FIFA Ranking: Why did Wales fall?

A lot of Welsh football fans were mystified by Wales' drop in the November rankings, despite winning against a higher-ranked team - Norway and their form (4 wins in the last 5 matches).

Why did it happen? I tried to explain, but with the questions still coming, I think a post is required.

October 2011

The columns are as follows: Match date, Opponents' FIFA trigramme, FIFA match points for Wales.

"0.2 time frame"

17-Nov-2007	IRL	420
21-Nov-2007	GER	487.5
06-Feb-2008	NOR	513
26-Mar-2008	LUX	150
28-May-2008	ISL	345
01-Jun-2008	NED	0
20-Aug-2008	GEO	0
06-Sep-2008	AZE	465
10-Sep-2008	RUS	0
11-Oct-2008	LIE	487.5
15-Oct-2008	GER	0

"0.3 time frame"

19-Nov-2008	DEN	498
11-Feb-2009	POL	0
28-Mar-2009	FIN	0
01-Apr-2009	GER	0
29-May-2009	EST	261
06-Jun-2009	AZE	450
12-Aug-2009	MNE	0
09-Sep-2009	RUS	0
10-Oct-2009	FIN	0
14-Oct-2009	LIE	375

"0.5 time frame"

14-Nov-2009	SCO	462
03-Mar-2010	SWE	0
23-May-2010	CRO	0
11-Aug-2010	LUX	249
03-Sep-2010	MNE	0
08-Oct-2010	BUL	0
12-Oct-2010	SUI	0

"1.0 time frame"

08-Feb-2011	IRL	0
26-Mar-2011	ENG	0
25-May-2011	SCO	0
27-May-2011	NIR	405
10-Aug-2011	AUS	0
02-Sep-2011	MNE	1357.5
06-Sep-2011	ENG	0
07-Oct-2011	SUI	1365
11-Oct-2011	BUL	1087.5

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4	2868	11	0.2	52.145
-3	1584	10	0.3	47.520
-2	711	7	0.5	50.786
-1	4215	9	1	468.333

Total: 618.7845022, rounded up to 619.

November 2011

"0.2 time frame"

06-Feb-2008	NOR	513
26-Mar-2008	LUX	150
28-May-2008	ISL	345
01-Jun-2008	NED	0
20-Aug-2008	GEO	0
06-Sep-2008	AZE	465
10-Sep-2008	RUS	0
11-Oct-2008	LIE	487.5
15-Oct-2008	GER	0
19-Nov-2008	DEN	498

"0.3 time frame"

11-Feb-2009	POL	0
28-Mar-2009	FIN	0
01-Apr-2009	GER	0
29-May-2009	EST	261
06-Jun-2009	AZE	450
12-Aug-2009	MNE	0
09-Sep-2009	RUS	0
10-Oct-2009	FIN	0
14-Oct-2009	LIE	375
14-Nov-2009	SCO	462

"0.5 time frame"

03-Mar-2010	SWE	0
23-May-2010	CRO	0
11-Aug-2010	LUX	249
03-Sep-2010	MNE	0
08-Oct-2010	BUL	0
12-Oct-2010	SUI	0

"1.0 time frame"

08-Feb-2011	IRL	0
26-Mar-2011	ENG	0
25-May-2011	SCO	0
27-May-2011	NIR	405
10-Aug-2011	AUS	0
02-Sep-2011	MNE	1357.5
06-Sep-2011	ENG	0
07-Oct-2011	SUI	1365
11-Oct-2011	BUL	1087.5
12-Nov-2011	NOR	528

Adding it up:

Year - Points - Matches - Multiplier - Total

-4	2458.5	10	0.2	49.170
-3	1548	10	0.3	46.440
-2	249	6	0.5	20.750
-1	4743	10	1	474.300

Total: 590.66, rounded up to 591.

All averages, except the most recent one dropped. Reason? Devaluation of games played in November 2007 (draws against Republic of Ireland in Germany in Euro 2008 qualifiers) - Wales lost 16.50 points , November 2008 (friendly win against Denmark) - Wales lost 4.98 points and November 2009 (friendly win against Scotland) - Wales lost 19.14 points.

Would it have been better not to play in November? No, without the win against Norway, Wales would have had 587 points (as opposed to the current 591).

What if Wales lost? 538 points. And 555 for a draw.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.