 0 | -283 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 1542 | 0 | -119 |
| 3 | Germany | 1305 | 0 | -112 |
| 4 | Brazil | 1202 | 1 | 72 |
| 5 | England | 1146 | -1 | 0 |
| 6 | Portugal | 1076 | 1 | 30 |
| 7 | Italy | 1059 | -1 | 0 |
| 8 | Uruguay | 1055 | 10 | 146 |
| 9 | Croatia | 1033 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | Argentina | 1013 | 0 | 34 |
| 11 | Chile | 973 | 16 | 191 |
| 12 | Norway | 972 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | Greece | 959 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Côte d'Ivoire | 922 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | France | 920 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Japan | 918 | -3 | -7 |
| 17 | Montenegro | 915 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Russia | 914 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Sweden | 884 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Mexico | 869 | -11 | -138 |
| 21 | Denmark | 857 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Slovenia | 833 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Australia | 831 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 | Turkey | 820 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Paraguay | 804 | 7 | 61 |
| 26 | Serbia | 797 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Korea Republic | 781 | -1 | -6 |
| 28 | Slovakia | 779 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 | Switzerland | 778 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 | USA | 778 | -5 | -21 |
| 31 | Israel | 771 | -1 | 0 |
| 32 | Republic of Ireland | 752 | -1 | 0 |
| 33 | Egypt | 736 | 1 | 9 |
| 34 | Peru | 726 | 15 | 143 |
| 35 | Colombia | 707 | 19 | 143 |
| 36 | Ghana | 696 | -3 | -39 |
| 37 | Belgium | 691 | -2 | 0 |
| 38 | Czech Republic | 670 | -2 | 0 |
| 39 | Burkina Faso | 661 | -2 | 0 |
| 40 | Venezuela | 648 | 29 | 177 |
| 41 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 642 | -2 | 0 |
| 42 | Belarus | 636 | -2 | 0 |
| 43 | Nigeria | 635 | -2 | 0 |
| 44 | Jamaica | 632 | -6 | -24 |
| 45 | Ukraine | 620 | -3 | 0 |
| 46 | Senegal | 619 | -3 | 0 |
| 47 | Hungary | 603 | -2 | 0 |
| 48 | Bulgaria | 599 | -2 | 0 |
| 49 | South Africa | 597 | -2 | 0 |
| 50 | Cameroon | 595 | -2 | 0 |
| 51 | Honduras | 592 | -7 | -21 |
| 52 | Algeria | 575 | -1 | 0 |
| 53 | Romania | 571 | 0 | 0 |
| 54 | Iran | 560 | -4 | -18 |
| 55 | Tunisia | 553 | 2 | 26 |
| 56 | Costa Rica | 532 | -1 | -29 |
| 57 | Georgia | 530 | -1 | 0 |
| 58 | Lithuania | 526 | 0 | 0 |
| 59 | Albania | 524 | 0 | 0 |
| 60 | Gabon | 517 | 0 | 0 |
| 61 | Scotland | 513 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | Northern Ireland | 498 | 0 | 0 |
| 63 | Libya | 494 | 0 | 0 |
| 63 | Morocco | 494 | 0 | 0 |
| 65 | Panama | 487 | -13 | -87 |
| 66 | Austria | 479 | -1 | 0 |
| 67 | Ecuador | 478 | 1 | 5 |
| 68 | Guinea | 475 | -2 | 0 |
| 69 | Poland | 474 | -2 | 0 |
| 70 | Armenia | 462 | 0 | 0 |
| 71 | Botswana | 440 | 3 | 9 |
| 72 | Malawi | 439 | -1 | -15 |
| 73 | Zambia | 436 | -1 | 2 |
| 74 | China PR | 431 | 1 | 5 |
| 75 | Finland | 419 | 1 | 0 |
| 76 | Uganda | 417 | 1 | 0 |
| 77 | Mali | 416 | 1 | 0 |
| 78 | El Salvador | 401 | -6 | -33 |
| 79 | Estonia | 399 | 0 | 0 |
| 80 | Bolivia | 398 | 13 | 42 |
| 80 | Cyprus | 398 | 0 | 0 |
| 82 | Cape Verde Islands | 397 | -1 | 0 |
| 83 | Latvia | 388 | -1 | 0 |
| 84 | Moldova | 383 | 1 | 0 |
| 85 | Uzbekistan | 381 | 1 | 0 |
| 86 | Benin | 380 | 1 | 0 |
| 86 | Zimbabwe | 380 | 1 | 0 |
| 88 | Trinidad and Tobago | 379 | 2 | 5 |
| 89 | Central African Republic | 370 | 2 | 0 |
| 90 | Qatar | 359 | 4 | 4 |
