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Friday, July 6, 2012

FIFA Ranking: August 2012 preview

Next update: 3 August 2012.

FIFA will publish the ranking on 8 August.

Only 3 matches left, all friendlies: South Sudan - Uganda, Guam - Macau and Jamaica - Liberia.


These matches won't affect the top 50. Jamaica could be at most 66th.

This is how the points can change for these 6 teams:

L: loss, D: draw, W: win

Jamaica (L: 368, D: 473, W: 483)
Uganda (L: 396, D: 399, W: 405)
Liberia (L: 272, D: 284, W: 308)
Guam (L: 28, D: 35, W: 50)
Macau (L: 13, D: 22, W: 39)
South Sudan (L: 0, D: 20, W: 59)

In the table below, the values displayed for these teams are the minimum values, thus even if they lose, their totals won't drop.

There will be 209 teams in the August ranking, as South Sudan will be ranked for the first time. 

Best movers:

17 - Lebanon
16 - Solomon Islands
14 - Turkmenistan

Worst movers:

-26 - Vietnam
-18 - Haiti
-17 - Bangladesh

Best movers in the top 50:

7 - Ecuador
3 - Scotland
2 - Serbia, Iran and Romania

Worst movers in the top 50:

-15 - Peru
-5 - Panama
-4 - Venezuela

England up to third, as Uruguay's 2011 Copa America points drop from 1.0 to 0.5. That's the best ever ranking for England.

Five teams will improve their best ever ranking:

England (3rd - 4th in December 1997)
Ecuador (20th - 24th in March 2007)
Libya (38th - 39th in July 2012)
Central African Republic (71st - 73rd in July 2012)
American Samoa (182nd - 183rd in July 2012)

Nine teams will fall to new lows:

Brazil (12th - 11th in July 2012)
Israel (83rd - 82nd in July 2012)
Saudi Arabia (105th - 101st in July 2012)
Syria (147th - 145th in May 1996)
Indonesia (158th - 153rd in December 2006)
Singapore (161st - 158th in April 2012)
India (167th - 165th in March 2007)
Myanmar (184th - 180th in July 2012)
Laos (192nd - 190th in June 2008)

