FIFA will publish the ranking on 21 September.
Spain in pole position to claim first place in the rankings. Read more about Netherlands chances of remaining on top.
Samoa and American Samoa avoid being unlisted. With no games they would have been removed from the ranking. Papua New Guinea return to the ranking.
Samoa will join the club of teams with 0 points.
Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
Tajikistan expected to climb 31 places (after the losses against Syria were awarded to them as wins), with Canada (+20) and Mali (19) the other big climbers.
Moldova (-30), Latvia and Sierra (both -22) expected to drop more than 20 places.
Probable September 2011 rank - Team - Probable September 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Spain | 1605 | 1 | 42 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 1571 | -1 | -25 |
| 3 | Germany | 1313 | 0 | -17 |
| 4 | Uruguay | 1184 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Portugal | 1158 | 3 | 98 |
| 6 | Italy | 1142 | 1 | 32 |
| 7 | Brazil | 1132 | -1 | -24 |
| 8 | England | 1089 | -4 | -88 |
| 9 | Croatia | 1057 | 1 | 48 |
| 10 | Russia | 1031 | 3 | 91 |
| 11 | Argentina | 1024 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Greece | 976 | 2 | 39 |
| 13 | Japan | 963 | 2 | 45 |
| 14 | France | 956 | 1 | 38 |
| 15 | Chile | 943 | -4 | -17 |
| 16 | Côte d'Ivoire | 918 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Sweden | 909 | 1 | 20 |
| 18 | Switzerland | 886 | 12 | 129 |
| 19 | Australia | 882 | 3 | 45 |
| 20 | Norway | 880 | -8 | -63 |
| 21 | Serbia | 855 | 8 | 71 |
| 22 | Mexico | 847 | -2 | -17 |
| 23 | Turkey | 827 | 1 | 16 |
| 24 | Slovenia | 818 | -1 | 2 |
| 25 | Montenegro | 808 | -6 | -67 |
| 26 | Paraguay | 795 | -1 | -12 |
| 27 | Denmark | 789 | -6 | -52 |
| 28 | Republic of Ireland | 780 | 3 | 26 |
| 29 | Korea Republic | 779 | 4 | 34 |
| 30 | Egypt | 777 | 4 | 38 |
| 31 | USA | 776 | -3 | -15 |
| 32 | Peru | 754 | -6 | -52 |
| 33 | Belgium | 741 | 4 | 66 |
| 34 | Colombia | 735 | 1 | 5 |
| 35 | Israel | 724 | -3 | -22 |
| 36 | Slovakia | 716 | -10 | -90 |
| 37 | Belarus | 701 | 4 | 56 |
| 38 | Ghana | 700 | -2 | -26 |
| 39 | South Africa | 652 | 8 | 50 |
| 40 | Burkina Faso | 651 | 0 | 5 |
| 41 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 641 | -2 | -15 |
| 42 | Jamaica | 636 | 1 | 13 |
| 43 | Hungary | 630 | 2 | 17 |
| 44 | Czech Republic | 628 | -2 | -7 |
| 45 | Nigeria | 614 | -7 | -45 |
| 45 | Senegal | 614 | 4 | 23 |
| 47 | Georgia | 611 | 16 | 89 |
| 48 | Algeria | 605 | -2 | -7 |
| 48 | Iran | 605 | 5 | 46 |
| 50 | Cameroon | 596 | 2 | 14 |
| 50 | Venezuela | 596 | -6 | -19 |
| 52 | Morocco | 593 | 9 | 64 |
| 53 | Romania | 584 | 1 | 26 |
| 54 | Honduras | 572 | -4 | -17 |
| 54 | Scotland | 572 | 1 | 18 |
| 56 | Panama | 571 | 6 | 47 |
| 57 | Bulgaria | 559 | -6 | -27 |
| 58 | Ukraine | 546 | -10 | -52 |
