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Wednesday, June 20, 2012

FIFA Ranking: July 2012 probable ranking (II)

Next update: 29 June 2012.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 4 July 2012.

Probable results computed using the Elo Ratings. See the list of results used for this ranking.

Only 18 matches left. 7 EURO 2012 knock-out stage matches, one 2013 AFCON qualifier and 10 friendlies (9 of them in the Arab Nations Cup). 21 teams are involved in these matches. For the other 187 teams the totals are already final. Also check the preview to see how the totals can vary for these 21 teams.


Best movers:

41 - Tahiti
27 - Bolivia
17 - Namibia

Worst movers:

-31 - Faroe Islands
-22 - Vietnam
-20 - Gambia

Vietnam can fall an extra 14 places with a loss to Mozambique.

Best movers in the top 50:

9 - Czech Republic, Ecuador and Egypt
7 - Korea Republic
6 - Peru and Ukraine

The Czechs will climb at least 9 places, as probable results have them losing against Portugal in the quarter finals.
Egypt will climb at most 9 places - Elo has them winning against Central African Republic.

Worst movers in the top 50:

-8 - Republic of Ireland, Ghana, USA and Scotland
-7 - Venezuela and Iran
-6 - Brazil

Brazil could fall even more if Greece, France and Czech Republic perform extremely well in the knock-out stages of the EURO.

