Only the AFC Challenge Cup and two friendlies (Chile - Peru and Jamaica - Costa Rica) before the deadline. All Challenge Cup teams are below 100th, but there's good news for them as FIFA have upgraded ACC matches from friendly to continental qualifier.
Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. Here's the list of results:
Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)
1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins
09/Mar Korea DPR - Philippines 1 (Continental Qualifier)
09/Mar India - Tajikistan X (Continental Qualifier)
10/Mar Palestine - Turkmenistan 2 (Continental Qualifier)
10/Mar Nepal - Maldives X (Continental Qualifier)
11/Mar Tajikistan - Korea DPR 2 (Continental Qualifier)
11/Mar Philippines - India 2 (Continental Qualifier)
12/Mar Maldives - Palestine 2 (Continental Qualifier)
12/Mar Nepal - Turkmenistan 2 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Mar Tajikistan - Philippines 1 (Continental Qualifier)
13/Mar Korea DPR - India 1 (Continental Qualifier)
16/Mar Turkmenistan - Tajikistan 1 (Continental Qualifier)
16/Mar Korea DPR - Palestine 1 (Continental Qualifier)
19/Mar Palestine - Tajikistan X Tajikistan PSO (Continental Qualifier)
19/Mar Korea DPR - Turkmenistan 1 (Continental Qualifier)
21/Mar Chile - Peru 1 (Friendly)
21/Mar Jamaica - Costa Rica 1 (Friendly)
With the exception of Spain, all top 10 teams will move around, with Italy dropping out and Denmark taking their place.
Liberia, Afghanistan, Sierra Leone and Poland will all climb 10 or more places.
Georgia, Cuba and Israel will drop 18 or more spots.
In the top 50, Libya, El Salvador, Colombia, Romania and Wales will climb 7 or more places.
Israel will drop at least 18 places, Montenegro at least 10. Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Estonia at least 6.
Four teams will improve their ranking:
Uruguay (3rd - 4th in September 2011)
Libya (46th - 53rd in February 2012)
El Salvador (49th - 54th in February 2012)
Chad (103rd or higher - 112th in March 2012)
American Samoa will return to their best ever ranking: 186th, first achieved in December 2011.
Two teams will return to their worst ever ranking:
British Virgin Islands (199th - 199th in December 2011)
Brunei Darussalam (202nd - 202nd in December 2011)
Eight teams will drop to new lows:
Bulgaria (96th or lower - 88th in February 2012)
Iceland (131st or lower - 124th in August 2011)
Cyprus (132nd or lower - 129th in March 2012)
Thailand (140th or lower - 139th in March 2012)
Singapore (156th or lower - 152nd in November 2011)
Barbados (171st - 170th in March 2012)
Solomon Islands (184th - 182nd in April 2011)
Kyrgyzstan (195th - 192nd in February 2012)
Probable April 2012 rank - Team - Probable April 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points
| 1 | Spain | 1442 | 0 | -119 |
| 2 | Germany | 1345 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Uruguay | 1309 | 1 | 20 |
| 4 | Netherlands | 1207 | -2 | -172 |
| 5 | Portugal | 1190 | 2 | 84 |
| 6 | Brazil | 1165 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | England | 1132 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Croatia | 1114 | 2 | 65 |
| 9 | Denmark | 1069 | 2 | 44 |
| 10 | Argentina | 1066 | -2 | -36 |
| 11 | Russia | 1049 | 1 | 46 |
| 12 | Italy | 1041 | -3 | -21 |
| 13 | Chile | 967 | 1 | 17 |
| 14 | Greece | 961 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Côte d'Ivoire | 951 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | France | 938 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Sweden | 931 | 0 | 5 |
