FIFA Women's Ranking: June 2012 preview

Next update: 6 April 2012.

I'm still waiting for an answer for FIFA regarding possible errors in the rankings, so bear this in mind while looking at the table below.

Minimum points: losing all matches 6 - 0.
Maximum points: winning all matches 6 - 0.

Brazil already lost 15 points by losing 2 - 1 against Canada in USA.

For each match I use the current points (as of today).


USA (2166) would drop 13 points by losing 6 - 0 to Japan (2114) in Japan.
USA (2166) would drop 18 points by losing 6 - 0 to Brazil (2078) in Japan.

Will improve this minimum/maximum algorithm next week (maybe).

USA could lose 1st place, but only if they lose heavily against both Japan and Brazil.

Rank - Team - Current points - Minimum points - Maximum points

1	USA	2166	2135	2194
2	Germany	2163	2081	2168
3	Japan	2114	2077	2136
4	Brazil	2078	2058	2116
5	Sweden	2057	2024	2069
6	France	2020	1965	2024
7	Canada	1986	1966	2011
8	Korea DPR	1970	1970	1970
9	England	1965	1937	1966
10	Australia	1956	1956	1956
11	Italy	1936	1892	1950
12	Denmark	1913	1895	1924
13	Norway	1899	1851	1909
14	Netherlands	1889	1860	1890
15	Iceland	1851	1831	1861
16	Korea Republic	1843	1843	1843
17	Spain	1842	1811	1870
18	China PR	1828	1825	1840
19	Russia	1820	1777	1835
20	Finland	1795	1739	1812
21	Scotland	1775	1744	1818
22	Mexico	1768	1768	1768
23	Ukraine	1767	1739	1768
24	New Zealand	1752	1680	1769
25	Czech Republic	1730	1701	1760
26	Switzerland	1727	1685	1759
27	Nigeria	1686	1675	1689
28	Colombia	1651	1651	1651
29	Thailand	1645	1645	1645
30	Vietnam	1641	1641	1641
31	Republic of Ireland	1637	1627	1672
32	Poland	1634	1614	1643
33	Belgium	1629	1616	1661
34	Argentina	1609	1609	1609
35	Hungary	1599	1575	1633
36	Romania	1585	1559	1617
37	Slovakia	1581	1567	1625
38	Belarus	1579	1579	1579
39	Austria	1576	1519	1594
40	Costa Rica	1568	1568	1568
41	Uzbekistan	1565	1565	1565
42	Portugal	1557	1535	1595
43	Chinese Taipei	1556	1556	1556
44	Serbia	1547	1542	1557
45	Wales	1546	1545	1575
46	Chile	1544	1544	1544
47	Myanmar	1523	1523	1523
48	Trinidad and Tobago	1500	1500	1500
49	Papua New Guinea	1491	1474	1563
50	Ecuador	1484	1484	1484
51	Ghana	1468	1456	1471
52	Cameroon	1466	1466	1466
53	Peru	1450	1450	1450
54	India	1438	1438	1438
55	Northern Ireland	1435	1404	1462
56	Bulgaria	1434	1421	1479
57	Iran	1431	1431	1431
58	Paraguay	1430	1430	1430
59	Jordan	1404	1404	1404
60	Haiti	1397	1397	1397
61	Greece	1393	1357	1415
62	Slovenia	1386	1385	1415
63	Israel	1380	1380	1380
64	Croatia	1376	1375	1404
65	South Africa	1372	1369	1383
66	Equatorial Guinea	1371	1371	1371
67	Turkey	1356	1354	1384
68	Indonesia	1346	1346	1346
69	Uruguay	1344	1344	1344
70	Hong Kong	1342	1342	1342
71	Côte d'Ivoire	1341	1338	1353
72	Bahrain	1340	1340	1340
73	Venezuela	1338	1338	1338
73	Morocco	1338	1338	1338
75	Kazakhstan	1332	1328	1387
76	Estonia	1328	1327	1356
77	Tunisia	1325	1325	1325
78	Algeria	1320	1320	1320
79	Faroe Islands	1318	1318	1318
80	Tonga	1316	1316	1316
81	Guatemala	1310	1310	1310
82	Fiji	1306	1306	1306
83	Lithuania	1300	1300	1300
83	Guam	1300	1300	1300
85	Laos	1292	1292	1292
86	Egypt	1289	1289	1289
87	Bosnia-Herzegovina	1267	1267	1296
88	Philippines	1264	1264	1264
89	Malaysia	1256	1256	1256
89	Guyana	1256	1256	1256
91	Tahiti	1238	1238	1238
92	Bolivia	1236	1236	1236
93	Dominican Republic	1226	1226	1226
94	Latvia	1220	1220	1220
95	Mali	1204	1204	1204
96	Cuba	1201	1201	1201
97	Singapore	1195	1195	1195
97	Solomon Islands	1195	1195	1195
99	Palestine	1189	1189	1189
100	New Caledonia	1188	1188	1188

