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Monday, September 12, 2011

FIFA Ranking: September 2011 final preview

FIFA will publish the ranking on September 21.

Only one match left before the deadline: Argentina - Brazil, a friendly scheduled for 14 September in Cordoba, Argentina.

This is how the totals can change for these 8 teams.

Brazil (L:1118, D: 1132, W: 1159)
Argentina (L: 1014, D: 1024, W: 1046)

The values displayed in the table below are the lowest possible.


Biggest change is at the top - Netherlands' reign lasted only a month, as Spain claim 1st place again. A lot of movement in the top 10: Uruguay climb to 4th, Portugal jump 3 spots to 5th, England fall 4 places to 8th.

Papua New Guinea enter the ranking again - 187th. Samoa join the list of teams with 0 points.

Best movers:

28 - Estonia
27 - Armenia and Wales
26 - Togo and Tajikistan

Worst movers:

-34 - Moldova
-19 - Lithuania and Cape Verde Islands
-17 - Botswana and Gambia


Best movers in the top 50:

27 - Armenia
18 - Hungary
17 - Bosnia-Herzegovina

Worst movers in the top 50:

-15 - Belarus
-13 - Slovakia
-12 - Ukraine

Burkina Faso overtake Nigeria for 4th in Africa. Senegal are now tied for 5th with Nigeria.

Panama replace Costa Rica as 5th in CONCACAF.

New Caledonia replace Vanuatu as 3rd in Oceania.

Spain replace Netherlands as 1st in Europe. Portugal 4th in Europe, England out of the top 5.

Six teams will improve their best ever ranking:

Uruguay (4th - 5th in July 2011)
Bosnia-Herzegovina (22nd - 25th in August 2007)
Hungary (27th - 36th in March 2011)
Armenia (44th - 59th in November 2010)
Estonia (58th - 60th in December 2002)
Belize (133rd - 148th in July 2011)

Two teams will return to their best ever ranking:

Spain (1st - first achieved in July 2008)
Liechtenstein (118th - first achieved in January 2008)

Hong Kong will return to their worst ever ranking - 156th - first happened in November 2008.

Seven teams will drop to their worst ever ranking:

Saudi Arabia (97th - 92nd in June 2011)
Congo (144th - 139th in April 1996)
Bermuda (189th - 185th in December 1998)
Eritrea (190th - 189th in October 1998)
Mauritania (193rd - 190th in August 2011)
Tonga (201st - 194th in August 2011)
Samoa (203rd - 191st in May 2007)

September 2011 rank - Team - September 2011 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points 