August 2012 rank - Team - August 2012 points - +/- Ranking - +/- Points


1 Spain 1605 0 0
2 Germany 1474 0 -28
3 England 1294 1 0
4 Uruguay 1236 -1 -61
5 Portugal 1213 0 0
6 Italy 1192 0 0
7 Argentina 1098 0 3
8 Netherlands 1053 0 -26
9 Croatia 1050 0 0
10 Denmark 1017 0 0
11 Greece 1003 1 0
12 Brazil 991 -1 -21
13 Russia 981 0 0
14 France 980 0 0
15 Chile 953 0 -8
16 Côte d'Ivoire 939 0 0
17 Sweden 909 0 0
18 Mexico 862 1 30
19 Czech Republic 854 -1 0
20 Ecuador 836 7 84
21 Colombia 835 1 21
22 Japan 829 -2 0
23 Switzerland 828 -2 0
24 Australia 807 -1 0
25 Norway 780 -1 0
26 Republic of Ireland 762 0 0
27 Paraguay 747 -2 -25
28 Korea Republic 740 0 0
29 Turkey 735 0 0
30 Bosnia-Herzegovina 729 0 0
31 Hungary 716 0 0
32 Ghana 707 1 0
33 Slovenia 706 1 0
34 Algeria 693 1 0
35 Serbia 675 2 0
36 USA 672 0 -15
37 Wales 658 1 0
38 Libya 655 1 0
39 Mali 650 1 0
40 Zambia 649 1 1
41 Egypt 637 1 6
42 Tunisia 627 1 0
43 Slovakia 626 1 0
44 Gabon 624 1 0
45 Ukraine 621 1 0
46 Scotland 611 3 0
47 Peru 607 -15 -105
48 Iran 590 2 9
49 Montenegro 581 1 0
50 Romania 580 2 0
51 Venezuela 570 -4 -45
52 Belgium 564 1 0
53 Panama 560 -5 -52
53 Poland 560 1 0
55 Armenia 559 0 0
56 Estonia 554 0 0
57 Nigeria 525 1 0
58 Cameroon 520 1 0
59 Austria 517 1 0
60 Senegal 506 1 0
61 Costa Rica 501 -4 -40
62 Uzbekistan 493 3 5
63 El Salvador 490 4 3
64 Sierra Leone 488 1 0
65 Honduras 486 -2 -10
66 Morocco 476 5 5
67 South Africa 474 1 0
68 China PR 470 0 -4
69 Jamaica 468 -6 -28
70 Latvia 466 2 0
71 Central African Republic 462 2 0
72 Finland 458 2 0
73 Bolivia 449 10 30
74 Albania 448 1 0
74 Guinea 448 1 0
76 Belarus 447 1 0
77 Benin 446 1 0
78 Cape Verde Islands 441 1 0
79 Canada 439 -11 -35
80 Haiti 435 -18 -68
80 Trinidad and Tobago 435 0 3
82 Jordan 433 2 16
83 Israel 427 -1 0
84 Iraq 422 -3 -6
85 Angola 407 1 0
86 Burkina Faso 405 1 0
87 Guatemala 399 1 -2
88 Uganda 396 -3 -13
89 Korea DPR 392 0 6
90 Malawi 377 3 7
91 Lithuania 376 -1 0
92 Congo 375 -1 0
92 Oman 375 4 17
94 Bulgaria 373 -2 0
95 New Zealand 366 0 0
96 Kuwait 359 -3 -11
97 Georgia 357 0 0
98 Qatar 354 0 -2
99 Zimbabwe 343 1 -4
100 Togo 342 -2 -14
101 Antigua and Barbuda 337 5 11
102 Northern Ireland 336 0 0
103 Bahrain 331 0 0
103 FYR Macedonia 331 0 0
105 Saudi Arabia 329 -4 -10
105 Sudan 329 0 0
107 Mozambique 316 0 0
108 Azerbaijan 308 0 0
109 Guyana 307 0 3
110 Luxembourg 303 0 0
111 Equatorial Guinea 302 0 0
112 Namibia 298 5 17
112 St. Kitts and Nevis 298 0 -3
114 Botswana 297 -1 1
115 Congo DR 291 -1 0
115 Niger 291 -1 0
117 Chad 284 6 22
117 Dominican Republic 284 13 37
119 Bermuda 281 -2 0
120 United Arab Emirates 279 -4 -8
121 Ethiopia 273 -2 0
122 Liberia 272 -2 0
123 Cyprus 266 -1 0
123 Turkmenistan 266 14 43
125 Rwanda 264 0 8
126 Kenya 256 -1 0
127 Lebanon 254 17 57
128 Tanzania 253 -1 0
129 Gambia 251 -1 0
130 Iceland 250 -1 0
131 Sao Tome e Principe 240 1 0
131 Suriname 240 1 0
133 Belize 236 -2 -6
134 Burundi 234 2 0
134 Thailand 234 1 -1
136 Tahiti 214 2 0
137 Moldova 213 2 0
138 Puerto Rico 210 2 0
139 Nicaragua 203 2 -6
140 Tajikistan 202 -16 -56
141 New Caledonia 200 2 0
142 Grenada 198 0 -6
143 Malta 196 2 0
143 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 196 2 0
145 Kazakhstan 195 2 0
146 Vietnam 183 -26 -89
147 Syria 180 -15 -60
148 Liechtenstein 177 1 0
149 Cuba 171 1 0
150 Philippines 167 2 10
151 Yemen 154 -3 -25
152 Palestine 153 2 -1
153 Faroe Islands 149 2 0
154 Hong Kong 147 6 15
155 Fiji 146 6 16
156 Vanuatu 142 12 38
157 Malaysia 134 0 -5
158 Indonesia 128 -5 -28
158 Solomon Islands 128 16 36
160 Maldives 126 4 6
161 Nepal 125 -6 -24
161 Singapore 125 -3 -13
163 Afghanistan 122 -1 0
163 Curacao 122 -5 -16
165 Lesotho 117 1 -2
166 Madagascar 114 1 -1
167 India 106 -4 -15
168 Bangladesh 103 -17 -57
168 Guinea-Bissau 103 1 0
170 Barbados 100 0 0
171 Dominica 95 1 0
172 Samoa 93 1 0
173 Tonga 87 2 0
174 Chinese Taipei 83 2 -3
175 Cayman Islands 72 3 0
175 Pakistan 72 3 0
177 Aruba 71 -13 -49
178 US Virgin Islands 70 -1 -15
179 Sri Lanka 68 2 4
180 Bahamas 66 -9 -33
181 Swaziland 64 1 1
182 American Samoa 61 1 0
183 Mongolia 55 1 0
184 Myanmar 50 -4 -17
185 Papua New Guinea 46 2 0
186 Eritrea 45 3 0
186 St. Lucia 45 0 -7
188 Seychelles 44 -1 -2
189 Somalia 43 2 0
190 Cambodia 40 2 0
191 Comoros 39 -6 -15
192 Laos 38 -2 -6
192 Mauritius 38 1 0
194 Guam 28 0 -4
195 Cook Islands 25 0 0
195 Kyrgyzstan 25 1 1
197 Djibouti 24 -1 0
198 Andorra 15 0 0
199 British Virgin Islands 13 0 0
199 Macau 13 0 0
201 Brunei Darussalam 5 0 0
202 Anguilla 4 0 0
202 Mauritania 4 0 0
204 Timor-Leste 2 0 0
205 Bhutan 0 0 0
205 Montserrat 0 0 0
205 San Marino 0 0 0
205 South Sudan 0 4 0
205 Turks and Caicos Islands 0 0 0

