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Friday, April 13, 2012

FIFA Ranking: May 2012 probable ranking

Next update: 4 May 2012.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 9 May.

Only 6 matches left before the deadline.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings.  Here's the list of results:

Before posting comments like: "Hey my team actually beat the other team! It's a mistake!" please read the previous paragraph again and look when these results were posted (Yes, before the matches actually took place!) ;)

1 - First team wins
X - Draw
2 - Second team wins

15/Apr Egypt - Mauritania 1 (Friendly)
17/Apr United Arab Emirates - Iran 2 (Friendly)
17/Apr Egypt - Iraq 1 (Friendly)
25/Apr Guatemala - Paraguay 2 (Friendly)
28/Apr Malaysia - Sri Lanka 1 (Friendly)
02/May Iran - Mozambique 1 (Friendly)

Team - Minimum points - Maximum points


Paraguay 786 801
Egypt 539 578
Iran 534 568
Iraq 468 493
Guatemala 396 431
Mozambique 300 348
United Arab Emirates 270 298
Malaysia 141 153
Sri Lanka 74 95
Mauritania 4 79

For the other 198 teams the May points are already set.

Argentina will climb 1 spot to 9th, with Denmark dropping to 10th.

Probable May 2012 rank - Team - Probable May 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1442 0 0
2 Germany 1345 0 0
3 Uruguay 1309 0 0
4 Netherlands 1207 0 0
5 Portugal 1190 0 0
6 Brazil 1165 0 0
7 England 1132 0 0
8 Croatia 1114 0 0
9 Argentina 1076 1 10
10 Denmark 1069 -1 0
11 Russia 1049 0 0
12 Italy 1041 0 0
13 Chile 968 0 1
14 Greece 961 0 0
15 Côte d'Ivoire 951 0 0
16 France 938 0 0
17 Sweden 931 0 0
18 Republic of Ireland 891 0 0
18 Switzerland 891 0 0
20 Mexico 867 0 -1
21 Australia 862 0 0
22 Ghana 816 0 0
23 Colombia 812 0 -3
24 Norway 805 0 0
25 Paraguay 801 0 -2
26 Czech Republic 798 0 0
27 Bosnia-Herzegovina 792 0 0
28 Slovenia 781 0 0
29 USA 779 0 0
30 Japan 753 0 0
31 Korea Republic 746 0 0
32 Serbia 725 0 0
33 Turkey 720 0 0
34 Slovakia 716 1 0
35 Hungary 692 1 0
36 Peru 691 -2 -28
37 Ecuador 679 0 6
38 Algeria 667 0 0
39 Mali 656 0 0
40 Zambia 640 0 0
41 Wales 635 0 0
42 Gabon 621 0 0
43 Venezuela 613 0 -4
44 Belgium 604 0 0
45 Romania 603 0 0
46 Libya 602 0 0
47 Armenia 598 0 0
48 Scotland 596 0 0
49 El Salvador 591 0 2
50 Ukraine 589 -1 0
51 Egypt 578 4 12
52 Jamaica 576 4 11
53 Panama 575 -1 0
54 Estonia 574 -1 0
55 Montenegro 569 -1 0
56 Iran 568 -5 -10
57 Tunisia 563 0 0
58 Israel 558 0 0
59 Costa Rica 549 0 -8
60 Morocco 548 2 0
61 Sierra Leone 542 2 9
62 Honduras 540 -1 -10
63 Nigeria 537 -3 -17
64 Cameroon 526 0 0
65 Poland 514 0 0
66 China PR 508 0 5
67 South Africa 500 4 18
68 Guinea 499 -1 0
69 Belarus 494 -1 0
70 Uzbekistan 493 -1 0
71 Haiti 486 1 9
72 Austria 475 1 0
73 Iraq 468 -3 -20
74 Latvia 465 0 0
75 Canada 450 0 0
76 Cape Verde Islands 449 0 0
77 Senegal 448 0 0
78 Angola 440 0 0
79 Finland 430 0 0
80 Burkina Faso 426 0 0
81 Jordan 420 0 0
82 Trinidad and Tobago 419 1 2
83 Guatemala 396 -1 -23
84 Albania 384 0 0
84 Qatar 384 0 0
86 Korea DPR 376 0 -1
86 Kuwait 376 1 0
88 Togo 374 0 0
89 Lithuania 373 0 0
89 Saudi Arabia 373 0 0
91 Congo 366 0 0
92 Oman 363 1 2
93 Uganda 362 -1 0
94 Bahrain 361 -1 0
95 Georgia 360 0 0
96 Bulgaria 354 0 0
97 Vietnam 347 0 0