| 18 | Republic of Ireland | 891 | 1 | 19 |
| 18 | Switzerland | 891 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Mexico | 868 | 2 | 19 |
| 21 | Australia | 862 | -1 | -6 |
| 22 | Ghana | 816 | 1 | -4 |
| 23 | Colombia | 815 | 8 | 67 |
| 24 | Norway | 805 | 0 | 8 |
| 25 | Paraguay | 803 | 0 | 12 |
| 26 | Czech Republic | 798 | 3 | 36 |
| 27 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 792 | -6 | -58 |
| 28 | Slovenia | 781 | 0 | 16 |
| 29 | USA | 779 | -2 | 7 |
| 30 | Japan | 753 | 3 | 13 |
| 31 | Korea Republic | 746 | -1 | -5 |
| 32 | Serbia | 725 | -6 | -54 |
| 33 | Turkey | 720 | -1 | -27 |
| 34 | Peru | 719 | 0 | -1 |
| 35 | Slovakia | 716 | 0 | 6 |
| 36 | Hungary | 692 | 1 | 34 |
| 37 | Ecuador | 673 | 2 | 25 |
| 38 | Algeria | 667 | -3 | -43 |
| 39 | Mali | 656 | 3 | 27 |
| 40 | Zambia | 640 | 1 | 10 |
| 41 | Wales | 635 | 7 | 55 |
| 42 | Gabon | 621 | 1 | 4 |
| 43 | Venezuela | 617 | 3 | 24 |
| 44 | Belgium | 604 | -4 | -38 |
| 45 | Romania | 603 | 8 | 30 |
| 46 | Libya | 602 | 9 | 36 |
| 47 | Armenia | 598 | -3 | -3 |
| 48 | Scotland | 596 | 3 | 22 |
| 49 | El Salvador | 589 | 9 | 35 |
| 49 | Ukraine | 589 | 0 | 11 |
| 51 | Jamaica | 586 | 3 | 15 |
| 52 | Iran | 578 | -1 | 4 |
| 53 | Panama | 575 | -3 | -1 |
| 54 | Estonia | 574 | -7 | -11 |
| 55 | Montenegro | 569 | -11 | -32 |
| 56 | Tunisia | 563 | 0 | -1 |
| 57 | Israel | 558 | -19 | -93 |
| 58 | Egypt | 557 | 6 | 27 |
| 59 | Nigeria | 554 | -2 | -3 |
| 60 | Honduras | 550 | 3 | 17 |
| 61 | Costa Rica | 549 | -2 | -1 |
| 62 | Morocco | 548 | -1 | 3 |
| 63 | Sierra Leone | 533 | 10 | 68 |
| 64 | Cameroon | 526 | 2 | 21 |
| 65 | Poland | 514 | 10 | 53 |
| 66 | China PR | 503 | 2 | 8 |
| 67 | Guinea | 499 | -2 | -10 |
| 68 | Belarus | 494 | 1 | 4 |
| 69 | Uzbekistan | 493 | -2 | -9 |
| 70 | Iraq | 488 | 6 | 28 |
| 71 | South Africa | 482 | -11 | -67 |
| 72 | Haiti | 477 | 0 | 8 |
| 73 | Austria | 475 | -2 | 3 |
| 74 | Latvia | 465 | 4 | 21 |
| 75 | Canada | 450 | 4 | 7 |
| 76 | Cape Verde Islands | 449 | -14 | -93 |
| 77 | Senegal | 448 | -7 | -34 |
| 78 | Angola | 440 | 3 | 16 |
| 79 | Finland | 430 | 5 | 18 |
| 80 | Burkina Faso | 426 | -3 | -25 |
| 81 | Jordan | 420 | 2 | 0 |
| 82 | Guatemala | 419 | 4 | 15 |
| 83 | Trinidad and Tobago | 417 | -1 | -6 |
| 84 | Albania | 384 | -4 | -48 |
| 84 | Qatar | 384 | 4 | -4 |
| 86 | Korea DPR | 377 | 25 | 78 |
| 87 | Kuwait | 376 | 7 | 8 |
| 87 | Uganda | 376 | 1 | -12 |
| 89 | Togo | 374 | 8 | 25 |
| 90 | Lithuania | 373 | 1 | -10 |
| 90 | Saudi Arabia | 373 | -2 | -15 |
| 92 | Congo | 366 | 9 | 35 |
| 93 | Bahrain | 361 | 0 | -12 |
| 93 | Oman | 361 | -1 | -20 |
| 95 | Georgia | 360 | -21 | -102 |
| 96 | Antigua and Barbuda | 358 | -1 | -2 |
| 97 | Bulgaria | 354 | -12 | -52 |
| 98 | Vietnam | 347 | 0 | 0 |
| 99 | FYR Macedonia | 342 | 3 | 14 |
| 100 | Guyana | 341 | -1 | 0 |
| 101 | Northern Ireland | 338 | -14 | -62 |
| 102 | Chad | 335 | 10 | 42 |
| 103 | Malawi | 332 | -7 | -22 |
| 104 | Equatorial Guinea | 331 | 4 | 26 |
| 105 | Zimbabwe | 328 | 1 | 21 |
| 106 | Rwanda | 327 | -1 | 11 |
| 107 | Mozambique | 322 | -3 | 3 |
| 108 | Botswana | 321 | -8 | -17 |
| 109 | Bermuda | 318 | -6 | -3 |
| 110 | Bolivia | 308 | -4 | 1 |
| 111 | Azerbaijan | 305 | 5 | 20 |
| 112 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 298 | -3 | -3 |
| 113 | Liberia | 293 | 12 | 25 |
| 114 | Gambia | 292 | 9 | 21 |
| 114 | Sudan | 292 | -4 | -8 |
| 116 | Sao Tome e Principe | 288 | -1 | 0 |
| 117 | Kenya | 285 | -4 | -7 |
| 118 | Faroe Islands | 284 | -2 | -1 |