| 59 | Albania | 528 | -2 | -18 |
| 60 | Tunisia | 527 | -3 | -19 |
| 61 | Costa Rica | 526 | -1 | -4 |
| 62 | Libya | 519 | 2 | 15 |
| 62 | Mali | 519 | 19 | 111 |
| 64 | Lithuania | 504 | -8 | -48 |
| 65 | Northern Ireland | 503 | -6 | -42 |
| 66 | Zimbabwe | 489 | 8 | 55 |
| 67 | Guinea | 484 | 2 | 20 |
| 68 | China PR | 482 | 1 | 18 |
| 68 | Ecuador | 482 | -2 | -9 |
| 70 | Poland | 480 | -5 | -18 |
| 71 | Finland | 472 | 8 | 56 |
| 72 | Gabon | 461 | -5 | -21 |
| 73 | Armenia | 447 | -2 | -9 |
| 74 | Malawi | 439 | -1 | 3 |
| 75 | Uganda | 424 | 5 | 13 |
| 76 | Cyprus | 419 | 0 | -8 |
| 77 | Benin | 417 | 6 | 23 |
| 78 | Trinidad and Tobago | 414 | 13 | 59 |
| 79 | Zambia | 410 | -3 | -17 |
| 80 | Austria | 402 | -12 | -70 |
| 81 | Uzbekistan | 398 | 1 | -3 |
| 82 | Canada | 395 | 20 | 76 |
| 83 | Botswana | 394 | -5 | -30 |
| 84 | Estonia | 392 | 2 | 18 |
| 85 | El Salvador | 390 | -10 | -41 |
| 86 | Bolivia | 380 | -1 | 0 |
| 87 | New Zealand | 377 | 7 | 31 |
| 88 | Cape Verde Islands | 372 | -16 | -72 |
| 89 | Angola | 371 | 7 | 33 |
| 90 | FYR Macedonia | 366 | 0 | 8 |
| 91 | Saudi Arabia | 359 | -4 | -13 |
| 92 | Antigua and Barbuda | 353 | 14 | 45 |
| 93 | Jordan | 352 | -1 | 4 |
| 94 | Bahrain | 343 | 7 | 18 |
| 95 | Cuba | 332 | 4 | 5 |
| 95 | Iraq | 332 | 14 | 39 |
| 95 | Kuwait | 332 | 0 | -9 |
| 98 | Qatar | 323 | -10 | -41 |
| 99 | Oman | 319 | 4 | 7 |
| 100 | Azerbaijan | 318 | 12 | 46 |
| 100 | United Arab Emirates | 318 | 8 | 19 |
| 102 | Sudan | 308 | -4 | -21 |
| 103 | Haiti | 305 | 13 | 46 |
| 104 | Guatemala | 302 | 9 | 41 |
| 104 | Syria | 302 | -7 | -35 |
| 106 | Latvia | 294 | -22 | -94 |
| 107 | Central African Republic | 292 | -3 | -17 |
| 108 | Niger | 286 | -4 | -23 |
| 108 | Suriname | 286 | 2 | 1 |
| 110 | Grenada | 285 | 8 | 36 |
| 111 | Mozambique | 280 | -12 | -47 |
| 112 | Guyana | 278 | 2 | 18 |
| 113 | Togo | 276 | 8 | 34 |
| 114 | Sierra Leone | 274 | -22 | -74 |
| 114 | Wales | 274 | 3 | 23 |
| 116 | Gambia | 265 | -9 | -41 |
| 117 | Korea DPR | 257 | -3 | -3 |
| 118 | Moldova | 255 | -30 | -109 |
| 119 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 254 | 3 | 15 |
| 120 | Faroe Islands | 244 | -9 | -29 |
| 121 | Tanzania | 240 | 4 | 11 |
| 122 | Tajikistan | 238 | 31 | 106 |
| 123 | Thailand | 233 | -3 | -13 |
| 124 | Liberia | 230 | -1 | -8 |
| 125 | Iceland | 227 | -1 | -5 |
| 126 | Liechtenstein | 225 | -7 | -22 |
| 127 | Congo | 221 | 5 | 20 |
| 128 | Dominica | 213 | 8 | 20 |
| 129 | Vietnam | 209 | 0 | 0 |
| 130 | Congo DR | 203 | -3 | -19 |
| 130 | Namibia | 203 | 13 | 34 |
| 132 | Kenya | 200 | 1 | 2 |
| 133 | Kazakhstan | 198 | -7 | -29 |
| 134 | Ethiopia | 195 | 6 | 14 |
| 135 | Indonesia | 194 | -4 | -13 |
| 136 | Nepal | 193 | 0 | 0 |
| 137 | Singapore | 189 | -8 | -20 |
| 138 | Luxembourg | 186 | -10 | -25 |
| 139 | Yemen | 185 | -6 | -13 |