| 91 | Jordan | 354 | -7 | -31 |
| 92 | Sierra Leone | 348 | 3 | 0 |
| 93 | New Zealand | 345 | 4 | 0 |
| 94 | Saudi Arabia | 342 | -2 | -24 |
| 95 | FYR Macedonia | 338 | 3 | 0 |
| 96 | Kuwait | 334 | 6 | 5 |
| 97 | Sudan | 333 | 2 | 0 |
| 98 | Niger | 331 | 2 | 0 |
| 99 | Cuba | 330 | 2 | 0 |
| 100 | Angola | 329 | 2 | 0 |
| 100 | Bahrain | 329 | 2 | 0 |
| 100 | Gambia | 329 | 2 | 0 |
| 103 | Mozambique | 327 | 3 | 0 |
| 104 | Canada | 314 | -21 | -73 |
| 105 | Antigua and Barbuda | 308 | 6 | 22 |
| 105 | Syria | 308 | 4 | 18 |
| 107 | Suriname | 296 | 1 | 0 |
| 108 | Oman | 294 | -1 | -4 |
| 109 | Iraq | 292 | -13 | -54 |
| 110 | United Arab Emirates | 285 | 0 | -3 |
| 111 | Azerbaijan | 282 | 1 | 0 |
| 112 | Faroe Islands | 273 | 2 | 0 |
| 112 | Wales | 273 | 2 | 0 |
| 114 | Guyana | 269 | 2 | 2 |
| 115 | Guatemala | 260 | 3 | -2 |
| 115 | Korea DPR | 260 | 4 | 5 |
| 117 | Haiti | 256 | -28 | -121 |
| 118 | Liechtenstein | 253 | 2 | 0 |
| 119 | Grenada | 246 | -2 | -19 |
| 120 | Iceland | 244 | 2 | 0 |
| 121 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 243 | 0 | -5 |
| 122 | Congo DR | 238 | 2 | 0 |
| 122 | Togo | 238 | -9 | -41 |
| 124 | Liberia | 232 | 1 | 0 |
| 125 | Kazakhstan | 231 | 1 | 0 |
| 126 | Tanzania | 230 | 1 | 0 |
| 127 | Thailand | 226 | -4 | -13 |
| 128 | Luxembourg | 213 | 0 | 0 |
| 129 | Congo | 206 | 0 | 0 |
| 130 | Kenya | 204 | 0 | 0 |
| 131 | Nepal | 203 | 17 | 67 |
| 132 | Dominican Republic | 198 | 40 | 132 |
| 133 | Dominica | 193 | 0 | 0 |
| 133 | Yemen | 193 | -2 | -6 |
| 135 | Rwanda | 190 | -1 | 1 |
| 136 | Indonesia | 182 | -4 | -13 |
| 137 | Tajikistan | 180 | -2 | 0 |
| 138 | Ethiopia | 170 | -2 | 0 |
| 138 | Vietnam | 170 | 2 | 11 |
| 140 | Namibia | 168 | 13 | 51 |
| 141 | Puerto Rico | 167 | -4 | 0 |
| 142 | Bangladesh | 166 | 21 | 85 |
| 142 | Singapore | 166 | 0 | 11 |
| 144 | Burundi | 164 | -5 | 0 |
| 145 | Malaysia | 162 | -1 | 16 |
| 146 | Barbados | 156 | -5 | 0 |
| 147 | Turkmenistan | 147 | -4 | 0 |
| 148 | Belize | 146 | 6 | 34 |
| 149 | Madagascar | 144 | -11 | -22 |
| 149 | US Virgin Islands | 144 | 44 | 132 |
| 151 | Guinea-Bissau | 142 | -6 | 0 |
| 152 | Bahamas | 141 | 45 | 132 |
| 152 | Hong Kong | 141 | -6 | 0 |
| 154 | India | 138 | -7 | 1 |
| 155 | Equatorial Guinea | 131 | -6 | 0 |
| 156 | Fiji | 129 | 0 | 26 |
| 157 | Curacao | 128 | -7 | 0 |
| 158 | Chad | 127 | -6 | 4 |
| 159 | Maldives | 123 | -8 | -3 |
| 160 | Philippines | 112 | -1 | 16 |
| 160 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 112 | -6 | 0 |
| 162 | Mongolia | 105 | 17 | 64 |
| 162 | Palestine | 105 | 5 | 33 |
| 164 | New Caledonia | 104 | -6 | 7 |
| 165 | Myanmar | 103 | 2 | 31 |
| 166 | Chinese Taipei | 96 | -1 | 19 |
| 167 | Aruba | 95 | 33 | 88 |
| 168 | Swaziland | 93 | -11 | -8 |
| 168 | Vanuatu | 93 | 5 | 29 |
| 170 | Pakistan | 91 | -1 | 21 |
| 171 | Cayman Islands | 90 | -11 | 0 |
| 172 | Malta | 83 | -11 | 0 |
| 173 | Cambodia | 81 | 1 | 24 |
| 173 | Laos | 81 | 1 | 24 |
| 175 | Comoros | 80 | -11 | 0 |
| 176 | Sri Lanka | 79 | -5 | 10 |
| 177 | Nicaragua | 75 | -16 | -8 |
| 178 | Afghanistan | 72 | -12 | -3 |
| 178 | Kyrgyzstan | 72 | -9 | 2 |
| 180 | Solomon Islands | 70 | 0 | 30 |
| 181 | Tahiti | 57 | -7 | 0 |
| 182 | Lebanon | 55 | -5 | 0 |
| 183 | St. Lucia | 54 | 2 | 23 |
| 184 | Lesotho | 44 | -6 | -3 |
| 185 | Bermuda | 40 | -5 | 0 |
| 186 | British Virgin Islands | 38 | -4 | 0 |
| 187 | Mauritania | 32 | -4 | 0 |
| 188 | Eritrea | 29 | -2 | 0 |
| 189 | Samoa | 26 | -2 | 0 |
| 190 | Macau | 25 | -7 | -7 |
| 191 | Somalia | 23 | -3 | 0 |
| 192 | Tonga | 15 | -2 | 0 |