Probable July 2012 rank - Team - Probable July 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1695 0 239
2 Germany 1597 1 309
3 England 1327 3 182
4 Uruguay 1297 -2 5
5 Portugal 1170 5 174
6 Argentina 1095 1 -42
7 Netherlands 1079 -3 -155
8 Italy 1071 4 94
9 Croatia 1050 -1 -3
10 Denmark 1017 -1 -2
11 Brazil 1012 -6 -143
12 Greece 1003 3 50
13 Russia 981 0 6
14 France 980 0 16
15 Chile 961 -4 -33
16 Côte d'Ivoire 939 0 -4
17 Sweden 909 0 -1
18 Czech Republic 854 9 83
19 Mexico 832 0 -57
20 Japan 829 3 7
21 Switzerland 828 0 -40
22 Colombia 814 -2 -66
23 Australia 807 1 -13
24 Norway 780 2 -7
25 Paraguay 772 -3 -61
26 Republic of Ireland 762 -8 -145
27 Ecuador 752 9 59
28 Korea Republic 740 7 21
29 Bosnia-Herzegovina 729 0 -27
30 Hungary 716 1 -19
31 Peru 712 6 24
32 Turkey 708 1 -24
33 Ghana 707 -8 -111
34 Slovenia 706 -4 -36
35 Algeria 693 -3 -41
36 USA 687 -8 -80
37 Serbia 675 -3 -50
38 Wales 658 0 0
39 Egypt 657 9 69
40 Libya 655 2 47
41 Mali 650 2 49
42 Zambia 648 1 47
43 Tunisia 627 3 36
44 Slovakia 626 -5 -23
45 Gabon 624 4 38
46 Ukraine 621 6 49
47 Venezuela 615 -7 1
48 Panama 612 -2 21
49 Scotland 611 -8 0
50 Montenegro 581 0 0
51 Romania 580 1 8
52 Iran 577 -7 -19
53 Belgium 564 1 0
54 Poland 560 8 42
55 Armenia 559 -4 -20
56 Estonia 554 1 26
57 Costa Rica 541 8 34
58 Nigeria 525 2 5
59 Cameroon 520 5 5
60 Austria 517 -2 -7
61 Senegal 506 2 -11
62 Haiti 503 9 13
63 Honduras 496 -8 -54
63 Jamaica 496 -3 -24
65 Sierra Leone 488 -6 -35
65 Uzbekistan 488 1 -15
67 El Salvador 487 -12 -63
68 Finland 480 7 16
69 Canada 474 8 17
69 China PR 474 4 -7
69 South Africa 474 -1 -25
72 Latvia 466 4 7
73 Morocco 455 -3 -36
74 Albania 448 5 -3
74 Guinea 448 -7 -54
76 Belarus 447 -7 -50
77 Benin 446 -5 -43
78 Cape Verde Islands 441 -1 -16
79 Iraq 437 -5 -40
80 Trinidad and Tobago 432 2 7
81 Israel 427 0 0
82 Central African Republic 421 11 55
83 Bolivia 419 27 107
84 Jordan 417 -4 -12
85 Uganda 409 9 46
86 Angola 407 -2 -9
87 Burkina Faso 405 -1 -2
88 Guatemala 401 -3 -11
89 Korea DPR 386 0 11
90 Lithuania 376 -2 -4
91 Congo 375 -8 -47
92 Bulgaria 373 -2 0
93 Kuwait 370 -6 -13
93 Malawi 370 14 46
95 New Zealand 366 5 25
96 Saudi Arabia 359 -4 -10
97 Oman 358 0 9
98 Georgia 357 -3 -2
99 Qatar 356 -8 -16
99 Togo 356 -1 13
101 Zimbabwe 347 5 18
102 Bahrain 346 -7 -13
103 Northern Ireland 336 0 0
104 FYR Macedonia 331 -3 -7
105 Antigua and Barbuda 326 0 -4
106 Sudan 325 -5 -13
107 Azerbaijan 308 5 8
108 Guyana 304 -4 -28
109 Luxembourg 303 12 20
109 Mozambique 303 8 13
111 Equatorial Guinea 302 3 4
112 St. Kitts and Nevis 301 2 3
113 Botswana 296 3 1
114 Congo DR 291 13 34
114 Niger 291 8 12
116 United Arab Emirates 287 3 3
117 Bermuda 281 -8 -37
117 Namibia 281 17 35
119 Ethiopia 273 11 24
120 Liberia 272 4 -5
120 Vietnam 272 -22 -71
122 Cyprus 266 3 0
123 Chad 262 -11 -38
124 Tajikistan 258 5 4
125 Kenya 256 -14 -47
125 Rwanda 256 -6 -28
127 Tanzania 253 12 39
128 Gambia 251 -20 -69
129 Iceland 250 2 2
130 Dominican Republic 247 3 0
131 Belize 242 4 6
132 Sao Tome e Principe 240 -14 -48
132 Suriname 240 -4 -15
132 Syria 240 -6 -23
135 Thailand 235 1 1
136 Burundi 234 -5 -14
137 Turkmenistan 223 1 4
138 Tahiti 214 41 128
139 Moldova 213 1 1
140 Puerto Rico 210 -3 -14
141 Nicaragua 209 0 0
142 Grenada 204 2 -2
143 New Caledonia 200 12 50
144 Lebanon 197 -1 -10
145 Malta 196 2 1
145 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 196 1 0
147 Kazakhstan 195 -6 -14
148 Liechtenstein 177 0 0
149 Cuba 171 -4 -26
150 Bangladesh 160 2 3
151 Philippines 157 -2 -7
152 Indonesia 156 -1 -3
153 Faroe Islands 149 -31 -130
153 Nepal 149 -4 -15
155 Palestine 148 -2 -5
156 Malaysia 139 -2 -12
157 Curacao 138 3 1
157 Singapore 138 0 -5
159 Yemen 134 0 -7
160 Hong Kong 132 -2 -10
161 Fiji 130 0 -3
162 Afghanistan 122 6 8
163 India 121 1 0
164 Aruba 120 1 0
164 Maldives 120 1 0
166 Lesotho 119 4 10
167 Madagascar 115 -4 -13
168 Vanuatu 104 3 1
169 Guinea-Bissau 103 0 -8
170 Barbados 100 8 13
171 Bahamas 99 -9 -33
172 Dominica 95 1 0
173 Samoa 93 -17 -56
174 Solomon Islands 92 9 17
175 Tonga 87 1 -1
176 Chinese Taipei 86 -9 -29
177 US Virgin Islands 85 5 7
178 Cayman Islands 72 7 0
178 Pakistan 72 3 -10
180 Myanmar 67 -6 -27
181 Sri Lanka 64 3 -10
182 Swaziland 63 -3 -23
183 American Samoa 61 3 0
184 Mongolia 55 -8 -33
185 Comoros 54 2 0
186 St. Lucia 52 2 0
187 Papua New Guinea 46 6 12
187 Seychelles 46 2 -2
189 Eritrea 45 1 0
190 Laos 44 -18 -52
191 Somalia 43 0 0
192 Cambodia 40 -17 -53
193 Mauritius 38 -1 1
194 Guam 32 0 0
195 Cook Islands 25 0 -3
196 Djibouti 24 1 1
196 Kyrgyzstan 24 0 0
198 Andorra 15 1 0
199 British Virgin Islands 13 1 0
199 Macau 13 -1 -4
201 Brunei Darussalam 5 1 0
202 Anguilla 4 -1 -5
202 Mauritania 4 1 0
204 Timor-Leste 2 1 0
205 Bhutan 0 -2 -4
205 Montserrat 0 1 0
205 San Marino 0 1 0
205 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 1 0

