EURO 2016 pots: How many points does my team need?

A Romanian journalist asked me two weeks ago how many wins does Romania need to climb in the second pot for the EURO 2016 qualifying draw.

Taking the EURO 2012 pots as a guide line (removing France and adding Poland and Ukraine), these are the thresholds:

Pot 1: 31268
Pot 2: 28133
Pot 3: 24381
Pot 4: 19409
Pot 5: 14730




These are the calculations for Romania:

The coefficient needed for the 2014 cycle: (28133 * 5 - (217012 / 10) - (242013 / 10) * 2) / 2 = 35280.6 points.

No play-off scenario: 10 games: (35280.6 * 10 - 132008 - 60000) / 10000 = 16.0798 points (on the field as 3/1/0), rounded up to 17 points from 6 games.

Play-off scenario: 12 games: (35280.6 * 12 - 132008 - 80000 - 12000) / 10000 = 19.93592, rounded up to 20 points from 8 games.

Order of columns:

Rank
Team
Points needed to climb to the next pot (or maintain pot 1 status) in a no play-off scenario.
Points per game needed in a no play-off scenario
Points needed to climb to the next pot (or maintain pot 1 status) in a play-off scenario.
Points per game needed in a play-off scenario

1	Spain	-9	-1.8	-10	-1.43	1
2	Germany	-7	-1.17	-7	-0.88	1
3	Netherlands	-2	-0.33	-1	-0.13	1
4	Italy	3	0.5	4	0.5	1
5	England	6	1	8	1	1
6	Russia	7	1.17	9	1.13	1
7	Portugal	9	1.5	11	1.38	1
8	Greece	10	1.67	13	1.63	1
9	Croatia	10	1.67	13	1.63	1
10	Sweden	14	2	17	1.89	2
11	Bosnia-Herzegovina	16	2.67	20	2.5	2
12	Hungary	17	2.83	21	2.63	2
13	Czech Republic	18	2.57	22	2.44	2
14	Denmark	19	2.71	22	2.44	2
15	Switzerland	19	3.17	24	3	2
16	Republic of Ireland	20	2.86	24	2.67	2
17	Norway	20	3.33	24	3	2
18	Slovakia	21	3.5	26	3.25	2
19	Israel	14	2.33	17	2.13	3
20	Ukraine	14	2	16	1.78	3
21	Belgium	15	2.5	19	2.38	3
22	Serbia	16	2.67	19	2.38	3
23	Romania	17	2.83	20	2.5	3
24	Montenegro	18	3	22	2.75	3
25	Slovenia	19	3.17	22	2.75	3
26	Turkey	19	3.17	23	2.88	3
27	Belarus	18	4.5	22	3.67	3
28	Austria	13	1.86	16	1.78	4
29	Poland	13	1.86	16	1.78	4
30	Latvia	14	2.33	16	2	4
31	Armenia	14	2	16	1.78	4
32	Scotland	15	2.5	17	2.13	4
33	Estonia	15	2.5	17	2.13	4
34	Finland	13	2.17	15	1.88	4
35	Wales	17	2.83	20	2.5	4
36	Northern Ireland	17	2.83	20	2.5	4
37	Bulgaria	5	0.83	6	0.75	5
38	Albania	6	1	7	0.88	5
39	Georgia	7	1.75	8	1.33	5
40	FYR Macedonia	8	1.33	9	1.13	5
41	Lithuania	9	1.5	10	1.25	5
42	Moldova	10	1.67	12	1.5	5
43	Iceland	11	1.83	13	1.63	5
44	Azerbaijan	14	2.33	16	2	5
45	Cyprus	15	2.5	17	2.13	5
46	Kazakhstan	6	1	6	0.75	6
47	Luxembourg	7	1.17	7	0.88	6
48	Faroe Islands	8	1.14	8	0.89	6
49	Liechtenstein	8	1.33	9	1.13	6
50	Malta	13	1.86	14	1.56	6
51	Andorra	15	2.5	17	2.13	6
52	San Marino	17	2.83	19	2.38	6

Points needed for Spain, Germany and Netherlands are negative - meaning they are assured to be in pot 1 going by EURO 2012 thresholds.

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About me:

Christian, husband, father x 3, programmer, Romanian. Started the blog in March 2007. Quit in April 2018. You can find me on LinkedIn.