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

2015 Asian Cup preliminary draw in October

According to AFC, "The members were informed that 20 teams, who have confirmed their entries for the qualifiers, would be drawn into five groups of four teams each. The top two teams from each group and one third best-placed team from among all the groups would qualify for the Finals."

According to QFA, "On the margin of the AFC executive committee meetings, it was confirmed that the qualification stage draw for the 2015 Asian Cup - Australia will be held on October."

AFC had reserved two match days in September 2012 for a possible preliminary round (1 and 5 Sep), but they won't be used.

These are the match days (2013 and 2014):

MD 1: 6 February 2013
MD 2: 22 March 2013
MD 3: 15 October 2013
MD 4: 15 November 2013
MD 5: 19 November 2013
MD 6: 5 March 2014

Alternative match dates: 11 January 2014, 18 January 2014 and 25 January 2014. Why are they needed? Because MD 3 and 5 collide with the AFC-CONMEBOL World Cup play-off.

Now, about participation. This is the list I've received from AFC (yes, they've finally replied to my e-mails!): Uzbekistan, Qatar, Jordan, Iran, Iraq, China, Bahrain, Syria, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand, Yemen, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Lebanon and Hong Kong.

Based on the 2011 Asian Cup performance ranking, the bottom 23 will participate in the AFC Challenge Cup, while the top 23 will be involved in the main qualifiers. Obviously, the top 3 (Japan, Australia and Korea Republic) have direct entry and that leaves 20 teams to participate in the qualifiers.

Korea DPR are a special case. Although they are in the top 23, the AFC Executive Committee has allowed them to play in the AFC Challenge Cup because of difficulties in hosting home-and-away games in Korea DPR. If the North Koreans would have confirmed their participation in the main qualifiers, there would have been a preliminary round involving Lebanon and Hong Kong.

Now, there's only one problem. Based on 2011 Asian Cup performance, India are 16th. Why won't they participate in the main qualifiers? No answer from AFC (yet) regarding this.

These will be the pots for the October draw:

Pot 1: Uzbekistan, Qatar, Jordan, Iran, Iraq
Pot 2: China PR, Bahrain, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait
Pot 3: Saudi Arabia, Oman, Thailand, Yemen, Vietnam
Pot 4: Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Lebanon and Hong Kong.

Thailand should be below Yemen, but this doesn't affect the seeding.

Group of death: Iran, China PR, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Challenge Cup impact (II)

Last Friday I posted the top 20 differences in peak rankings achieved in the "normal" FIFA rankings compared with those recomputed considering AFC Challenge Cup matches as continental qualifiers. In order to do this, I've computed the April 2008 through March 2012 rankings with AFC Challenge Cup matches as continental qualifiers.

I've been asked to post a list of point differences.

Top 15 point differences

Team - Peak points in the normal rankings - Peak points in the modified rankings - Difference

Turkmenistan	182	409	227
Tajikistan	250	407	157
Myanmar	163	306	143
Maldives	156	295	139
India	174	281	107
Philippines	139	244	105
Sri Lanka	115	220	105
Afghanistan	85	188	103
Bangladesh	183	278	95
Pakistan	111	193	82
Korea DPR	399	474	75
Chinese Taipei	116	191	75
Mongolia	106	173	67
Palestine	137	196	59
Macau	39	92	53

Top 20 differences (in %)

Team - Peak points in the normal rankings - Peak points in the modified rankings - Difference (%)

