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Friday, September 23, 2011

FIFA Ranking: October 2011 probable ranking

Next update: 14 October 2011.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 19 October.

Spain's top spot in danger, but Netherlands need results to go their way to return to the top.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Suriname, Zambia, Ecuador, St. Kitts and Nevis and St. Vincent and the Grenadines (difficult to make a list when these two are involved) expected to climb 15 or more places.

Bolivia, Cyprus, Montenegro, New Zealand, US Virgin Islands and Finland expected to drop 15 or more places.

Probable October 2011 rank - Team - Probable October 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1 Spain 1624 0 19
2 Netherlands 1557 0 -14
3 Germany 1352 0 62
4 Uruguay 1230 0 46
5 England 1210 3 121
6 Italy 1135 0 -7
7 Brazil 1122 0 -10
8 Portugal 1094 -3 -64
9 Argentina 1088 1 64
10 Croatia 1062 -1 5
11 France 1027 1 71
12 Switzerland 1023 6 137
13 Russia 975 0 21
14 Greece 957 -3 -43
15 Chile 941 -1 9
16 Denmark 922 1 29
17 Japan 911 -2 -13
18 Côte d'Ivoire 900 -2 -10
19 Serbia 892 2 37
20 Mexico 869 0 3
21 Australia 867 -2 -15
22 Norway 839 1 4
23 Bosnia-Herzegovina 821 -1 -18
24 Sweden 820 1 28
25 Republic of Ireland 812 4 63
26 Paraguay 808 -2 -17
27 Turkey 803 0 49
28 Egypt 775 8 62
29 Korea Republic 770 0 21
30 Hungary 765 -3 11
31 Colombia 757 1 19
32 Ghana 734 5 34
33 USA 727 -2 -14
34 Algeria 713 12 108
35 Peru 688 0 -36
36 Slovenia 687 -3 -45
37 Nigeria 683 6 70
38 Romania 680 11 96
39 Belgium 670 -5 -59
40 Israel 669 -2 -8
41 South Africa 666 10 92
42 Iran 644 8 68
43 Cameroon 634 5 38
44 Slovakia 629 -5 -33
45 Senegal 626 -3 12
46 Jamaica 602 -1 -4
47 Czech Republic 600 -7 -56
48 Montenegro 586 -22 -191
49 Scotland 581 3 9
50 Burkina Faso 578 -9 -73
50 Panama 578 3 14
52 Morocco 567 7 33
53 Ecuador 559 16 78
54 Venezuela 557 -7 -41
55 Bulgaria 554 0 -4
56 Armenia 542 -12 -68
56 Honduras 542 -3 -22
56 Tunisia 542 5 16
59 Ukraine 524 1 -7
60 Costa Rica 522 -3 -27
61 Mali 518 1 -1
62 Belarus 511 -6 -43
63 China PR 496 10 27
63 Zimbabwe 496 3 6
65 Estonia 495 -7 -42
66 Zambia 485 17 76
67 Poland 481 -2 -15
68 Georgia 475 -4 -24
69 Gabon 470 -2 -19
70 Trinidad and Tobago 466 10 52
71 Libya 462 -9 -57
72 Sierra Leone 455 -4 -33
73 Canada 453 14 58
73 Northern Ireland 453 -3 -24
75 Latvia 447 -1 -13
76 Austria 443 1 1
77 Uzbekistan 430 2 9
78 Jordan 428 7 22
79 El Salvador 427 9 37
80 Albania 424 -9 -50
81 Malawi 418 -3 -21
82 Lithuania 416 -7 -43
83 Uganda 411 -1 0
84 Guinea 405 -8 -42
85 Angola 404 -1 -3
85 Cape Verde Islands 404 6 32
87 FYR Macedonia 400 7 34
88 Finland 394 -16 -77
89 Botswana 386 6 22
90 Antigua and Barbuda 381 12 36
90 Qatar 381 7 21
92 Suriname 364 21 78
93 Syria 362 8 15
94 Kuwait 359 6 7
94 Togo 359 1 -5
96 Niger 352 -3 -17
97 Wales 346 -7 -28
98 Saudi Arabia 345 0 -14
99 Guatemala 341 11 39
