The coefficients for the EURO 2012 final draw will take into account results from:
EURO 2008 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
Hosts Poland (23806) and Ukraine (28029) will be seeded for the final draw, along with 2008 winners, Spain and the team with the best coefficient of the qualified teams - most likely the Netherlands.
Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands have already qualified.
The ranking computed after the October qualifiers will be used to seed the teams for the EURO 2012 play-offs.
Best movers:
4 - Scotland, Estonia and Armenia
3 - Serbia, Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Latvia
2 - Turkey, Switzerland, Iceland and Luxembourg
Worst movers:
-5 - Israel
-4 - Montenegro and Abalnia
-3 - Slovenia and Northern Ireland
Rank - Previous rank - Team - Total points
1 1 Spain 40016 2 2 Netherlands 39660 3 3 Germany 37966 4 5 England 33063 5 4 Italy 32697 6 7 Croatia 31523 7 6 Russia 30671 8 8 Greece 29995 9 9 Portugal 29677 10 10 Sweden 29235 11 11 France 28848 12 12 Denmark 28105 13 16 Serbia 27595 14 13 Slovakia 26654 15 14 Czech Republic 26456 16 18 Turkey 26421 17 19 Switzerland 26245 18 17 Ireland 25743 19 22 Hungary 25710 20 15 Israel 25702 21 21 Norway 25543 22 25 Bosnia-Herzegovina 25498 23 20 Slovenia 24423 24 24 Finland 24293 25 26 Romania 24168 26 23 Northern Ireland 23039 27 31 Scotland 22951 28 28 Belarus 22238 29 27 Bulgaria 22214 30 33 Latvia 21985 31 30 Austria 21586 32 32 Belgium 21319 33 29 Montenegro 21313 34 34 Lithuania 19781 35 39 Estonia 19134 36 37 Wales 18557 37 41 Armenia 18506 38 36 Macedonia 18424 39 35 Albania 17564 40 38 Cyprus 16636 41 40 Georgia 16582 42 44 Iceland 15392 43 42 Moldova 15162 44 45 Azerbaijan 15011 45 43 Kazakhstan 14298 46 48 Luxembourg 13245 47 46 Liechtenstein 13030 48 47 Faroe Islands 12176 49 49 Malta 10679 50 50 Andorra 8627 51 51 San Marino 7642
If the teams with the best coefficient qualify the final draw pot would look like this:
Pot 1: Poland, Ukraine, Spain, Netherlands
Pot 2: Germany, England, Italy, Croatia
Pot 3: Russia, Greece, Portugal, Sweden
Pot 4: France, Denmark, Serbia, Czech Republic
Croatia replace Russia in the second pot.
Serbia replace Slovakia in the fourth pot.
Nice to see England still holding on to the 4th place in this ranking. I'm looking forward to the San Marino games in World Cup qualifying. They ought to pad our ranking in this system very nicely.
ReplyDeletecan the netherlands survive a loss or draw in their last 2 games and still maintain #2, assuming germany wins out?
ReplyDeleteim worried about their last game, away in sweden. they might not show up
Strickly speaking guys, Slovakia in theory should be in there ahead of their neighbours Czech Republic based on the number crunching, I know Armenia has a better chance, but Slovakia are not mathematically out.
ReplyDeleteAccording to current (estimated) Elo rankings, this draw pot could in principal create a group of death with Spain (ranked 1), Germany (3), Portugal (8) and France (14), and a group of life with Poland (39), Italy (11), Greece (28) and Czechia (32).
ReplyDeleteSwitch Croatia with italy and u get group of life(how stupid this sounds)
ReplyDeleteEdgar, why are you counting in the unplayed mathes, giving 10000 points to each team? Wouldn't it be better to leave them out completely (0 pts and -2 matches played)? The point differences between the teams would then be more telling of what the final ranking will look like.
ReplyDeleteIf Hungary get more points against Finland than Sweden do vs. Finland away and Holland at home, Hungary get to the playoff instead of the Scandinavians. Let's hope the Dutch give their best.
ReplyDeleteTo answer EB, I wouldn't worry. If we win the game against Moldova at home then our number 2 position is safe. We could then quite safely lose 20-0 to Sweden in the last game. If the Germans draw away in Turkey then Holland can afford to lose both games by 1-0.