98 FYR Macedonia 342 0 0
99 Guyana 341 0 0
100 Antigua and Barbuda 338 0 0
100 Northern Ireland 338 0 0
102 Malawi 332 0 0
103 Equatorial Guinea 330 0 -1
104 Zimbabwe 328 0 0
105 Rwanda 327 0 0
106 Botswana 321 1 0
107 Bermuda 318 1 0
108 Bolivia 308 1 0
109 Azerbaijan 305 1 0
110 Mozambique 300 -4 -22
111 St. Kitts and Nevis 298 0 0
112 Liberia 296 0 3
113 Gambia 292 0 0
113 Sudan 292 0 0
115 Chad 289 0 0
116 Sao Tome e Principe 288 0 0
117 Kenya 285 0 0
118 Faroe Islands 284 0 0
119 Luxembourg 283 0 0
120 Namibia 281 1 0
121 Niger 274 2 0
122 Central African Republic 271 2 0
123 United Arab Emirates 270 -2 -11
124 Benin 269 1 0
124 Congo DR 269 -5 -14
126 Syria 268 0 0
127 Burundi 267 0 0
128 Liechtenstein 261 1 0
129 Lebanon 260 -1 -6
130 New Zealand 256 0 0
131 Iceland 255 0 0
131 Tajikistan 255 0 0
133 Cyprus 252 0 0
133 Suriname 252 0 0
135 Dominican Republic 247 0 0
136 Cuba 244 0 0
137 Kazakhstan 243 0 0
138 Ethiopia 236 0 0
138 Puerto Rico 236 0 0
140 Belize 235 0 0
141 Thailand 232 0 0
142 Moldova 222 0 0
143 Grenada 221 1 4
144 Turkmenistan 220 -2 -2
145 Tanzania 217 0 2
146 Nicaragua 211 0 0
147 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 191 0 0
148 Philippines 172 0 -10
149 Nepal 164 0 0
150 Malta 161 0 0
151 Indonesia 159 0 -1
152 Bangladesh 156 0 2
153 Malaysia 153 3 5
154 Palestine 151 -1 0
155 New Caledonia 150 -1 0
156 Samoa 149 -1 0
157 Yemen 148 -1 0
158 Singapore 145 0 0
159 Curacao 138 0 0
160 Fiji 133 0 0
161 Bahamas 132 0 0
161 Hong Kong 132 0 0
163 Lesotho 131 0 0
164 India 122 1 0
164 Maldives 122 0 -8
166 Madagascar 121 0 0
167 Aruba 120 0 0
168 Chinese Taipei 117 1 0
169 Guinea-Bissau 116 1 0
170 Afghanistan 115 -2 -3
171 Barbados 106 0 0
172 Vanuatu 103 0 0
173 Laos 96 2 0
174 Dominica 95 2 0
175 Cambodia 94 -2 -7
175 Myanmar 94 -2 -7
177 Mongolia 88 0 -2
177 Tonga 88 1 0
179 Swaziland 86 0 0
179 Tahiti 86 0 0
181 Pakistan 80 1 0
182 US Virgin Islands 78 1 0
183 Solomon Islands 75 1 0
184 Sri Lanka 74 -3 -8
185 Cayman Islands 72 0 0
186 American Samoa 61 0 0
187 Comoros 60 0 0
188 St. Lucia 52 0 0
189 Seychelles 47 0 0
190 Eritrea 45 0 0
191 Somalia 43 0 0
192 Mauritius 37 0 0
193 Papua New Guinea 34 0 0
194 Guam 32 0 0
195 Kyrgyzstan 29 0 0
196 Cook Islands 28 0 0
197 Djibouti 23 0 0
198 Macau 16 0 -3
199 British Virgin Islands 13 0 0
200 Anguilla 9 0 0
201 Bhutan 4 0 -2
201 Brunei Darussalam 4 1 0
201 Mauritania 4 1 0
204 Timor-Leste 2 0 0
205 Andorra 0 0 0
205 Montserrat 0 0 0
205 San Marino 0 0 0
205 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

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13 comments:

  1. AnonymousApril 14, 2012 at 11:58 AM

    how does Egypt reach to 578 points when beating Nigeria, Moritania & Iraq, while if we follow the FIFA Page calculations, Egept shall reach to 588 pointa if won against Nigeria & Iraq only, and did not play against Moritania ??? would you expalin please? how does egypt earn less points if played & won more game vs Moritania ??
    Thanks !

    ReplyDelete
  2. LorricApril 14, 2012 at 4:23 PM

    Mauritania are very weak. They drag Egypt's average down. They'd be better off not playing them at all. Why ae they playing a friendly against one of the worst teams in the World?