1 Spain 1605 1 42
2 Netherlands 1571 -1 -25
3 Germany 1290 0 -40
4 Uruguay 1184 1 10
5 Portugal 1158 3 98
6 Italy 1142 1 32
7 Brazil 1118 -1 -38
8 England 1089 -4 -88
9 Croatia 1057 1 48
10 Argentina 1014 -1 -3
11 Greece 1000 3 63
12 France 956 3 38
13 Russia 954 0 14
14 Chile 932 -3 -28
15 Japan 924 0 6
16 Côte d'Ivoire 918 -1 0
17 Denmark 893 4 52
18 Switzerland 886 12 129
19 Australia 882 3 45
20 Mexico 867 0 3
21 Serbia 855 8 71
22 Bosnia-Herzegovina 839 17 183
23 Norway 835 -11 -108
24 Paraguay 825 1 18
25 Sweden 792 -7 -97
26 Montenegro 778 -7 -97
27 Hungary 754 18 141
27 Turkey 754 -3 -57
29 Korea Republic 749 4 4
29 Republic of Ireland 749 2 -5
31 USA 741 -3 -50
32 Colombia 739 3 9
33 Slovenia 732 -10 -84
34 Belgium 729 3 54
35 Peru 724 -9 -82
36 Egypt 714 -2 -25
37 Ghana 700 -1 -26
38 Israel 677 -6 -69
39 Slovakia 662 -13 -144
40 Czech Republic 656 2 21
41 Burkina Faso 651 -1 5
42 Nigeria 614 -4 -45
42 Senegal 614 7 23
44 Armenia 610 27 154
45 Jamaica 606 -2 -17
46 Algeria 605 0 -7
47 Venezuela 598 -3 -17
48 Cameroon 596 4 14
49 Romania 584 5 26
50 Iran 576 3 17
51 South Africa 574 -4 -28
52 Scotland 572 3 18
53 Honduras 564 -3 -25
53 Panama 564 9 40
55 Bulgaria 559 -4 -27
56 Belarus 554 -15 -91
57 Costa Rica 549 3 19
58 Estonia 537 28 163
59 Morocco 534 2 5
60 Ukraine 531 -12 -67
61 Tunisia 527 -4 -19
62 Libya 519 2 15
62 Mali 519 19 111
64 Georgia 499 -1 -23
65 Poland 496 0 -2
66 Gabon 489 1 7
66 Zimbabwe 489 8 55
68 Sierra Leone 488 24 140
69 Ecuador 482 -3 -9
70 Northern Ireland 477 -11 -68
71 Albania 474 -14 -72
72 Finland 472 7 56
73 China PR 469 -4 5
74 Latvia 460 10 72
75 Lithuania 459 -19 -93
76 Guinea 447 -7 -17
77 Austria 442 -9 -30
78 Malawi 439 -5 3
79 Uzbekistan 422 3 21
80 Trinidad and Tobago 414 11 59
81 Bolivia 412 4 32
82 Uganda 411 -2 0
83 Zambia 410 -7 -17
84 Angola 407 12 69
84 Jordan 407 8 59
86 Cyprus 398 -10 -29
87 Canada 395 15 76
88 El Salvador 390 -13 -41
89 New Zealand 377 5 31
90 Wales 374 27 123
91 Cape Verde Islands 372 -19 -72
92 Benin 370 -9 -24
93 Niger 368 11 59
94 FYR Macedonia 366 -4 8
95 Botswana 364 -17 -60
95 Togo 364 26 122
97 Azerbaijan 359 15 87
97 Saudi Arabia 359 -10 -13
99 Kuwait 353 -4 12
100 Qatar 350 -12 -14
101 Antigua and Barbuda 345 5 37
102 Bahrain 335 -1 10
103 Cuba 332 -4 5
103 Sudan 332 -5 3
105 Oman 319 -2 7
106 Iceland 316 18 84
107 Iraq 307 2 14
108 Haiti 305 8 46
109 Guatemala 302 4 41
109 Syria 302 -12 -35
111 Central African Republic 296 -7 -13
112 United Arab Emirates 287 -4 -12
113 Suriname 286 -3 1
114 Luxembourg 284 14 73
115 Mozambique 280 -16 -47
116 Guyana 278 -2 18
117 Thailand 274 3 28
118 Liechtenstein 270 1 23
119 Namibia 269 24 100
120 Grenada 265 -2 16
121 Korea DPR 257 -7 -3
122 Moldova 255 -34 -109
123 St. Kitts and Nevis 251 -1 12
124 Gambia 248 -17 -58
125 Faroe Islands 244 -14 -29
126 Tanzania 240 -1 11
127 Tajikistan 238 26 106
128 Liberia 230 -5 -8
129 Congo DR 225 -2 3
130 Vietnam 209 -1 0
131 Kenya 200 2 2
132 Kazakhstan 198 -6 -29
133 Belize 195 15 49
133 Ethiopia 195 7 14
135 Nepal 193 1 0
136 Singapore 189 -7 -20
137 Yemen 185 -4 -13
138 Bangladesh 183 1 1
139 Dominican Republic 182 -6 -16
139 Indonesia 182 -8 -25
141 Burundi 179 4 15
141 Turkmenistan 179 1 0
143 Rwanda 178 -5 -14
144 Congo 177 -12 -24
145 Puerto Rico 173 -1 6
146 Lebanon 163 14 57
147 Fiji 158 -6 -22
147 Malaysia 158 -1 0
149 Dominica 154 -13 -39
150 Barbados 148 -3 -8
151 US Virgin Islands 144 -2 0
152 Bahamas 141 -1 0
152 Equatorial Guinea 141 2 10
154 Malta 137 13 35
155 New Caledonia 128 10 24
156 Hong Kong 124 -2 -7
156 Nicaragua 124 23 49
158 Madagascar 115 -6 -24
158 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 115 0 3
160 Lesotho 112 25 72
161 Chad 110 -7 -21
162 Palestine 109 -5 -8
163 Guinea-Bissau 106 -13 -36
163 India 106 -5 -6
163 Mongolia 106 -3 0
166 Maldives 105 -4 0
166 Philippines 105 -4 0
168 Myanmar 98 0 -1
169 Swaziland 96 3 6
170 Aruba 92 0 0
170 Pakistan 92 0 0
172 Chinese Taipei 89 -3 -8
173 Vanuatu 88 -11 -17
174 Cambodia 84 2 1
174 Cayman Islands 84 -2 -6
174 Sri Lanka 84 0 -2
177 Seychelles 82 -2 -3
178 Comoros 75 4 7
178 Curacao 75 -12 -28
178 Kyrgyzstan 75 -1 -4
178 Solomon Islands 75 -1 -4
182 Laos 71 -2 0
183 Afghanistan 70 -2 0
184 Tahiti 68 -1 11
185 St. Lucia 46 -1 -8
186 Guam 36 11 26
187 Papua New Guinea 34 20 34
188 Mauritius 33 0 -2
189 Bermuda 30 -4 -10
190 Eritrea 28 -1 -1
191 British Virgin Islands 25 -4 -13
191 Macau 25 1 0
193 Mauritania 23 -3 -4
193 Somalia 23 0 0
195 Turks and Caicos Islands 13 0 0
196 Djibouti 12 0 0
197 Cook Islands 10 0 0
198 Anguilla 9 2 2
198 Brunei Darussalam 9 1 0
200 Bhutan 6 1 0
201 Timor-Leste 3 1 0
201 Tonga 3 -7 -12
203 American Samoa 0 0 0
203 Andorra 0 0 0
203 Montserrat 0 0 0
203 Samoa 0 -12 -26
203 San Marino 0 0 0

