FIFA Ranking: February 2012 probable ranking (II)

Next update: 10 February 2012. 

FIFA will publish the ranking on 15 February.

Only 10 teams still have matches to play. For the others, their points are already set.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. Here's the list of results:

04/Feb Zambia - Sudan 1 (Continental Final)
04/Feb Côte d'Ivoire - Equatorial Guinea 1 (Continental Final)
05/Feb Gabon - Mali 1 (Continental Final)
05/Feb Ghana - Tunisia 1 (Continental Final)
08/Feb Zambia - Ghana 2 (Continental Final)
08/Feb Gabon - Côte d'Ivoire 2 (Continental Final)
11/Feb Myanmar - Thailand 2 (Friendly)
11/Feb Zambia - Gabon X Zambia PSO (Continental Final)
12/Feb Ghana - Côte d'Ivoire X Côte d'Ivoire PSO (Continental Final)

This is how the totals can change for the teams that still have matches to play:

Team - Minimum points - Maximum points - Lowest rank - Highest rank

Côte d'Ivoire	861	1039	22	12
Ghana	795	980	24	14
Gabon	589	815	50	23
Tunisia	573	772	56	30
Mali	513	766	66	30
Zambia	464	662	74	40
Equatorial Guinea	305	534	111	62
Sudan	302	434	111	82
Thailand	235	244	136	131
Myanmar	95	113	175	168

In the table below, the totals for these teams are the probable totals based on the probable results listed above.

Lots of movement in the top 10:

- Germany will overtake the Netherlands for 2nd in the ranking.
- Portugal will overtake Brazil
- Italy will overtake Croatia
- Denmark will overtake Argentina

Australia will overtake Japan at the top of AFC.

El Salvador will overtake Honduras and Costa Rica, climbing to 5th in CONCACAF.

Turks and Caicos Islands will join the group of teams with 0 points.

Gabon and Equatorial Guinea to climb 40 or more places.

Sao Tome e Principe will climb 28 places.

Senegal and Egypt will fall 24 and 23 places respectively. Egypt will drop to a new worst ranking (59th or lower). Their previous low was 44th in July 2002. Obviously this will put both teams out of the African top 5. Algeria, not qualified for the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations might keep their 3rd place in Africa. Funny how the FIFA rankings work sometimes.

Niger, Japan, Uzbekistan, Cape Verde Islands and Botswana to fall 10 or more places.

Libya, El Salvador and Sao Tome e Principe will improve their best ever rankings.

Côte d'Ivoire and Armenia could also improve their best ever rankings, but that depends on their results (in the case of the Ivorians) and other teams' results (for the Armenians).

Cyprus, Solomons Islands and Eritrea will return their worst ever rankings.

Egypt, Cameroon, Bulgaria, Barbados, Sri Lanka, Kyrgyzstan and Turks and Caicos Islands will drop to their new worst rankings.

Myanmar could also drop to a new low if they lose against Thailand.