100 Iraq 340 9 37
101 Benin 335 -9 -35
102 Cuba 332 3 0
102 Haiti 332 6 27
104 Guyana 331 12 53
105 Sudan 327 -2 -11
106 Bahrain 324 -2 -11
107 Oman 317 -1 -2
107 St. Kitts and Nevis 317 16 65
109 New Zealand 310 -20 -67
110 Iceland 300 -3 -16
111 Azerbaijan 296 -13 -63
112 Mozambique 281 3 1
113 Gambia 280 11 32
114 United Arab Emirates 276 -2 -11
115 Thailand 275 2 1
116 Bolivia 273 -35 -139
117 Korea DPR 268 4 10
118 Luxembourg 263 -4 -21
119 Cyprus 259 -33 -139
120 Faroe Islands 257 5 13
121 Grenada 255 -1 -10
121 Moldova 255 1 0
123 Central African Republic 251 -12 -45
124 Liechtenstein 249 -6 -21
125 Namibia 248 -6 -21
126 Tanzania 232 0 -8
127 Congo DR 223 1 -2
128 Vietnam 222 1 13
129 Liberia 216 -2 -14
130 Ethiopia 213 2 17
131 Belize 197 2 2
132 Kazakhstan 196 -1 -2
133 Kenya 189 -3 -11
134 Singapore 185 2 -3
135 Barbados 184 14 36
136 Bangladesh 183 2 0
136 Burundi 183 4 4
138 Dominican Republic 180 -3 -9
139 Indonesia 178 0 -4
140 Rwanda 177 2 -1
141 Nepal 176 -7 -17
142 Turkmenistan 172 -2 -7
143 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 162 15 47
144 Fiji 158 2 0
144 Yemen 158 -7 -27
146 Puerto Rico 157 -2 -16
147 Malaysia 155 -1 -3
148 Dominica 151 0 -3
149 Lebanon 146 -4 -17
150 Congo 144 -7 -33
151 Bahamas 141 0 0
152 Equatorial Guinea 139 -1 -2
152 Hong Kong 139 3 15
154 Malta 128 -1 -10
154 New Caledonia 128 0 0
156 Philippines 126 9 21
157 Palestine 121 4 13
158 India 115 4 9
158 Nicaragua 115 -3 -9
160 Maldives 114 5 9
161 Tajikistan 112 -4 -5
162 Madagascar 110 -4 -5
163 Chinese Taipei 108 9 19
164 Guinea-Bissau 106 -2 0
164 Lesotho 106 3 2
164 Mongolia 106 -2 0
167 US Virgin Islands 104 -17 -40
168 Myanmar 101 0 3
169 Chad 99 -9 -11
170 Swaziland 97 -1 2
171 Aruba 92 -1 0
172 Pakistan 91 -2 -1
173 Vanuatu 88 0 0
174 Cambodia 85 0 1
175 Sri Lanka 83 1 0
176 Seychelles 82 1 0
177 Curacao 76 1 -3
178 Solomon Islands 75 1 0
179 Laos 74 3 3
180 Tahiti 73 4 5
181 Comoros 72 -2 -3
182 Afghanistan 69 1 -1
183 Bermuda 67 6 37
184 St. Lucia 53 1 7
185 Cayman Islands 51 -11 -33
186 Kyrgyzstan 49 -7 -26
187 Guam 36 -1 0
188 Papua New Guinea 34 -1 0
189 Mauritius 32 -1 -1
190 Eritrea 28 0 0
191 Macau 25 0 0
192 British Virgin Islands 23 -1 -2
192 Somalia 23 1 0
194 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 1 0
195 Djibouti 12 1 0
196 Cook Islands 10 1 0
197 Anguilla 9 1 0
197 Brunei Darussalam 9 1 0
199 Bhutan 6 1 0
200 Mauritania 4 -7 -19
201 Timor-Leste 3 0 0
201 Tonga 3 0 0
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Andorra 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 Samoa 0 0 0
203 San Marino 0 0 0

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

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22 comments:

  1. paqsSeptember 23, 2011 at 2:40 PM

    Edgar, can you do such a preview for the UEFA ranking? Or do you know another site that does?

    I'm interested in the seeding for the EURO 2012 playoffs.