    ReplyDelete
  3. EdApril 15, 2012 at 2:02 PM

    If Egypt does not play against Mauritania and wins against Iraq (and Nigeria) they will have 2748.99 pts in 11 matches in the last year so an average of 249.91 FIFA-pts.
    If they do play and win against Mauritania they will get an extra 129 pts for this match, so for the last year 2877.99 pts in 12 matches which is an average of 239.83 FIFA-pts.
    So this match will cost Egypt at least 10 FIFA-points (if they win). And this is mainly because their opponent is so lowly ranked and a win therefore will earn them much less (129 pts) than their last-year average (239.8 pts) so far.

    As Lorric states: they will be better off not playing them at all.

    ReplyDelete
  4. vedadpasicApril 16, 2012 at 3:10 AM

    Hey! Is there any way of finding the past four years of FIFA world ranking points accumulated by one team (I'm in particular interested in Bosnia), in order to be able to predict the team's position - I can only find the results on the FIFA site, and I would also have to calculate all of thm by hand, looking at the ten position of the opponents etc etc... Just wondering whether there is a shortcut?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousApril 16, 2012 at 9:17 AM

    I tried to make a database to compute the world ranking, but a big problem is: when is the real (and not the official) deadline set for the used ranking in point-calculation? Is it possible to get an overview about this from after WC2006?
    Official is Thursday, but as I read in this blog FIFA try to take up to Sunday or Saturday etc.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  6. EdApril 16, 2012 at 9:24 AM

    Hey Vedadpasic,

    there is not really a shortcut. FIFA is not that generous with information about their calculations, although it has improved a lot already compared to the old days.

    But it happens that I have this info for you. Sorry for the lousy format but here are all the points per match played by Bosnia in the last four years and their FIFA-points calculation.

    cycle date opponent pts
    4 1-6-2008 AZE 201.000
    4 20-8-2008 BUL 0.000
    4 6-9-2008 ESP 0.000
    4 10-9-2008 EST 540.000
    4 11-10-2008 TUR 0.000
    4 15-10-2008 ARM 742.500
    4 19-11-2008 SVN 426.000
    4 28-3-2009 BEL 1132.500
    4 1-4-2009 BEL 1132.500
    3 1-6-2009 UZB 112.850
    3 9-6-2009 OMA 333.000
    3 12-8-2009 IRN 0.000
    3 5-9-2009 ARM 562.500
    3 9-9-2009 TUR 432.500
    3 10-10-2009 EST 645.000
    3 14-10-2009 ESP 0.000
    3 14-11-2009 POR 0.000
    3 18-11-2009 POR 0.000
    3 3-3-2010 GHA 477.300
    2 29-5-2010 SWE 0.000
    2 3-6-2010 GER 0.000
    2 10-8-2010 QAT 94.860
    2 3-9-2010 LUX 622.500
    2 7-9-2010 FRA 0.000
    2 8-10-2010 ALB 332.500
    2 17-11-2010 SVK 546.000
    2 10-12-2010 POL 129.000
    2 9-2-2011 MEX 0.000
    2 26-3-2011 ROU 1110.000
    1 3-6-2011 ROU 0.000
    1 7-6-2011 ALB 1125.000
    1 10-8-2011 GRE 187.000
    1 2-9-2011 BLR 1192.500
    1 6-9-2011 BLR 1192.500
    1 7-10-2011 LUX 645.000
    1 11-10-2011 FRA 470.000
    1 11-11-2011 POR 480.000
    1 15-11-2011 POR 0.000
    1 16-12-2011 POL 0.000
    1 28-2-2012 BRA 0.000

    And this leads to 792.5 points for Bosnia in the april 2012 ranking:
    cycle pts MP MP_rank avg_pts weight w_avg
    1 5292.000 11 11 481.09 1 481.09
    2 2834.860 10 10 283.49 0.5 141.74
    3 2563.150 10 10 256.32 0.3 76.89
    4 4174.500 9 9 463.83 0.2 92.77
    FIFA BIH 792.50

    I hope this is what you are looking for.

    ReplyDelete
  7. EdApril 16, 2012 at 9:25 PM

    Hey Anonymous,

    Here is a list with 'real' deadline-dates for each published ranking after WC2006. This deadline-date is some kind of border. A match played before the deadline-date uses the ranking of the previous month as the ranking date (the strength of the opponent is based on the position of the opponent in that ranking). A match played on or after the deadline-date uses the ranking of the newly published ranking.

    Keep in mind that for the dates marked with ** the border is not so strict. There you'll have to experiment a bit to find out for each match played on or somewhere around that deadline-date which ranking month is used to determine the strength of the opponent. Be warned that even matches played on the same day can have different ranking dates in these cases.