Macau	39	92	135.90%
Turkmenistan	182	409	124.73%
Afghanistan	85	188	121.18%
Sri Lanka	115	220	91.30%
Maldives	156	295	89.10%
Myanmar	163	306	87.73%
Philippines	139	244	75.54%
Pakistan	111	193	73.87%
Chinese Taipei	116	191	64.66%
Mongolia	106	173	63.21%
Tajikistan	250	407	62.80%
India	174	281	61.49%
Bangladesh	183	278	51.91%
Palestine	137	196	43.07%
Cambodia	114	158	38.60%
Bhutan	33	42	27.27%
Nepal	193	241	24.87%
Kyrgyzstan	253	303	19.76%
Brunei Darussalam	52	62	19.23%
Korea DPR	399	474	18.80%

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: Challenge Cup impact

What would have happened had FIFA upgraded AFC Challenge Cup matches to continental qualifier status way back in April 2008 (the start of the 2008 AFC Challenge Cup qualifiers)?

I've computed the April 2008 through March 2012 rankings with AFC Challenge Cup matches as continental qualifiers.

Looking at the peak for each team in the rankings between April 2008 and March 2012, these are the 20 teams that would have gained the most. 18 of them were involved in the ACC.

Team - Peak in the normal rankings - Peak in the modified rankings - Difference

Turkmenistan	129	81	48
Tajikistan	124	79	45
Myanmar	135	104	31
Maldives	137	108	29
Afghanistan	164	136	28
Sri Lanka	148	123	25
Bangladesh	138	114	24
Macau	181	160	21
Pakistan	153	133	20
India	130	114	16
Chinese Taipei	147	131	16
Mongolia	160	146	14
Palestine	157	145	12
Nepal	135	124	11
Philippines	149	138	11
Cambodia	154	144	10
Kyrgyzstan	124	115	9
Korea DPR	83	75	8
Burundi	118	113	5
Equatorial Guinea	72	68	4

This will also help fans of AFC Challenge Cup teams see what to expect in the future.

---

About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.

FIFA Ranking: April 2012 probable ranking (II)

Next update: 6 April 2012.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 11 April.

I was hoping to post today the final preview, but 4 friendlies were scheduled since my last preview:

29/03 Egypt - Uganda
29/03 St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Antigua and Barbuda
31/03 Egypt - Chad
31/03 St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Antigua and Barbuda

For the other 203 teams, their April points are already set.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings.  Here's the list of results:

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

29/Mar Egypt - Uganda 1 (Friendly)
29/Mar St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Antigua and Barbuda X (Friendly)
31/Mar Egypt - Chad 1 (Friendly)
01/Apr St. Vincent and the Grenadines - Antigua and Barbuda X (Friendly)

Egypt could drop to 65th if they lose both matches - a new all time low for them.

Chad could climb just inside the top 100 with a win against Egypt - a new best ever ranking for them.

Of the top 10 teams, only Spain don't move. Germany up to 2nd, Uruguay climb to 3rd, Netherlands drop to 4th. Italy out of the top 10, replaced by Denmark.

Best movers:

25 - Korea DPR
24 - Turkmenistan
14 - Tajikistan

Worst movers:

-21 - Georgia
-20 - Israel and Cuba
-14 - Cape Verde Islands

Best movers in the top 50:

9 - Libya and El Salvador
8 - Colombia and Romania
7 - Wales

Worst movers in the top 50:

-20 - Israel
-10 - Montenegro
-6 - Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Estonia

Japan return to 2nd in Asia, with Korea Republic dropping to third. Korea did peak at the right moment to be top seeded for the World Cup draw. China PR replace Uzbekistan in the Asian top 5.

Mali and Zambia switch places in the African top 5, with Mali climbing to 4th.

El Salvador climb to 3rd place in CONCACAF.

Colombia replace Paraguay in the CONMEBOL top 5.

New Caledonia up to 2nd in Oceania.

Germany up to 2nd and Portugal up to 4th in Europe, with Netherlands and England dropping one place each.

Uruguay (3rd - 4th in September 2011)
Libya (46th - 53rd in February 2012)
El Salvador (49th - 54th in February 2012)
Philippines (148th - 150th in December 2010)

Philippines could climb to 147th if St. Vincent and the Grenadines manage at most one draw from their two matches against Antigua and Barbuda.

