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Friday, September 30, 2011

FIFA Ranking: October 2011 probable ranking (II)

See why I had to post an unscheduled update.

Next update: 14 October 2011.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 19 October.

Spain's top spot in danger, but Netherlands need results to go their way to return to the top.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Suriname, St. Kitts and Nevis, Zambia and Ecuador expected to climb 15 or more places.

Bolivia, Cyprus, Montenegro, New Zealand, US Virgin Islands and Finland expected to drop 15 or more places.

Probable October 2011 rank - Team - Probable October 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1624 0 19
2 Netherlands 1557 0 -14
3 Germany 1352 0 62
4 Uruguay 1230 0 46
5 England 1210 3 121
6 Italy 1135 0 -7
7 Brazil 1122 0 -10
8 Portugal 1095 -3 -63
9 Argentina 1088 1 64
10 Croatia 1062 -1 5
11 France 1027 1 71
12 Switzerland 1023 6 137
13 Russia 975 0 21
14 Greece 957 -3 -43
15 Chile 941 -1 9
16 Japan 924 -1 0
17 Denmark 922 0 29
18 Côte d'Ivoire 899 -2 -11
19 Serbia 892 2 37
20 Mexico 869 0 3
21 Australia 868 -2 -14
22 Norway 839 1 4
23 Bosnia-Herzegovina 821 -1 -18
24 Sweden 820 1 28
25 Republic of Ireland 812 4 63
26 Paraguay 808 -2 -17
27 Turkey 803 0 49
28 Egypt 775 8 62
29 Korea Republic 770 0 21
30 Hungary 765 -3 11
31 Colombia 757 1 19
32 Ghana 734 5 34
33 USA 727 -2 -14
34 Algeria 713 12 108
35 Peru 688 0 -36
36 Slovenia 687 -3 -45
37 Nigeria 683 6 70
38 Romania 680 11 96
39 Belgium 670 -5 -59
40 Israel 669 -2 -8
41 South Africa 666 10 92
42 Iran 645 8 69
43 Slovakia 629 -4 -33
44 Senegal 626 -2 12
45 Cameroon 612 3 16
46 Jamaica 602 -1 -4
47 Czech Republic 600 -7 -56
48 Montenegro 586 -22 -191
49 Scotland 581 3 9
50 Burkina Faso 578 -9 -73
50 Panama 578 3 14
52 Morocco 566 7 32
53 Ecuador 559 16 78
54 Venezuela 557 -7 -41
55 Ukraine 551 5 20
56 Armenia 542 -12 -68
56 Honduras 542 -3 -22
56 Tunisia 542 5 16
59 Bulgaria 539 -4 -19
60 Costa Rica 522 -3 -27
61 Mali 517 1 -2
62 China PR 497 11 28
63 Zimbabwe 496 3 6
64 Estonia 495 -6 -42
65 Belarus 494 -9 -60
65 Poland 494 0 -2
67 Zambia 485 16 76
68 Georgia 475 -4 -24
69 Gabon 473 -2 -16
70 Trinidad and Tobago 466 10 52
71 Libya 462 -9 -57
72 Sierra Leone 455 -4 -33
73 Northern Ireland 453 -3 -24
74 Canada 452 13 57
75 Latvia 447 -1 -13
76 Austria 442 1 0
77 Uzbekistan 430 2 9
78 Jordan 428 7 22
79 El Salvador 426 9 36
80 Albania 424 -9 -50
81 Malawi 418 -3 -21
82 Lithuania 416 -7 -43
83 Uganda 411 -1 0
84 Guinea 405 -8 -42
85 Angola 404 -1 -3
85 Cape Verde Islands 404 6 32
87 FYR Macedonia 400 7 34
88 Finland 394 -16 -77
89 Botswana 386 6 22
90 Antigua and Barbuda 381 11 36
91 Qatar 371 9 21
92 Togo 359 3 -5
93 Kuwait 358 6 6
94 Suriname 353 19 67
95 Niger 352 -2 -17
96 Wales 346 -6 -28
97 Saudi Arabia 345 0 -14
98 Iraq 344 9 37
99 Guatemala 340 10 38
100 Benin 334 -8 -36
101 Cuba 332 2 0
101 Haiti 332 7 27
103 Guyana 330 13 52
104 Bahrain 324 -2 -11
105 Sudan 321 -2 -11
106 Oman 317 -1 -2
106 St. Kitts and Nevis 317 17 65
108 New Zealand 310 -19 -67
108 Syria 310 1 8
110 Iceland 300 -4 -16
111 Azerbaijan 296 -14 -63
112 Mozambique 281 3 1
113 Gambia 280 12 32
114 United Arab Emirates 276 -2 -11
115 Thailand 275 2 1
116 Bolivia 273 -35 -139
117 Korea DPR 268 4 10
118 Luxembourg 263 -4 -21
119 Cyprus 259 -33 -139
120 Faroe Islands 257 6 13
121 Grenada 255 -1 -10
121 Moldova 255 1 0
123 Central African Republic 251 -12 -45
124 Liechtenstein 249 -6 -21
125 Namibia 248 -6 -21
126 Tajikistan 232 -2 -18
126 Tanzania 232 1 -8
128 Congo DR 223 1 -2
129 Vietnam 222 1 13
130 Liberia 216 -2 -14
131 Ethiopia 213 2 17
132 Belize 197 2 2
133 Kazakhstan 196 -1 -2
134 Kenya 189 -3 -11
135 Singapore 185 1 -3
136 Barbados 184 14 36
137 Bangladesh 183 1 0
137 Burundi 183 4 4
139 Indonesia 178 0 -4
140 Rwanda 177 3 -1
141 Nepal 176 -6 -17
142 Dominican Republic 173 -3 -9
143 Turkmenistan 172 -2 -7
144 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 162 14 47
145 Fiji 158 2 0
145 Yemen 158 -8 -27
147 Puerto Rico 157 -2 -16
148 Malaysia 155 -1 -3
149 Dominica 151 0 -3
150 Lebanon 146 -4 -17
151 Congo 144 -7 -33
152 Bahamas 141 0 0
153 Hong Kong 139 3 15
154 Malta 128 0 -10
154 New Caledonia 128 1 0
156 Philippines 125 10 20
157 Palestine 121 5 13
158 Equatorial Guinea 118 -6 -23
159 India 115 4 9
159 Lesotho 115 1 2
159 Nicaragua 115 -3 -9
162 Maldives 114 4 9
163 Madagascar 110 -5 -5
164 Chinese Taipei 108 8 19
165 Guinea-Bissau 106 -2 0
165 Mongolia 106 -2 0
167 US Virgin Islands 104 -16 -40
168 Myanmar 101 0 3
169 Chad 99 -8 -11
170 Swaziland 98 -1 2
171 Aruba 92 -1 0
172 Pakistan 91 -2 -1
173 Vanuatu 88 0 0
174 Cambodia 85 0 1
175 Sri Lanka 83 1 0
176 Seychelles 82 1 0
177 Curacao 79 1 4
178 Solomon Islands 75 0 0
179 Laos 74 3 3
180 Tahiti 73 4 5
181 Comoros 72 -3 -3
182 Afghanistan 69 1 -1
183 Bermuda 67 6 37
184 St. Lucia 53 1 7
185 Cayman Islands 51 -11 -33
186 Kyrgyzstan 49 -8 -26
187 Guam 36 -1 0
188 Papua New Guinea 34 -1 0
189 Mauritius 32 -1 -1
190 Eritrea 28 0 0
191 Macau 25 0 0
192 British Virgin Islands 23 -1 -2
192 Somalia 23 1 0
194 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 1 0
195 Djibouti 12 1 0
196 Cook Islands 10 1 0
197 Anguilla 9 1 0
197 Brunei Darussalam 9 1 0
199 Bhutan 6 1 0
200 Mauritania 4 -7 -19
201 Timor-Leste 3 0 0
201 Tonga 3 0 0
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Andorra 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 Samoa 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