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38 comments:

  1. AnonymousJuly 6, 2012 at 11:17 AM

    You missed Iraq - Saudi Arabia and Libya - Morocco frienlies in the Arab Nations Cup

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarJuly 6, 2012 at 11:20 AM

      Iraq - Saudi Arabia is not on FIFA.com (don't know the reason).

      Libya's matches at the Arab Nations Cup are not "A" matches.

      Delete
  2. TobcoachJuly 6, 2012 at 12:32 PM

    Edgar, why Spain still on 1691 points? I have them on 1605 points:

    Year 1: 815,39 pts.
    Year 2: 302,27 pts.
    Year 3: 326,82 pts.
    Year 4: 160,04 pts.
    Total: 1604,52 = 1605 pts.

    Timeframes are still correct?
    Year 1: Aug 9, 2011 - Aug 7, 2012
    Year 2: Aug 9, 2010 - Aug 8, 2011
    Year 3: Aug 9, 2009 - Aug 8, 2010
    Year 4: Aug 9, 2008 - Aug 8, 2009

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarJuly 6, 2012 at 12:37 PM

      There was a problem with a reference in the Excel file I use for formatting the output before posting it here.

      It was only for Spain though.

      Delete
  3. LorricJuly 6, 2012 at 1:04 PM

    What are England's prospects for holding onto that third place in the future? Does anyone know? I do hope it'll last. At least longer than a single month.

    Of course, as long as England maintain a top 7 position, for a seeding at the 2014 World Cup should they qualify, I'll be more than happy.

    ReplyDelete
  4. EdJuly 6, 2012 at 3:39 PM

    Lorric,

    in august some friendlies will be played which count for the september-ranking: England-Italy and France-Uruguay.
    If England draws and Uruguay wins the south americans will overtake England. A win against Italy leaves England on the third spot for at least another month.
    In september world cup qualifiers are on the menu, games with a lot of points to be won or lost. So then it's anybody's guess.

    ReplyDelete
  5. TobcoachJuly 6, 2012 at 4:13 PM

    Lorric,

    The danger is not only coming from Uruguay, also Portugal stands a chance to be 3rd in the September rankings. Portugal has not scheduled a friendly match in the mid-August frame, so the points of Portugal for the September rankings can be calculated already: 1254.

    England will have 1274 if they win against Italy, 1242 if they draw and 1226 if they lose.
    Uruguay will have 1258 points if they win against France, 1217 if they draw and 1196 if they lose.

    England needs to win to remain 3rd, or else Portugal and maybe even Uruguay will pass them again.

    ReplyDelete
  6. LorricJuly 6, 2012 at 7:57 PM

    Thanks both of you.