American Samoa will return to their best ever ranking - 186th, first achieved in December 2011.

Three teams will return to their worst ever rankings:

India (165th - first happened in March 2007)
British Virgin Islands (199th - first happened in December 2011)
Brunei Darussalam (202nd - first happened in December 2011)

Eight teams will drop to new lows:

Bulgaria (96th - 88th in February 2012)
Iceland (131st - 124th in August 2011)
Cyprus (133rd - 129th in March 2012)
Thailand (141st - 139th in March 2012)
Singapore (158th - 152nd in November 2011)
Barbados (171st - 170th in March 2012)
Solomon Islands (184th - 182nd in April 2011)
Kyrgyzstan (195th - 192nd in February 2012)

Probable April 2012 rank - Team - Probable April 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points

1	Spain	1442	0	-119
2	Germany	1345	1	13
3	Uruguay	1309	1	20
4	Netherlands	1207	-2	-172
5	Portugal	1190	2	84
6	Brazil	1165	-1	8
7	England	1132	-1	11
8	Croatia	1114	2	65
9	Denmark	1069	2	44
10	Argentina	1066	-2	-36
11	Russia	1049	1	46
12	Italy	1041	-3	-21
13	Chile	967	1	17
14	Greece	961	-1	8
15	Côte d'Ivoire	951	0	7
16	France	938	0	0
17	Sweden	931	0	5
18	Republic of Ireland	891	1	19
18	Switzerland	891	0	0
20	Mexico	868	2	19
21	Australia	862	-1	-6
22	Ghana	816	1	-4
23	Colombia	815	8	67
24	Norway	805	0	8
25	Paraguay	803	0	12
26	Czech Republic	798	3	36
27	Bosnia-Herzegovina	792	-6	-58
28	Slovenia	781	0	16
29	USA	779	-2	7
30	Japan	753	3	13
31	Korea Republic	746	-1	-5
32	Serbia	725	-6	-54
33	Turkey	720	-1	-27
34	Peru	719	0	-1
35	Slovakia	716	0	6
36	Hungary	692	1	34
37	Ecuador	673	2	25
38	Algeria	667	-3	-43
39	Mali	656	3	27
40	Zambia	640	1	10
41	Wales	635	7	55
42	Gabon	621	1	4
43	Venezuela	617	3	24
44	Belgium	604	-4	-38
45	Romania	603	8	30
46	Libya	602	9	36
47	Armenia	598	-3	-3
48	Scotland	596	3	22
49	El Salvador	589	9	35
49	Ukraine	589	0	11
51	Iran	578	0	4
52	Panama	575	-2	-1
53	Estonia	574	-6	-11
54	Montenegro	569	-10	-32
55	Egypt	566	9	36
56	Jamaica	565	-2	-6
57	Tunisia	563	-1	-1
58	Israel	558	-20	-93
59	Costa Rica	557	0	7
60	Nigeria	554	-3	-3
61	Honduras	550	2	17
62	Morocco	548	-1	3
63	Sierra Leone	533	10	68
64	Cameroon	526	2	21
65	Poland	514	10	53
66	China PR	503	2	8
67	Guinea	499	-2	-10
68	Belarus	494	1	4
69	Uzbekistan	493	-2	-9
70	Iraq	488	6	28
71	South Africa	482	-11	-67
72	Haiti	477	0	8
73	Austria	475	-2	3
74	Latvia	465	4	21
75	Canada	450	4	7
76	Cape Verde Islands	449	-14	-93
77	Senegal	448	-7	-34
78	Angola	440	3	16
79	Finland	430	5	18
80	Burkina Faso	426	-3	-25
81	Jordan	420	2	0
82	Guatemala	419	4	15
83	Trinidad and Tobago	417	-1	-6
84	Albania	384	-4	-48
84	Qatar	384	4	-4
86	Korea DPR	377	25	78
87	Kuwait	376	7	8
88	Togo	374	9	25
89	Lithuania	373	2	-10
89	Saudi Arabia	373	-1	-15
91	Congo	366	10	35
92	Uganda	362	-4	-26
93	Bahrain	361	0	-12
