The coefficients for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw will take into account results from:
2010 World Cup (qualifiers and final tournament) - 20% of total weighting
EURO 2012 (qualifiers and final tournament) - 40% of total weighting
2014 World Cup (qualifiers) - 40% of total weighting
Click here for more info on the coefficient system.
The qualifying format is already known: 9 groups (2 x 5, 7 x 6)
Top two from each group and the best team in third place advance. The other eight play-off for the final four spots.
Portugal replace Russia in the first pot.
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Turkey and Serbia replace Ireland, Israel, Montenegro and Czech Republic in the second pot.
Romania and Finland replace Northern Ireland and Belgium in the third pot.
Estonia replace Bulgaria in the fourth pot.
Wales and Iceland replace Cyprus and Kazakhstan in the fifth pot.
Best movers:
10 - Bosnia-Herzegovina
9 - Estonia
8 - Hungary
Worst movers:
-8 - Slovakia and Czech Republic
-7 - Ireland
-6 - Montenegro
Rank - Previous Rank - Team - Points
1 1 Netherlands 25947 2 2 Spain 25659 3 4 Italy 25522 4 5 England 25225 5 3 Germany 24659 6 9 Croatia 23095 7 6 Sweden 22282 8 7 Greece 22254 9 11 Portugal 21084 ------------------------------ 10 13 Denmark 20632 11 21 Bosnia-Herzegovina 20251 12 20 Hungary 19736 13 8 Russia 19126 14 18 Norway 18966 15 22 Turkey 18464 16 14 Ukraine 17951 17 24 Serbia 17274 18 10 Slovakia 17122 ------------------------------ 19 12 Ireland 17017 20 15 Israel 16730 21 27 Switzerland 16681 22 16 Montenegro 16631 23 28 Romania 16474 24 19 Slovenia 16466 25 17 Czech Republic 16078 26 29 Finland 15635 27 23 Belarus 15536 ------------------------------ 28 25 Northern Ireland 15041 29 26 Belgium 14931 30 39 Estonia 14879 31 36 Latvia 14664 32 30 Austria 13991 33 35 Armenia 13891 34 34 Scotland 13771 35 31 Poland 12751 36 33 Albania 12531 ------------------------------ 37 32 Bulgaria 12481 38 37 Georgia 12166 39 38 Lithuania 12150 40 44 Azerbaijan 11167 41 41 Macedonia 11100 42 40 Moldova 10247 43 47 Wales 10137 44 48 Iceland 10135 45 45 Liechtenstein 8870 ------------------------------ 46 42 Cyprus 8847 47 49 Luxembourg 8705 48 43 Kazakhstan 8521 49 46 Faroe Islands 8150 50 50 Malta 6174 51 51 Andorra 5240 52 52 San Marino 4140
He he. That's right, Germany! We're better than you! :)
ReplyDeleteNah. It's just amusing. I'd be afraid of them if we faced them.
England, masters of ranking systems! :)
I don't understand how England are ahead of Germany though. They've been perfect in the qualifying group this time while England have not. They surpassed England in the World Cup, even beating England directly. England were only slightly better in World Cup qualifing (W9 L1 vs. W8 D2) How are England ahead?!
I'd say it was Finland earning two draws that did it.
ReplyDeleteIt's looking promising for Wales, we should end up in the 4th pot but I think there's a possibility of getting into the 3rd pot. Especially with Belarus, Georgia and Finland all being stuck in a 5 team group with France and Spain.
Don't forget Belarus bested France head to head this campaign. France are lucky Belarus couldn't take advantage of it. Kind of like Scotland in Euro 2008 qualifying. France have all the luck, Ireland had them in 2010 qualifying and they cheated to win.
ReplyDeleteHow Finland get those 15635 points?
ReplyDeleteWC 2010, 10 games, 280014 points, average 28001,4 weighting 20% = 5600,28
EURO 2012, 8 games 170515 points, average 21314,38 weighting 40% = 8525,75
Together 14126
What I do wrong?
I think Edgar may have made a mistake here. (Very rare for him!)
ReplyDeleteAs above for Finland, similar differences exist e.g. for Belarus and Northern Ireland.
Belarus:
WC 2010 232519 points 23252 average 20% weighting 4650
Euro2012 210506 points 23390 average 40% weighting 9356
total 14006
NI:
WC 2010 252013 points 25201 average 20% weighting 5040
Euro2012 170008 points 21251 average 40% weighting 8500
total 13541
However, if I play around with my inputs when I deduct two matches from Euro2012 qualification I get the same points as Edgar.
(I.e. Finland and Northern Ireland would have played 6 matches instead of 8, and Belarus 7 instead of 9. The number of wins, draws and goals kept same.)
So could you, Edgar, please check that your inputs and formulae are correct.
(P.S. Thanks for excellent blog!)
When will the draw be made and which ranking will be actual at that time?
ReplyDeleteHow can Italy be in front of Germany? Germany were better at the WC 2010 and have a better record for EQ games. Don't understand that.
ReplyDeleteI don't understand either, that what I get
ReplyDeleteItaly WC 2010, 13 games, 413023 points, av 31771, weighting 0,2 = 6354,20
Italy EU 2012, 8 games, 307516 points, av 38439,50, weighting 0,4 = 15375,80
Italy total = 21730
Germany WC 2010, 17 games, 687042 points, av 40414,24, weighting 0,2 = 8082,85
Germany EU 2012, 8 games, 331528 points, wv 41441, weighting 0,4 = 16576,40
Germany total = 24659,25
@Dönci: The draw will take place at least after the 2014 World Cup qualifiers have been completed, my guess will be somewehere at the beginning of 2014.
ReplyDeleteThe ranking will consist of the 2010 World Cup qualifying and final tournament results (20%), the Euro2012 qualifying and final tournament results (40%) and the 2014 World Cup qualifiying results (40%).
Ha ha, I hadn't even thought about Italy! Germany's record is better than England's and England are in front. England's record is better than Italy's and Italy are in front. What's going on?!
ReplyDeleteTiksa found the answer. I didn't include remaining matches as losses. Will do in the next update.
ReplyDeleteSo this is just like the World-Results.net ranking (if Homer would have one for the 2016 draw).
Tobcoach - thanks for the help!