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17 comments:

  1. LorricJune 25, 2012 at 12:27 AM

    Ha haaa! According to the FIFA site, that 0-0 draw will be just enough to pip Uruguay. So if Spain can get rid of Portugal, and Germany can get rid of Italy, England are going to go 3rd in the World for the first time ever! Ha ha, I can't wait to see the reaction to that, it should be hilarious! C'mon, Spain! C'mon, Germany! I also wonder if Portugal or Italy losing in the final would block them from taking 3rd. I think it would.

    Roy Hodgson, FIFA World Ranking specialist indeed, Edgar.

    ALL HAIL ROY HODGSON! UNDEFEATED AFTER 6 GAMES IN CHARGE! :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MVJune 25, 2012 at 1:43 AM

      ???

      Uruguay 1297, England 1294

      Losing on penalties is x1, not x2...

      Delete
    2. LorricJune 25, 2012 at 2:46 AM

      I made a mistake. Got mixed up with the 1292 on the last ranking. Thanks though.

      It would still be good for England if Italy and Portugal lose to help England get seeded at the World Cup if they qualify.

      And there should still be fun to be had seeing what people say if England rise to 4th.

      Delete
    3. MVJune 25, 2012 at 3:30 AM

      They're demanding England to be kicked out of top10 on twitter. Been defending you (your high ranking) there for an hour after the game :D
      I hate when people badmouth FIFA rankings/anything I'm interested in.
      I also have hopes for Croatia being seeded so we are of the same mind. That and making Croatia look better also made me cheer for Italy tonight. Might have changed during the game if it had been England besieging Italian goal.
      I love English football so I'm really disappointed with England...decided to sacrifice honour (as a nation that invented the game, it is honour at stake) for result, and then ended up not getting it anyway. Hodggson, Lalas, whoever...they're all wrong, there's nothing to be proud of :(

      Delete
    4. LorricJune 25, 2012 at 5:12 AM

      Who is? Show me?

      Well, they're in for a shock whoever they are when England get boosted up the rankings. I think even if both Germany and Spain lose, there's only room for one of Italy and Portugal to go past England.

      They can talk all they want, but the bottom line is competitive matches get you points, and England were undefeated in this entire campaign, that includes qualifiers. Topped their qualifying group and topped their euro group.

      Hey hey hey, honour? England were defending most of the match and didn't collect even one yellow card. Not one dirty foul, not one cynical challenge. All it was was being outclassed because we had an injury-ravaged team.

      Anyway, which ten teams do they deem fit to push England out of the top 10?

      Delete
    5. LorricJune 25, 2012 at 5:20 AM

      England have plenty of honour. Their only "crime" is being inferior. But they still played the right way. With hard work, disciploine and organisation. They didn't cheat. They didn't dive. They didn't feign injury. They didn't try to take legs out. They didn't try to wind up Balotelli or take out Pirlo. They played the game the way it should be played. They were just inferior. Yet still managed to drag the match out to a penalty shootout. They fought to the end.

      Delete
    6. TobcoachJune 25, 2012 at 10:20 AM

      @Lorric: If Portugal defeats Spain without a PSO, they will have 1298 points. A defeat in the final puts them back onto 1247 points. If they win the final without a PSO against Germany, they will climb even more: 1366 pts. A win against Italy would mean 1360 pts.