    Interesting that Italy hasn't come into it. If Italy manage to win that match and still be below England, that's really going to fry some people's brains! :)

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousJuly 6, 2012 at 9:21 PM

    July 13th Aruba vs Curaçao (ABCS Tournament). Suriname will be playing Bonaire (not a FIFA member). On July 15th Losers against each other for 4/4 place and winners will play the final. If Surinam wins they will play the winner of the Aruba/Curaçao match. If Suriname loses they will play the loser of the Aruba/ Curaçao match. Very interesting for Aruba, since they are losing 50% of the points they got against St. Lucia last year in July (WC-preliminaries). If Aruba wins against Curaçao en after that also wins against Surinam,they will maintain their ranking or even improve a bit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdgarJuly 13, 2012 at 7:53 AM

      Thanks! Now on FIFA.com too.

      Delete
    2. RandolfJuly 15, 2012 at 7:36 PM

      This evening Aruba vs Suriname for the finals of the ABCS Tournament (not posted on the FIFA website yet).

      Delete
    3. RandolfJuly 16, 2012 at 5:55 AM

      Aruba - Suriname 1 - 0

      Delete
  8. EdJuly 6, 2012 at 10:36 PM

    Tobcoach, you're right. I also think Portugal is the bigger threat to England.

    Italy will have 1216 points if they manage a win in Berne, so then they will at last be nearly on equal terms with England.

    And Lorric, I have to say, you're quite obsessed with all the english 'astonishment' about the, in their eyes overrated, position of England in the rankings ;-)
    Just enjoy the facts and think better of all the nitwits with their gut feelings (and fried brains).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. LorricJuly 7, 2012 at 2:00 PM

      Actually I was pleasantly surprised by the amount of intelligence I found on my little search through the internet this time, though the intelligent ones were still significantly outnumbered. I also tried looking on forums of specific football clubs as well as comments sections in online news, and found there's more intelligence to be found in the football forums. Every single one I visited had an "England 4th in the World" topic front and centre.

      I wouldn't say I'm obsessed, but it does both annoy and amuse me. I'm not obsessed, but I'm not far off from being obsessed :)

      I guess it just makes me sad that my team doesn't get the respect it deserves, while other teams get too much respect and admiration. If I had the talent, I wouldn't want to play for these ingrates with their goldfish memories.

      Delete
    2. EdJuly 7, 2012 at 6:52 PM

      Kind of like happened with the Netherlands. They came very far in South Africa with 'undutch-like' rather defensive play and didn't get too much respect for that around here (I am Dutch).
      Well, we have all seen how they 'performed' in the Ukraine.

      I would say: enjoy it while you can and respect it always, because it is quite special to perform on a consistent high level with attractive play for very long (as Spain is doing superbly right now).

      Delete
    3. LorricJuly 7, 2012 at 7:26 PM

      Look, the cat's out of the bag already:

      http://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/england-going-third-in-fifa-rankings-1135459

      I was thinking to myself how would the media have reacted if England were Italy? I can see it now, something like this...

      Spain Expose True Level of England

      After a poor group stage in which England barely scraped past Croatia, a clear sign of regression considering how easily England handled Croatia last qualifying cycle, England's ineptitude was further displayed in their inability to break down a poor side in the quarter finals, and the fact England finally got that elusive win on penalties doesn't change what happened in the 90 minutes. A pathetic display which saw chance after chance after chance squandered and masses of possession completely wasted. A clear indicator of the lack of technical ability and creativity in the England squad. England's betters would surely break such a side down quite easily. A win over Germany was celebrated with great enthusiasm, but there were rumblings that it was down to Germany's ineptitude rather than England's strength that saw England through, and Spain proved that in the final, with a ruthless efficiency which exposed just how technically bereft England are and how lucky England were to even get to the final.

      *Insert several paragraphs of orgasms over Spain and bashing England here*

      As for me, I actually admired the way the Dutch played at the World Cup. They might not have lit the World on fire, but I thought they were the better team in every victory.

      Delete
    4. EdJuly 7, 2012 at 10:14 PM

      Nice one! I kind of liked this comment in the article:

      "there needs to be some serious thought as to how they calculate who should be where. i'm not into rubbishing england but i do think that there needs to be more objectivity and sophistication."