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22 comments:

  1. AnonymousSeptember 12, 2011 at 7:52 PM

    How can Poland in 65th place draw against Germany (ranked third) and Mexico (ranked 20th) and come through with -2 points for the month? :o

    ReplyDelete
  2. TumiSeptember 13, 2011 at 12:26 AM

    Excellent work and thanks for the updated list.
    One question. When calculating the points for after a single match. Say if the opponent is in 50th place along with six other countries all equal on points, how do you calculate that?
    Do you go by the alphabet so even though it says all teams are in 50th place you really use 51st, 52nd, etc? Or are all calculations based on 50th place?
    Hope you understand my question.
    Thanks again.

    ReplyDelete
  3. EdSeptember 13, 2011 at 5:23 PM

    Tumi,

    The positions in the FIFA-ranking are based on rounded points. The seven countries with the same rounded points in your example all have the same position number 50 and that position is used in the calculation of the points per match.

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousSeptember 14, 2011 at 6:19 AM

    Now Norway drops big, after World Cup Draw.. France is Irish cursed indeed.

    ReplyDelete
  5. LorricSeptember 14, 2011 at 9:28 AM

    @ Anonymous

    As fun as seeing France deposited into Spain's group was, the idea of drawing the teams for UEFA in the middle of European qualifying is seriously flawed. Case in point: Azerbaijan. When the World Cup draw was made, Azerbaijan had played 4 away games, all lost, and two home games, one against Germany, which they lost. The other game was a victory over Turkey. Since then they have tied Belgium and beaten Kazakhstan, proving a difficult opponent on their own turf. But the easier part of their schedule was stacked towards the end. I would say an example of the opposite would be Sweden, with 3 away games (although one is San Marino) and a single home game against the Netherlands left after the draw. They promptly lost the first of these matches to Hungary.

    ReplyDelete
  6. LorricSeptember 14, 2011 at 9:36 AM

    @ Anonymous

    As you can certainly see, the wheels seem to have come off the Montenegro bandwagon too, but too little, too late for the teams below them.