| 140 | Bangladesh | 183 | -1 | 1 |
| 141 | Dominican Republic | 182 | -8 | -16 |
| 141 | Fiji | 182 | 0 | 2 |
| 143 | Turkmenistan | 179 | -1 | 0 |
| 144 | Rwanda | 178 | -6 | -14 |
| 145 | Malaysia | 158 | 1 | 0 |
| 146 | Burundi | 154 | -1 | -10 |
| 147 | Barbados | 148 | 0 | -8 |
| 148 | Puerto Rico | 145 | -4 | -22 |
| 149 | US Virgin Islands | 144 | 0 | 0 |
| 150 | Bahamas | 141 | 1 | 0 |
| 151 | Belize | 128 | -3 | -18 |
| 152 | Hong Kong | 124 | 2 | -7 |
| 153 | New Caledonia | 122 | 12 | 18 |
| 154 | India | 115 | 4 | 3 |
| 154 | Madagascar | 115 | -2 | -24 |
| 156 | Chad | 110 | -2 | -21 |
| 157 | Palestine | 109 | 0 | -8 |
| 158 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 108 | 0 | -4 |
| 159 | Guinea-Bissau | 106 | -9 | -36 |
| 159 | Mongolia | 106 | 1 | 0 |
| 161 | Maldives | 105 | 1 | 0 |
| 161 | Philippines | 105 | 1 | 0 |
| 163 | Myanmar | 98 | 5 | -1 |
| 164 | Swaziland | 96 | 8 | 6 |
| 165 | Malta | 94 | 2 | -8 |
| 166 | Aruba | 92 | 4 | 0 |
| 166 | Equatorial Guinea | 92 | -12 | -39 |
| 168 | Chinese Taipei | 89 | 1 | -8 |
| 168 | Lebanon | 89 | -8 | -17 |
| 170 | Cambodia | 84 | 6 | 1 |
| 170 | Cayman Islands | 84 | 2 | -6 |
| 170 | Sri Lanka | 84 | 4 | -2 |
| 173 | Seychelles | 82 | 2 | -3 |
| 174 | Vanuatu | 81 | -12 | -24 |
| 175 | Tahiti | 79 | 8 | 22 |
| 176 | Pakistan | 78 | -6 | -14 |
| 177 | Comoros | 75 | 5 | 7 |
| 177 | Curacao | 75 | -11 | -28 |
| 177 | Kyrgyzstan | 75 | 0 | -4 |
| 180 | Laos | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| 180 | Nicaragua | 71 | -1 | -4 |
| 182 | Afghanistan | 70 | -1 | 0 |
| 183 | Solomon Islands | 69 | -6 | -10 |
| 184 | St. Lucia | 63 | 0 | 9 |
| 185 | Lesotho | 49 | 0 | 9 |
| 186 | Guam | 36 | 11 | 26 |
| 187 | Mauritius | 33 | 1 | -2 |
| 188 | Bermuda | 30 | -3 | -10 |
| 189 | Eritrea | 28 | 0 | -1 |
| 190 | Papua New Guinea | 26 | 13 | 26 |
| 191 | British Virgin Islands | 25 | -4 | -13 |
| 191 | Macau | 25 | 1 | 0 |
| 193 | Mauritania | 23 | -3 | -4 |
| 193 | Somalia | 23 | 0 | 0 |
| 195 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| 196 | Djibouti | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 197 | Cook Islands | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| 198 | Anguilla | 9 | 2 | 2 |
| 198 | Brunei Darussalam | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| 200 | Bhutan | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| 201 | Timor-Leste | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 201 | Tonga | 3 | -7 | -12 |
| 203 | American Samoa | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | Andorra | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | Montserrat | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | Samoa | 0 | -12 | -26 |
| 203 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Eek! Where do the points go?! We win two qualifiers and drop 88pts? Why?