      How could this ranking become more objective ? It's based on a well-known formula for crying out loud !
      It uses match-results and a priori principles of calculation that are known. I don't know how that could become even more objective.

      Delete
    5. LorricJuly 8, 2012 at 4:44 AM

      There's always people who for some reason think the methodology is a secret. And more who think this is FIFA trying to sweeten up England after the World Cup 2018 debacle, or that England have paid FIFA off, or that it's done to make money because of England's strong crowds, so they keep England artificially high.

      What annoys me most is some of the teams people put ahead of England. France isn't so bad even though England have outperformed them at every turn, because France usually triumph in a match vs England, but I've seen Russia thrown around a lot which I simply can't comprehend. That the English inferiority complex is so bad that people think Russia is better, a team which didn't even make it to the World Cup and couldn't get out of the weakest group at Euro 2012. What on Earth could make them think Russia is better?! I'm more at ease with African nations and Mexico being thrown into people's lists than Russia. Only just with mexico, now there's a team which gets to go to the World Cup every edition, and never gets beyond the 2nd round, and England beat Mexico the last time they played, in a friendly before the World Cup. How on Earth can they pick Mexico? At least the likes of Ghana and Ivory Coast, Ghana did well at the World Cup and played England to a draw at Wembley and Ivory Coast are loaded with quality players.

      Delete
    6. EdJuly 8, 2012 at 11:55 AM

      Lorric, maybe this small statistic will cheer you up...

      I have looked at all the FIFA-rankings since August 1993 and calculated the average, minimum and maximum position of each team over the 215 rankings published. Here's the top 20:
      nr team confed avg min max
      1 BRA CONM 1.94 1 11
      2 ESP UEFA 5.11 1 25
      3 GER UEFA 6.09 1 22
      4 ARG CONM 6.35 1 24
      5 NED UEFA 7.17 1 25
      6 ITA UEFA 7.27 1 16
      7 FRA UEFA 7.39 1 27
      8 ENG UEFA 10.24 4 27
      9 CZE UEFA 12.46 2 47
      10 POR UEFA 13.04 3 43
      11 MEX CONC 13.47 4 33
      12 DEN UEFA 17.37 3 38
      13 USA CONC 18.82 4 36
      14 SWE UEFA 19.49 2 43
      15 RUS UEFA 19.67 3 40
      16 ROM UEFA 21.64 3 57
      17 CRO UEFA 23.67 3 125
      18 NOR UEFA 23.69 2 59
      19 COL CONM 25.01 4 54
      20 URU CONM 26.90 2 76

      England is on spot 8 in this list with only the usual suspects (world champions or nearly ones) above them. I'd say they are an established, consistent power in world football of the last twenty years and deserve to be where they are right now in the rankings (not only objectively but certainly also subjectively speaking).

      Delete
    7. LorricJuly 8, 2012 at 1:58 PM

      That is, in terms of England's position, exactly where I'd have expected them to be. Over the course of history, England have been the weakest of the "elite" teams, but stronger than everyone else. Look at Brazil's average. How many more cups will Spain need to win to take first?! Surprised at the placement of some of the other top 7 teams.

      Portugal of course have a lot of years of being a 2nd tier team in that ranking, so that's why England are above them. And the Czechs were in their place, at times the Czechs were legitimately among the elite, but no more.

      However, even though England's placing doesn't surprise me, this still involves a lot of years of the really bad system they used. But still, since US and Mexico aren't coming between the elite teams, I guess it's a good comparison to use.

      Thanks. Most interesting. 8th is nearly as good as 1st if that was the ranking for all future draws, England would be sitting pretty, as they'd grab the last seeding at the World Cup, be top seeded at all qualifying competitions, and with France hosting Euro 2016, England would grab the last top seed there too. And also if this idea tohave Euro 2020 contested all around Europe takes off, it would be good for a top seed again with no true host.

      The only problem would be Russia and Qatar taking England's seed at the next World Cups.

