Include matches up to and including February 23rd 2012.
See more info in the original 2014 FIFA World Cup seeding post.
This is the top 20 of the intermediate October 2013 FIFA ranking:
| 1 | Uruguay | 422 |
| 2 | Spain | 411 |
| 3 | Côte d'Ivoire | 403 |
| 4 | Germany | 397 |
| 5 | Netherlands | 381 |
| 6 | Portugal | 362 |
| 7 | Argentina | 352 |
| 8 | Ghana | 335 |
| 9 | England | 333 |
| 10 | Croatia | 316 |
| 11 | Brazil | 311 |
| 12 | Denmark | 301 |
| 12 | Zambia | 301 |
| 14 | Chile | 297 |
| 15 | Italy | 295 |
| 16 | Greece | 283 |
| 17 | Mali | 279 |
| 18 | Paraguay | 266 |
| 19 | Japan | 264 |
| 19 | Republic of Ireland | 264 |
France (22), Mexico (27), USA (48).
Côte d'Ivoire replace Croatia in the list of seeds.
Right now, the seeds for the 2014 World Cup would be: Brazil, Spain, Uruguay, Côte d'Ivoire, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal and Argentina.
The next African Championship will be already next winter. The results from that tournament will fall into the most recent (100 %) time frame of the October 2013 ranking, while the results from the upcoming European Championship will already be in the 50% time frame.
ReplyDeleteDoes that mean that an African team will most likely be seeded?
I guess this will be the best chance for an African team to become a top seed during the World Cup.
ReplyDeleteMaybe that was their plan all along, to have a continental tournament in the same year as the final draw of the WC.
Edit: I forgot, that FIFA likes to change the seeding formula as they see fit. So maybe it won't help the African teams at all. ;)
ReplyDeleteI bet FIFA would love a seeded African team.
ReplyDeleteAnd if it was Ivory Coast, it would kind of make up for the terrible draws they've received in the past. And hey, if their luck is anything to go by, the 8th ranked team would probably end up in their group anyway! :)
Nando, I will run some simulations when I have the time. However, just an educated guess - I think only one of this year's top 4 could be seeded - with a repeat performance in 2013.
ReplyDeleteWell, maybe we can further speculate that Argentina will not be seeded, since they don't play a tournament until October 2013.
ReplyDeleteSo Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana may be seeded, while Argentina might not be...