FIFA will publish the ranking on 7 March. The March edition will be used to seed the AFC teams for the 2014 FIFA World Cup qualifiers final group stage draw, schedule for 9 March.
Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.
Based on these probable results...
Benin, New Zealand, United Arab Emirates and Gambia will climb 10 or more spots.
Turkmenistan, Iceland, Puerto Rico and Liberia will drop 10 or more spots.
Belize, Aruba, Sao Tome e Principe will improve their best ever rankings.
Romania, Cameroon, Poland, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Barbados, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Macau will drop lower than their worst ever rankings.
Probable March 2012 rank - Team - Probable March 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Spain | 1561 | 0 | -5 |
| 2 | Germany | 1374 | 0 | 5 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 1344 | 0 | -15 |
| 4 | Uruguay | 1306 | 0 | -11 |
| 5 | Brazil | 1157 | 2 | 5 |
| 6 | England | 1143 | -1 | -36 |
| 7 | Portugal | 1132 | -1 | -23 |
| 8 | Italy | 1101 | 0 | -14 |
| 9 | Croatia | 1099 | 0 | -2 |
| 10 | Argentina | 1084 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Denmark | 1081 | -1 | -9 |
| 12 | Greece | 980 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Chile | 978 | -1 | -18 |
| 14 | Côte d'Ivoire | 974 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 | Russia | 951 | -2 | -38 |
| 16 | Switzerland | 912 | 0 | -38 |
| 17 | Republic of Ireland | 896 | 3 | 3 |
| 18 | France | 892 | -1 | -38 |
| 19 | Sweden | 879 | -1 | -45 |
| 20 | Mexico | 873 | 1 | -9 |
| 21 | Australia | 868 | 1 | 36 |
| 22 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 850 | -3 | -70 |
| 23 | Japan | 812 | 7 | 50 |
| 24 | Ghana | 809 | -1 | -10 |
| 25 | Norway | 797 | -1 | 4 |
| 26 | Turkey | 796 | -1 | 5 |
| 27 | Serbia | 791 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Paraguay | 775 | -1 | -6 |
| 29 | Slovenia | 765 | -2 | -16 |
| 30 | Korea Republic | 751 | 4 | 37 |
| 31 | Czech Republic | 747 | -2 | -28 |
| 32 | USA | 742 | -1 | -8 |
| 33 | Peru | 720 | 0 | -23 |
| 34 | Colombia | 706 | -2 | -40 |
| 35 | Hungary | 678 | 2 | 0 |
| 36 | Israel | 669 | -1 | -39 |
| 37 | Slovakia | 652 | 1 | -23 |
| 38 | Algeria | 649 | -2 | -35 |
| 39 | Ecuador | 648 | 1 | 4 |
| 40 | Iran | 633 | 7 | 27 |
| 41 | Zambia | 630 | 2 | 0 |
| 42 | Mali | 629 | 2 | 4 |
| 43 | Belgium | 625 | -4 | -38 |
| 44 | Gabon | 617 | 1 | 0 |
| 45 | Montenegro | 601 | 6 | 16 |
| 46 | Venezuela | 593 | 0 | -22 |
| 46 | Wales | 593 | -4 | -42 |
| 48 | Nigeria | 588 | 8 | 15 |
| 49 | Panama | 576 | 0 | -18 |
| 50 | Armenia | 574 | -9 | -65 |
| 50 | Scotland | 574 | -2 | -28 |
| 52 | South Africa | 572 | 6 | 13 |
| 53 | Libya | 566 | 0 | -15 |
| 54 | Estonia | 565 | 0 | -11 |
| 55 | Tunisia | 564 | 1 | -9 |
| 56 | El Salvador | 563 | -2 | -13 |
| 57 | Jamaica | 561 | -7 | -28 |
| 58 | Egypt | 560 | 3 | 15 |
| 59 | Romania | 559 | -7 | -24 |
| 60 | Ukraine | 548 | -1 | -1 |
| 61 | Morocco | 545 | 1 | 2 |
| 62 | Cape Verde Islands | 542 | 7 | 65 |
| 63 | Costa Rica | 534 | 0 | -5 |
| 64 | Honduras | 533 | -5 | -16 |
| 65 | Sierra Leone | 518 | -1 | -15 |
| 66 | Guinea | 517 | -1 | 0 |
| 67 | Cameroon | 505 | -1 | 3 |
| 68 | Belarus | 500 | -1 | 6 |
| 69 | China PR | 495 | 7 | 39 |
| 70 | Senegal | 471 | -2 | -19 |
| 71 | Haiti | 469 | 0 | 0 |
| 72 | Georgia | 462 | 9 | 26 |
| 73 | Latvia | 457 | 1 | -6 |
| 74 | Canada | 456 | -3 | -13 |
| 75 | Burkina Faso | 451 | 0 | -11 |
| 76 | Austria | 450 | -5 | -19 |
| 77 | Iraq | 443 | 2 | 4 |