    And then there are some other anomalies in the FIFA-points calculation, because sometimes FIFA includes a match into their fixture list some months after the match is actually played. And in that case they use the date they include the match into the list as the ranking-date and not the date the match was played. Odd and confusing! The match Poland - Bosnia (16/12/2011) is a recent example. This match was eventually included in march 2012 (I don't know the reason for this delay) and 'thus' uses the march 2012 ranking to determine the opponents strength.

    Release Date Deadline Date
    12-7-2006 10-7-2006
    16-8-2006 10-8-2006
    13-9-2006 7-9-2006
    18-10-2006 12-10-2006
    22-11-2006 16-11-2006
    18-12-2006 15-12-2006
    17-1-2007 14-1-2007
    14-2-2007 12-2-2007**
    14-3-2007 8-3-2007**
    18-4-2007 12-4-2007
    16-5-2007 10-5-2007
    13-6-2007 10-6-2007
    18-7-2007 16-7-2007**
    22-8-2007 19-8-2007
    19-9-2007 13-9-2007
    24-10-2007 19-10-2007
    23-11-2007 22-11-2007
    17-12-2007 8-12-2007
    16-1-2008 13-1-2008
    13-2-2008 11-2-2008**
    12-3-2008 10-3-2008
    9-4-2008 5-4-2008**
    7-5-2008 1-5-2008
    4-6-2008 2-6-2008**
    2-7-2008 30-6-2008
    6-8-2008 3-8-2008
    3-9-2008 31-8-2008**
    8-10-2008 5-10-2008
    12-11-2008 10-11-2008**
    17-12-2008 12-12-2008
    14-1-2009 12-1-2009**
    11-2-2009 7-2-2009
    11-3-2009 8-3-2009
    8-4-2009 2-4-2009
    6-5-2009 1-5-2009
    3-6-2009 1-6-2009**
    1-7-2009 29-6-2009**
    5-8-2009 30-7-2009
    2-9-2009 30-8-2009
    16-10-2009 15-10-2009
    20-11-2009 19-11-2009
    16-12-2009 11-12-2009
    3-2-2010 1-2-2010**
    3-3-2010 28-2-2010
    31-3-2010 25-3-2010
    28-4-2010 23-4-2010
    26-5-2010 24-5-2010
    14-7-2010 12-7-2010
    11-8-2010 5-8-2010
    15-9-2010 11-9-2010
    20-10-2010 16-10-2010
    17-11-2010 13-11-2010
    15-12-2010 13-12-2010
    12-1-2011 9-1-2011**
    2-2-2011 30-1-2011
    9-3-2011 3-3-2011
    13-4-2011 8-4-2011
    18-5-2011 15-5-2011
    29-6-2011 26-6-2011
    27-7-2011 25-7-2011**
    24-8-2011 19-8-2011
    21-9-2011 15-9-2011
    19-10-2011 16-10-2011
    23-11-2011 17-11-2011
    21-12-2011 19-12-2011
    18-1-2012 12-1-2012
    15-2-2012 13-2-2012
    7-3-2012 4-3-2012
    11-4-2012 5-4-2012

    You can see from this list that the official deadline (the thursday prior to the wednesday when the ranking is published) is used in only a very small percentage of all the rankings.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousApril 19, 2012 at 4:16 AM

      Could you please explain how you know that the march ranking was used, instead of the (actually correct) november ranking for the match POL-BIH?

      Thanks a lot for your answer in advance!

      Delete
    2. EdApril 19, 2012 at 12:01 PM

      The FIFA-points totals for POL and BIH that I calculated for the april ranking were different from those in the published april ranking. That is the sign that a match was included in the FIFA-calculation that was not present in my database. I found that the december-match between POL and BIH was the new entry in the FIFA-fixture list.
      After that it is a matter of a little experimenting which ranking was used to determine the opponents strength. The leading information in this search is the last-year average (303.52) for Poland presented on the FIFA-website if you click on Poland in the april ranking table. My calculated last-year average for Poland has to correspond with that piece of information. And it did correspond if I used the march 2012-ranking (BIH on spot 21) instead of the november 2011-ranking (BIH on spot 23) or december 2011-ranking (BIH on spot 20).

      Delete
    3. AnonymousApril 25, 2012 at 12:55 AM

      1000x thanks for your help and explanation!

      Delete
    4. EdApril 26, 2012 at 4:51 PM

      You're welcome !

      Delete
  8. vedadpasicApril 17, 2012 at 1:16 AM

    Ed, You are most kind - thanks so much for this and for Your effort and quick reply, this is exactly what I was looking for!

    And the format is fine! :)

    Cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  9. EdgarApril 20, 2012 at 12:04 PM

    @Ed and @Lorric

    Thanks for the help!

    ReplyDelete