    Great site, btw.

    ReplyDelete
  2. TobcoachSeptember 23, 2011 at 2:44 PM

    @paqs: it seems to me that is a bit more difficult, because the UEFA rankings doesn't look at the result of a game alone. It also considers the number of goals scored and the goal difference.

    The FIFA rankings only need to know who wins the game to decide the points.

    ReplyDelete
  3. paqsSeptember 23, 2011 at 3:00 PM

    Right .. but ELO generates results, doesn't it?

    ReplyDelete
  4. EdgarSeptember 23, 2011 at 3:03 PM

    @paqs

    Most of the non-draws are 1 - 0 results, so that doesn't help.

    I will look into this next Friday - time allowing...

    ReplyDelete
  5. HåkonSeptember 23, 2011 at 4:15 PM

    A long term idea.

    Voros converted his rankings to an expected goals for either team, then did simulations based on the Poisson distribution to come up with his winning chances.

    Given that ELO computes an expected winning percentage, one could run this process in reverse; go from the winning percentage and find out what amount of expected goals would give rise to that percentage of wins.

    Then you could run the model forward again, giving a percentage chance of each result (and thus also the most likely result to occur.)

    This is rather heavy statistics but I'd find it fun to do :)

    ReplyDelete
  6. LorricSeptember 23, 2011 at 4:29 PM

    121 points for beating Montenegro. Nice. Without Zlatko, and with them needing to beat England to have a chance of winning the group so being unable to sit in their defensive formation as they did at Wembley, England can win this. 1046pts for a loss. Anyone know what England would have for a draw? Big differences here.

    ReplyDelete
  7. MVSeptember 23, 2011 at 4:35 PM

    @Lorric
    They'll sit back, 2nd place is what they're aiming for. Haven't seen anything in the Montenegrin press about catching up Englad since the draw with Bulgaria, it's all about Switzerland for them.

    And their defense isn't as strong as it used to be. Especially their goalkeeper seems to have lost his form - a year ago he seemed like the best goalkeeper in the world :)

    ReplyDelete
  8. HåkonSeptember 23, 2011 at 4:43 PM

    @Lorric and win/loss/draw

    If England win they get 1210
    If England lose they get 1046

    A draw is 1/3 of a win as long as you play the same opponent

    Thus England get 164/3 = 55 extra points for a win

    1046 + 55 = 1101.

    ReplyDelete
  9. LorricSeptember 23, 2011 at 4:47 PM

    @ MV

    A draw would be an interesting result. Ah, the prospect of England being ripped apart in the press for taking a result which qualifies the national team to Euro 2012 at the head of their qualifying group... *facepalm*

    I'd be content with a draw, but seeing the points on offer I want a win. More importantly, it would also be useful for securing England's place in Pot B in the Euro Coefficient for the Euro 2012 draw, and it would also lay down a marker for World Cup qualifying as Montenegro are in our group again.

    ReplyDelete
  10. LorricSeptember 23, 2011 at 4:49 PM

    @ Hakon

    Thanks. I should have thought of that since I knew the gap between a win and a loss.

    ReplyDelete
  11. MVSeptember 23, 2011 at 4:54 PM

    @Hakon, I think your calculation is wrong. The points won in the match against Montenegro go in the overall pts in the last year, and are then average. So it's not that straightforward.

    ReplyDelete
  12. LorricSeptember 23, 2011 at 5:02 PM

    @ MV

    You know I was thinking that too, but I didn't know whether it would work like that or not. Now Hakon said it I went with him, but now I think you're probably right. Ah, the complexities of the FIFA Ranking...

    Edgar... help! :)

    ReplyDelete
  13. HåkonSeptember 23, 2011 at 5:03 PM

    @MV

    Yes, it is that straightforward. Work it out for yourself slowly if you want, you'll get the same result.

    It's a consequence of the fact that you can split up a fraction (the average over the last 12 months) into its constituent parts (points from match 1/number of matches + points from match 2/number of matches ...) So as long as you know what 3 points from match n / number of matches is, you can divide that by three to get the points for a draw.