ReplyDeleteOh well, 4th place has been fun for the reaction. It kind of looks like FIFA "fixed" the top end of the ranking, and made it "how it should be" with that setup. "Oh, Spain lost the top spot, we'd better take some points off the Netherlands to correct that." "Eh, how did England get so high! We'd better hit them with a sledgehammer, they're way too high!"
And why do Portugal bag 98pts for a win over Cyprus? Big changes here. Argentina predicted to be booted from the top 10 too to join France.
Wow, drop 305pts if we lose those games. We must have lost something BIG for this. What happened?
ReplyDelete@Lorric: That's just how the FIFA rankings work. The problem is that because of the shifting of old results, you can't really predict the new ranking and it doesn't necessarily reflect the current results!
ReplyDeleteThe ranking is just horrible and I don't understand why FIFA don't use a ranking system close to the ELO ratings. I mean even women's football has a better ranking!
Yes, I think both rankings have their good points and bad points. A fusion of the two would work best for me. Elo is certainly better than FIFA though.
ReplyDeleteEdgar, could I trouble you for a breakdown on the points England will end up with depending on results? I know about 2 wins and two defeats. What about the combinations inbetween? Beat Bulgaria and tie Wales? Beat Wales and tie Bulgaria? Beat Bulgaria, lose to Wales? Beat Wales and lose to Bulgaria? Two draws? Tie Bulgaria, lose to Wales? And finally, tie Wales, and lose to Bulgaria? With such huge differences to the points totals, I'd like to know, if you don't mind.
@Lorric
ReplyDeleteFor the last three years England won massive points in qualifying games in september against Switzerland and Bulgaria (2010) and Croatia (2009 and 2008). These results devaluate this coming month.
Wins over Bulgaria and Wales next weekend will soften the blow...
@ Ed
ReplyDeleteHmmm, I always thought it would be the month previous that would devalue, but thinking about it logically, I see why now. Thanks. September has been a big, big month for English teams the last three years! I hope that trend continues this month!
@ Ed
ReplyDeleteI've been looking back at previous Septembers. England have been scorching hot the last five! Take a look:
2006
England 5 Andorra 0
Macedonia 0 England 1
2007
England 3 Israel 0
England 3 Russia 0
2008
Andorra 0 England 2
Croatia 1 England 4
2009
England 2 Slovenia 1
England 5 Croatia 1
2010
Switzerland 1 England 3
England 4 Bulgaria 0
Magnificent. Long may it continue!
JUST ONE INFO, INDIA WONT BE 154TH IN SEPT, BECAUSE BOTH INDIA'S MATCH AGAINST PAK HVE BEEN CANCELED AND MAYBE 1 MATCH MAY TAKE PLACE LATER IN MID-SEPT SO CAN U RE CALCULATE BY HOW MANY PLACES WILL WE FALL BY??!! THANKS
ReplyDeleteFAN FROM INDIA
@ Lorric
ReplyDeleteEngland will have the following points after this weekend's matches:
BUL win, WAL win : 1089 pts
BUL win, WAL draw : 1037 pts
BUL win, WAL loss : 1011 pts
BUL draw, WAL win : 996 pts
BUL draw, WAL draw : 944 pts
BUL draw, WAL loss : 918 pts
BUL loss, WAL win : 950 pts
BUL loss, WAL draw : 898 pts
BUL loss, WAL loss : 872 pts
As you can see a win against Bulgaria is necessary to limit the damage.
Hey Fan from India,
ReplyDeletethe two friendly defeats in the Caribbean caused a loss of 6 points (112 to 106 pts) in the september-ranking and with that a drop of 2 places from 158 to 160 for India.
@ Ed
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot Ed. You don't have "gar" on the end of that, but you'll do for me! :)
Lorric, you're welcome.
ReplyDeleteJust trying to save Edgar some work with answering all those questions regarding that difficult ranking-system, which btw isn't so horrible as Lusankya suggested above. Recent results have the highest weight, so it should reflect the recent form of teams quite good.
Don't get me wrong, I also like the ELO-rating better, because the teams are ranked more stabile in that system. Especially the devaluation of past results causes sometimes a strange 'plunge' in the ranking (as this month with England) which is not conform expectations or reality (read: recent form).
@Ed
ReplyDeleteThanks for all the help! :)
Really Mexico goes down by two places and they haven't loss yet >:(
ReplyDelete