| 77 | Poland | 443 | -7 | -27 |
| 79 | Albania | 432 | -1 | -20 |
| 80 | Finland | 424 | -1 | -15 |
| 80 | Uzbekistan | 424 | -3 | -31 |
| 82 | Angola | 421 | 1 | -3 |
| 83 | Jordan | 412 | -1 | -19 |
| 84 | Uganda | 408 | 3 | -3 |
| 85 | Trinidad and Tobago | 401 | 0 | -15 |
| 86 | Northern Ireland | 400 | 0 | -12 |
| 87 | Antigua and Barbuda | 391 | 3 | -14 |
| 87 | Guatemala | 391 | -3 | -31 |
| 89 | Bulgaria | 388 | -1 | -20 |
| 90 | Malawi | 385 | 8 | 23 |
| 91 | Lithuania | 383 | 2 | 0 |
| 91 | Saudi Arabia | 383 | -2 | -24 |
| 93 | Oman | 381 | 2 | 4 |
| 94 | Bahrain | 373 | 3 | 7 |
| 94 | Togo | 373 | 0 | -7 |
| 96 | Qatar | 368 | 0 | -4 |
| 97 | Guyana | 367 | -5 | -21 |
| 98 | Kuwait | 358 | -7 | -41 |
| 99 | FYR Macedonia | 351 | 2 | 6 |
| 100 | Vietnam | 347 | 0 | 0 |
| 101 | Botswana | 331 | 3 | 3 |
| 102 | Mozambique | 326 | 0 | -6 |
| 103 | Bermuda | 321 | 2 | 0 |
| 103 | Gambia | 321 | 12 | 29 |
| 105 | Korea DPR | 317 | 1 | 3 |
| 105 | Zimbabwe | 317 | -6 | -31 |
| 107 | New Zealand | 310 | 13 | 39 |
| 108 | Bolivia | 307 | -1 | -2 |
| 109 | Azerbaijan | 305 | 0 | -1 |
| 110 | Niger | 302 | 1 | 0 |
| 111 | Sudan | 300 | 0 | -2 |
| 112 | Rwanda | 290 | -4 | -18 |
| 113 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 287 | 4 | 0 |
| 114 | Congo DR | 286 | 5 | 6 |
| 115 | Cuba | 285 | 1 | -5 |
| 115 | Faroe Islands | 285 | 3 | 0 |
| 117 | Equatorial Guinea | 284 | -7 | -21 |
| 118 | Iceland | 277 | -15 | -53 |
| 119 | United Arab Emirates | 275 | 13 | 32 |
| 120 | Syria | 267 | 2 | -3 |
| 121 | Benin | 264 | 15 | 27 |
| 122 | Kenya | 260 | 1 | -7 |
| 123 | Lebanon | 259 | -9 | -40 |
| 124 | Suriname | 254 | 2 | 0 |
| 125 | Central African Republic | 251 | 3 | 0 |
| 126 | Namibia | 249 | -6 | -22 |
| 126 | Puerto Rico | 249 | -13 | -52 |
| 128 | Dominican Republic | 247 | 1 | 0 |
| 129 | Cyprus | 242 | -2 | -10 |
| 129 | Liechtenstein | 242 | -5 | -21 |
| 131 | Belize | 238 | 4 | 0 |
| 132 | Grenada | 236 | 1 | -4 |
| 133 | Luxembourg | 235 | 0 | -5 |
| 133 | Thailand | 235 | -3 | -10 |
| 135 | Ethiopia | 231 | 2 | 1 |
| 136 | Liberia | 229 | -11 | -29 |
| 137 | Tanzania | 228 | 2 | 4 |
| 138 | Congo | 227 | -8 | -18 |
| 139 | Nicaragua | 211 | 5 | 22 |
| 140 | Kazakhstan | 208 | -2 | -17 |
| 141 | Burundi | 206 | 2 | 7 |
| 142 | Moldova | 201 | 0 | -4 |
| 143 | Tajikistan | 195 | -3 | -23 |
| 144 | Chad | 183 | -3 | -24 |
| 145 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 172 | 0 | 0 |
| 146 | Indonesia | 160 | 0 | -1 |
| 147 | Yemen | 152 | 0 | -7 |
| 148 | Samoa | 149 | 3 | 0 |
| 149 | Nepal | 144 | 3 | 0 |
| 150 | Curacao | 142 | 3 | 0 |
| 150 | Singapore | 142 | -2 | -13 |
| 152 | Bahamas | 141 | 2 | 0 |
| 152 | Malaysia | 141 | -2 | -12 |
| 154 | Philippines | 136 | 2 | -3 |
| 155 | Fiji | 133 | 4 | 0 |
| 155 | Malta | 133 | 4 | 0 |
| 157 | Hong Kong | 132 | 6 | 6 |
| 157 | India | 132 | -3 | -9 |
| 159 | Lesotho | 131 | 2 | 0 |
| 160 | New Caledonia | 126 | 3 | 0 |
| 161 | Madagascar | 123 | -3 | -12 |
| 162 | Aruba | 120 | 3 | 0 |
| 162 | Bangladesh | 120 | -5 | -18 |
| 164 | Cambodia | 114 | 8 | 10 |
| 164 | Palestine | 114 | -2 | -14 |
| 166 | Sao Tome e Principe | 113 | 2 | 0 |
| 166 | Turkmenistan | 113 | -17 | -41 |
| 168 | Chinese Taipei | 110 | -2 | -6 |
| 168 | Guinea-Bissau | 110 | -2 | -6 |
| 170 | Barbados | 107 | -1 | 0 |
| 171 | Mongolia | 106 | -1 | 0 |
| 172 | Vanuatu | 103 | 1 | 0 |
| 173 | Laos | 96 | -2 | -9 |
| 174 | Dominica | 95 | 2 | 0 |
| 174 | Maldives | 95 | 1 | -3 |
| 176 | Tonga | 88 | 1 | 0 |
| 177 | Myanmar | 86 | -3 | -13 |
| 178 | Afghanistan | 85 | 0 | 0 |