    ReplyDelete
  14. MVSeptember 23, 2011 at 5:13 PM

    Yep, sorry. I actually do the same thing myself all the time. :D Just did it for Croatia's rivals.
    Somehow I've read your post wrong. I actually thought you've calculated a draw being worth 2/3 of a win, too.
    I've been posting too many comments here today. :D
    Sorry again.

    ReplyDelete
  15. ERicSeptember 23, 2011 at 6:02 PM

    Regarding lists:

    http://thegloss.com/beauty/why-the-oxford-comma-is-something-you-should-care-about-392/

    It should be "Suriname, Zambia, Ecuador, St. Kitts and Nevis, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines..."

    :)

    ReplyDelete
  16. UnknownSeptember 23, 2011 at 6:35 PM

    I'm guessing this is based on Wales losing to both Switzerland and Bulgaria.

    We'll rip Bulgaria a new one. The Swiss game will be close though.

    ReplyDelete
  17. LorricSeptember 23, 2011 at 10:08 PM

    @ Stuart

    Yes, Wales are predicted to lose to them both. Why so confident about Bulgaria? They already beat you at home. What makes you think you'll "rip Bulgaria a new one" on their own soil?

    ReplyDelete
  18. DönciSeptember 28, 2011 at 12:53 PM

    It's interesting that Turkey get 49 points for a defeat against Germany (?) and a win against Azerbaijan (97th on FIFA ranking list) while Hungary only get 11 (!!) for a win against Finland (72nd on the same list), don't you think? Or have I misunderstood something?

    ReplyDelete
  19. EdSeptember 28, 2011 at 4:48 PM

    Dönci,

    The ranking-points are calculated over all matches played in the last four years. For each match played a team gets 'match-points'. Each year the match-points are worth less and less, due to an applied weighting.
    Each year-timeframe has a weight: last year (months 1-12) counts for 1, the next year-timeframe (months 13-24) for 0.5, the next year-timeframe (months 25-36) for 0.3 and the fourth year-timeframe (months 37-48) counts for 0.2.

    So when the coming october-ranking is calculated a team loses ranking-points for matches played in september 2010, september 2009 and september 2008 because the match-points are multiplied with a lesser weight.

    So it's not only about the gained points in the matches played in the current month, but also about these "lost points" due to so-called devaluation of match-points. The difference between the gained points and the lost points decides whether a team gains or loses ranking points (compared to the september-ranking) and thus climbs or descends in the new october-ranking.

    Hope this sheds some light on the whole business.
    Look at http://www.fifa.com/mm/document/fifafacts/r&a-wr/52/00/97/fs-590_10e_wrpoints.pdf if you want to know all the details.

    ReplyDelete
  20. DönciSeptember 29, 2011 at 7:41 AM

    Oh okay, I always forget about that. Thanks, and sorry for the inconvenience... :)

    ReplyDelete
  21. UnknownSeptember 29, 2011 at 12:08 PM

    @Lorric.

    When we played Bulgaria at home we'd just sacked Toshack and brought Flynn in as caretaker.

    Flynn opted to leave Bellamy out so he could play for Cardiff (he was on loan FFS!) and play Ashley Williams in DM despite having decent players on the bench that could do that role. Probably just so he bring the woeful Danny Collins out of exile to partner the over the hill and mistake prone James Collins.

    He did better against the Swiss in the next match and the 4-1 scoreline really flattered them. Until the last 10 minutes it was still anyones game. A better ref would have seen them down to 10 men after Bale was elbowed in the face. Or at least offered him some form of protection.

    The team we have right now that battered Montenegro until Ramsey was taken off and should have beaten England will be completely different in terms of style and approach to the one that timidly lost 0-1 to them last year.

    I'd settle for a decent performance against the Swiss and a win against Bulgaria but there's no reason we cant beat them both.

    ReplyDelete
  22. EdgarSeptember 30, 2011 at 8:32 AM

    @Håkon

    I'm extremely short on time for the blog. I do have a family (with three kids) and a job. Of course, it would be ideal for me to be paid for doing statistics/writing on my blog - but until that happens (and I'm not holding my breath for it) I still have changes to implement, bugs to fix, deadlines to respect etc.

    @ERic Will try to brush up on my English grammar then :)

    @Ed Thanks for the help!

    ReplyDelete