| 193 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 13 | -1 | 0 |
| 194 | Djibouti | 12 | -1 | 0 |
| 195 | Cook Islands | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 195 | Guam | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 195 | Mauritius | 10 | -6 | -7 |
| 198 | Brunei Darussalam | 9 | -1 | 0 |
| 199 | Anguilla | 7 | -2 | -2 |
| 199 | Seychelles | 7 | -9 | -8 |
| 201 | Bhutan | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 202 | Timor-Leste | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | American Samoa | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | Andorra | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | Montserrat | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Let the hunt begin! Without any more competitive games for Brazil, they are vulnerable, and within sight! England can hunt them down and take 4th in the World! Mwa ha ha ha ha!
ReplyDeleteEdgar, I have a question for you. I noticed some of the Asian countries had friendlies to prepare for their World Cup qualifiers, and held penalty shootouts in the event of a draw. Saudi Arabia beat Jordan and Jordan beat Iraq. This is because Jordan hosted a friendly tournament. Will the teams that won those shootouts claim 2pts in the World rankings, or do penalty shootouts have to be competitive to allow this? Also, if they do get the two points, if two teams played a single, ordinary friendly, and the match was tied, could a shootout be held and 2pts be received by the winner?
ReplyDeleteIf they do get the 2pts, someone needs to tell my England! We damn sure need penalty shootout practice, and if we lose, we lose no points, we can only gain them. Perhaps a few pressureless penalty shootouts will help reduce the fear factor we associate with them.
Kind of off topic, but:
ReplyDeleteEdgar do you know more about the FIFA women's ranking?
I am confused, I read the rules: http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/procedure/women.html
But what happens if there is a penalty shoot-out? And how is it possible that after Japan 2:1 New Zealand Japan lost 1 point, but NZ didn't gain 1 point? It's clear that after a match which didn't end in a draw the sum of the points of both teams must be 0.
I also think the formula in the .pdf to calculate the predicted result is wrong.
You'll most likely miss this reply, but I remembered it this morning when posting the women's ranking.
DeleteMost likely the Japan - NZ match was considered a draw for ranking purposes. When teams draw a match, they don't gain/lose the same amount of points.
Interesting to see a couple UEFA countries at the bottom of the list. I don't remember ever seeing that before.
ReplyDeleteAnd, congrats, US Virgin Islands! Just goes to show that, down at the bottom of the list, it doesn't take much for a big jump.
So, Uruguay will take 5th and push my England into 6th. And both of us will want to hunt down Brazil. All Uruguay have to do is stay ahead of the other CONMEBOL nations, and they'll surpass Brazil in the rankings. The Copa America already states they are the strongest in South America. They got further than everyone else in the region in the World Cup, and perhaps soon, the ranking table will also say Uruguay are the best in South America. Who would have thought it? Rolling back the clock to the glory days. Add runners up at the U17 World Cup and qualifying for the Olympics at the expense of Argentina as 2nd best in CONMEBOL and Uruguay are looking like a World class football nation right now, again, after so many decades. Big respect for Uruguay from me.