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8 comments:

  1. AnonymousSeptember 30, 2011 at 10:09 PM

    can i ask a question?? where does the 20 points for the philippines came from?? i mean they didnt win a game.. just asking.. hope u answer.. from nepal actually.. getting ready for the nepal - philippines match.. :)

    ReplyDelete
  2. AlexSeptember 30, 2011 at 11:22 PM

    @Anonymous: This is a projection of the October ranking (to be released on 19 October) based on the probable results listed in this post.

    In other words, the Philippines would gain 20 points in the October ranking if they would achieve wins over Macau and Nepal, losses to Hong Kong and Singapore, and a draw against Chinese Taipei.

    (Also, it is not unusual to gain or lose points in the ranking even without playing any games, because of devaluation of past years' results.)

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousOctober 1, 2011 at 5:59 AM

    @alex.. tnx a lot mate.. that helped.. :D

    ReplyDelete
  4. UnknownOctober 12, 2011 at 10:31 AM

    Using FIFAs predictor Wales will have 619 points which would have put us 45th in this predicted table.

    I'll be happy with 50th ;)

    ReplyDelete
  5. TobcoachOctober 12, 2011 at 11:23 AM

    @stuart: get ready to party: Wales will be 45th in the October ranking. Also big improvements for Denmark (10th), Sweden (14th). Big drop for Bulgaria (75th). The 'race' for the number 1 spot is over, for now. Holland isn't a threat anymore, and the Dutch better beware of Germany, they are closing in on Holland.

    ReplyDelete
  6. EdOctober 12, 2011 at 11:26 AM

    Well Stuart,

    you can be happy with 45th spot, because that's exactly the position where Wales is going to end up in the october-ranking.
    Nice performance by the Welsh. Congrats!

    Btw, where are those Faroe Islands ?

    ReplyDelete
  7. TobcoachOctober 12, 2011 at 11:44 AM

    Stuart,

    Some additional information: if you look at the last 12 months (i.e. the last timeframe which makes 50% of the ranking points), Wales is in 18th spot.

    The 45th place in the October ranking will be the highest position since september 1995, when Wales reached 34th position.

    In the early stages of the rankings, Wales was a country well into the top-40, with a peak of 27th in August 1993 (the very first official ranking), February and March 1994.

    From that moment onwards, they slowly but surely slided down the rankings. They had a short return near the top-50 in September 2007. Wales'negative record was set just two months ago, when they were placed 117th.

    So you can call this a remarkable rise up the rankings, and I hope Wales can hold on to this position and maybe progress even a little bit further.

    ReplyDelete
  8. EdOctober 12, 2011 at 11:49 AM

    Tobcoach,

    off-topic but... in another thread I read your question about a breakdown of the points per match as an extra feature in the interactive FIFA-ranking site to optimize your own database.
    I can deliver that for all countries for the september 2011 ranking in an Excel-sheet.
    If you are interested, let me know and also how I can send that sheet to you.

    Greetings, Ed

    ReplyDelete