Probable February 2012 rank - Team - Probable February 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Spain	1566	0	2
2	Germany	1369	1	24
3	Netherlands	1359	-1	-6
4	Uruguay	1317	0	8
5	England	1179	0	6
6	Portugal	1155	1	55
7	Brazil	1152	-1	9
8	Italy	1115	1	33
9	Croatia	1101	-1	10
10	Denmark	1090	1	58
11	Argentina	1081	-1	14
12	Chile	996	0	23
13	Côte d'Ivoire	995	5	106
14	Russia	989	-1	18
15	Greece	979	-1	15
16	Switzerland	950	0	52
17	France	930	-2	15
18	Sweden	924	-1	33
19	Bosnia-Herzegovina	920	0	51
20	Ghana	917	6	138
21	Republic of Ireland	893	2	29
22	Mexico	882	-1	16
23	Australia	832	-2	-34
24	Norway	793	0	5
25	Serbia	791	2	16
25	Turkey	791	4	22
27	Paraguay	781	0	6
27	Slovenia	781	-2	1
29	Czech Republic	775	2	26
30	Japan	762	-11	-107
31	USA	750	2	29
32	Colombia	746	3	37
33	Peru	743	1	31
34	Korea Republic	714	-4	-38
35	Israel	708	2	43
36	Algeria	684	-4	-50
37	Hungary	678	0	13
38	Slovakia	675	1	27
39	Belgium	663	1	16
40	Ecuador	644	2	10
41	Gabon	642	50	255
42	Armenia	639	3	27
43	Wales	635	6	44
44	Venezuela	615	-3	-27
45	Iran	606	-1	-17
46	Scotland	602	2	3
47	Panama	594	0	-6
48	Jamaica	589	4	16
49	Montenegro	585	1	0
50	Romania	583	5	21
51	Libya	581	12	67
52	El Salvador	576	12	70
52	Estonia	576	0	3
54	Nigeria	573	-9	-39
54	Tunisia	573	5	32
56	South Africa	559	0	8
57	Honduras	549	-6	-30
57	Ukraine	549	-3	-19
59	Egypt	545	-23	-153
60	Morocco	543	1	20
61	Costa Rica	539	1	17
62	Sierra Leone	533	-2	0
63	Mali	522	6	46
64	Guinea	517	15	81
65	Zambia	515	6	56
66	Cameroon	502	-10	-49
67	Belarus	494	-2	-7
68	Senegal	490	-25	-135
69	Cape Verde Islands	477	-11	-72
70	Poland	470	-2	-24
71	Austria	469	0	10
71	Canada	469	3	14
71	Haiti	469	9	36
74	Latvia	463	-4	-3
75	Burkina Faso	462	-9	-37
76	China PR	456	-2	1
77	Uzbekistan	455	-10	-40
78	Albania	452	-1	2
79	Finland	439	6	34
79	Iraq	439	-6	-18
81	Georgia	436	-5	-15
82	Jordan	431	-1	5
83	Angola	424	2	19
84	Guatemala	422	5	22
85	Trinidad and Tobago	417	-7	-31
86	Northern Ireland	412	1	9
87	Uganda	411	-5	0
88	Bulgaria	408	-5	-2
89	Saudi Arabia	407	-2	4
90	Antigua and Barbuda	405	-6	-2
91	Kuwait	399	4	27
92	Guyana	388	0	2
93	Lithuania	383	0	1
94	Togo	380	6	30
95	Oman	377	-5	-16
96	Qatar	372	1	8
97	Bahrain	366	-2	-6
98	Malawi	362	1	3
99	Zimbabwe	348	3	7
100	Vietnam	347	1	3
101	FYR Macedonia	345	2	10
102	Mozambique	332	3	13
103	Iceland	330	1	5
104	Botswana	328	-10	-45
105	Bermuda	321	1	7
106	Korea DPR	314	1	2
107	Bolivia	309	2	0
108	Rwanda	308	2	4
109	Azerbaijan	306	2	6
110	Equatorial Guinea	305	41	158
111	Niger	302	-13	-59
111	Sudan	302	9	37
113	Puerto Rico	301	-5	-9
114	Lebanon	299	-2	6
115	Gambia	292	3	21
116	Cuba	290	-3	0
117	St. Kitts and Nevis	287	-3	2
118	Faroe Islands	285	-4	0
119	Congo DR	279	-3	3
120	Namibia	271	2	12
120	New Zealand	271	-2	0
122	Syria	270	-5	-5
123	Kenya	267	-2	7
124	Liechtenstein	263	6	17
125	Liberia	258	-2	0
126	Suriname	254	-1	0
127	Cyprus	252	-1	-1
128	Central African Republic	251	0	0
129	Dominican Republic	247	0	0
130	Congo	245	1	0
131	Thailand	244	-7	-13
132	United Arab Emirates	243	6	20
133	Grenada	240	-1	-1
133	Luxembourg	240	-6	-12
135	Belize	238	-2	8
136	Benin	237	0	9
137	Ethiopia	230	-4	0
138	Kazakhstan	225	1	5
139	Tanzania	224	-2	-1
140	Tajikistan	218	0	0
141	Chad	207	1	19
142	Moldova	205	-7	-24
143	Burundi	199	-2	0
144	Nicaragua	189	1	24
145	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	172	-1	1
146	Indonesia	161	-3	-22
147	Yemen	159	2	6
148	Singapore	155	-1	-6
149	Turkmenistan	154	-3	-10
150	Malaysia	153	-2	-4
151	Samoa	149	-1	0
152	Nepal	144	1	0
153	Curacao	142	-1	-4
154	Bahamas	141	1	0
154	India	141	4	3
156	Philippines	139	1	0
157	Bangladesh	138	1	0
158	Madagascar	135	2	0
159	Fiji	133	2	0
159	Malta	133	-3	-7
161	Lesotho	131	-8	-13
162	Palestine	128	0	7
163	Hong Kong	126	5	17
163	New Caledonia	126	3	10
165	Aruba	120	-1	0
166	Chinese Taipei	116	1	6
166	Guinea-Bissau	116	-4	-5
168	Sao Tome e Principe	113	28	86
169	Barbados	107	-4	-12
170	Mongolia	106	-1	0
171	Laos	105	3	9
172	Cambodia	104	-2	3
173	Vanuatu	103	1	7
174	Maldives	98	-1	0
175	Dominica	95	-4	-5
175	Myanmar	95	-3	-4
177	Tonga	88	-1	0
178	Afghanistan	85	-1	0
179	Swaziland	83	1	8
180	US Virgin Islands	82	-2	0
181	Pakistan	76	-2	0
182	Solomon Islands	75	-2	0
182	Sri Lanka	75	-2	0
184	Tahiti	73	0	0
185	Cayman Islands	72	-2	-2
186	St. Lucia	65	-1	0
187	American Samoa	61	-1	0
188	Comoros	55	-1	0
189	Seychelles	53	-1	0
190	Eritrea	45	-1	0
191	Somalia	43	-1	0
192	Kyrgyzstan	42	-1	0
193	Guam	36	-1	0
194	Papua New Guinea	34	-1	0
195	Mauritius	32	-1	0
196	Macau	29	1	3
197	Cook Islands	28	-2	0
198	British Virgin Islands	23	0	0
198	Djibouti	23	0	0
200	Anguilla	9	1	0
201	Bhutan	6	1	0
201	Brunei Darussalam	6	1	0
203	Mauritania	4	1	0
204	Timor-Leste	2	1	0
205	Andorra	0	1	0
205	Montserrat	0	1	0
205	San Marino	0	1	0
205	Turks and Caicos Islands	0	-5	-13

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Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.