      And as for Italy: winning without PSO against Germany would mean 1241 pts, winning the finals against Spain would take them to 1312 pts, winning against Portugal would mean 1306 pts.

      If both teams need PSO's to win, you can extract about 42 pts. from their totals. So Portugal can afford 1 PSO en route to winning the finals to snatch 3rd place, Italy cannot afford another PSO.

      Delete
    7. LorricJune 25, 2012 at 1:03 PM

      Thanks Tobcoach. I have another question if you don't mind, if Italy defeated Portugal by penalties in the final, would both stay below England?

      Delete
    8. TobcoachJune 25, 2012 at 3:03 PM

      I don't mind, Lorric :-)

      Yes, they would. If Portugal and Italy reach the final by winning without PSO, and in the final Italy wins with PSO from Portugal, Portugal will have 1285 pts. and Italy 1268 pts.

      Delete
  2. MVJune 25, 2012 at 3:49 PM

    "Who is? Show me?"

    Lots of people. You know how it is with FIFA rankings and laity :D

    "Well, they're in for a shock whoever they are when England get boosted up the rankings."

    They're just going to claim the rankings are meaningless, as they always do. And make fun of FIFA.
    I mean, Uruguay go 2nd, after WC SF and winning the Copa, and verybody's baffled...

    "They can talk all they want, but the bottom line is competitive matches get you points,"

    From what I've seen, people expect the rankings to be a sort of prediction and based on subjective opinion of who "should" be better. Something like that $%&$% transfermarkt evaluation.

    "Hey hey hey, honour? England were defending most of the match and didn't collect even one yellow card. Not one dirty foul, not one cynical challenge. All it was was being outclassed because we had an injury-ravaged team."

    I disagree with this. England should never park the bus. And this is a compliment.
    Injury ravaged??

    "Anyway, which ten teams do they deem fit to push England out of the top 10?"
    Exactly. They never seem to think of this, It's always "How the hell is X in the Xth place?" but never come with better suggestions. Never think of dreadful performance of France and Italy at the WC etc.

    ReplyDelete
  3. MVJune 25, 2012 at 3:52 PM

    "England have plenty of honour. Their only "crime" is being inferior. ..."

    But they're NOT!
    Bad management and the worse media in the world have convinced you (English fans) of that.
    England have Rooney, Gerrard, Cole, all of them undoubtedly absolute world class. And a bunch of other players just right up there. England shouldn't fear anyone, not even Spain - look at how Croatia performed against Spain and Italy. And that's a non EU country of 4 million.

    ReplyDelete
  4. LorricJune 25, 2012 at 7:02 PM

    England were destroyed in midfield, especially the centre.

    We had probably our first choice man in Gerrard, but after that, with Paul Scholes and Michael Carrick retired, and Lampard, Barry, Wilshire and Cleverley all injured we had to use our 8th choice in Parker and rely on at least our 10th choice as a sub in Henderson with Rodwell injured. And this is just off the top of my head, I'm sure I'll have missed someone. I'd even argue we'd have been better off calling back Beckham than Henderson, although the argument of looking to the future rather than the past is relevant. The way things panned out though, we could really have used his creativity. If he had been coming on against Italy instead of Henderson, who knows...

    Lennon would have been great on the wings but he was out.

    Our defence was the least effected, but we lost Gary Cahill to a broken jaw in our last friendly, who had been looking really good. Hodgson also wanted Kyle Walker in Glen Johnson's position, but he was injured. In terms of first team we had some good players, but still had to resort to calling up Martin Kelly. Although it's worth saying Hodgson is known to be fond of the player from his time at Liverpool.

    I don't know if you knew, but Rooney was suspended the first two games, and Darren Bent was injured, just after earning a place in the team. Defoe was brought along, but his dad died right before the tournament.

    We had guys before the tournament who refused to go on the reserve list, thinking they wouldn't get picked, thus weakening the squad even further. Guys like Micah Richards. I say screw those guys anyway, unless they had a good reason beyond not expecting to play.

    And of course we had a manager who had barely had any time with a team that was constantly changing through injury. We had two goalkeepers who are uncapped in reserve. If anything had happened to Hart...