| 179 | Swaziland | 83 | 0 | 0 |
| 180 | US Virgin Islands | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 181 | Pakistan | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 182 | Solomon Islands | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| 183 | Tahiti | 73 | 1 | 0 |
| 184 | Cayman Islands | 72 | 1 | 0 |
| 185 | St. Lucia | 65 | 1 | 0 |
| 186 | Sri Lanka | 62 | -4 | -13 |
| 187 | American Samoa | 61 | 0 | 0 |
| 188 | Comoros | 55 | 0 | 0 |
| 189 | Seychelles | 47 | 0 | -6 |
| 190 | Eritrea | 45 | 0 | 0 |
| 191 | Somalia | 43 | 0 | 0 |
| 192 | Kyrgyzstan | 39 | 0 | -3 |
| 193 | Guam | 36 | 0 | 0 |
| 194 | Papua New Guinea | 34 | 0 | 0 |
| 195 | Mauritius | 32 | 0 | 0 |
| 196 | Cook Islands | 28 | 1 | 0 |
| 197 | British Virgin Islands | 23 | 1 | 0 |
| 197 | Djibouti | 23 | 1 | 0 |
| 199 | Macau | 20 | -3 | -9 |
| 200 | Anguilla | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | Bhutan | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | Brunei Darussalam | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 203 | Mauritania | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 204 | Timor-Leste | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 205 | Andorra | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 205 | Montserrat | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 205 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 205 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
what will be india's probable position if they draw or win both games?
ReplyDeleteIf they draw both games India will have 142 pts (position somewhere around 150), with two wins they'll have 161 pts (position around 146).
ReplyDeleteThanks Ed! You're awesome :) You even have patience when people mistake you for someone else (namely me :D).
DeleteOnce again, thank you for this fine work. It's appreciated.
ReplyDeleteI see that you have predicted the upcoming friendly between the Netherlands & England resulting in a draw. Should the Netherlands win this away match, might the Netherlands reclaim the the 2nd ranked position from Germany?
If the Netherlands defeat England, they will reclaim the 2nd spot, even if Germany defeat France.
DeleteHey Edgar its my first time to communicate or try to post for a question tho i always follow your works here and you really do great job. so if i can ask you something ... what will be Egypt probable ranking in march will it still be 58 ? because we playing 3 matches in 23/2 ,26/2 , 29/2 vs Uganda , Kenya and Botswana ... in case we won all these games would they effect our rank ? or its still 58 as u stated here? thanks in advance
ReplyDelete@ Amr
DeleteEdgar has predicted Egypt will win all three matches. So that's as high as they can go. If they don't win all three, it will be less.
Not sure if he added Botswana match because it was arranged lately ... as our news said its confirmed that we got this match at 29/2.
Delete@Amr:
ReplyDeleteIf egypt want to come back to top 30, they have to focus on Continental/World Cup qualifiers & final games. such Friendlies with teams below rank 100 will not benefit to climb on ranking,and may affect on average on long term.Tarek
Even if Holland succeeds in reclaiming 2nd place, it will be a shortlived joy. For the rankings of April, my predicition is they will lose 3 to 5 places, mainly due to devaluating results of past years. Also Germany will close in on Spain. I didn't investigate whether there is a possibility the Germans can overtake La Furia Roja, yet. If someone is interested, I can take a quick look into the figures.