      Delete
    8. SteveJuly 12, 2012 at 9:34 PM

      This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  9. AnonymousJuly 7, 2012 at 10:01 AM

    why Vietnam go down a lot of place two consecutive months??
    (July down 22 place and August down 26 place)
    It's really shock, any explain??
    And when Vietnam will up place in FIFA Ranking>

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdJuly 7, 2012 at 6:32 PM

      For the July ranking the high valued WC qualifying matches against Macau (june/july 2011, both good for 322 match-points) drop to the second timeframe and get half their weight. Vietnam loses almost 70 FIFA-points because of that.

      For the August ranking the highest valued match for Vietnam of the last four years (the win over Qatar in the second qualifying round WC 2014, good for 715 match-points) also drops to the second timeframe. Vietnam loses another 90 FIFA-points because of that.

      The opportunities for Vietnam to play such important high-valued matches in the near future are limited as they are eliminated in WC qualifying. They have to do well in the South East Asian Championships 2012 or in AFC Nations Cup 2015 Qualifying in order to get some new points under their belt.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousJuly 8, 2012 at 11:01 AM

      And how many points Vietnam will have in the FIFA ranking (September)??

      Delete
    3. EdJuly 8, 2012 at 11:20 AM

      In september Vietnam will lose zero points and will have the same 183 points as in August :)

      Delete
    4. AnonymousJuly 8, 2012 at 3:10 PM

      ouhh, thank for answer guy !!!
      in June 2012, we beat Hong Kong 2-1 and beat Mozambique 1-0, points of the two games have been added??

      Delete
    5. EdJuly 8, 2012 at 9:18 PM

      Yes, the points for these wins are included. But because these matches were only friendlies they give Vietnam not a lot of match-points, for Hong Kong 129 pts and for Mozambique 214 pts.
      But still, it's better than nothing.

      Delete
  10. AnonymousJuly 8, 2012 at 3:22 PM

    How about my country Thailand in September ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdJuly 8, 2012 at 9:26 PM

      Thailand jumps from 234 points in August to 244 points in September. Without playing a game, just because of the devaluation of (obviously under-average) past results.

      Delete
  11. Kuka MJuly 10, 2012 at 1:07 PM

    I wonder how big is the "host" effect for Brazil?

    If Brazil had taken part in the current World Cup qualifiers, and done as well as they usually do, they would surely have more points. They finished 9W-7D-2L last time, so maybe 3-1-1 is a good guess of what they'd got from the 5 rounds played so far.

    However, then they would also have played fewer friendlies, but given the weightings, presumably they'd have more points by now.

    ReplyDelete
  12. SteveJuly 12, 2012 at 9:35 PM

    If I am understanding the FIFA rankings correctly, the yearly points are calculated by the points gained during the year divided by the number of the games played in the year, where the minimum number of games is eight.

    This means that teams that don't play at least eight matches are penalized (e.g. most of the Oceania teams).

    Lets consider a team like New Zealand. In a year when they only four matches, they would be better off by playing an additional four of which they lose three and draw one.

    So potentially, they could slightly improve their ranking by drawing with Tonga and losing to American Samoa, Cook Islands and Samoa. That seems wrong.

    Another problem is that a 0-0 draw at home to Tonga is worth more than a 4-3 loss to Spain, while a 7-0 loss to Tonga is worth the same as a 4-3 loss to Spain.

    ReplyDelete
  13. EdgarJuly 13, 2012 at 7:56 AM

    @Tobcoach, @Ed - thanks for the help!

    ReplyDelete
  14. EdgarJuly 13, 2012 at 7:59 AM

    @Steve

    It's a minimum of 5 games / time frame, not 8.

    ReplyDelete
  15. RandolfJuly 17, 2012 at 2:12 AM

    FIFA's website now has Aruba with 134 points, so they will break the nr. 160 barrier ( I know we are not talking about England, Holland or Brazil), but for me this would be great news !!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. EdJuly 17, 2012 at 9:21 AM

      Randolf,

      Aruba will score an all-time high in August: 157th with 134 points. Their old record was 164th, first achieved in February 1994 and also the current position of Aruba in the rankings.

      Great win over Surinam on home-ground in the final of the ABCS-tournament. Congratulations !

      Delete
    2. RandolfJuly 19, 2012 at 4:20 AM

      Thank you

      Delete
  16. AnonymousAugust 4, 2012 at 8:04 PM

    Spain should have less points than that....

    ReplyDelete

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