ReplyDeleteCan you explain me this please?
ReplyDeleteBosnia and Herzegovina will play friendly game VS Greece in August 2011. How much ranking points will Bosnia get if they win VS Greece?
Lorric,
ReplyDeletewhat's the point of hunting a lame duck? Brazil will go down automatically next August at the latest, when they will have played only friendles for more than 12 months.
"FIFA could also include the first leg of the AFC FIFA World Cup second preliminary round. However, I think that is unlikely."
ReplyDeleteWhy is that unlikely, Edgar? Games are played on the same day as the 3th place final of the Copa America, and a day before the big final.
That means that if FIFA adjusts the deadline from Thursday, July 21st to Sunday, July 24th to include the final games of the Copa America, they should include the qualifiers as well?
If not, this is gonna be a bit of a problem for my database, sorting out the deadlines for the upcoming years. :-)
@ Nando
ReplyDeleteLame duck might still taste nice :)
Also, it's not a given England will overtake either, lose the Euro qualifying group to Montenegro, then lost the playoff, and England might not pass.
But anyway, this is the first time in my life I would not regard Brazil as superior if the two sides met. Right now Brazil are currently exhibiting all the criticisms people usually level at England, including ineptitude from the penalty spot.
Edgar, can you explain this to me:
ReplyDeleteSt. Lucia and Aruba played againt eachother in the first round of the CONCACAF-preliminaries for the 2014 World Cup. Aruba won the first leg by 4:2 and received 330 ranking points.
In the second leg, St. lucia won ofter extra time with 4:2 and progressed to the next round after a penalty shootout.
Despite the win in regular time, St. Lucia only received 220 ranking points, and Aruba gained 110 ranking points. Those scores would have been given if it was a single game, which ended in a draw and was decided by a PSO.
It seems FIFA disregarded the actual result of the game (e.g. a win for St. Lucia), and took the PSO as the decisive factor.
Did FIFA make a mistake here, or is this common practice?
@Tobcoach (about St. Lucia and Aruba):
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't make much sense, but it is consistent with what they have done in the past. See this post.
That's bullshit. St. Lucia could then have won this match by any other winning score and got full points. Absolute garbage. St. Lucia should get full points and Aruba should get nothing.
ReplyDeleteThey'll correct the mistake, won't they? This isn't standard practice, is it? I noticed the scores for these two teams earlier, and couldn't figure it out. Now I know why.
Hi Edgar & Tobcoach,
ReplyDeletePlease let me know that whether India is going to get any points in Aug ranking? In 2014 Fifa World Cup they have lost to UAE in away leg 3 goals to 0 but drew with UAE in home leg 2-2. I dont know the system, i have heard that the points will be given on aggregate it means india lost 5-2 to UAE.
Please let me know the situation.
@Lorric
ReplyDeleteYou get 2 points even if the PSO is not competitive.
@Anonymous
The women's ranking doesn't interest me as I don't follow women's football. That ranking was by request. However, you are right - New Zealand should have gained a point - because points are exchanged much like in the Elo ratings. Feel free to contact FIFA about it.
@Anonymous
Possible outcomes for Bosnia and Herzegovina:
L: 637, D: 656, W: 693
@Tobcoach
I would have included both legs in the same ranking. FIFA did include the first leg so at least you don't have to change your database :)
@Alex
Thanks!
@Lorric
No, they won't. This is standard practice. See the link Alex posted.
@Anonymous
India got 10.74 points for the draw against UAE. However, due to devaluation of results, India will have only 112 in the August ranking.
Edgar, just out of curiosity, how did Papua New Guinea manage to receive a bye to the second round when they are easily the lowest ranked OFC nation, aren't even in the rankings this month and did not participate in 2010 qualification? According to FIFA the seeding was based on the current ranking and "other sporting considerations".. do you know what this means?
ReplyDeleteThanks.
@ Alex
ReplyDeleteI was thinking about this too. PNG probably are stronger than those other teams. But maybe they could have made it a 5 team preliminary, top 2 advance.
@Alex
ReplyDeleteThanks heaps! That definitely cleared things up. I've since found Edgar posted something on this matter too.. http://www.football-rankings.info/2011/07/ofc-and-sporting-reasons.html
Maybe you should post what you said on there?
Thanks again.
@ Edgar
ReplyDeleteI missed this one until now. That is a complete joke by FIFA with the St. Lucia situation.
As for penalty shootouts, that should be exploited.
When The Netherlands win from england, Netherlands are number 1 on ranking !!
ReplyDelete@Nic: You're welcome.
ReplyDeleteAt your suggestion, I'll post a link to this thread on the other post, since the discussion is relevant.