ReplyDeleteWell, Germany can't overtake Spain in the April rankings. If Germany wins against France and Spain loses against Venezuela, Spain will be 1 point ahead of Germany in the April ranks. The Dutch could fall as hard as 8th place, if they lose against England and the other results are positive for the countries behinf Holland. In any case the Dutch will lose their 3rd place to Uruguay.
DeleteLucky Dutch. The win against England and the results of the other top-10 countries mean they will be 2nd in March, but drop to 4th in April, behind Spain, Germany and Uruguay.
DeleteCould have been worse though, the Robben goal in extra time saved the 4th spot. Otherwise they would have been 6th behind Portugal and Brazil, but everything went the Orange way yesterday.
Lucky Dutch? England was credited with an offside goal in that match. IMHO, the better team won.
DeleteIf we table the upcoming (mostly at home) Netherlands friendlies for the moment, I would think that the Netherlands won't lose previous points until the '12 Euros start. At that time, the whole of the rankings could be shaken around. Germany lost it's match, Uruguay only garnered a draw yesterday, and I expect both teams (and #1 Spain for that matter too) to lose points in the next rankings, while the Netherlands will be the only team of the top half dozen to gain points. I respectfully ask; are your predicated mathematical calculations correct?
I'm not talking about the match itself, I'm talking about the result in relation to the other results.It was obvious that Holland had a fair chance of regaining the 2nd place in the March rankings. But I'm looking one step further, at the rankings of April. Because of the fact that no games are planned in the period until the deadline of the April rankings, one can predict the ranking of April even if the March ranking isn't published yet. Because of the other results, Holland will not lose that many places. They will lose a considerable amount of points though. In the March rankings they will gain 20 points, but in the rankings of April they will lose 172 points. That is mainly caused by the devaluation of the 2 Euro-qualifiers against Hungary one year ago. Those two games are worth 2460 points. In March they will be added to the totals of the last 12 months (which means 5484,5 points divided by 11 games = an average of 498,59 pts.), but in the April rankings those results won't count for the last 12 months anymore. So the average points for the last 12 months drop to 336,06 points (3024,5 points divided by 9 games.
DeleteSpain will lose a lot of points too (119 in relation to the March rankings), most of the other top-10 countries gain points. Why? Bacause their results of March 2011 were not so good or they played friendlies (in which you can't earn that many points). Those March 2011 results being dropped means those countries benefit from the used formula to calculate the total points.
So, in answer of you last question: yes, I think my predicted mathematical calculations are correct.
Since you mentioned the late Robben goal, I thought that at least part of your post was in regard to that particular match.
DeleteI suppose one could apply the "lucky" term to any team in the top half of the standings. After every teams rankings are based upon a given teams success or lack there of in relationship to the aggregate of all the other teams success or lack there of in the rankings. One might even argue that if that particular match had not been postponed to the riots in London during the previously scheduled time, that Netherlands would have maintained the 2nd place ranking they previously held. On the other hand, one might argue that the later date be more fortuitous for the Netherlands going forward. Que sera, sera.
Thank you for posting your thoughtful analysis for the upcoming April '12 rankings. It's appreciated.
All matches of Egypt in February have been removed and they won't play until June
ReplyDeletewell you are wrong .. Egypt matches have been moved from Egypt to Qatar few days of delay only
Deletethen the FIFA-site is not up to date, because it shows the next match of Egypt on June 1st?
Deletehttp://www.fifa.com/associations/association=egy/fixturesresults/gender=m/index.html#
you have to click on "Next" to show it
DeleteWell yes i will say they not up to date ..if you are Egyptian then you will know that every thing here happen random and " Bil Baraka" :D
DeleteEgypt will have 546 points in the March ranking - about 60th.
ReplyDelete@Tobcoach
Thanks for the analysis!
@ AMR
ReplyDeleteEgypt can come back in FIFA Ranking to TOP 40 if they win June,2012 four matches of WC& CAF Qualifications.
Tarek
Hello,
ReplyDeleteI just wish to inform you that Armenia was victorious 3-1 in the Armenia-Canada match, and it did NOT end as a draw as it is posted in the results section taken into consideration for March calculations.
Just for the record, as an England fan, I thought justice was served when the third goa was scored. But I'm sure unlike most England fans I actually liked England's peformance. Switching off and conceding the 2nd goal right after the first was pathetic, but aside from that I was happy. specially with the first half, lots of possession and patient builup, lots of quic short passes and people covering and supporting each other and pressuring off the ball. I was amused that a 2 goal lead was wiped out just like the last match between these two sides, even if one goal was offside this time. If I was Netherlands coach though, I'd be angry about how they let him walk into an ocean of space in the middle of the box though, I couldn't believe that.
ReplyDeleteBottom line, I think England wanted it more and put more effort in, but the Dutch attacking players just outclassed ours on the day, and that's what won the match.