    ReplyDelete
  7. HomerSeptember 14, 2011 at 8:03 PM

    To answer "Anonymous", this is very simple. The ranking is calculated over four years worth of results and each year the points gained are worth less. Every month when the ranking is calculated you lose points that move to the next year, i.e. points from August 2010, August 2009, and August 2008 are now worth less. If these "lost points" are more than what you gain in September 2011, then you'll end up with -2 points, for example. Don't just look from August 2011 to September 2011 and what games a team played in that month.

    ReplyDelete
  8. AnonymousSeptember 15, 2011 at 11:16 PM

    Ah makes sense man, cheers Homer!

    ReplyDelete
  9. EdgarSeptember 16, 2011 at 7:53 AM

    @Homer, @Ed

    Thanks for the help!

    @David J. Pereira

    Thanks, but I have certain rules for link exchanges. Good luck with your blog!

    ReplyDelete
  10. AnonymousSeptember 19, 2011 at 3:28 PM

    go Armenia go ...

    ReplyDelete
  11. AnonymousSeptember 20, 2011 at 6:18 AM

    Damn Mexico is still in rank (20th) >>:((

    ReplyDelete
  12. AnonymousSeptember 21, 2011 at 12:28 PM

    Hi Edgar. How far the rankings dates are usually known? Fifa.com rankings page says "Next Release 19 Oct 2011", but when will November and December rankings released?
    When you calculate future rankings for seedings etc, do you just use approximate dates based on the games schedule and previous years dates?

    ReplyDelete
  13. TumiSeptember 21, 2011 at 4:55 PM

    Thanks Ed

    ReplyDelete
  14. MVSeptember 21, 2011 at 6:31 PM

    @anonymous I don't think Edgar predicts results further than the next month, so it doesn't matter. e.g when calculating current seedings for the WC2014 he doesn't predict all the matches in the next 2 years (using ELO) like when he predicts the next month's FIFA rankings - he simply leaves it out and only has points from matches that are already finished (but still in the timeframe that will be used for the draw, so in this case late 2009-late 2013).

    I think. :D

    ReplyDelete
  15. AnonymousSeptember 22, 2011 at 2:01 PM

    @MV I realize that Edgar does not predict the results, but you can't say that the latest 1.0 timeframe will exactly match 0.5 time one year from now, so it's better to know the dates. One example: Nov-2010 ranking was released on Nov-17th. As a result, two European matchdates played on 17 and 21 Nov 2007 got split between 0.2 and 0.3 timeframes, though they were together in November rankings for some previous years.

    ReplyDelete
  16. MVSeptember 22, 2011 at 3:17 PM

    Hmm..never thought of it that way. I calculate the points for my country (Croatia) myself and I've never done that, the splitting by date. Yet I get the same result as Edgar (and later FIFA). Might be a coincidence, though.

    ReplyDelete
  17. AnonymousSeptember 22, 2011 at 5:06 PM

    @MV I came across this while calculating a ranking for my country too :) (Belarus). The number i got that time did match with fifa and Edgar's numbers.

    ReplyDelete
  18. EdgarSeptember 23, 2011 at 7:57 AM

    The schedule for this year can be found here.

    When dates are unavailable (2012, 2013) I do what you said: "approximate dates based on the games schedule and previous years dates"

    ReplyDelete
  19. TobcoachSeptember 23, 2011 at 9:29 AM

    @Edgar: In the official FIFA-ranking, Tajikistan has 117 points. In your (and my) calculations they have a lot more points. Can it be that the FIFA has decided not to include the two games against Syria?

    ReplyDelete
  20. EdgarSeptember 23, 2011 at 9:31 AM

    Might be - I didn't have the time to look at the ranking yet. A bit busy at work - I do have to get paid :)

    ReplyDelete
  21. TobcoachSeptember 23, 2011 at 9:39 AM

    By the way, same with Syria. In our rankings they have less points in comparison with the FIFA-ranking...

    ReplyDelete
  22. EdSeptember 23, 2011 at 9:54 AM

    Tobcoach, Edgar,

    FIFA awarded both matches to Tajikistan with 3:0 according to their official match-list, but evidently based the calculation of points for these two matches on the original results (2:1 and 0:4 for Syria).
    This leads to Syria having 347 pts and Tajikistan having 117 pts in the september-ranking.

    ReplyDelete

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