93	Oman	361	-1	-20
95	Georgia	360	-21	-102
96	Bulgaria	354	-11	-52
97	Vietnam	347	1	0
98	FYR Macedonia	342	4	14
99	Guyana	341	0	0
100	Northern Ireland	338	-13	-62
101	Antigua and Barbuda	335	-6	-25
102	Malawi	332	-6	-22
103	Equatorial Guinea	331	5	26
104	Zimbabwe	328	2	21
105	Rwanda	327	0	11
106	Mozambique	322	-2	3
107	Botswana	321	-7	-17
108	Bermuda	318	-5	-3
109	Bolivia	308	-3	1
110	Azerbaijan	305	6	20
111	St. Kitts and Nevis	298	-2	-3
112	Liberia	293	13	25
113	Gambia	292	10	21
113	Sudan	292	-3	-8
115	Chad	289	-3	-4
116	Sao Tome e Principe	288	-1	0
117	Kenya	285	-4	-7
118	Faroe Islands	284	-2	-1
119	Congo DR	283	1	2
119	Luxembourg	283	8	19
121	Namibia	281	11	31
121	United Arab Emirates	281	1	6
123	Niger	274	-9	-15
124	Central African Republic	271	7	20
125	Benin	269	2	5
126	Syria	268	0	1
127	Burundi	267	5	17
128	Lebanon	266	-4	-4
129	Liechtenstein	261	8	25
130	New Zealand	256	-11	-28
131	Iceland	255	-10	-22
131	Tajikistan	255	14	45
133	Cyprus	252	-4	-10
133	Suriname	252	-3	-2
135	Dominican Republic	247	0	0
136	Cuba	244	-20	-41
137	Kazakhstan	243	5	19
138	Ethiopia	236	2	5
138	Puerto Rico	236	-4	-13
140	Belize	235	-4	-3
141	Thailand	232	-2	-3
142	Moldova	222	1	6
142	Turkmenistan	222	24	108
144	Grenada	217	-7	-19
145	Tanzania	215	-4	-13
146	Nicaragua	211	-2	0
147	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	184	-1	-4
148	Philippines	182	8	46
149	Nepal	164	4	20
150	Malta	161	-2	9
151	Indonesia	160	-4	0
152	Bangladesh	154	12	34
153	Palestine	151	7	20
154	New Caledonia	150	8	24
155	Samoa	149	-5	0
156	Malaysia	148	-4	0
156	Yemen	148	-8	-4
158	Singapore	145	-8	-4
159	Curacao	138	-5	-4
160	Fiji	133	-3	0
161	Bahamas	132	-6	-9
161	Hong Kong	132	-3	0
163	Lesotho	131	-3	0
164	Maldives	130	10	35
165	India	122	-7	-10
166	Madagascar	121	-3	-2
167	Aruba	120	-3	0
168	Afghanistan	118	10	33
169	Chinese Taipei	117	-1	7
170	Guinea-Bissau	116	-2	6
171	Barbados	106	-1	-1
172	Vanuatu	103	0	0
173	Cambodia	101	-7	-13
173	Myanmar	101	4	15
175	Laos	96	-2	0
176	Dominica	95	-2	0
177	Mongolia	90	-6	-16
178	Tonga	88	-2	0
179	Swaziland	86	0	3
179	Tahiti	86	4	13
181	Sri Lanka	82	5	20
182	Pakistan	80	-1	4
183	US Virgin Islands	78	-3	-4
184	Solomon Islands	75	-2	0
185	Cayman Islands	72	-1	0
186	American Samoa	61	1	0
187	Comoros	60	1	5
188	St. Lucia	52	-3	-13
189	Seychelles	47	0	0
190	Eritrea	45	0	0
191	Somalia	43	0	0
192	Mauritius	37	3	5
193	Papua New Guinea	34	1	0
194	Guam	32	-1	-4
195	Kyrgyzstan	29	-3	-10
196	Cook Islands	28	0	0
197	Djibouti	23	0	0
198	Macau	19	1	-1
199	British Virgin Islands	13	-2	-10
200	Anguilla	9	0	0
201	Bhutan	6	0	0
202	Brunei Darussalam	4	-1	-2
202	Mauritania	4	1	0
204	Timor-Leste	2	0	0
205	Andorra	0	0	0
205	Montserrat	0	0	0
205	San Marino	0	0	0
205	Turks and Caicos Islands	0	0	0

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.