ReplyDeleteAnd to answer MV, I always do the calculation as you suggest: http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html
@MV
ReplyDeleteBecause at the start of a new cycle the ranking looks strange - for instance in August 2008, Kazakhstan - Andorra 3 - 0 was the first and only WCQ played in Europe. With the system you're suggesting (and Homer is using on World-Results.net) Kazakhstan would have been top of the table. That's why I use this method.
That's a bad example. There isn't even any need to calculate new standings with only one match played. Or before the first round is finished, with every team playing at least a game. But I understand what you mean. Many teams would have a 40000 pts average after the first round. You think this is bad, but I think it's good. The point differences between the teams would be bigger and progress would be much more visible, and the whole process of calculating the standings would then have more sense.
ReplyDeleteI like this approach (although it wasn't my idea), because the values won't fluctuate wildly after each round.
ReplyDeleteBut thanks to Homer, there's always World-Results.net for those that don't like the way I compute the coefficient. ;)
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ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteCan Ireland jump any of the following with a win against Armenia : Turkey, Czech Republic or Serbia (and these teams winning as well)? Would a draw somehow be enough? Inquiring minds would like to know
ReplyDeleteCoop:
ReplyDeleteIreland are currently ahead of both Turkey and Czech Republic (source http://www.world-results.net/uefa/ranking.html ) If Ireland win by one goal against Armenia, then my calculations suggest the Czech Republic would need to win by 11 goals and Turkey would need to win by 32 goals to pass Ireland.
Serbia only need a draw in the last match to stay ahead of Ireland in the rankings (but a draw isn't enough for them to finish 2nd as they would then lose on head-to-head to Estonia)
Thanks for the info Haakon. Do you happen to know what would happen if Ireland draw? Would Turk and Czech be able to jump them? If so Trap better go for the W tomorrow ... though he probably won't
ReplyDeleteOne Question: Will the results of the Playoffs count for the rankings used for the finals draw? I know the ranking system and the problem is, that the teams qualified per winning a playoff can get a better position (in best case: two more wins) in the rankings as teams that have qualified directly and don't have the chance to push up their coefficient. Wouldn't that be unfair?
ReplyDeleteI hope you've understood my English because I come from Germany but I didn't find a better place to ask this question.
@Coop: possible points for Ireland
ReplyDeletewith a win: 28,203 (add 20 per goal)
with a draw: 27,383
with a loss: 26,963 (subtract 20 per goal)
The Czechs are on 27,906 with a 1-goal win against Lithuania. Turkey are on 27,621 with a 1-goal win. (And Serbia finish on 29,215 with a 1-goal win.)
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@Simon: Yes, the play-offs count (see the twitter account FootballRanks which is run by our webmaster Edgar) but because of the averaging of points per match, the system demands a strong performance in the play-offs for rankings to improve to the point where it matters. If Croatia win their play-off with a win and a draw, for example, their ranking only improves by 200 points. And very few teams win both legs in the play-offs.
Also, the play-offs are very important matches for both teams and any good ranking system should try to consider all competitive matches a team has played.
@ Haakon
ReplyDeleteYou get bonus points for playffs too, don't you? Does that include those too in your calculation?
@Lorric
ReplyDeleteWell thought of, but yes I did :p
An easy way to illustrate why the ranking goes up: Croatia has 32346 points now which means 2.23 points per match (excluding all bonuses and subtracting the 10000 points for a loss). Play-offs carry 6000 points bonus - that is 0.6 per match - so they would need to get more than 4.46 - 1.2 = 3.26 points per match to improve their ranking.
You the man (or woman) Haakon. I'm e-mailing the FAI to make sure they know about this, haha
ReplyDeleteOne last question ... Bosnia wouldn't jump Ireland with a draw @ France and an Ireland win over Armenia, would they? Wouldn't think so, but just wanted to make sure.
ReplyDeleteCoop: a draw puts Bosnia on 27,198. Well behind Ireland.
ReplyDeletealso don't forget that if Ireland lose, Armenia would be on the play-offs instead
ReplyDeletearmenia,estonia,scotland,b&h,belguim & norway are
ReplyDeleteNot gonna get through!
i looked on wiki euro 2012 q and it says that denmark are at least in the play offs,norway ca'nt win group and portugal nothing how is this possible????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
ReplyDelete@Haakon
ReplyDeleteThanks for answering Coop and Lorric.
@Anonymous
Head to head results.
love it bro
ReplyDeleteI am hoping for the following group:
ReplyDeletePoland
England
Russia
Ireland
This would be fantastic!!!