| 119 | Congo DR | 283 | 1 | 2 |
| 119 | Luxembourg | 283 | 8 | 19 |
| 121 | Namibia | 281 | 11 | 31 |
| 121 | United Arab Emirates | 281 | 1 | 6 |
| 123 | Niger | 274 | -9 | -15 |
| 124 | Central African Republic | 271 | 7 | 20 |
| 125 | Benin | 269 | 2 | 5 |
| 126 | Syria | 268 | 0 | 1 |
| 127 | Burundi | 267 | 5 | 17 |
| 128 | Lebanon | 266 | -4 | -4 |
| 129 | Liechtenstein | 261 | 8 | 25 |
| 130 | New Zealand | 256 | -11 | -28 |
| 131 | Iceland | 255 | -10 | -22 |
| 132 | Tajikistan | 254 | 13 | 44 |
| 133 | Turkmenistan | 253 | 33 | 139 |
| 134 | Cyprus | 252 | -5 | -10 |
| 134 | Suriname | 252 | -4 | -2 |
| 136 | Dominican Republic | 247 | -1 | 0 |
| 137 | Cuba | 244 | -21 | -41 |
| 138 | Kazakhstan | 243 | 4 | 19 |
| 139 | Ethiopia | 236 | 1 | 5 |
| 139 | Puerto Rico | 236 | -5 | -13 |
| 141 | Belize | 235 | -5 | -3 |
| 142 | Thailand | 232 | -3 | -3 |
| 143 | Moldova | 222 | 0 | 6 |
| 144 | Grenada | 217 | -7 | -19 |
| 145 | Tanzania | 215 | -4 | -13 |
| 146 | Nicaragua | 211 | -2 | 0 |
| 147 | St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 190 | -1 | 2 |
| 148 | Nepal | 173 | 5 | 29 |
| 149 | Malta | 161 | -1 | 9 |
| 150 | Indonesia | 160 | -3 | 0 |
| 151 | Bangladesh | 154 | 13 | 34 |
| 152 | Palestine | 152 | 8 | 21 |
| 153 | New Caledonia | 150 | 9 | 24 |
| 154 | Samoa | 149 | -4 | 0 |
| 155 | Malaysia | 148 | -3 | 0 |
| 155 | Yemen | 148 | -7 | -4 |
| 157 | India | 147 | 1 | 15 |
| 158 | Singapore | 145 | -8 | -4 |
| 159 | Curacao | 138 | -5 | -4 |
| 160 | Fiji | 133 | -3 | 0 |
| 161 | Bahamas | 132 | -6 | -9 |
| 161 | Hong Kong | 132 | -3 | 0 |
| 163 | Lesotho | 131 | -3 | 0 |
| 164 | Philippines | 124 | -8 | -12 |
| 165 | Madagascar | 121 | -2 | -2 |
| 166 | Aruba | 120 | -2 | 0 |
| 167 | Afghanistan | 118 | 11 | 33 |
| 168 | Chinese Taipei | 117 | 0 | 7 |
| 168 | Maldives | 117 | 6 | 22 |
| 170 | Guinea-Bissau | 116 | -2 | 6 |
| 171 | Barbados | 106 | -1 | -1 |
| 172 | Vanuatu | 103 | 0 | 0 |
| 173 | Cambodia | 101 | -7 | -13 |
| 173 | Myanmar | 101 | 4 | 15 |
| 175 | Laos | 96 | -2 | 0 |
| 176 | Dominica | 95 | -2 | 0 |
| 177 | Mongolia | 90 | -6 | -16 |
| 178 | Tonga | 88 | -2 | 0 |
| 179 | Swaziland | 86 | 0 | 3 |
| 179 | Tahiti | 86 | 4 | 13 |
| 181 | Sri Lanka | 82 | 5 | 20 |
| 182 | Pakistan | 80 | -1 | 4 |
| 183 | US Virgin Islands | 78 | -3 | -4 |
| 184 | Solomon Islands | 75 | -2 | 0 |
| 185 | Cayman Islands | 72 | -1 | 0 |
| 186 | American Samoa | 61 | 1 | 0 |
| 187 | Comoros | 60 | 1 | 5 |
| 188 | St. Lucia | 52 | -3 | -13 |
| 189 | Seychelles | 47 | 0 | 0 |
| 190 | Eritrea | 45 | 0 | 0 |
| 191 | Somalia | 43 | 0 | 0 |
| 192 | Mauritius | 37 | 3 | 5 |
| 193 | Papua New Guinea | 34 | 1 | 0 |
| 194 | Guam | 32 | -1 | -4 |
| 195 | Kyrgyzstan | 29 | -3 | -10 |
| 196 | Cook Islands | 28 | 0 | 0 |
| 197 | Djibouti | 23 | 0 | 0 |
| 198 | Macau | 19 | 1 | -1 |
| 199 | British Virgin Islands | 13 | -2 | -10 |
| 200 | Anguilla | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 201 | Bhutan | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 202 | Brunei Darussalam | 4 | -1 | -2 |
| 202 | Mauritania | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 204 | Timor-Leste | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 205 | Andorra | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 205 | Montserrat | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 205 | San Marino | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 205 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Is there any chance Uruguay could become # 1, say just before the EURO?