    All the while we had a pathetic media campaign about why Rio Ferdinand had not been chosen with this whole ugly John Terry saga after he was stripped of the captaincy, which just went on and on and on, along with some of the media wishing Harry Redknapp had been chosen over Hodgson and we had to go in under a new captain in Gerrard.

    Frankly I would have been content with 2pts. And happy just to beat someone. So in my estimations, England overachieved, reaching what is normally England's standard - a quarter final exit, but with a much inferior team and real mitigating circumstances on top of that.

    You are Croatian, so you've seen England dismantling your team twice, so I can understand why you'd feel this way, but trust me, we were, in my opinion, correct to play as we did.

    But I know full well we can play "pretty" football. We had a wonderful away game vs Switzerland in the qualifying campaign, one of the best passing exhibitions I've ever seen from England, and dismantled Bulgaria 4-0. For those two games we had everyone fit if I remember right. In fact, through a lot of the campaign we had had strong first teams and strong subs. We had several guys not even making the bench in qualifying walking right into the first team at Euro 2012, people getting their first caps...

    I made a couple of videos on that Switzerland match, you can have a look if you want:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YxQlyU54hl8

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Ggr7KDjXiQ&feature=fvwrel

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MVJune 25, 2012 at 8:23 PM

      Since we were discussing England's lack of possession against Italy, I was wondering about injured midfielders and attackers (for that game, who could have missed the Rooney question? :D).
      And I completely forgot about Wilshere.
      Total game changer.
      One of the rare midfielders that could start for Barca/Spain.

      About the rest, I disagree on Barry. Parker is better at retaining possession.
      Lampard...it still seems England functions better with just Gerrard/Lampard. Cleverly and Rodwell are still too young. Beckham...you're not that desperate, especially since you have the best wingers in the world. I thought the two best - Lennon and A. Johnson - weren't picked, didn't know about their injuries.

      Walker, Bent and Defoe are overrated. Walker would just bump into Lennon's back (or Ox's, Walcott's), like at Spurs, and Bent and Defoe don't bring anything except goals. Sounds great, but for SF you need more. Crouch. He HAD to be there. It's been proven over and over continental defences can't handle him, don't know him like they do in Premiership. He was a fixture during Tottenham's CL campaign.

      And there's the manager issue, of course. That was a travesty. I actually read English press almost daily. :D I preferred Harry. His "do what you want" "tactics" could've been the best solution. That's how Croatia got 3rd in 1998 :D

      "So in my estimations, England overachieved, reaching what is normally England's standard - a quarter final exit, but with a much inferior team and real mitigating circumstances on top of that."

      Yes, but with underachieving in normal circumstances you have to expect overachievement in mitigating circumstances. Cosmic balance...
      That's Croatian way of thinking. :D We're never satisfied.

      I don't think it has anything to do with those two crushing defeats to England. Actually, I don't know any other Croatian (not even through internet) who likes England. Hoofball stereotype, and we prefer the South American style. For me it's the Premiership. Pace, physicality, hard tackling. These things are going to die out it seems (except when Spanish defenders want to tackle Croatians). But every year I find myself wishing for an all-English CL SF. (Yes, even Man Utd)
      To see the reaction THEN! :DDD

      Switzerland game actually shows what I mean. And the Swiss (well, the Kosovars :D) have an excellent generation. I'm expecting a SF from them in the next few tournaments. In Shaqiri, Džemaili and Xhaka they even have players (technical, but also short/agile) who could challenge Spanish possession in a possible encounter.
      Great work on those vids. That must have taken time. I often think of making a highligthts video of some sort, but then I remember I'm Croatian. We detest work, you might have noticed a lack of Croatian immigrants in the UK.

      Delete
  5. appetizerJune 25, 2012 at 11:56 PM

    why football-rankings does not implement a simple program which automatically creates always an updated world ranking?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarJune 29, 2012 at 10:52 AM

      Because I would need hosting and time for such a feature. Remember, this is just a hobby for me - I get no financial reward for my work.

      Delete
    2. amirJune 29, 2012 at 1:35 PM

      Why doesn't FIFA implements one...

      Delete
    3. EdgarJune 29, 2012 at 2:00 PM

      Good question Amir. Why don't you send FIFA an e-mail? :)

      Delete

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