ReplyDeleteThe deadline for the June ranking is June 1st. Before that date Uruguay has planned friendlies against Chile (9/5) and Russia (25/5) and Spain hasn't planned any preparatory friendlies at all, but that will change.
ReplyDeleteWith two wins for Uruguay they can reach 1327 pts. Spain (without any friendlies) will have 1468 pts.
Let's assume Spain plans some friendlies. If they play two and lose them both then they'll have 1378 pts. And with playing and losing three they will still have 1344 pts.
I don't see it happening for Uruguay, at least not before the EURO.
Is there any risk that Uruguay could lose their third place before the EURO? As one commenter pointed out, Uruguay suffered a big drop in the rankings just before Copa America, only to bounce back up after winning the tournament.
DeleteTwo losses for Uruguay in their friendlies and two wins for the Netherlands in their friendlies against Bulgaria and Slovakia leaves NED with 1268 pts and URU with 1256 pts.
DeleteSo it could be, but it depends on the results in the friendlies in May for Germany, Uruguay and the Netherlands.
A close contest, I like that !
Great, thanks Ed. I just remembered there was some major point devaluation (and loss of ranking positions) for most South-American teams just before the Copa America, so I thought maybe the same could be the case for European teams before the EURO.
ReplyDeleteSlipping away...
ReplyDeleteNo matter. As long as we (England) stay in the top 7 (or 8 with Brazil involved) that's all that matters. That's the next draw, and will be more than enough for a top seed in Euro 2016 qualifying whenever they draw that. But I'm going to miss those upper places.
Uruguay to 3rd and Netherlands 2nd to 4th with that huge points dump is going to cause a stir methinks.
Lorric,
ReplyDeletethe Netherlands are just 'mixing' with the other toppers again. They had an exceptionally good year 2010 with corresponding 'soaringly' high points totals but from now on (starting with the EURO) the big gap with the rest of the top 10 will be gone due to devaluating results and they will have to fight again for their place.
No stir, just much more interesting to follow.... methinks.
why netherlands will loose all these points ?????
ReplyDeleteJad,
Deletebecause of devaluation of past results.
To be specific: it's mostly because of the two EURO-qualifier wins against Hungary march last year which will fall to the second time-frame and lose half their weight when calculating the april ranking.
Please visit site about EURO 2012 in Ukraine:
ReplyDeletehttp://nlru.blogspot.com/
@Ed
ReplyDeleteThanks for all the help!
why Germany will not devaluate points!!!!!
ReplyDeleteJad,
Deletetheory: a team gets points for all the match-results over the last four years. Per year (time frame) an average is calculated as sum points for matches played that time frame divided by matches played in that time frame. Those 4 year-averages are then summed, applying a weight. That sum is the FIFA-ranking score.
Read http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/procedureandschedule/menprocedure/index.html (and attached documents) if you want to know all the details.
Now over to Germany:
Their past results devaluate too, but their FIFA-ranking points remains the same because their first year average happens to climb a lot between the march ranking and the april ranking. And that's mostly because their friendly loss to Australia in march 2011 (which gave zero match points for Germany) drops to the second time frame.
Thanks again, Ed! :)
DeletePlease update the rankings.. Philippines won both against India and Tajikistan.. Lost to Turkmenistan in the Semis but win against Palestine in battle for third..
ReplyDeleteI've updated the rankings.
DeleteFIFA Ranking: April 2012 probable ranking (II)
Now that the AFC Challenge Cup is over, I wonder if you could do a comparison between teams' ranking with the new rule to rate the tournament as continental qualifiers and as friendlies.
ReplyDeleteIf you don't want to do all of the teams, just do the victors, Korea DPR, who won all their matches.
That adds Korea DPR to Australia, Korea Republic and Japan at the 2015 Asian Cup. The 4 teams that represented Asia in the last World Cup are the first to qualify for Asian Cup 2015.
Later today if I have the time.
DeleteAdditionally, how about turning Korea DPR's "friendly" wins at the last Challenge Cup into continental wins?
ReplyDeleteI guess these should be the different points for countries participating in the AFC-Challenge-Cup:
DeleteCountry Cont.Qual. Friendly
Turkmenistan 222 141
Korea DPR 377 307
Philippines 182 142
Palestine 151 123
Tajikistan 255 237
Maldives 130 118
Thanks EngelRS4.
Delete